Official Trade Thread XVIII: 1/20/12 - 5/14/12

Post #1241 » by **nate33** » Sat Mar 10, 2012 2:44 am

fishercob wrote:Gesa, you make a compelling argument. But there's the issue of opportunity cost. Cap space is the currency of the NBA -- even moreso in this new CBA. I don't want to miss out on an opportunity to add a real impact player because Bogut is in street clothes costing us $12M.

Somebody has to play center. We're either going to pay McGee, Bogut, or somebody like Spencer Hawes a good chunk of money to man the 5 spot. I don't see this move as a significant opportunity cost.

Even with Bogut on the roster, we'll have about $18M in cap room assuming Lewis is amnestied.

TGW · Post #1242 » by **TGW** » Sat Mar 10, 2012 2:47 am

I just looked at Bogut's player profile page on Yahoo:

"Injury Note on Jan 25, 2012 (Fractured left ankle - out 8-12 weeks)"

Get used to seeing that if he becomes a Wizard.

fishercob · Post #1243 » by **fishercob** » Sat Mar 10, 2012 3:01 am

nate33 wrote:
fishercob wrote:Gesa, you make a compelling argument. But there's the issue of opportunity cost. Cap space is the currency of the NBA -- even moreso in this new CBA. I don't want to miss out on an opportunity to add a real impact player because Bogut is in street clothes costing us $12M.

Somebody has to play center. We're either going to pay McGee, Bogut, or somebody like Spencer Hawes a good chunk of money to man the 5 spot. I don't see this move as a significant opportunity cost.

Even with Bogut on the roster, we'll have about $18M in cap room assuming Lewis is amnestied.

$18M in cap room isn't that much considering the number of holes we have to fill over the next few years. I don't want to amnesty Lewis either. We're better off amnestying Blatche. I'd rather pay a cheaper stopgap like Turiaf.

There's also no guarantee that McGee gets an offer sheet that we don't want to match. Howard, Brook Lopez, Asik, Hibbert, Kaman, Hawes, Nazy Mohammed, Camby, Stiemsma, RObin Lopez will all be as or more available than Mcgee. McGee may not get the big offer he wants and take the QO from us.

It's not Bogut @ $12M or nothing. We have options and are in no rush. It's going to take time to build this thing right.

Chocolate City Jordanaire · Post #1244 » by **Chocolate City Jordanaire** » Sat Mar 10, 2012 3:03 am

I recently read a metric on a stat geek site that provides a very sophisticated way to objectify players that goes far beyond +/-, PER, WS, or efficiency.

(If you want to read about it, check the stats thread.)

Behind Booker and only recently Wall, Javale McGee has been the Wizard's third best player.

There is probably nothing the Wizards are going to get from Milwaukee but a horrible deal. Ernie is an idiot if he wants Bogut from McGee.

Geez, he'd be better off bringing Brendan back.

dangermouse · Post #1245 » by **dangermouse** » Sat Mar 10, 2012 3:23 am

Bogut + something for Josh Smith probably makes more sense for both teams.

fishercob · Post #1246 » by **fishercob** » Sat Mar 10, 2012 3:25 am

dangermouse wrote:Bogut + something for Josh Smith probably makes more sense for both teams.

Bogut+Sjax for Smith+Zaza. Who says no?

truwizfan4evr · Post #1247 » by **truwizfan4evr** » Sat Mar 10, 2012 3:49 am

fishercob wrote:
dangermouse wrote:Bogut + something for Josh Smith probably makes more sense for both teams.

Bogut+Sjax for Smith+Zaza. Who says no?

Maybe but what good would it do for AtL right now? They are in the playoff and wont have any clue if he will stay healthy during there playoff run that's more of a offseason move i would think.

gesa2 · Post #1248 » by **gesa2** » Sat Mar 10, 2012 3:57 am

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:I recently read a metric on a stat geek site that provides a very sophisticated way to objectify players that goes far beyond +/-, PER, WS, or efficiency.

(If you want to read about it, check the stats thread.)

Behind Booker and only recently Wall, Javale McGee has been the Wizard's third best player.

