Lebron for DPOY?

[mopper8]

I don't disagree, I'm just pointing out that regardless of whether or not he wins it, he probably doesn't deserve it.

That being said, if voters start catching on to Orlando's weak defense because of other stats (10th in Opp FG%, 5th in Opp PPG - good but certainly not great D numbers for the more simple-minded voters), I could see his case slipping.

The Heat definitely seem to be campaigning for Lebron, and aside from titles, more nationally-televised games where he guards guys like Pau Gasol and then switches to Derrick Rose the next night, and he might get traction.

Still, he's a long-shot, which IMO is ridiculous

[Chosen01]

Just tired of Dwight getting every year,LeBron may have to shut down Rose etc AGAIN in the playoffs and then I think he'll win it next year.

[Zasterror]

LeBron is definitely in the discussion. Wade needs love too.

[GreenHat]

LeBron is definitely in the discussion. Wade needs love too.

For DPoY?

Wade's already missed 9 games in a 66 game season and he's only playing low 30s minutes. Even if he should have been in the discussion (which I don't think he should be) he wouldn't be after playing less minutes. He would have to be by far the best defender in the league.

I don't disagree, I'm just pointing out that regardless of whether or not he wins it, he probably doesn't deserve it.

That being said, if voters start catching on to Orlando's weak defense because of other stats (10th in Opp FG%, 5th in Opp PPG - good but certainly not great D numbers for the more simple-minded voters), I could see his case slipping.

The Heat definitely seem to be campaigning for Lebron, and aside from titles, more nationally-televised games where he guards guys like Pau Gasol and then switches to Derrick Rose the next night, and he might get traction.

Still, he's a long-shot, which IMO is ridiculous

I don't disagree with your disagreement, I was just going by how people vote.

Also I think you are underrating how much the voters don't like Lebron.

If this season was being put up by almost any other guy it would be a near unanimous MVP vote. As of now I have this annoying feeling we could end up with the two seed and someone else could get it.

Remember guys like Skip Bayless are voting for these awards. He won't even have Lebron in his top 5 for MVP so there is no way he is going to give him a DPoY. Bucher is going to put Rose ahead of Lebron for MVP, there is no way he is going to put Lebron over Dwight for DPoY.

By the way who is your pick? I have Lebron second if you include rebounding with defense to Dwight even with the Magic's slip. Lebron still has much better teammates on defense (Anthony/Battier/Haslem/Chalmers/Wade) and its not like our defense is that much better.

I think we both agree our defense should be better but Lebron individually has been amazing.

To play devil's advocate, doesn't your argument against Dwight (mainly 11th Drtg) work against Lebron too (7th Drtg)?

That's why I'm curious who your top couple of choices are. To me Dwight and Lebron are the top two. I just can't see them giving it to a Tony Allen, Igoudala or Deng. Of those 3 I would say Allen is the best defender but the least likely to win. Of course he does play less than 30 mins so not really that big of an omission.

[Pimpwerx]

LeBron is definitely in the discussion. Wade needs love too.

Not for DPOY. He misses too many plays arguing with the refs, and he gambles a lot on steals to the detriment of his man defense...sometimes. He's not consistent enough with it to warrant a nod IMO. Lebron's effort is more consistent and more varied. Wade deserves first team honors though. PEACE.

[Zasterror]

Oh of course not for DPOTY, I meant for All-Defensive team honors. It would be pretty ridiculous if Wade got consideration for DPOTY when LeBron is the more consistent and versatile defender.

[SideshowBob]

2009: http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ranking09
2010: http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ranking10
2011: http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ranking11
2012: http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ranking_rec

His DRAPM is a little bit below where it's been the last 3 seasons, though still in the same range. Also, this hasn't been updated since February 18th (J.E.'s on vacation and he's said that he'll be updating after he returns on the 26th), and his defense has been notably better in the last month than it was to start off the year, and it's shown in the Heat's gradually improving DRTG.

Drza even pointed out in a thread on the PC board (thread regarding Deng's value to the Bulls) that Lebron's been up there with the top defensive big men in Engelmann's 08-11 study. He also mentioned that we've seen evidence before of great defensive Small Forwards being capable of having this kind of impact on the defense, without being dominant shot blockers.

On the '04 - '09 Ilardi study, Artest (+5.1 on defense), right in a group with Ben Wallace (+5.2), Tim Duncan (+4.8) , Ratlif (+4.6), and Camby (+4.2). Battier (+3.9) and Kirileknko (+3.5) weren't far behind.

Similarly, in Englemann's '08 - '11 study LeBron (+3.7 on defense) was right there with Dwight Howard (+4.0), Duncan (+3.9), Josh Smith (+4.1) and Andrew Bogut (+4.2). And in that study Deng was +3.0 on defense, not far behind.

The value of a dominant shot blocker comes from the threat of the block. They scare the opposing teams' penetrators from attacking the rim; essentially, their impact on defense comes not from the blocks, but from creating hesitation in the offensive players' minds and forcing them to change the offensive game plan.

What we see with these Small Forwards is not shot blocking, but rather, their ability to cover the floor well. Rather than greatly altering high percentage shots at the rim, they moderately alter every shot they can get to. It seems to create a similar level of impact as a shot blocking big man, and that's a big part of why we see these guys pop up so high on these defensive APM studies. If we had PbP data from the 90s, I reckon we'd see Pippen be in the same mold as these guys (Artest, James, Battier, Kirilenko, etc.).

[GreenHat]

To be honest I don't see Wade as a first team all defensive team guy mainly for the reasons you guys stated.

[SideshowBob]

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/miamiheat/post/_/id/12922/james-eyeing-howards-top-defender-award