2012 NBA Draft - Part II

[tontoz]

+1000, CCJ.

Barnes strikes me as a great stats/bad team guy waiting to happen.... or the Nick Young of SF's.

If Nick had a high (or even decent) IQ he might actually be worth what he is asking for. If he had any court sense at all he would probably make better rotations on D, take better shots, notice teamates when they are open and get more rebounds.

Barnes is the leading scorer of a 1 seeded team with 2 teamates who are probable lottery picks. I was definitely against him for a long time but he is getting to the line more now and has shown some post moves which could definitely be useful. And i havent seen anyone say that he is a low IQ guy.

This team has squat at the 3 right now. Setting aside the BPA issue (since we don't know where the pick will fall) there is no bigger need on this team than a 3 who can shoot.

As a side note i would not be averse to trading down if TRob is gone when the Wizards pick.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

CCJ, you know how much I love the diamond-in-the-rough stories, the little guys from little schools who make it to the show, and all that. Thing is, we also have to be realistic that those guys can be significant players at the next level, but the odds are astronomical that they will be stars, especially not superstars.

Here are the colleges/high schools of the 2012 All-Star team members:

Syracuse
St. Vincent-St. Mary HS (OH)
Memphis
Marquette
SW Atlanta Christian Academy (GA)
Georgia Tech
Duke
Georgetown
Arizona
Arkansas
Kansas
Kentucky
Illinois

Texas
Oklahoma
Lower Merion HS (PA)
Wake Forest
St. Joseph HS (NJ)
Texas
Barcelona, Spain
UCLA
Santa Clara
Wurzburg, Germany
Paris, France
UCLA

Obviously, there are no more prep-to-pro guys coming out, but it's safe to say that those guys: a) were identified by the age of 18 as being stars in the making, and b) would have gone to a Duke or UNC or UK or whatever if they had gone to college. (Steve Nash graduated HS in 1992, so I hardly think his example is indicative of today's environment.)

Fact is, you're far more likely to get an All-Star drafting from overseas than you are from a US kid who was not recognized as a future star by the time he was 18.

So it's fun to find the Millsaps and Farieds and others - and I'm right there with you. But those guys will always be at best the 4th-8th options on championship teams. Sad fact is, your cornerstones simply have to be blue chippers these days.

Sev, I'm actually being dad right now--not obsessing over the computer. (Well, I'm in the library with one son.) I don't really have the time to respond to such a great post with the justice it deserves.

Here is all I have for you, real quick. What determines stars as much as ability is opportunity, IMO. When a player gets drafted has a lot to do with how soon that player plays. Where a player goes to school has a lot to do with when and if that player is drafted. Overseas impresses guys like Grunfeld. Big schools impress Chad Ford, John Givony etc, the most. Still, they know talent.

My thought about stars is advanced metrics and due diligence on their backgrounds can help you sniff them out, no matter where they go to school--unless they do go straight to pros.

Potential stars: Robinson, Tony Mitchell (most underrated), MKG, Beal, Sullinger (I've been underrating him out of fear of injury), Cody Zeller (better than Tyler and a potential multi-all star, IMO), Damian Lillard, Will Barton and a few I'm too preoccupied to come up with.

My point is you can tell with some of the smaller-school guys by their head-to-head with the big names, and/or their HS backgrounds. I was beyond sure about Faried by the way he mauled Parsons, Macklin, Cousins, the Morrises, Aldrich before he ever got to the NBA.

I missed on Almond because I didn't look closely enough at Rice's competition. I totally didn't think about his athleticism, or lack thereof. Same with Morrison and somewhat Redick.

The guy I really like in this draft in terms of star too low is Will Barton. Dude competes, wins, and is more than prepared to step in and be an NBA stud at SG. Tyreke Evans knows this and has said so.

All for now.

[fishercob]

11 rebounds for Brad Beal today. He's a 6'4" scoring guard. I hope we get him.

[go'stags]

I get the fascination with Beal, but before I draft a guy whose supposed biggest strength is his shooting, I think I'd need to see him, you know, make more shots.

[Earth2Ted]

I mentioned this in the other thread, but Nene is a floor bound guy who operates well in the paint so if the Wizards are smart, it should probably eliminate Sullinger as a top 6 guy for them. Davis and Robinson would be much better PFs because of their mobility and ability to block shots.

Just wanted to bring this back to the discussion about how Nene is going to change our game plan going into the draft. As we have seen, Nene is an interesting combo of physical presence and not so great rebounding- and he basically is not, and does not want to be, a center. We also lose some length as well with Nene.

