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Official Trade Thread XVIII: 1/20/12 - 5/14/12

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Re: Official Trade Thread XVIII 

Post#1401 » by truwizfan4evr » Wed Mar 14, 2012 2:00 pm

Nivek wrote:
truwizfan4evr wrote:Carmelo Anthony want out of New York. it's the same thing with Denver. He was not good enough to get the team to win so he blames it on the organization. Just face it melo you overrated and never been that good in the first place. I hope melo don't come to the wizards or we really be in bad shape with his selfish play and large contract. He is a cancer to any team he plays for and to any of the team he goes on in the future. He reminds me of Gilbert arenas and Iverson. They all kill your team chemistry.


If he reminds you of Arenas, you need to get your memory checked. Arenas was a stone-cold offensive machine -- an uber-efficient, high-usage weapon. Hughes, Jamison, Butler all had terrific seasons playing with Gil. Deshawn Stevenson resurrected his career playing off Arenas. Gil was scoring 28+ a game, but also getting 6+ assists. And his team's offenses were terrific -- top 3-4 in the league when he was at his peak.

Now defense was an issue with Arenas, as it was with basically everyone on the roster not named Haywood.

But don't confuse the stuff that happened after Gil got hurt to what Arenas was pre-injury. Before the injury, the guy was phenomenal.
Not the Gilbert before the knee injury. The Gilbert when he signed that contract. Melo basely quit on the Knicks asking to be traded. He's not a good team player. Melo always goes for his stats before playing team ball. Now things not going well at the moment for the Knicks now he wants to bail out instead of finishing what he started
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Re: Official Trade Thread XVIII 

Post#1402 » by Rafael122 » Wed Mar 14, 2012 2:07 pm

Wiz could either trade Blatche and like 3 or 4 other players to make the salaries match or if the Anthony thing really has become toxic, they could trade Lewis and a lotto protected first round pick in 2013 for him, and have the Knicks add maybe a guy like Toney Douglas or something.
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Re: Official Trade Thread XVIII 

Post#1403 » by LyricalRico » Wed Mar 14, 2012 2:07 pm

Definitely torn on Melo. I agree that he's got issues, but he can carry a team of nobodies (which is what we have) to a 45-50 win team. That contract is huge, though.
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Re: Official Trade Thread XVIII 

Post#1404 » by Rafael122 » Wed Mar 14, 2012 2:20 pm

LyricalRico wrote:Definitely torn on Melo. I agree that he's got issues, but he can carry a team of nobodies (which is what we have) to a 45-50 win team. That contract is huge, though.


3 yrs, roughly $60 million left.

We can't trade them Turiaf because he was on the team last year. Lewis for Anthony works straight up, but that would be seen as a straight salary dump for them.
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Re: Official Trade Thread XVIII 

Post#1405 » by fishercob » Wed Mar 14, 2012 2:22 pm

I wouldn't take Melo if we didn't have to trade anything for him. He's simply not worth a 3 year $67M contract. In a capped system -- especially with this new CBA -- it's hard to win with a contract like that unless the guy is producing at a Lebron-type level.

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Re: Official Trade Thread XVIII 

Post#1406 » by LyricalRico » Wed Mar 14, 2012 2:27 pm

^ Well, the pain wouldn't really come until the final year (since that's when the stricter rules really take effect). So if we can give up pennies on the dollar to rent Melo for 2 years and then have that expiring contract to shop in year 3, I think it's something that has to be considered.
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Re: Official Trade Thread XVIII 

Post#1407 » by Rafael122 » Wed Mar 14, 2012 2:37 pm

LyricalRico wrote:^ Well, the pain wouldn't really come until the final year (since that's when the stricter rules really take effect). So if we can give up pennies on the dollar to rent Melo for 2 years and then have that expiring contract to shop in year 3, I think it's something that has to be considered.


Hypothetically speaking, say you get the top pick in the draft, get Anthony Davis, presumably you've got Wall/Anthony/Booker/Davis as 4/5 of your starting lineup. Then you have Crawford, Singleton, Seraphin, Mack, Vesely, all on rookie contracts and I'm still counting Blatche as being part of our team. Our cap would be at around roughly $49 million, give or take. The cap this year was $58 million. The team would still have $10, $11 million to play with to get a 2 guard, and maybe a backup small forward.

