Two Reasons Trading McGee for Bogut is a Bad Idea

[Dat2U]

To me its a simple question. Do you trade your best trade asset outside of Wall (no matter how you feel about him, that's what he is) for a guy that's most likely going to spend a lot of time on the bench in a suit?

This isn't an argument of a healthy Bogut vs. a healthy McGee. Even in decline, Bogut would still win that argument. This is about an injury prone player vs, a relatively healthy one.

The idea of trading McGee is something I'm not against. But trading him for Bogut is something I strongly disagree with.

[jimij]

To me its a simple question. Do you trade your best trade asset outside of Wall (no matter how you feel about him, that's what he is) for a guy that's most likely going to spend a lot of time on the bench in a suit?

This isn't an argument of a healthy Bogut vs. a healthy McGee. Even in decline, Bogut would still win that argument. This is about an injury prone player vs, a relatively healthy one.

The idea of trading McGee is something I'm not against. But trading him for Bogut is something I strongly disagree with.

This is pretty much where I'm at on McGee as well. I'd love a healthy Bogut but that guy doesn't exist and if he did the Bucks wouldn't be trading him.

I'm definitely ready to cut ties with McGee and would explore every option to get rid of him now before we lose him this summer for nothing for some delusional contract offer from another team. That said, I don't want to give him away. He is our best trade asset after Wall and needs to be cashed in accordingly.

I'm just at the point with him that I don't think I can stand another two or three years of his current level of play before the light bulb goes on. I'd rather walk now.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

dandridge, I see the same things you're seeing and I'm one of Javale's biggest supporters. You've noticed McGee's poor on/off numbers. So have I. But what do they really show?

Here stats indicate McGee makes the Wizards -12.0 points worse per 48 minutes this season.
http://www.82games.com/1112/11WAS15.HTM

*However, stats indicate McGee made the Wizards +6.8 points better per 48 minutes last season.
http://www.82games.com/1011/10WAS22.HTM

I am not sure what to make of it. What has happened?

My thought is why not just play Seraphin more and keep using McGee at his fullest intensity and effort, even if he starts to play more against second units?

Also, I don't trust on/off or what I see nearly as much as the tracker above.

I might be overrating McGee but I am positive the overall perception of McGee's value is too low among most Wizards fans.

The on/off stats don't say that McGee made the Wiz 6.8 points better or that McGee is making them 12 points worse. Those numbers say what happens at a TEAM level when McGee is on the floor, which may seem like the same thing, but actually is not. McGee might be causing the results we see in the numbers, and he might not. Determining causality takes additional analysis.

I stand corrected, thanks.

Plus/minus is something I am going to stop looking at on a game-by-game basis. As far as additional analysis goes, guys at Wages of Win (Arturo and Dre) have expounded on the analysis of Dave Berri. Wins Produced and Points over Par are things they have used to come up with the metric I used in the OP.

http://www.nerdnumbers.com/splits?team= ... F09%2F2012

I will use this until they start charging money for it.

I look at McGee's rating on that and think, regardless of how it looks, I trust the tool. McGee's game is perplexing. I think recent WTF plays have put blinders on people who don't notice his OHY (Oh hell yes!) or attaboy plays. For all the press over McGee fouling and going to the bench against the Lakers and sitting out all fourth quarter, few in the media noted all the rebounds McGee grabbed in the third quarter and the good energy he brought to the team. He had a double double in 22 minutes, but still, even a fan who was at the game was critical of McGee.

I see where he fails to defend and where his poor positional defense is exploited, but no mention of Wall's poor shooting, Crawford's ill-advised shots, failure of help defenders to rotate where McGee vacated--he's a one man zone with nobody ever in the paint if he rotates.

McGee does a lot wrong, but I think the nerd formula takes into account the things he does right. (It measures offensive and defensive efficiency and is far more detailed that +/-).

Nivek, sorry for the rant response. Plus minus as you corrected does not show causality. I maintain Points over Par does. It gives a true sense of McGee's worth.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

To me its a simple question. Do you trade your best trade asset outside of Wall (no matter how you feel about him, that's what he is) for a guy that's most likely going to spend a lot of time on the bench in a suit?

This isn't an argument of a healthy Bogut vs. a healthy McGee. Even in decline, Bogut would still win that argument. This is about an injury prone player vs, a relatively healthy one.

The idea of trading McGee is something I'm not against. But trading him for Bogut is something I strongly disagree with.

This.