Anthony Davis provides that rebounding, length, and defense- but he is just a stud player so he would be a no brainer. I agree that Sullinger is probably lower down on our list because of his lack of length and mobility. Robinson is interesting now- he rebounds well, but lack of size now becomes a bigger issue with McGee gone.

Does this bring Leonard and Zeller more into the picture as centers- I don't know a lot about those guys, but they don't appear to be elite rebounders either.

Does the fact that McGee and Young (and probably Blatche in the near future) are gone make us more willing to take on a project like Drummond? I figure most everyone here would say no.

Or is this opening up a scenario for DeMarcus Cousins to come to DC? And I STILL say I would trade the pick for him...

I just hope that Ernie (or whoever replaces him) does not overlook the deficiencies in rebounding and automatically eliminate everyone but the wing players from consideration.

[sashae]

@Benjammin I don't think I'd make /any/ decisions about our draft pick based on who's on the roster today. Just because we have Booker, Seraphin and Nene, I wouldn't skip out on Sullinger (or Robinson, or whomever) based on the fact that "we've already got guys there" -- outside of drafting a PG (and even that is debatable) I'd say that more than anything this team needs talent over anything else. If it's decided that Sullinger is the best guy available at our pick, then we should take him.

[Ruzious]

I get the fascination with Beal, but before I draft a guy whose supposed biggest strength is his shooting, I think I'd need to see him, you know, make more shots.

Asked and received. In his last 2 games (arguably the most important games of his career so far), he's made 13 of 23 FG attempts - including 5 3's. Not to mention, he's got 19 rebounds - and out-played MKG. The thing about him - even when he's not shooting, he's contributing in other areas. I think he's the best guard prospect in the country.

[Ruzious]

I mentioned this in the other thread, but Nene is a floor bound guy who operates well in the paint so if the Wizards are smart, it should probably eliminate Sullinger as a top 6 guy for them. Davis and Robinson would be much better PFs because of their mobility and ability to block shots.

Just wanted to bring this back to the discussion about how Nene is going to change our game plan going into the draft. As we have seen, Nene is an interesting combo of physical presence and not so great rebounding- and he basically is not, and does not want to be, a center. We also lose some length as well with Nene.

Anthony Davis provides that rebounding, length, and defense- but he is just a stud player so he would be a no brainer. I agree that Sullinger is probably lower down on our list because of his lack of length and mobility. Robinson is interesting now- he rebounds well, but lack of size now becomes a bigger issue with McGee gone.

Does this bring Leonard and Zeller more into the picture as centers- I don't know a lot about those guys, but they don't appear to be elite rebounders either.

Does the fact that McGee and Young (and probably Blatche in the near future) are gone make us more willing to take on a project like Drummond? I figure most everyone here would say no.

Or is this opening up a scenario for DeMarcus Cousins to come to DC? And I STILL say I would trade the pick for him...

I just hope that Ernie (or whoever replaces him) does not overlook the deficiencies in rebounding and automatically eliminate everyone but the wing players from consideration.

One of the positives of trading for Nene, is that it takes away the chance that they make a reach for a center. Of course, that doesn't mean they won't make an error in judgment by overrating a center and picking him - but they won't draft a center out of need.

And Leonard is a center I really hope they stay clear of. There's no doubt that he's got tremendous talent and even impressive skills, but there's something intangible about that kid that's missing. He's got a Cherokee Parks kinda vibe - without the tattoos. I gotta figure Drummond goes back to school. I like Drummond better than Leonard, but when you shoot 29% from the line and show no improvement in your entire game in your frosh year, your'e not ready for prime time.

[Benjammin]

@Benjammin I don't think I'd make /any/ decisions about our draft pick based on who's on the roster today. Just because we have Booker, Seraphin and Nene, I wouldn't skip out on Sullinger (or Robinson, or whomever) based on the fact that "we've already got guys there" -- outside of drafting a PG (and even that is debatable) I'd say that more than anything this team needs talent over anything else. If it's decided that Sullinger is the best guy available at our pick, then we should take him.

If they decide Sullinger is the best guy available and EG is the one doing the picking, then we're all in trouble. I agree, in general, that if Sullinger is the best on the board you take him anyway. But stylistically Nene is pretty active on the floor, but he's not a shot blocking threat and not really a go get it rebounder so between Robinson and Sullinger, Robinson meshes better with Nene. I think Robinson's ceiling is higher than Sullinger's anyway.