Team would be in decent shape cap wise.
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Re: Official Trade Thread XVIII 

Post#1408 » by jivelikenice » Wed Mar 14, 2012 2:49 pm

I think I'd do a deal for Melo. If you have Wall, Melo, and Booker you have 3 good pieces that you could build around. Melo might have a bad rep in NY, but he'd still help attract FAs to DC. The main reason you do this is because you're getting him at an all time low value and while he's just not this bad. He put himself in a bad situation in NY by forcing a deal and then Linsanity emerging while he was out did not help the cause. Now when Lin is going against better players and struggling the blame is falling on Melo. You will never get this caliber a scorer for any cheaper than what's he go for right now.
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Re: Official Trade Thread XVIII 

Post#1409 » by rl25g » Wed Mar 14, 2012 3:51 pm

id rather trade our 1st for Harden than Melo
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Re: Official Trade Thread XVIII 

Post#1410 » by Dat2U » Wed Mar 14, 2012 4:09 pm

Not interested in trading a chance of landing Anthony Davis for Melo. Even if it's only a 20% or 25% chance.

Frankly, I'm not interested in trading our 2012 1st for anyone until we know exactly what the pick is.

Now after the lottery, if we end up with the 4th or 5th pick in the draft, then I might consider a trade.
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Re: Official Trade Thread XVIII 

Post#1411 » by fishercob » Wed Mar 14, 2012 4:18 pm

rl25g wrote:id rather trade our 1st for Harden than Melo


Agreed.
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Re: Official Trade Thread XVIII 

Post#1412 » by Dat2U » Wed Mar 14, 2012 4:22 pm

rl25g wrote:id rather trade our 1st for Harden than Melo


If we get the #1 pick in the draft, I'm sure OKC would be willing to trade Harden for it.
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Re: Official Trade Thread XVIII 

Post#1413 » by rl25g » Wed Mar 14, 2012 4:28 pm

Dat

of course i wouldnt trade the number 1 for Harden, but i would trade a pick in the 3-5 range for him

OKC wouldnt trade Harden until the offseason so it would be after the lottery anyways.
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Re: Official Trade Thread XVIII 

Post#1414 » by Rafael122 » Wed Mar 14, 2012 4:41 pm

We had a chance to trade McGee for Harden apparently in 2009. *sigh*
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Re: Official Trade Thread XVIII 

Post#1415 » by miller31time » Wed Mar 14, 2012 4:55 pm

Nivek wrote:
miller31time wrote:
Illuminaire wrote:Moderately efficient may be understating things some seasons, but he's got a few in there that aren't exactly inspiring.

You list his assist totals and note his incredibly high usage, but neglect to connect the two. Melo's assist rate is absolutely mediocre. His TRB% is average, with the exception of two years when Carl was on his case about it constantly. :P

I'm not trying to say Melo is a bad player, but he is not a game changer. The problem is that he - and the league- believes that he is, which, call me crazy, might just be a bad thing for team chemistry.

Anthony gives you good scoring, average rebounding, average passing, and poor defense. That's one plus, two ehs, and a minus. So yeah... I'm sticking with Melo as an above average scorer and... a whole lot of hype. ^_^


You know who else you can say the same about regarding pluses and minuses? Kevin Durant, who while a more efficient scorer has a lower assist percentage, rebound percentage and higher turnover percentage with around the same usage rate. And it's not like Kevin is winning any defensive awards (though, admittedly, he's not terrible in that aspect).


Durant's offense is more valuable than Carmelo's because he's more efficient.

By offensive rating:

Code: Select all

ortg    Durant  Carmelo LgAvg
2008    100     109     107.5
2009    111     105     108.3
2010    118     110     107.6
2011    115     109     107.3
2012    114     102     103.9
Avg     111.6   107.0   106.9


Durant's 5-year AVERAGE is better than Carmelo's most efficient season (he has one other season with a 110). And that includes Durant's inefficient rookie year.