There is probably nothing the Wizards are going to get from Milwaukee but a horrible deal. Ernie is an idiot if he wants Bogut from McGee.

Geez, he'd be better off bringing Brendan back.

Too bad they don't have any data using the new metric from previous years, CCJ. Looking at the site, I can see why you like it so much -- it loves Faried!

Going by WinShares, Bogut and McGee were almost the same last year - 5.4 WS for Bogut, 5.3 for McGee. But almost all of Bogut's score came on the defensive end, while McGee was about half offense half D. (Bogut's split makes sense, he was still recovering from his elbow injury, and may never be what he was a few years ago)

But comparing the 2 only really makes sense if we're planning on keeping McGee if we don't make the trade. For me, the WTF plays he gives us have an effect that's beyond stats - they hurt morale and make the team look like it's a joke. I think we need to change the culture, and it's better to trade McGee for something now than to let him go as a free agent. You've been saying yourself that he needed to go CCJ, have you changed your mind?

WizarDynasty · Post #1249 » by **WizarDynasty** » Sat Mar 10, 2012 4:07 am

after further thought, think we jump on that trade for Bogut. Javale is a great talent and we are basically cashing in 18th pick just as Celtics cashed in Jeff Green for Ray Allen.
Bogut has requested a trade and the Bucks have already drafted players that are similar to McGee. McGee would do well with a hardline coach like Scott Skiles. Bogut provides 100 times more leadership and court confidence than McGee and would definitely bring more toughness that we need at center. We aren't going to win a championship next year but Bogut definitely improves the IQ of the team he is stabilizing force out on the court with Wall.
I think we hurry up and do this trade and turn the page here in washington. Transforming an 18th pick into Bogut is a solid investment. We aren't going to get an established post presence through free agency. Leonsis get the deal done, but only after having multiple world reknown doctors look at Bogut's ankle.
Elbow and wrist was a fluke, but fracturing your ankle is career ending and can easily reduce bogut to a shell of himself. If that is the case, I am betting on the guy who hasn't had a significant injury his entire career and is showing higher and higher bbiq awareness each game with a great work ethic.

80sballboy · Post #1250 » by **80sballboy** » Sat Mar 10, 2012 5:59 am

Say no to Bogut. Sorry, don't want an injury-plagued center on the way down. I do like the fact as I've mentioned in the past to dangle Javale as a piece to trade to dump Blatche. But not for Bogut and is injury issues.

paul · Post #1251 » by **paul** » Sat Mar 10, 2012 6:00 am

Guys not being a dick here but there's no way in hell the Bucks take McGee as the primary piece in a Bogut trade. None. If there is any talk of the Bucks accepting McGee as part of a Bogut trade it will be as very much a periphery piece.

Again this is not meant to offend but it's your FO calling the Bucks for Bogut despite the asking price being apparently extremely high, this is not anything close to the Bucks wanting to dump the guy - in fact the likelihood of him being traded is most likely extremely low. If they do move him it will be for a very high end package only and will be done to rebuild or get improved win-now pieces, I imagine the only thing that would interest them from the Wiz (apart from Wall who would obviously be off limites) would be your first unprotected this year which quite obviously you fans are not going to want to give. That doesn't mean the Bucks FO would accept a counter offer of Javale McGee and scraps, why on earth would they? What possible motivation could we have for wanting to accept a significantly worse player at the same position who is due for a contract renewal in place of Bogut? That would be a moronic deal for the Bucks. I'm not saying you should offer more nor am I being a homer about it, I'm saying if your offer is based around McGee as a major piece then it's not remotely close to being an acceptable package.

The Bucks got offered the #2 pick in the last draft for Bogut from the Wolves and turned it down flat, one minor fractured ankle from a freak incident that he'll likely be back from in about 3 weeks isn't going to change his value from #2 pick in the draft to accepting a top 20 expiring center.

Ed Wood · Post #1252 » by **Ed Wood** » Sat Mar 10, 2012 6:09 am

Yes, that was more or less the tenor of discussion on both boards when the trade idea was first broached. Just as there were a number of Bucks fans who continued to post more or less the same deal including the draft pick even after every Washington poster who weighed in on the subject refused to even open up discussion on it there are those here who are debating the merits of a swap without the pick even though such a proposal would likely not meet a receptive audience.

