Heat have 36% chance of winning?

andremcosta · Post #1 » by **andremcosta** » Sat Mar 17, 2012 2:23 am

I don't know if it's a place to post this, and don't even know if you guys here think it's stupid, since there's always some people saying stats are useless. Many also should think subjective probability is also useless or not even exists.

Sometimes I like to check sportsbets odds to see how teams are seen by people. In most sports I'm sure that those odds are correct, otherwise it would be easy to make money from betting.

Going to the point, most bookers are offering odds that put the top5 teams like this:

Heat: 36%
Chicago: 18%
OKC: 16%
Lakers: 7%
Spurs: 6%

It feels to me that Heat is overrated, even after the recent losses. How do you guys see this?

andremcosta · Post #2 » by **andremcosta** » Sat Mar 17, 2012 2:25 am

I don't wanna go into sportsbetter discussion, I know it's not the place.

It's really about discussing how good or bad a team is related to other contenders.

Doormatt · Post #3 » by **Doormatt** » Sat Mar 17, 2012 9:05 am

i dont know much about betting and odds, but it looks about right. i dont know if id put the heat that far ahead of the bulls though. and of course matchups are very important, the % could change depending on seeding and who ends up playing who.

and of course, most importantly, health.

Wannabe MEP · Post #4 » by **Wannabe MEP** » Sat Mar 17, 2012 3:14 pm

I don't know their formula, but I know Hollinger's. Hollinger has the Heat at 34.4%, so it's similar. He uses mostly point differential with SOS and gives extra weight to recent performance. Completely ignores W-L. I agree with the general principles behind that method, but there are certainly some major question marks.

For example, the Heat get more credit than the Bulls for their last 10 games because they have a slightly tougher SOS and a slightly higher point differential, even though they're 6-4 while the Bulls are 8-2. I'd argue that the Bulls have the better body of work over that time (including a head-to-head victory over the Heat). The Heat's point differential is padded by a 30-point victory over the Nets. The formula doesn't have a way to control for that kind of thing, so I believe some teams get slightly overrated by preying on mediocrity. I believe the Heat were overrated last season because of that kind of thing.

My suggestions for Hollinger's formula:
1) Pace-adjust.
2) A dominant victory is a dominant victory. Maybe find some way to cap one-game point-differential: no extra credit for beating a sh*tty team by 40.

SideshowBob · Post #5 » by **SideshowBob** » Sat Mar 17, 2012 7:38 pm

Basketball Reference gives them a 23.3% chance of winning it all

http://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi

Explanation

http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/playoff_prob.html

Jasen777 · Post #6 » by **Jasen777** » Wed Mar 21, 2012 7:32 pm

andremcosta wrote:It feels to me that Heat is overrated, even after the recent losses. How do you guys see this?

It's likely all the teams are overrated due to the house advantage.