Carmelo's efficiency is okay for such a high usage player. With his skills, he could almost certainly boost his efficiency and be more valuable to his team by taking fewer bad shots. Yeah, he makes some, but he misses a lot of them too.


Well yeah, my post wasn't to say Melo and Durant are on the same level but rather that a pure "pluses and minuses" assessment of him doesn't do the guy justice.
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Re: Official Trade Thread XVIII 

Post#1416 » by miller31time » Wed Mar 14, 2012 4:57 pm

Nivek wrote:
truwizfan4evr wrote:Carmelo Anthony want out of New York. it's the same thing with Denver. He was not good enough to get the team to win so he blames it on the organization. Just face it melo you overrated and never been that good in the first place. I hope melo don't come to the wizards or we really be in bad shape with his selfish play and large contract. He is a cancer to any team he plays for and to any of the team he goes on in the future. He reminds me of Gilbert arenas and Iverson. They all kill your team chemistry.


If he reminds you of Arenas, you need to get your memory checked. Arenas was a stone-cold offensive machine -- an uber-efficient, high-usage weapon. Hughes, Jamison, Butler all had terrific seasons playing with Gil. Deshawn Stevenson resurrected his career playing off Arenas. Gil was scoring 28+ a game, but also getting 6+ assists. And his team's offenses were terrific -- top 3-4 in the league when he was at his peak.

Now defense was an issue with Arenas, as it was with basically everyone on the roster not named Haywood.

But don't confuse the stuff that happened after Gil got hurt to what Arenas was pre-injury. Before the injury, the guy was phenomenal.


Interesting article about Nate Silver's theory on Anthony, written before Melo stepped on the court for New York. I thought of it because of what you mentioned about Gilbert making his teammates better.

Nate Silver is primarily a baseball guy. (Or is that a politics guy?) But he weighed in on basketball last weekend -- specifically, the prospect of Carmelo Anthony joining the Knicks.

Some advanced stats underrate Anthony because they assume a quality shot can be created at will, every time down the floor. The logic is that if Anthony (an inefficient scorer) doesn't shoot, the team will just find someone else who can convert at a similar rate. And since Anthony isn't the most complete player in the world when you look beyond his scoring, it stands to reason that formulas which undervalue shot creation will see little reason to pay him top dollar.

But as Nate argues, Anthony is making his teammates better by taking the pressure to create off of them. His skills allow a team to surround him with defense-minded, low-usage players that compliment him, setting up something of a division of labor on the court. Silver lends credibility to this notion by showing that when players play alongside Carmelo, their offensive efficiencies increase.

I tend to agree with Silver's premise. This is why I constantly harp on "skill curves" and usage-efficiency tradeoffs, and why offensive statistical plus-minus contains a squared term for true shooting attempts per minute -- because there's a great deal of evidence that the marginal cost of possession usage declines as a player's offensive role increases. Unlike baseball, where "usage" is evenly spread out across all players and the only concern is an efficiency metric like OPS, the ability to create "at bats" is an important consideration.

In that way, Carmelo Anthony is just the latest in a long line of players who have been confounding statistical analysts for decades (before him, it was Allen Iverson). But as Silver, Kevin Pelton, and Henry Abbott are noting this week, one measuring stick for the evolution of basketball analysis is precisely how it deals with players like Anthony. I can't say he'd be the best fit for the Knicks specifically (New York -- 7th in offense, 23rd in defense, & featuring a player who already commands 31% of possessions -- seems a curious destination for an offense-only gunner), but in general it's useful to recognize his offensive value beyond pure efficiency metrics.


Link

Also, there's something to be said for consistency. I remember the debate back when Arenas was tearing up the league and there was the whole "Arenas vs. Melo" debate. We obviously sided with Arenas since he was more efficient but the Anthony group brought up a valid point -- while Arenas was more efficient, he was also much more inconsistent from game to game. Anthony was basically a straight line.
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Re: Official Trade Thread XVIII 

Post#1417 » by nate33 » Wed Mar 14, 2012 5:07 pm

Dat2U wrote:Not interested in trading a chance of landing Anthony Davis for Melo. Even if it's only a 20% or 25% chance.

