Nick Young traded to Clippers/McGee to Denver/Nene to DC

[montestewart]

A few folks brought up some names as examples that the aging effect isn't universal or linear. I agree with that. Maybe Nene will also be one of the exceptions. If so, it may turn out to be a decent trade. Odds are that he's going to be in serious decline the last two years of this contract. I think that's a bad bet to make at this point. Time will tell.

Going only by memory, I recall seeing various studies that qualify the general decline trends with observations regarding number of minutes played (that could work in Nene's favor) and style of play, especially for bigs. No surprise, finesse, low contact, low leaps players do better on average than bruising and/or leaping players. Nene isn't much on the leaping, but it seems his body takes some contact. Could go either way, especially since (I think) he's had a knee surgery in the past.

Saw both basketball and baseball studies (the latter Bill James) that suggested an extended peak or later peak and a slower decline in better players who rely so much on their brains. Their smarts, skills, and experience offset the physical decline. This fits with JJ's observation of great older players leading top teams. MJ, Olajuwon, Malone, Stockton, etc. did so well into their 30s, and Bill Walton came back from a "career-ending" injury to win 6th Man of the Year at age 33. Don't know how Nene fits here, but he does seem to rely more on his head than most recent Wizards.

Something else has been niggling at me about this trade -- another reason to dislike it. The Wizards just let Ernie Grunfeld commit the team to a long-term deal with a 29-year old player. This suggests that Ernie is going to stay in his position. I'd been thinking for months that Ernie would be gone when his contract expired. This trade suggests that Ernie is going to get a new contract -- that he's going to be sticking around. I find that to be a crushing disappointment.

Really bothered here as well. I've been buying tickets for over thirty years, buying packages of one sort or another for eight, and apparently the team only wants to hear ticket buyer feedback when it's all in. I can't tell whether not renewing would send a message, as they seem to state an attitude that ticket sales are no problem (whether they believe this or not, who knows?) but in place of sending a critique to Leonsis and getting a defensive non-response, it seems my only option, and it would sure save me some money. If EG's it, I must a-quit?

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Thinker: The point is that he's either getting way too much money for comfort or he's taking the qualifying offer. I don't see any way he signs a long term deal at under 10 mil per season. It's a lose, lose situation.

I don't agree that McGee would decline to sign a 4 year $36 million offer in favor or a one year QO of $6 million. That's simply too much money to leave on the table and risk. Mind you I believe that some team will likely offer him that or even more. My larger point was that Washington didn't trade McGee because they thought he wanted a $14 mil per year contract. I think they traded him because they were done with him and wanted to move on.

I agree, thinker07.

I predict McGee is going to get that kind of offer and be very pleased to remain in Denver. I would guess something around $38-42M and 4 years. Karl doesn't even play Faried that many minutes. Due to minutes being crunched, Javale's numbers might be less than they were with the Wizards. I expect his impact will be very positive, but other GMs will proceed cautiously due to him being just a role player (at first). I don't think other GMs want to throw money at Javale.

[thinker07]

I don't agree that McGee would decline to sign a 4 year $36 million offer in favor or a one year QO of $6 million. That's simply too much money to leave on the table and risk. Mind you I believe that some team will likely offer him that or even more. My larger point was that Washington didn't trade McGee because they thought he wanted a $14 mil per year contract. I think they traded him because they were done with him and wanted to move on.

I think he would. It's only a $3M pay cut next year and it would give him much better negotiating leverage in 2013 because there would be no RFA rights to scare away bidders.

McGee's biggest problem isn't effort or work ethic, it's his wildly inflated perception of his basketball ability. That kind of ego is exactly the type of thing would encourage him to roll the dice on a one-year contract in the hope of landing a bigger one next year.

I think that you're oversimplifying the decision that would have confronted McGee. When we had NY in this spot at the outset of the season, everyone discussed how it would be hard for NY to come back after this year. With all of the hurt feelings AND the team not being really committed to the player - that disrupts what kind of year the player can have playing under the QO. A) The player is now playing for a contract - almost certainly with another team - so he is going to be even more selfish and non-team oriented. B) The team has no incentive to allow the player to work through any tough spot and every incentive to use the opportunity to develop someone else on the bench. Why let a player pad his stats so he can get a better contract somewhere else? There are a lot more risks than just taking a lower salary for just one year - injury being the biggest one.

So you think that McGee would necessarily sign a QO (I checked and actually the QO for him is not $6 mil - it's $3.494 mil according to Hoopshype) instead of signing a 4 year $36 million contract? He would be risking $32.5 mil if he got hurt. He also forgoes $5.5 mil in the first year - that is one hell of a lot of spoonfuls of cinnamon! And McGee would also assume the risk that his team - now no longer committed to him - might not play him in a way that would maximize his contract offers the following year, and maybe that's the biggest risk of all - after injury. Mind you, NY apparently had a pretty easy decision because he didn't have much of any kind of offer - I think McGee will.

