Official Speculation Thread (Pt XVII, Mods Close)

[ClayDavis]

dont take vescey seriously and dont take all the smokescreens seriously tomorrow. gm's are trying to troll front offices to better their returns

[MitchellUK]

Would the Bucks really take Curry for Bogut (which is essentially the meat of the deal)? I mean, probably the main reason they're trying to move Bogut is because he can't stay healthy, and Curry is showing signs of the same issues. What's his latest injury, his fourth ankle twist/sprain of the year? That's got to set alarm bells ringing if you're Milwaukee. On top of that, you have, as people mentioned, the issue of Brandon Jennings - can Curry and Jennings play together? Doubt it, so another team or separate deal would be needed.

I'm not saying we would be that team, nor am I saying that we could offer a better trade to either team separately, but I just don't see Curry/Lopez for Bogut working for the Bucks.

[Viper1500]

imagine if we got ellis... and dwight ended up wanting to leave, and we traded him + fillers for gasol and bynum. a core of ellis, gasol, bynum would be a legit contender wouldnt it?

We would be worse than the Lakers are currently.

[shadrock]

The Vescey rumor if true just sounds like posturing on GSW's behalf to me. They know that the Magic are dependent on them here, and by threatening to do a deal straight up, it forces us to give more to them in return.

I honestly dont see how it can be anything else. No way on earth the Warriors would actually prefer to give up Curry over Monta for Bogut.

[rafal]

Just woke up. Did i miss anything ?

[IGotDaMagicInMe]

Injured guy for injured guy, sounds fair. . .but they still need somebody to take sjax dont they?

[MagicFan32]

nothing is going to happen that's going to make dwight happy long term, or make us happy,
in the end we'll fall short as always, and either trade dwight or lose him this summer

the chris paul stuff happened to us THREE TIMES and everyone takes the bait, SMH

[JF5]

All this Monta talk is just REALLY misleading to me.

They aren't sending him here for literally nothing.

Plus, the Warriors could get a deal STRAIGHT UP for a big man with another team without our help or trading Monta.

[MitchellUK]

All this Monta talk is just REALLY misleading to me.

They aren't sending him here for literally nothing.

Plus, the Warriors could get a deal STRAIGHT UP for a big man with another team without our help or trading Monta.

They definitely could. It seems the Magic's potential role in any three team deal (aside from apparently giving up both JJ and Ryan) would be to absorb at least one toxic contract from GSW or the third team. Whether or not Golden State or a third team want/need that remains to be seen.

[RGMirs]

gn guys. hope there is good news in the morning,

[Viper1500]

All this Monta talk is just REALLY misleading to me.

They aren't sending him here for literally nothing.

Plus, the Warriors could get a deal STRAIGHT UP for a big man with another team without our help or trading Monta.

Very untrue

Orlando being involved in the Milwaukee trade makes perfect sense. This is because we take GSW's bad contract and Milwaukee's in S-Jax.

[eyriq]

Orlando's core package is Redick|Anderson|Hedo. The amazing thing about this package is that it is $17,815,850 in guaranteed money over two years yet worth $20,010,451 this year for a trade. Now granted I don't see a team waiving Redick or not re-signing Anderson, but the financial flexibility this package offers is significant, and the offensive talent that Anderson and Redick bring to the table is very, very significant. Bogut and SJax are owed $37,059,750 over the next two years while Ellis and Biedrins are owed $40,000,000 over the next two years. The trade gets tricky though if you assume that Orlando is the dumping site for both SJax and Biedrins.

[Viper1500]

Orlando's core package is Redick|Anderson|Hedo. The amazing thing about this package is that it is $17,815,850 in guaranteed money over two years yet worth $20,010,451 this year for a trade. Now granted I don't see a team waiving Redick or not re-signing Anderson, but the financial flexibility this package offers is significant, and the offensive talent that Anderson and Redick bring to the table is very, very significant. Bogut and SJax are owed $37,059,750 over the next two years while Ellis and Biedrins are owed $40,000,000 over the next two years. The trade gets tricky though if you assume that Orlando is the dumping site for both SJax and Biedrins.

A trade was proposed on the last thread that ended in us actually keeping Anderson, it was quite beneficial for all parties but it did end up in Orl ending up with Biedrins and S-Jax. Either way, I'd have done it in a heartbeat.

[ChosenSavior]

gn guys. hope there is good news in the morning,

[CPBalla2003 n da 863]

I'm outtie, ill be up in the afternoon, cheers to good news

[eyriq]

How many wins we are trading:

Anderson - WS/48 .249, MPG 31, estimated remaining MP 744, WS lost 3.86
Redick - WS/48 .169, MPG 25.6, estimated remaining MP 614, WS lost 2.16
Hedo - WS/48 .076, MPG 31.3, estimated remaining MP 751, WS lost 1.19

Total WS lost 7.21

Edit: Just to estimate how many wins a trade for Ellis|Biedrins|SJax would bring in I'll use a PER=WS/48 conversion formula I found over on the APBRmetrics forums:

Ellis: PER 19, Adjusted PER for Orlando's defense 20.54, @36.9 MPG estimated WS 2.84
Biedrins: 3yr average PER 11.5, Adjusted PER for Orlando's defense 12.43, @12 MPG estimated WS .44
SJax: 3yr average PER (not counting this year) 15.43, Adjusted PER for Orlando's defense 16.7, @32 MPG 1.9 WS

Total WS gained 5.18

[WeAreVenom]

Guys, this is the main thread from the Milwaukee board dealing with Bogut.

Woelfel - 70% bogut's gone and maybe Jennings (update pg131)
viewtopic.php?f=21&t=1166837&start=2250

And if you intend on posting there; be nice/cordial. However, I recommend we don't post (too many people on edge), and we just sit back and read what they have to say... gather info.

Lol, I just came from there.

Is there anywhere where we're not the topic of conversation? Just read this:

This is what I've come up with as for as a MIL-ORL-GSW trade goes.
If it's off base or unfair let me know, feedback is appreciated.

Milwaukee
OUT: Bogut, Jax
IN: Brown, Thompson, Redick, Orton, ORL 1st

Orlando
OUT: Hedo, Redick, Orton, ORL 1st
IN: Ellis, Jax

Golden State
OUT: Ellis, Thompson, Brown
IN: Bogut, Hedo

Milwaukee receives future SG, late 1st, nice expiring, young cheap big

Orlando picks up 2 new starting wings to entice Dwight to stay

GSW may need more of a return. Perhaps if we threw in Sanders or if there was some other variation.

So Orlando gives up nothing of value and comes away a far better team? They essentially shave a year off Hedo's contract and end up getting Ellis for Redick, Orton, and a late first round pick. That's not happening.

Nevermind that the deal is only bad for GS, no, they are just worried that we wouldn't be giving up enough. SMH.

[RookieStar]

Ah craaapppp.. nothing happening? After all that buildup?

[eyriq]

If we keep Anderson I will sacrifice a goat to the basketball gods

[Nyce_1]

LOL I just woke up and finished the last 20 pages of 16. Now there's 20 more in 17. Good ****. #LEGGO