Yes, we are all morons; such is the secret glory of every internet discussion.

Chocolate City Jordanaire · Post #1253 » by **Chocolate City Jordanaire** » Sat Mar 10, 2012 6:31 am

Dat2U wrote:I'm solidly against any trade that involves sending Javale for Bogut. It just reeks of the many terrible trades we've made over the last 20 years involving young for old or broken down players.

+1

Illuminaire · Post #1254 » by **Illuminaire** » Sat Mar 10, 2012 6:34 am

paul wrote:Guys not being a dick here but there's no way in hell the Bucks take McGee as the primary piece in a Bogut trade. None. If there is any talk of the Bucks accepting McGee as part of a Bogut trade it will be as very much a periphery piece.

No problem. Just means that in virtual pretend GM-land, we can't be trading partners. There is no way the Wiz give up a high lotto pick for a guy who hasn't topped 70 games a season since 07-08 and may never top 50% from the field again because his arm will never work right. *shrugs* Bogut has some value for sure, but I think that #2 pick was the peak of his value, not the baseline.

I can understand why you wouldn't be excited by McGee as a replacement, of course.

hands11 · Post #1255 » by **hands11** » Sat Mar 10, 2012 6:35 am

I would keep McGee and pay him before I would take Bogut

Yeah, McGee has brain problems but he is still just 24 and an athletic freak who for the most part, remains healthy.

McGee is not Dray. McGee puts in the work in the offseason. He added muscle. He added post moves. His game is developing. Do you'll remember what he looked like his first year ? He has come a long way. And with the team rebuilding, there is a better chance for him. I would not move him by the trade deadline. I want to see what Randy can do with him the rest of the year.

Bogut strikes me as the type whos body will break down and he will continue to slow down.

BanndNDC · Post #1256 » by **BanndNDC** » Sat Mar 10, 2012 6:38 am

nate33 wrote:If the deal is just McGee + filler for Bogut then I think it's no-brainer.

Indeed. Unfortunately EG is involved so it is possible that our pick would be included. if no pick, then good. if pick then bad. im just really worried that EG wants to include our pick this year (and take on gooden).

wouldnt be worried about jackson. he's smarter and plays better team ball then our incumbent 2 so it's not like he'd be a downgrade in the short term.

Post #1257 » by **miller31time** » Sat Mar 10, 2012 6:40 am

Honestly, if Ernie gives up our pick for Bogut, my mental stability will be in danger.

This isn't to say Bogut isn't a solid player but c'mon....

Illuminaire · Post #1258 » by **Illuminaire** » Sat Mar 10, 2012 6:42 am

Indeed. Bogut is a deeply flawed player with no ceiling left, a sturdy contract, and a nasty injury history.

If the Bucks really think he's worth a ton... that's what fans do. If EG thinks he's worth a ton... he's delusional, and I may need to take a break from fandom for a decade or three.

truwizfan4evr · Post #1259 » by **truwizfan4evr** » Sat Mar 10, 2012 6:45 am

It's funny how buck fans talking a lot of trash on are board and there's. I feel bucks are overrating Boguts value they cant expect a lot for a injury prone center. Mcgee has his moment but he still has a lot of upside and still a top 5 shot blocker in the nba. they think there getting are number 1 pick then there nuts. why risk getting maybe an Anthony Davis or Harrison Barnes for a injured center ? We may as well just keep Mcgee if not for Bogut then some other players

Post #1260 » by **miller31time** » Sat Mar 10, 2012 6:46 am

Illuminaire wrote:Indeed. Bogut is a deeply flawed player with no ceiling left, a sturdy contract, and a nasty injury history.

If the Bucks really think he's worth a ton... that's what fans do. If EG thinks he's worth a ton... he's delusional, and I may need to take a break from fandom for a decade or three.

It's funny -- I originally wrote "Honestly, if Ernie gives up our pick for Bogut, I might need to take a break from this team."

But then I realized that I've been through such terrible years with this franchise and am as big a fan of the team now as ever.

Some may call us masochists. I just see us as viewers of the real-world "Days of Our Lives".