The "I Was Dead Wrong About"... Thread.

[Illuminaire]

I always, always, always thought Arenas was going to turn the corner and recover from his injuries. Even now, I'm waiting for him to sign somewhere and start dropping 30 a night.

[Ed Wood]

I think it's important to recognize the difference between a reasonable conclusion based on the available evidence at the time that was later proven incorrect and a conclusion that even at the time wasn't really that sensible. A lot of the stuff thus far, and most of the mistakes that I also participated in, are much more the former.

I also would have drafted Greg Oden first overall in the 2007 draft, but I think that was an entirely reasonable and defensible decision at the time. Oden was huge, very athletic, and young, and had just had a really phenomenal season at Ohio State mostly playing with one hand. He had been injured but I don't believe any of his injuries to that point were related to the knee issues that have capsized his career. You don't conclude that a player is injury-prone because he broke his hand. And when he's actually played in the NBA he's been really excellent: good scorer, superlative rebounder, defensive force. Turnovers have been his only on-court issue.

The Kwame thing was similarly defensible at the time. Kwame finished his junior campaign with an above average PER, a decent oRTG and was able to both increase his scoring volume significantly and to improve his efficiency substantially. He was only twenty one and a top draft pick, at least some optimism was warranted.

About Brendan, he was if not a really good center he was still easily the team's best center and such a consistent positive impact on the team defensively that your major point, Nate, was that he needed to be playing and that the team was determined to continue to treat Etan Thomas like an player of equivalent quality was moronic. It was.

Anyway, let me go ahead and admit to one that actually wasn't very reasonable at the time and has become increasingly so since: I really did not like Kevin Love during his first couple of seasons in the NBA. I couldn't really provide concrete evidence of his failings so I mostly fell back on a combination of his lukewarm defense (which was a fair critique, but hardly cause to ignore the multitude of good qualities) and "intangibles" which is to say the free pass you get to dislike a guy for no good reason in sports. Anyway he has continued to get better and better and is now undeniably a top player in the NBA and I admit, I was really goddamn wrong.

[tontoz]

I was a believer in Blatche until this year. I also still think he'll be successful in the NBA yet, but it won't be in DC.

How about the Arenas trade? Wall's "regression"?

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

The year Kwame came out, there were just too many HS guys getting buzz. Kwame, Tyson Chandler, Eddy Curry, DeSagana Diop, and another kid I actually liked a lot that year, Ousmane Cisse. I kept thinking it's pretty ludicrous to ignore what Battier has done at Duke over the years and how well Zach Randolph played in Michigan State's title run. I felt the HS kids would be years away. I did buy some of the hype on Kwame, but I wanted MJ to trade that pick for the safer thing: two solid NCAA guys (I think I mentioned I liked Troy Murphy also). I didn't have faith in HSers due to some bias, admittedly.

****Just remembered this kind of thinking led to something else I was wrong about:

--I thought the Magic should have drafted/acquired Emeka Okafor because he was NCAA POY for a championship team. I would have passed on Dwight Howard in favor of Emeka Okafor.

Disclaimer: If I had the top pick and others valued Howard more, I would have drafted Howard and traded down to select Okafor plus a future pick. Still wouldn't have made up for a huge mistake on my part passing Dwight.

[Nivek]

When Kwame came out, I wanted the Wiz to trade Rip Hamilton and the pick for Brand and the 4. And then take Battier.

[Severn Hoos]

Great thread!

My first flameout was also my most glorious - and remains so to this day. I just KNEW Randolph Childress would be a stud in the NBA. In his Senior year, he averaged over 20 PPG, over 5 Assists, and was the heart of the team (with Tim Duncan as a Sophomore) that was ACC Champs, and could have gone farther but were stuffed by Big Country in the Sweet 16.

In that ACC Tournament, he scored 37 points, had 7 assists, hit the winning shot in OT, won the Tourney MVP, and had what I still think is the best moment in ACCT history:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sRJMsoIptQo&feature=related[/youtube]

Unfortunately, his NBA career lasted all of 51 games over two seasons, and he never lived up to that One Shining Moment from the ACCT.

but oh how I love to watch that clip. Over and over and over and over and....

[7-Day Dray]

I loved the AB extension

I was convinced Dray was going to come into this year motivated and in-shape after all the heat he took last year.

I though Nick Young should've been resigned to a long-term deal

[Zonkerbl]

I admit to liking the 5th pick trade for vets. All in baby!

I don't think I hold really strong basketball opinions. It's been awhile since I've watched enough basketball to feel I know anything about anybody.

I strongly believed that Arenas was done -- done! And I was right about that. And I strongly believe you shouldn't boo your own players on your home court. But that's neither here nor there.

[keynote]

two words:

Yinka Dare.

Sent from my Galaxy Nexus using Tapatalk

[Joe_Wiz]

Dear Lord, I thought Courtney Freakin' Alexander had promise, so I can't even begin to list all of the things I was dead wrong about, but I'll mention a few of the more recent ones:

Though my expectations of Arenas did adjust somewhat to changing events, they remained WAY to high up until he had played a dozen or so games with the Magic.

I only gave up on Nick Young recently.

I'm still clinging to hope on Blatche.

Oh, and then there's my prediction about this season's record . . .

[Jay81]

I thought Ted would of fired Ernie by now:(

[fishercob]

Everything

Fixed.

[Jay81]

here are some guys who i thought would be great NBA players...im really dating myself

Fennis Dembo
Hank Gathers
Tony White(he was a SG from Tennesse back in the 80's lol)
Greg Oden
Billy Owens

[gesa2]

I loved all of these:
Rasheed for Strickland
Ben Wallace for Ike Austin
Kevin Duckworth
5th pick for Randy Foye and Mike Miller
The Juwan Howard contract

[fishercob]

here are some guys who i thought would be great NBA players...im really dating myself

Fennis Dembo
Hank Gathers
Tony White(he was a SG from Tennesse back in the 80's lol)
Greg Oden
Billy Owens

Can't blame yourself for Gathers and Oden.

Fennis Dembo definitely is a first-team all name team guy. Dallas Comegys too.

[hands11]

I was so very wrong on Kwame. I thought he was turning the corner in his 3rd season and would become an exceptional defender and at least an average offensive player.

I was a little late in giving up on Blatche. I was fooled for too long.

Other than that, I've mostly been guilty of simply being a bit too optimistic about all of our players. I considered NIck a legit starter rather than a 6th man type. I considered Haywood an average or slightly above-average starting center when he is probably a bit below average.

I dont think being optimistic is being dead wrong. Its being a fan of your team and hoping things work out.

Seems being dead wrong would be more like saying, draft player X over Y and X ends up being an All Star and Y is a bench player.

[hands11]

I loved the AB extension

I was convinced Dray was going to come into this year motivated and in-shape after all the heat he took last year.

I though Nick Young should've been resigned to a long-term deal

I wouldn't say I was convinced, but I was sure hoping. It seemed like a complete no brainer.

[hands11]

Everything

Fixed.

oh man. That wasnt right.

[JonathanJoseph]

I was a believer in Blatche until this year. I also still think he'll be successful in the NBA yet, but it won't be in DC.

How about the Arenas trade? Wall's "regression"?

I wasn't wrong about either.

[JonathanJoseph]

I thought Ted would of fired Ernie by now:(

Grunfeld was always going to get to stay til the end of his contract. I'd be very surprised if Grunfelds contract is renewed.