Frankly, I'm not interested in trading our 2012 1st for anyone until we know exactly what the pick is.

Now after the lottery, if we end up with the 4th or 5th pick in the draft, then I might consider a trade.

Are we even talking about trading a 1st round pick for Melo? Good grief! I wouldn't touch that with a 10 foot pole.

I thought the premise here was to acquire Melo for peanuts under the premise that NY simply wants to unload him and his contract. If that's the case, then Rafael122 makes a fair point. If we could go into next season with a core of Wall, Melo, Booker and Anthony, that's a damn good foundation. Seraphin, a stronger Vesely, Singleton, Crawford and Mack would make a serviceable and cheap second unit. Find a Jodie Meeks type of spot up shooter at SG and maybe a Steve Novak type of stretch 4 and we're in business. Cap wise, we'd still be in pretty good shape except during the last year of Melo's contract (when Wall would be signing a new max contract).

It would really behoove us to trade Blatche's 3-year contract for someone with a 2-year contract (Ben Gordon, anyone?). That might not be in the cards right now, but if Blatche heeds the boos and gets himself in shape next year, he might be movable. Actually, we could just amnesty Blatche (since Rashard would presumably be the "filler" in the Melo trade).
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Re: Official Trade Thread XVIII 

Post#1418 » by miller31time » Wed Mar 14, 2012 5:13 pm

nate33 wrote:
Dat2U wrote:Not interested in trading a chance of landing Anthony Davis for Melo. Even if it's only a 20% or 25% chance.

Frankly, I'm not interested in trading our 2012 1st for anyone until we know exactly what the pick is.

Now after the lottery, if we end up with the 4th or 5th pick in the draft, then I might consider a trade.

Are we even talking about trading a 1st round pick for Melo? Good grief! I wouldn't touch that with a 10 foot pole.


This is about as low as Melo's trade value may ever get and it's STILL not low enough for New York (or any sane team) to be willing to unload him for cap relief.

Being realistic, you have to give up something to potentially get a diamond in the rough. Anthony is underperforming in a bad system in New York right now but would most likely be back to his old ways in a new setting. That, in my opinion, is well-worth us trading (in all likelihood) Harrison Barnes.
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Re: Official Trade Thread XVIII 

Post#1419 » by nate33 » Wed Mar 14, 2012 5:21 pm

miller31time wrote:
nate33 wrote:Are we even talking about trading a 1st round pick for Melo? Good grief! I wouldn't touch that with a 10 foot pole.


This is about as low as Melo's trade value may ever get and it's STILL not low enough for New York (or any sane team) to be willing to unload him for cap relief.

Being realistic, you have to give up something to potentially get a diamond in the rough. Anthony is underperforming in a bad system in New York right now but would most likely be back to his old ways in a new setting. That, in my opinion, is well-worth us trading (in all likelihood) Harrison Barnes.

Give it time.

That team is put together so poorly that something has to give. If NY doesn't unload Melo soon, they're going to run out of potential suitors as the higher luxtax penalties kick in. The more Melo whines about his role there, the lower his trade value will go.

There is little chance that Melo is moved at the Trade Deadline, but things could get real interesting if he demands a trade in the summer. This summer, Rashard Lewis' contract will suddenly become a valuable trading chip. It'll be worth $21M as filler, but the team who receives him can cut him for $10M or so.

All that said, I'm not all that interested in Melo. This team already has a hero ball epidemic. We don't need another infected player.
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Re: Official Trade Thread XVIII 

Post#1420 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Wed Mar 14, 2012 5:25 pm

Rafael122 wrote:We had a chance to trade McGee for Harden apparently in 2009. *sigh*

But, then there would probably be no Wall pick due to the Wizard's better record. Harden would have meant no Javaris Crittenton for Gil to threaten with guns. So, I think Gil might still be a Wizard, arthritc knees and all if Harden were traded for.

Realistically, Young had only been in the league two seasons. The Wizards had thought he was the SG of the future. They probably wanted Harden but couldn't justify trading Javale after one season to get another SG.

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