Lebron James 4th Quarter Splits (Lebron's Passiveness)

[SideshowBob]

I mentioned in one of the game threads the other day that Lebron seems to perform better in the fourth quarter when Spoelstra starts him. On the other hand, putting him in with 6, 7, or 8 minutes results in him playing passive. I decided to compile his 4th quarter numbers for the season and see for myself how he plays.

Here are his overall 4th quarter numbers for the season and the per36 minutes. Note that OT games are just considered extensions of the 4th quarter by me, and that will show in the overall minutes.

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4th Quarter/OT

GP   MP      FGA    FTA    TRB    AST    PTS     eFG%   TS%   TOV%
37   8.4     4.1    2.3    2.0    1.5    5.7    .483   .561   .086

GP   MP      FGA    FTA    TRB    AST    PTS     eFG%   TS%   TOV%
37   36.0    17.5   9.8    8.6    6.5    24.5   .483   .561   .086

Now, here are his numbers in games he STARTS the fourth quarter, not necessarily finishes it (only 1 game went to OT)

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4th Quarter/OT

GP   MP      FGA    FTA    TRB    AST    PTS     eFG%   TS%   TOV%
14   9.5     5.2    2.6    2.1    1.1    8.4    .610   .655   .079

GP   MP      FGA    FTA    TRB    AST    PTS     eFG%   TS%   TOV%
14   36.0    19.8   10.0   8.1    4.3    31.7   .610   .655   .079

Finally, here are his numbers in games he DOESN'T start the fourth quarter.

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4th Quarter/OT

GP   MP      FGA    FTA    TRB    AST    PTS     eFG%   TS%   TOV%
23   7.7     3.4    2.9    1.9    1.7    4.1    .365   .476   .092

GP   MP      FGA    FTA    TRB    AST    PTS     eFG%   TS%   TOV%
23   36.0    15.9   9.6    9.0    8.1    19.1   .365   .476   .092

Now the drops here are alarming. -3.9 FGA, -.4 FTA, -12.6 PTS(!!!), -24.5% eFG%!, -17.9% TS% per 36 minutes. He's also a -.2 in turnovers, though I did not list those.

On the other hand, as expected, his focus in other areas shoots up. He's a +0.9 in rebounds per36, and a whopping +3.8 in assists. Sound familiar? -3.9 in FGA, but +3.8 in assists.

So, any thoughts? I think it's been mentioned that this won't be as much of an issue in the playoffs because he'll probably start the fourth quarters anyway (that's why he was so dominant against Boston and Chicago, but struggled against Philli). But there's reasonable evidence here to suggest that this is the cause for his passiveness.

[zogster]

Interesting, thanks for compiling that. Let's see what happens tonight.

Also, it seems to me that when we were starting LeBron and bringing Wade in with 6-8 minutes to go we were much more effective. LeBron usually was more aggressive, which opens everything up for everyone else.

Wade is more naturally aggressive, so it's easier for him to feed off of other players and still be in attack mode. When LeBron sees Wade having it going, his mindset is to keep Wade going, which too often leads to him giving Wade the ball and running to the corner to watch.

Wade is better making cuts to the basket off ball than LeBron, which I think is one main reason why we are better with LeBron being more aggressive. Wade will actually cut to the basket hard when LeBron has the ball to make plays, LeBron just stands and watches when Wade has the ball.

[diablerouge]

meh. most superstars sit at the beginning of the 4th unless the coach has decided to play them the whole 2nd half. lebron never started the 4th in cleveland, kobe never starts the 4th either.

[DefenseWins]

Interesting.

I think when he starts the 4th, it's just him. Bosh and Wade don't start the 4th if I remember correctly. So LeBron does whatever he wants, and that's also getting in rhythm.


It is a bit ridiculous that if he comes in with 6-7 minutes in, and then with 1 minute left we expect him to make a miracle 3 when he barely got any touches before.

At times Wade also has it going too and LeBron never sees the ball at that time, which is understandable if he's feeling it.

But yeah I think it will change in the playoffs, in terms of him starting the 4th. Especially if the game is close and Heat have absolutely nothing going.

[SideshowBob]

meh. most superstars sit at the beginning of the 4th unless the coach has decided to play them the whole 2nd half. lebron never started the 4th in cleveland, kobe never starts the 4th either.

Lebron was a different player in Cleveland. Much less reliant on rhythm. Just put him in and he'd start attacking the defense.

[FlashTheKilla]

Honestly, I think it's more of a rhythm thing.

When he has been sitting and goes in at the 7 or 8 minute mark, by the time he's in rhythm he only has like 3 or 4 minutes to operate. On the other hand, if he starts the 4th, he's got about 7 or 8 minutes in full rhythm and he is ready for the most important moments in crunch time.

I have long been an advocate of LeBron playing entire 4th quarters. He should get his rest at the end of the third.