Somewhat of a parallel would be applying the franchise tag in the NFL - depending on the situation it often does not lead to a banner year for the player - and can even lead to worse disharmony in the locker room.

[nate33]

So you think that McGee would necessarily sign a QO (I checked and actually the QO for him is not $6 mil - it's $3.494 mil according to Hoopshype) instead of signing a 4 year $36 million contract? He would be risking $32.5 mil if he got hurt. He also forgoes $5.5 mil in the first year - that is one hell of a lot of spoonfuls of cinnamon! And McGee would also assume the risk that his team - now no longer committed to him - might not play him in a way that would maximize his contract offers the following year, and maybe that's the biggest risk of all - after injury. Mind you, NY apparently had a pretty easy decision because he didn't have much of any kind of offer - I think McGee will.

I believe I read on BulletsForever.com that the Wizards offered Nick somewhere between $5M and $6M a year and Nick turned it down.

[thinker07]

So you think that McGee would necessarily sign a QO (I checked and actually the QO for him is not $6 mil - it's $3.494 mil according to Hoopshype) instead of signing a 4 year $36 million contract? He would be risking $32.5 mil if he got hurt. He also forgoes $5.5 mil in the first year - that is one hell of a lot of spoonfuls of cinnamon! And McGee would also assume the risk that his team - now no longer committed to him - might not play him in a way that would maximize his contract offers the following year, and maybe that's the biggest risk of all - after injury. Mind you, NY apparently had a pretty easy decision because he didn't have much of any kind of offer - I think McGee will.

I believe I read on BulletsForever.com that the Wizards offered Nick somewhere between $5M and $6M a year and Nick turned it down.

I saw that as well - but I also understood the Wiz only offered that amount for 2 years. So the gap between 2 years $10 mil and 4 years $36 mil (what NY was reported to want - $9 mil per year) is pretty big -- $26 mil.

[thinker07]

Denver signing Wilson Chandler to a 5 year (including the current year) $37 mil deal is another indication of why their willingness to trade Nene doesn't necessarily mean that he believe that he can't play any more or is in decline. I think they looked at their roster and decided that they wanted/needed Chandler more than they wanted/needed Nene. Who knows maybe they didn't even want McGee that much. Maybe they just needed to clear cap to sign Chandler and Nene was the best choice for them on how to do it.

[MOrgil]

What's taking so long for Nene to play? I hope he's not depressed like Rashard Lewis...

[Nivek]

Denver signing Wilson Chandler to a 5 year (including the current year) $37 mil deal is another indication of why their willingness to trade Nene doesn't necessarily mean that he believe that he can't play any more or is in decline. I think they looked at their roster and decided that they wanted/needed Chandler more than they wanted/needed Nene. Who knows maybe they didn't even want McGee that much. Maybe they just needed to clear cap to sign Chandler and Nene was the best choice for them on how to do it.

The Chandler deal says the Nuggets had a better, cheaper option than the guy they signed to a 5-year contract just 3 months ago. A guy who was in his 10th year with the team. A guy who had put down serious roots in the community. Says something that they were willing to give him up to sign an average SF and to take a look-see at Javale McGee -- a guy known as much for his spectacular mistakes as he is for his spectacular highlights.

Something radically changed in Denver's thinking about Nene in the past 3 months. Three months ago, they signed him to a lucrative 5-year contract. Three days ago, they traded him to tryout a talented guy who makes lots of mistakes, and for cap room -- some of which they've used on a middling free agent.

[thinker07]

Nivek,

I get that obviously Denver no longer wanted Nene that much. My point is that perhaps them not wanting him any more could be for other reasons than just that he is old, injury prone, in decline, and can't play that well any more. Teams never trade players that they love, are central to the team's success, and are on good affordable contracts. Teams ONLY trade players to create circumstances - through other players or money issues -- that they think will make their team better. So OBVIOUSLY if Denver was willing to trade him then they valued someone else or something else BETTER.

Just because Denver didn't want Nene with his contract any more doesn't necessarily mean that he won't be a good addition for the Wiz who are in a VERY different situation with a VERY different team than Denver.

Most guys are with women who some other guy didn't want. And most guys with a woman have been with another woman that didn't want them. Does that necessarily mean that you're a piece a poo or the woman you're with is a piece of poo? No. Time will answer those questions.

[DCZards]

I can't wait for Nene to suit up and play for the Zards so that maybe we can get beyond all of this speculation as to why Denver traded him or what he's going to bring to the Zards.

I know some of you hate to give Ernie any credit, but maybe he traded McGee because Seraphin deserved more minutes (he's playing pretty well right now) and Nene can help show Kevin and the other younguns' how to be a pro in the locker room, on the practice court and during games. (Phil and Steve just said that Seraphin thinks he can learn a lot from Nene.)