[nate33]

I could see a Robinson/Nene pairing working out well. Nene plays good post D and can score at the center spot, but he's merely a so-so rebounder. Robinson is a great rebounder so that fills the rebounding void.

The only problem with the lineup is that it lacks an intimidating shot blocker. Blocking shots is a bit overrated as a helpful skill though. I think we'd do fine with two bigs who play good post D, good position help D, and grab boards; even if they don't block shots.

All that said, I'm not sure how much better Robinson will be than Booker, so there's a small concern that drafting him doesn't really help us all that much. For that reason, I'd definitely explore a trade down scenario. If we're sitting at #3 and can move down to #6 and land a guy like Beal while also dumping Blatche and picking up a second pick in the teens, it might be worth consideration.

[Ruzious]

I could see a Robinson/Nene pairing working out well. Nene plays good post D and can score at the center spot, but he's merely a so-so rebounder. Robinson is a great rebounder so that fills the rebounding void.

The only problem with the lineup is that it lacks an intimidating shot blocker. Blocking shots is a bit overrated as a helpful skill though. I think we'd do fine with two bigs who play good post D, good position help D, and grab boards; even if they don't block shots.

All that said, I'm not sure how much better Robinson will be than Booker, so there's a small concern that drafting him doesn't really help us all that much. For that reason, I'd definitely explore a trade down scenario. If we're sitting at #3 and can move down to #6 and land a guy like Beal while also dumping Blatche and picking up a second pick in the teens, it might be worth consideration.

Plus if you get Beal, you can get a shooting PF like Ilyasova or Anderson in free agency - who also rebounds well. And maybe you do a good job of scouting and find a Landry Fields type in the second round or in free agency. It'll really take 3 moves like that to address the glaring shooting needs of the team.

[Ruzious]

Another guard who's showing signs of playing his way into the discussion of the Wiz pick is Dion Waiters of Syracuse. It started a couple games ago when he hit 7 3's. He had always been a questionable long-range shooter before then. Now there's reason for optimisim. He's off to a great start today.

He's really put together at a shade under 6'5 - and he's a super-aggressive defender who gets a lot of steals. If he convinces the Wiz he can hit 3's at a good clip, he's gotta be considered. I like that he has twice as many assists as to's. And low to's and high steals sounds like a good combo. And even though there are more veteran starters on the Cuse team, he seems like their leader. As he goes, they go. I'm impressed.

[miller31time]

I get the fascination with Beal, but before I draft a guy whose supposed biggest strength is his shooting, I think I'd need to see him, you know, make more shots.

Asked and received. In his last 2 games (arguably the most important games of his career so far), he's made 13 of 23 FG attempts - including 5 3's. Not to mention, he's got 19 rebounds - and out-played MKG. The thing about him - even when he's not shooting, he's contributing in other areas. I think he's the best guard prospect in the country.

Yeah, Beal has been great. I could easily see his game translating to the next level.

With shooters, it's important they have a good stroke but besides that, I'm looking at if they can do something else to help the team. Beal doesn't appear to be a bad defender and we all know about his rebounding ability from the guard position.

As of right now, I have him 2nd on my draft board, behind Anthony Davis. I like Robinson but believe we can get a good PF out of free agency. A Wall/Beal backcourt could prove to be just what the doctor ordered for this team.

[thinker07]

Chad Forde's new lotto machine is out and these are his order for Wizards preferences:

1 - Davis
2 - MKG
3 - Robinson
4 - Beal

[truwizfan4evr]

We need new orleans to lose tonight. so they can be a gameup on us

[doclinkin]

Three of the players I've been tracking all year played well today. Jae Crowder, Royce White, and Andre Roberson showing up in big games. All three looked like they'd fit a roster. Would love to have 'em here.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

Chad Forde's new lotto machine is out and these are his order for Wizards preferences:

1 - Davis
2 - MKG
3 - Robinson
4 - Beal

that's more or less where I am...

Though I fear we will pick 5th...

And worse, that Grunfail will be doing the picking

[truwizfan4evr]

Can someone explain what does everyone like about Michael Kidd-Gilchrist game? And what makes him a attractive prospect in the draft?

[Illuminaire]

I like Crowder too, Doc. Been watching his tourney games, very impressed with his activity level and production. I think he'll be around in the second round, and would be a very solid pickup.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Crowder is better than MKG right now. Jae Crowder is as can't miss as they get.