[CablexDeadpool]

Lebron just plays more aggressive with less talent or when the team is really struggling


If Wade is going off, Lebron is just gonna watch.

[SideshowBob]

Honestly, I think it's more of a rhythm thing.

When he has been sitting and goes in at the 7 or 8 minute mark, by the time he's in rhythm he only has like 3 or 4 minutes to operate. On the other hand, if he starts the 4th, he's got about 7 or 8 minutes in full rhythm and he is ready for the most important moments in crunch time.

I have long been an advocate of LeBron playing entire 4th quarters. He should get his rest at the end of the third.

That's exactly what I think, not to mention the fact that he's already often in rhythm from the 3rd quarter. As I've said earlier, its why he just blew up in the Chicago and Boston series, because Spo was essentially playing him the entire second halves.

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Philadelphia

MP      FGA    FTA    TRB    AST    PTS     eFG%   TS%    TOV%
9.7     4.6    2.2    1.6    0.8    5.6    .413   .503   .059

Boston

MP      FGA    FTA    TRB    AST    PTS     eFG%   TS%    TOV%
12.5    7.0    2.6    2.0    1.0    9.4    .529   .577   .062

Chicago

MP      FGA    FTA    TRB    AST    PTS     eFG%   TS%    TOV%
12.6    6.0    3.0    1.8    1.2    9.4    .567   .642   .086

Notice. Struggles against Philadelphia, but rips us and Chicago

[nyk_buc]

IF Wade/Bosh is on, LBJ is not going to force the issue and will focus on defense/rebounding/facilitating. He has the talent to do that.

He'll only force the issue if Wade/Bosh is off (ala Sixers game) or he's really on.

I think that's the thing you just have to deal with when you have multiple stars.

Lebron does so much defensively that he won't have the energy all the time in the 4th; Bosh and Wade have a lighter load on that end so it's natural they start the 4th and do more.

I think Bron is like a safety net to Spo.

[Vertical Limit]

Stats aside, his passiveness has a lot to do with Spoelstra and Lebron together.

Lebron positions himself at either the top of the key or wandering around the perimeter. **** that, post him up and feed him inside, force him to make an aggressive attack to the basket.

All this jump shooting crap isn't working. Just post up, and good things will happen. That's what Wade has been doing his entire career in the 4th.

[SideshowBob]

Stats aside, his passiveness has a lot to do with Spoelstra and Lebron together.

Lebron positions himself at either the top of the key or wandering around the perimeter. **** that, post him up and feed him inside, force him to make an aggressive attack to the basket.

All this jump shooting crap isn't working. Just post up, and good things will happen. That's what Wade has been doing his entire career in the 4th.

That's also true. Lebron tends to look at his most ineffective offensively when he's working from the top of the perimeter. Not just in the fourth quarter, but basically all game long. The fact that he plays on the wing and in the post for the first 3, then starts playing from the perimeter in the 4th doesn't really help things

[DWadeno3]

meh. most superstars sit at the beginning of the 4th unless the coach has decided to play them the whole 2nd half. lebron never started the 4th in cleveland, kobe never starts the 4th either.

Lebron was a different player in Cleveland. Much less reliant on rhythm. Just put him in and he'd start attacking the defense.

What? He was more reliant on rhythm in Cleveland because his game wasn't as polished as it is now. The difference is, in Cleveland the team was built for him, so he was pretty much put in the best position to shine. He had a ton of shooters and bigs who could set good screens for him, which helped him a lot. Nonetheless it should be much easier for him to score now. The difference, as Vertical Limit pointed out, is that we don't use him properly and he himself doesn't put himself in a good position. Last night Wade scored in such a variety of ways in the 4th. He moved extremely well off the ball, he attacked off the dribble, he had a breakaway layup and he had a pull-up jump shot, which made it very hard for Orlando to keep him from scoring.
Thus, all LeBron really has to do is find a variety of ways to score, such as posting himself up or even cutting to the basket at times. Overall, this issue is vastly overstated though. You have to understand that with two other superstars next to you, it's much easier to pass the ball knowing you have somebody you can count on. That's the reason he came here in the first place anyways.

[SideshowBob]

Lebron was a different player in Cleveland. Much less reliant on rhythm. Just put him in and he'd start attacking the defense.

What? He was more reliant on rhythm in Cleveland because his game wasn't as polished as it is now.

I see him as more of a jumpshooter now than in Cleveland. Wouldn't a jumpshooter be more reliant on rhythm than a rim attacker? I mean Wade doesn't seem to have this issue at all. Doesn't matter who's in the game, as soon as you put him in, he can be firing on all cylinders. Lebron has to establish himself early to have confidence in his skill-based game late. Because he doesn't have the high percentage drives to fall back on, he tends to just play passive if he's inserted with only a few minutes to go, because why shoot jumpshots when you've got Wade there to create higher percentage buckets.