[BruceO]

Are his past injuries going to affect his future play? What caused them? Is it his body breaking down or freak accidents that won't occur again. Will he be ready to go next season? He seemed to be still contributing this year based on team record with (7-4) vs without him (7-14) before the break. As shown if mcgee becomes too pricey he wont be worth it especially as an anchor with his bbiq. No substance. Ernie used to be bucks gm so he may have relationships there to this day to make this work

[Nivek]

Well, I have some issues with the work being done at the Wins Produced blog, specifically the position adjustment. And, Wins Produced actually may OVERVALUE shooting efficiency, which I know sounds funny considering how much I post about the importance of efficiency. However, the true value of a missed shot isn't minus a possession, which is how they have it in Wins Produced -- because some of those missed shots result in offensive rebounds, which lead to a new scoring opportunity (some of which are very high percentage).

My personal rating system -- which has basically the same kinds of correlations with winning as Wins Produced does, but without the position adjustment -- sets the break even point for shooting efficiency from the floor at about 41%. The actual number varies season to season depending on offensive rebounding percentage. When offensive rebounding percentage is higher, missed shots hurt less. My system does include a defensive adjustment similar to one Berri uses in Wins Produced, albeit using a different methodology.

All that said, my basic conclusion is similar to Berri's -- that on balance, McGee is an above average player. I'll have updated numbers up in the stat thread tomorrow.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

McGee is not ascending...I don't get that part of the argument. He was ascending to start the season but has regressed since and his lack of bball IQ is a SERIOUS problem that in & of itself hurts his trade value. He is a RFA this offseason and a team will throw $10-$12 MM his way. Are any of you prepared to match that? If not then we will lose him for nothing. It's year 4 and I still consider him a huge question mark and don't consider him a piece to the puzzle. if he's not that yet then how can you commit that much money to him. The SECOND he signs a big contract or we match that offer, he's untradeable!

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... eja01.html

Take a look at total rebounds and also defensive rebounds per-36 minutes, the past three seasons. Without any shadow of a doubt, that is one area McGee is ascending.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wiz ... _blog.html

McGee is one of just five players averaging at least 11.5 points, 8.5 rebounds and two blocked shots – Josh Smith and all-stars Dwight Howard, Marc Gasol, Andrew Bynum are the others – but he has also mixed the spectacular with the perplexing.

He is having the best statistical season of his career, posting four games with at least 20 points and 10 rebounds, and 10 games with at least four blocked shots. But he continues to struggle with the same mistakes, especially on defense as he often finds himself out of position. He has the worst total plus-minus of any player on the roster despite playing the third-most minutes for the whole season.

I would like to see the Wizards get a young player or a pick if they deal McGee, not Bogut.

Also, I cannot for the life of me imagine why not one time Seraphin and McGee have been on the court together. McGee's defensive rotations and gambling to block shots kills the Wizards. Physical big men take the ball right at him. However, Seraphin can hold position because he is freakishly strong. Javale is one of the best weak side shot blockers alive.

For once, why not try a big lineup when Booker is not in the game? Kevin can play PF and Javale is fast enough to stand where a PF would stand on offense. I don't know why they cannot play together during times when McGee is physically overwhelmed on defense, but he is able to rebound and score at the other end?

[BruceO]

For the record I'd rather the trade didn't involve mcgee but if everything checks out with bogut then it's an obvious huge upgrade. The key here is simply about his injuries, whether they will have long term residual effect, whether his body is breaking down or its bad luck accidents and the effect on current numbers in recent years. Can we please examine that please. I'm most interested in that aspect. Also we get to possibly upgrade without ruining the tank

[BruceO]

For the record I'd rather the trade didn't involve mcgee but if everything checks out with bogut then it's an obvious huge upgrade. The key here is simply about his injuries, whether they will have long term residual effect, whether his body is breaking down or its bad luck accidents and the effect on current numbers in recent years. Can we please examine that please. I'm most interested in that aspect. Also we get to possibly upgrade without ruining the tank

[Hawaii]

The idea of trading McGee is something I'm not against. But trading him for Bogut is something I strongly disagree with.

I agree with this.

If we are going to trade McGee, I think he should be included in a deal that'll get us Josh Smith. He's someone who I think can have tremendous overall impact on our team, and someone that will mesh well with John Wall's style of play. IMO, McGee is our 3rd trade priority, after Blatche and Lewis. If we have to give up both Blatche and McGee for Smith, I'd do that deal, and I think it would work out for all involved.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Well, I have some issues with the work being done at the Wins Produced blog, specifically the position adjustment. And, Wins Produced actually may OVERVALUE shooting efficiency, which I know sounds funny considering how much I post about the importance of efficiency. However, the true value of a missed shot isn't minus a possession, which is how they have it in Wins Produced -- because some of those missed shots result in offensive rebounds, which lead to a new scoring opportunity (some of which are very high percentage).

