Two Reasons Trading McGee for Bogut is a Bad Idea

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Before the Wizards resigned Gilbert Arenas, I warned about injuries.

1. Here is one reason the Wizards need to avoid Bogut:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... tan01.html

2005-2006 -- 82 games played, 0 missed
2006-2007 -- 66 games played, 16 missed
2007-2008 -- 78 games played, 4 missed
2008-2009 -- 36 games played, 46 missed
2009-2010 -- 69 games played, 13 missed (also, missed entired playoffs)
2010-2011 -- 65 games played, 17 missed
2011-2012 -- 12 games played, 27 missed

Over the past 5 1/2 seasons, Andrew Bogut has not appeared in 123 games.

Bogut has missed 123 out of a possible 449 games.


2. The second reason to avoid trading McGee is the Wizards are selling low.

Gaffs, blooper real plays, atrocious pick and roll defense, backing down from physical players--all of Javale's faults considered; McGee is still one of the three most effective players on the Wizards.

Here is a very objective metric that rates McGee third.

http://www.nerdnumbers.com/splits?team= ... F09%2F2012

Wins Produced, Points over Par, and the tool that computes the "nerd ranking" is by folks who do know how to assess player value. Booker, Wall, and McGee are the three productive Wizards. Turiaf was before his injury. Seraphin and Mason are coming on strong. Mack has been very solid. I trust the metric.

McGee is much better than most fans and, apparently, Wizards coaching and management think. Knee jerk, reactionary thinking is what got Chris Webber dealt...

I remember when Rip got traded. I remember saying Gil stays hurt, why resign him. I remember the young for old Webber and Rasheed trades. I remember the inefficient Ike for the Ben Wallace when his rebounding stood out like Faried's does now. So many dumb things over the years. The common thread: foolhardy, emotional decisions were made by management with the owner's blessing. Why make a deal at an inopportune time, with the player's perceived value being low?

The team pursuing him knows he's better than what they are sending, IMO!

This deal for Bogut is yet another stupid move if it goes down. I know the Wizards. Ernie did fine trading for Caron, but this feels like the Wizards are heading for disaster (again).

I am all for a good or even neutral Javale McGee trade. I hope to see him happy and playing well somewhere. However, this deal will suck, most likely if Bogut--and Stephen Jackson--come to DC.

It's ludicrous.

RECAP
--Bogut is older
--He misses a ton of games every year
--He has not been to the playoffs in 6 seasons
--Javale is rebounding better at a higher rate than Bogut has his entire career
--Metrics that take into account both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency, normalize scores by position, and use the most sophisticated analysis; show McGee to be among the most effective and best Wizards.

[truwizfan4evr]

Before the Wizards resigned Gilbert Arenas, I warned about injuries.

1. Here is one reason the Wizards need to avoid Bogut:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... tan01.html

2005-2006 -- 82 games played, 0 missed
2006-2007 -- 66 games played, 16 missed
2007-2008 -- 78 games played, 4 missed
2008-2009 -- 36 games played, 46 missed
2009-2010 -- 69 games played, 13 missed (also, missed entired playoffs)
2010-2011 -- 65 games played, 17 missed
2011-2012 -- 12 games played, 27 missed

Over the past 5 1/2 seasons, Andrew Bogut has not appeared in 123 games.

Bogut has missed 123 out of a possible 449 games.


2. The second reason to avoid trading McGee is the Wizards are selling low.

Gaffs, blooper real plays, atrocious pick and roll defense, backing down from physical players--all of Javale's faults considered; McGee is still one of the three most effective players on the Wizards.

Here is a very objective metric that rates McGee third.

http://www.nerdnumbers.com/splits?team= ... F09%2F2012

I know a lot of people do not trust any stats, but Wins Produced, Points over Par, and the tool that computes the "nerd ranking" above is very good. Booker, Wall, and McGee are the three productive Wizards. Turiaf was before his injury. Seraphin and Mason are coming on strong. Mack has been very solid. I trust it.

McGee is much better than fans and Ernie and Ted think. I remember when Rip got traded. I remember saying Gil stays hurt, why resign him. I remember the young for old Webber and Rasheed trades. I remember the inefficient Ike for the Ben Wallace when his rebounding stood out like Faried's does now. So many dumb things over the years.