Chandler, btw, is better than a "middling free agent." He's actually a decent, all-around NBA player.

[Nivek]

thinker -- Agreed: the fact that Denver traded Nene doesn't mean Nene is finished as a player. My expectation is that he'll get back to something close to what he'd been the preceding 3 years. My concern in trading for him is really the last 2 years of the contract. The odds are that Nene will be declining just as the rest of the team is ready for a push.

Zards: By "middling" I really mean the word you used -- "decent". Chandler is average to a little better than average. He's a nice player, and I wouldn't have minded having him in Washington. The point remains that Denver traded Nene in part so they would have money to sign a guy that's decent -- a starter-caliber player who will do a solid job for his team. Nice player, but not a world beater. I think we'd all be shocked if he ever makes an All-Star team.

[thinker07]

thinker -- Agreed: the fact that Denver traded Nene doesn't mean Nene is finished as a player. My expectation is that he'll get back to something close to what he'd been the preceding 3 years. My concern in trading for him is really the last 2 years of the contract. The odds are that Nene will be declining just as the rest of the team is ready for a push.

Zards: By "middling" I really mean the word you used -- "decent". Chandler is average to a little better than average. He's a nice player, and I wouldn't have minded having him in Washington. The point remains that Denver traded Nene in part so they would have money to sign a guy that's decent -- a starter-caliber player who will do a solid job for his team. Nice player, but not a world beater. I think we'd all be shocked if he ever makes an All-Star team.

Again though, these moves are about bigger issues sometimes than just is Nene a good player. Nene is likely much less valuable to Denver when they have Harrington, Faried, Mozgov, Koufos, and Anderson. And they signed Nene to his big extension before they had much of any look at Faried and not that much of a look at Mozgov or Koufos. Maybe they saw that with those guys on the roster, they just didn't need Nene and his contract. Again, who even knows if Denver is really that interested in McGee or just wanted to clear Nene's contract? Now on the Wiz's roster (without McGee) there is Seraphin who has only played a handful of minutes, Baltche, Booker, and sort of Vesely as their "big men." Presumably that could be why the deal is good for both teams -- Denver has a lot of options which make Nene too expensive - the Wiz don't and would be facing the Summer with a lot of uncertainty about getting another good big man.

[tontoz]

Nick got to the line 8 times today wtf. He has done that only 2 other times all year.

[fugop]

Kevin,

Do you know if there are any stats on the expected future performance of a player given the players' current production/age? What can someone expect of a 29 year old player with Nene's production?

[Nivek]

thinker: You sound like you're refuting me, but we're making the same point, I think. At least from Denver's perspective. Denver had better options. That doesn't mean that Nene sucks, but it made him expendable. Which is quite the change from just 3 months ago when they gave him a 5-year contract.

My objections to the trade are really about those last 2 years, and the fact that it was Ernie who made the deal. And, the implications it has for who's going to be running the team for the next few years.

[dangermouse]

Seraphin's play is making this trade and Nene taking his sweet ass time much easier to swallow.

[TheBigThree]

Nick got to the line 8 times today wtf. He has done that only 2 other times all year.

With Blake occupying defenders Nick won't have any trouble penetrating. If I had to bet I'd bet good money on Nick having much more of an impact on the Clippers than McGee will this year on Denver.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Nick got to the line 8 times today wtf. He has done that only 2 other times all year.

Remember the LAL game where he had 6 assists? With blocks and steals? Nick is a guy who has a strange motivation. He's reminds me of the Randy Moss "I can play when I want to play." Nick took something like 5 years to get out of HS. But look at him, he's been in the NBA for years and years.

I didn't like him with the Wizards but there's absolutely nothing to prevent Nick from having Rip Hamilton-like success with LAC. Nick is a better defender than Rip. Rip wasn't a great three point shooter when he went to DET. Nick already can shoot the three. I posted Nick's head-to-head meetings vs Kobe. Nick has badly outshot him. I posted his head-to-heads against Wade. The last three meetings, Nick has 90 points, D Wade has 87 points. Nick can play well against the best.

I don't know why he refused to pass in DC. But nothing will surprise me with him motivated to be back in LA with a good team. Eight FTs just indicates how hard he's driving tot he hole and how badly Young wants it. Wait til he gets on a hot streak.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Seraphin's play is making this trade and Nene taking his sweet ass time much easier to swallow.

When Nene comes and he's not 100% who sits? Booker or Seraphin?

How about next season, what if healthy Nene isn't better than Seraphin or Booker? How will that $13M contract look then?

[willbcocks]

I like this game. Now I'll assume he's healthy for four years and puts up career best numbers. How will that $13M look then?