My personal rating system -- which has basically the same kinds of correlations with winning as Wins Produced does, but without the position adjustment -- sets the break even point for shooting efficiency from the floor at about 41%. The actual number varies season to season depending on offensive rebounding percentage. When offensive rebounding percentage is higher, missed shots hurt less. My system does include a defensive adjustment similar to one Berri uses in Wins Produced, albeit using a different methodology.

All that said, my basic conclusion is similar to Berri's -- that on balance, McGee is an above average player. I'll have updated numbers up in the stat thread tomorrow.

That is my bottom line, too.

The one thing nobody has considered is the next coach. Javale is what he is, but the next coach might be smarter/better than Flip or Randy Wittman.

I really think the Wizards need to hold on to Javale and Seraphin because there's a way they can play together some minutes each game. McGee is above average but in the very areas he is weak, Kevin Seraphin is strong. They would complement each other well in some cases.

The reason to keep McGee is he's already above average at his position, and another coach can minimize his WTFs while also playing to his strengths. Another visionary head coach can try something the other guys have not tried.

I said a long time ago Javale reminds me of Larry Nance. Well, he's not. He charges every time he tries to post up. However, McGee never just shoots a jumper. McGee never has a big man on the block to pass to. McGee never has a big man screening. He never has played with Seraphin this season.

On top of that, I see no reason why the Wizards couldn't be satisfied having McGee off the bench.

[Illuminaire]

I think if McGee was at any other position, I'd be for keeping him despite the issues he presents.

In today's NBA though, I really believe you need a smart center who contributes positively to team defense. McGee doesn't... and it's likely he hurts us instead. I just don't think you can compete against top teams with a player like Javale in the middle.

I could be wrong, of course. I can't back that up with mounds of statistics. *shrug* Guess we'll find out.

[Illuminaire]

On top of that, I see no reason why the Wizards couldn't be satisfied having McGee off the bench.

I can think of eight to twelve million reasons per year.

[gesa2]

If we can trade McGee and filler for any of Josh Smith, Steph Curry, Batum, etc., that trumps Bogut easily. But if none of that is available, and our options are one of:

a)Match a contract for McGee from some desperate team at 11million per
b)let McGee walk for said contract, or
c) trade him and filler for Bogut.

Then I'm all over c.
Say Bogut has a 20% chance of recovering his form from 3 years ago, a 50% chance of looking like last year for the rest of his career, and a 30% chance of never having much of a game again. That's still a 20% chance of having a core piece, and a 70% chance of at least having a dependable top 10-15 Center 50 games a year. Those are better odds than I'd give of McGee being dependable on D enough for us not to suck. I'm a believer in advance stats, but subjectively I just can't see a good team that counts on McGee.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

On top of that, I see no reason why the Wizards couldn't be satisfied having McGee off the bench.

I can think of eight to twelve million reasons per year.

Bench him now and the price you resign him could be 8M.

If Washington cannot figure it out other teams might get scared away.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

If we can trade McGee and filler for any of Josh Smith, Steph Curry, Batum, etc., that trumps Bogut easily. But if none of that is available, and our options are one of:

a)Match a contract for McGee from some desperate team at 11million per
b)let McGee walk for said contract, or
c) trade him and filler for Bogut.

Then I'm all over c.
Say Bogut has a 20% chance of recovering his form from 3 years ago, a 50% chance of looking like last year for the rest of his career, and a 30% chance of never having much of a game again. That's still a 20% chance of having a core piece, and a 70% chance of at least having a dependable top 10-15 Center 50 games a year. Those are better odds than I'd give of McGee being dependable on D enough for us not to suck. I'm a believer in advance stats, but subjectively I just can't see a good team that counts on McGee.

Bogut is going to miss about 20 games a season, and he may never be the same player. Milwaukee doesn't want him for the remaining 2 years.

The odds are he will be hurt and not what he was.

[Illuminaire]

I'm sorry, but if the best case is eight million a year... you cannot pay your backup center that much money. That right there is the nightmare of why I'd rather find a positive trade and let him be someone else's headache.