This deal for Bogut is yet another stupid move if it goes down.

RECAP
--Bogut is older
--He misses a ton of games every year
--He has not been to the playoffs in 6 seasons
--Javale is rebounding better at a higher rate than Bogut has his entire career
--Metrics that take into account both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency, normalize scores by position, and use the most sophisticated analysis; show McGee to be among the most effective and best Wizards.

Ernie not thinking straight it's a dumb move. Mcgee is a good enough center for us. He plays d he has his good game's. He still a really young kid. Who know's how good he can be If we add a star player. Bucks fans are overrating Bogut. But McGee also does a lot of good things for us. He had that streak of double, double's at the beginning of the year. I know he is in consisted but a lot of big man are in the nba. That's why there are only a few good big men in the nba anyway. Javale has a chance to improve and be an elite center in this league. There's nothing really, that much wrong with Mcgee just his idiotic plays at times. But if you eliminated that he's a really good starting defensive center.

[Dat2U]

As a Wizard fan I feel like I'm held hostage by Ernie's reign of terror as GM. The longer he's in charge, and the longer Ernie gets to continue to make decisions that greatly impact the future of the franchise, the more I dry heave at the notion of Leonsis' so-called 10 point plan and sickened by his continued desire to preach patience.

Frankly, Bogut is damaged goods... This isn't 2009, this isn't even 2011. He simply can't stay healthy and the types of injuries he's getting aren't minor. They are career changing. And for all of his smarts and defensive tools, you can't impact the game if you can't play. That's not the type of risk a smart franchise would take. You take risks on young or cheap options. You don't take risks on old, injured or expensive options. That's just common sense. We can't afford to give up key assets for a guy sitting in a suit. This franchise has been down that road too many times.

[truwizfan4evr]

As a Wizard fan I feel like I'm held hostage by Ernie's reign of terror as GM. The longer he's in charge, and the longer Ernie gets to continue to make decisions that greatly impact the future of the franchise, the more I dry heave at the notion of Leonsis' so-called 10 point plan and sickened by his continued desire to preach patience.

Frankly, Bogut is damaged goods... This isn't 2009, this isn't even 2011. He simply can't stay healthy and the types of injuries he's getting aren't minor. They are career changing. And for all of his smarts and defensive tools, you can't impact the game if you can't play. That's not the type of risk a smart franchise would take. You take risks on young or cheap options. You don't take risks on old, injured or expensive options. That's just common sense. We can't afford to give up key assets for a guy sitting in a suit. This franchise has been down that road too many times.

Amen brother. I agree with everything you said there. Let not do another Gilbert again. A injured star player.

[Knighthonor]

Who said they are trading McGee?

[JWizmentality]

Wait, did I miss something? Are we trading McGee or is this a rumor?

[7-Day Dray]

If we trade McGee for Bogut, I am going to be one big sad panda.

[montestewart]

Wait, did I miss something? Are we trading McGee or is this a rumor?

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/21 ... _For_Bogut
Rumor, but it sounds grimly believable, Grunfeld finally pulling off a trade of an ascending McGee in return for a long coveted, descending and injured player.

[truwizfan4evr]

If we trade McGee for Bogut, I am going to be one big sad panda.

Mcgee is on the trading block. Only way team's would take Dray if Mcgee is involved in the trade's most likely.

[montestewart]

If we trade McGee for Bogut, I am going to be one big sad panda.

Mcgee is on the trading block. Only way team's would take Dray if Mcgee is involved in the trade's most likely.

I could see that, and there could be a good trade there. Also, if Bucks refuse a McGee for Bogut straight up, that might help suppress McGee's market value.

[dobrojim]

Gaffs, blooper real plays, atrocious pick and roll defense, backing down from physical players--all of Javale's faults considered; McGee is still one of the three most effective players on the Wizards.

While I totally agree with the sentiment that trading McGee for
Bogut would be a bad move - because Bogut is damaged goods -
saying you shouldn't trade him because he is one of our 3 best
players is not a good reason not to.