[FAH1223]

someone e-mail Ted about playing Seraphin at PF and McGee at C together

[paul]

For the record I'd rather the trade didn't involve mcgee but if everything checks out with bogut then it's an obvious huge upgrade. The key here is simply about his injuries, whether they will have long term residual effect, whether his body is breaking down or its bad luck accidents and the effect on current numbers in recent years. Can we please examine that please. I'm most interested in that aspect. Also we get to possibly upgrade without ruining the tank

I can help here. Bogut has had 3 major injuries in his career. The first was 3 and a half years ago when he had stress fractures in his lower back. It happened very early in the season and therefore caused him to missed about 50 games. He went on a training regime of core strengthening and hasn't had a single problem with his back since. This is the only 'body breakdown' type of injury he has ever had.

The second was his dislocated and broken elbow, wrist and hand from the fall when Amar'e tunneled him late in the season two seasons ago. This was a high impact injury that would have injured anyone in the same way, no fault of his body. He had another surgery this past offseason on the elbow to clean out some bone fragments and has declared that he's now extremely happy with it after struggling with it last season. Once the Bucks were eliminated from the playoffs last season they shut him down early to allow him to get this surgery done before the offseason, otherwise he would have played 75 games last season.

The third was his broken ankle suffered 6 weeks ago. Again this was a high impact injury that would have injured anyone in the same way. He went up to block a shot on a fast break against Houston and landed on Kyle Lowry's foot, causing the ankle to turn over and fracture. The fracture itself was small enough to not show up in an X-Ray or initial scan, wasn't until they got a detailed MRI that they picked it up. He's already back in rehab and has another scan in 2 weeks, if it's clear he'll resume basketball activities.

So yeah he's had some injuries, but they have been unlucky high impact injuries rather than a sign of his body breaking down.

Milwaukee doesn't want him for the remaining 2 years.

That is patently untrue, it's been widely reported that the Bucks will happily keep him unless they receive an outstanding offer. Again, this is other front offices including yours contacting the Bucks to try to get him, not the Bucks shopping him around for any deal going. It's also been reported that Bogut is the one requesting a trade but the Bucks are reluctant to do it.

As to the thread itself, I highly doubt the Bucks are interested in McGee as part of any deal.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

For the record I'd rather the trade didn't involve mcgee but if everything checks out with bogut then it's an obvious huge upgrade. The key here is simply about his injuries, whether they will have long term residual effect, whether his body is breaking down or its bad luck accidents and the effect on current numbers in recent years. Can we please examine that please. I'm most interested in that aspect. Also we get to possibly upgrade without ruining the tank

I can help here. Bogut has had 3 major injuries in his career. The first was 3 and a half years ago when he had stress fractures in his lower back. It happened very early in the season and therefore caused him to missed about 50 games. He went on a training regime of core strengthening and hasn't had a single problem with his back since. This is the only 'body breakdown' type of injury he has ever had.

The second was his dislocated and broken elbow, wrist and hand from the fall when Amar'e tunneled him late in the season two seasons ago. This was a high impact injury that would have injured anyone in the same way, no fault of his body. He had another surgery this past offseason on the elbow to clean out some bone fragments and has declared that he's now extremely happy with it after struggling with it last season. Once the Bucks were eliminated from the playoffs last season they shut him down early to allow him to get this surgery done before the offseason, otherwise he would have played 75 games last season.

The third was his broken ankle suffered 6 weeks ago. Again this was a high impact injury that would have injured anyone in the same way. He went up to block a shot on a fast break against Houston and landed on Kyle Lowry's foot, causing the ankle to turn over and fracture. The fracture itself was small enough to not show up in an X-Ray or initial scan, wasn't until they got a detailed MRI that they picked it up. He's already back in rehab and has another scan in 2 weeks, if it's clear he'll resume basketball activities.

So yeah he's had some injuries, but they have been unlucky high impact injuries rather than a sign of his body breaking down.

Thank you for providing this input. You sound very familiar with him. I don't have anything against Bogut. I have been a fan of a team that has made a lot of deals that didn't work out so well. McGee is a young guy who hasn't been injured too often.

Milwaukee doesn't want him for the remaining 2 years.

That is patently untrue, it's been widely reported that the Bucks will happily keep him unless they receive an outstanding offer. Again, this is other front offices including yours contacting the Bucks to try to get him, not the Bucks shopping him around for any deal going. It's also been reported that Bogut is the one requesting a trade but the Bucks are reluctant to do it.

As to the thread itself, I highly doubt the Bucks are interested in McGee as part of any deal.

Thanks, paul.

I did make an assumption. If Bogut is calling for the deals that makes me wrong in that assumption.

I still feel it is a bad idea, but your post has made me feel a little better if a Bogut trade goes down. Not much better knowing the Wizards' medical staff. They don't make guys better.