[Nivek]

Ernie "long-coveting" a player is something that concerns me. I've heard it with a few player acquisitions during his tenure. Liking a guy when he was in college doesn't mean much to me -- especially after he's been in the league for awhile. It seems like once he makes an evaluation, that evaluation sticks almost to the exclusion of all new information.

[no D in Hibachi]

Good OP, I agree completely. McGee for Bogut would be a bad mistake and one I'm certain we'd regret for a long time ala the Webber, Wallace, and Wallace trades.

[fishercob]

Is it mentioned somewhere that Ernie has long coveted Bogut?

[dandridge 10]

Gaffs, blooper real plays, atrocious pick and roll defense, backing down from physical players--all of Javale's faults considered; McGee is still one of the three most effective players on the Wizards.

While I totally agree with the sentiment that trading McGee for
Bogut would be a bad move - because Bogut is damaged goods -
saying you shouldn't trade him because he is one of our 3 best
players is not a good reason not to.

+1. I think CCJ puts a compelling argument together with respect to Boguts injury history. I didn't realize it was that bad. However, just like the Bucks fans might be overrating Bogut, I think CCJ and some other fans overrate McGee. I don't care what some metric rates McGee (which, by the way, being third best on a piss poor team, doesn't really excite me too much) or what McGee's individual stats are, my eyes and actual results tell me that McGee does not make this team better. Indeed, more often than not, the team plays worse when he is on the court, as demonstrated by the fact he has the worst on/off numbers on the team. Too many times this season, it has been noticeable how much better the Wizards play when he is not on the court. Its more than his gaffes and WTF moments that make the team play worse. Its his horrendous P&R defense, the fact he is out of position all the time, the fact he can't guard stronger players, and the fact that for every block he gets, he usually misses and gives up 3-4 offensive rebounds. It is also because he sets horrible picks, too often takes horrible shots, and is a poor and reluctant passer for a big man. This team is epically bad this season and McGee is a big part of why the team is that way. McGee's problems are much greater than just eliminating a few dumb mistakes. I can understand people not wanting to trade for Bogut because of Bogut's injury history, but let's not make it sound like we got something in McGee thats all that great too, because we don't.

[closg00]

The Wiz did try to sign McGee to an extension, but failed (look it up). I suspect we did not offer what DeAndre Jordan got. No-doubt Pam is telling him to sign nothing with this Org and wait to become an UFA.

[tontoz]

I have no problem with trading Mcgee in principle. I just can't get on board with Bogut. Even before his elbow got destroyed he couldn't shoot from outside 5 feet or from the foul line. Not a great addition for a team that can't shoot.

Now his defensive impact will probably be reduced because of injuries/conditioning. Even if he does stay healthy is he really going to make a big difference? I don't see it.

[hands11]

Isnt this discussion already happening in the trade thread and or the McGee thread?

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

While I totally agree with the sentiment that trading McGee for
Bogut would be a bad move - because Bogut is damaged goods -
saying you shouldn't trade him because he is one of our 3 best
players is not a good reason not to.

Roger that, jim. There's no reason not to trade Javale for value in return. Which is why I added in the original post this:

I am all for a good or even neutral Javale McGee trade. I hope to see him happy and playing well somewhere. However, this deal will suck, most likely if Bogut--and Stephen Jackson--come to DC.

[Illuminaire]

Good points, CCJ.

I only favor acquiring Bogut in a deal where we send the Bucks McGee and Blatche, or McGee and Lewis. Essentially, I agree with your issues with his production and injury risk and only want him in a situation where we're clearing some cap space and moving a malcontent.

As a locker room guy and a defensive anchor, I really like Bogut. Since he's on a two year deal, I'd be OK rolling the dice with him... if we're not giving up any assets aside from McGee. Of course, it's unlikely the Bucks would agree to that, so I suppose my practical position is not to make the trade.

As things stand, I just don't believe we can win playoff basketball games with McGee at center. He doesn't get it. He's not defensively aware. He doesn't make our team defense better and he can't stop a pick and roll if his momma's life depended on it. Good teams will always thrash us as long as he's the man in the middle... and that makes me want to get SOMETHING for him before he cashes in and becomes an expensive mistake.