The difference, as Vertical Limit pointed out, is that we don't use him properly and he himself doesn't put himself in a good position. Last night Wade scored in such a variety of ways in the 4th. He moved extremely well off the ball, he attacked off the dribble, he had a breakaway layup and he had a pull-up jump shot, which made it very hard for Orlando to keep him from scoring.
Thus, all LeBron really has to do is find a variety of ways to score, such as posting himself up or even cutting to the basket at times. Overall, this issue is vastly overstated though. You have to understand that with two other superstars next to you, it's much easier to pass the ball knowing you have somebody you can count on. That's the reason he came here in the first place anyways.

Nothing more for me to say, as I agree with the rest of your post

[Bulls4LifeX]

As you guys can see, Im a Bulls fan. I have never respected Lebron until this year. The way the guy dominates game by passing, defense, scoring is incredible. I do see that the only flaw that he has is the 4th quater. Last year in the finals, he didn't score more than 5 points in the 4th quater. This year he has the lowest scroing in the 4th quaters from Durant, Rose, Kobe, Wade, etc. I think to fix this, Spolstra has to make more plays for Lebron, in the 4th quater instead of one on 5 plays. I don't buy the Lebron gets into a funk when he doesnt start 4th quaters because Last year it was the same result. Not saying he is a bad player, not at all. He has been as dominant as Shaq and Jordan ever was, but if he keeps dissaperaing in the 4th quater, this could hurt his MVP chances.

[Bulls4LifeX]

I have here all the points he has scored in the fourth quater. The first number is the points he scored in the game and the second is how much he scored in the 4th quater. The games are in order.
37/2
26/2
35/6
34/4
16/0
28/14
33/6
28/4
26/0/ overtime 2
23/2/ overtime 0
35/7
33/0
31/8
28/10
28/2
18/2
32/2
31/4
35/5
22/0
40/4
19/2
30/2
24/2
25/6
18/0
23/0
35/4
23/9
28/0
25/6
18/0
20/4
38/5
35/17
25/2
21/0
31/6
27/6 overtime 3
19/2 overtime 0
35/2/
29/2
14/0

If Lebron could fix his in the 4th quater woes, HE WILL BE THE GREATEST EVER

[SideshowBob]

I have here all the points he has scored in the fourth quater. The first number is the points he scored in the game and the second is how much he scored in the 4th quater. The games are in order.
37/2
26/2
35/6
34/4
16/0
28/14
33/6
28/4
26/0/ overtime 2
23/2/ overtime 0
35/7
33/0
31/8
28/10
28/2
18/2
32/2
31/4
35/5
22/0
40/4
19/2
30/2
24/2
25/6
18/0
23/0
35/4
23/9
28/0
25/6
18/0
20/4
38/5
35/17
25/2
21/0
31/6
27/6 overtime 3
19/2 overtime 0
35/2/
29/2
14/0

If Lebron could fix his in the 4th quater woes, HE WILL BE THE GREATEST EVER

Your numbers are off.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvAdaCB40YpgdDJzdTdJaWM0MVpRX3ZMOTZKeldBa3c

[Bulls4LifeX]

I have here all the points he has scored in the fourth quater. The first number is the points he scored in the game and the second is how much he scored in the 4th quater. The games are in order.
37/2
26/2
35/6
34/4
16/0
28/14
33/6
28/4
26/0/ overtime 2
23/2/ overtime 0
35/7
33/0
31/8
28/10
28/2
18/2
32/2
31/4
35/5
22/0
40/4
19/2
30/2
24/2
25/6
18/0
23/0
35/4
23/9
28/0
25/6
18/0
20/4
38/5
35/17
25/2
21/0
31/6
27/6 overtime 3
19/2 overtime 0
35/2/
29/2
14/0

If Lebron could fix his in the 4th quater woes, HE WILL BE THE GREATEST EVER

Your numbers are off.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvAdaCB40YpgdDJzdTdJaWM0MVpRX3ZMOTZKeldBa3c

I went to Espn, game by game and I clicked on Shot Chart, picked James and then clicked 4th quaters. Those are the numbers I got, if one is wrong I apologize, but you do see my point. If he could fix this minor problem, I would even put him in front of Jordan.

[DWadeno3]

Lebron was a different player in Cleveland. Much less reliant on rhythm. Just put him in and he'd start attacking the defense.

What? He was more reliant on rhythm in Cleveland because his game wasn't as polished as it is now.

I see him as more of a jumpshooter now than in Cleveland. Wouldn't a jumpshooter be more reliant on rhythm than a rim attacker? I mean Wade doesn't seem to have this issue at all. Doesn't matter who's in the game, as soon as you put him in, he can be firing on all cylinders. Lebron has to establish himself early to have confidence in his skill-based game late. Because he doesn't have the high percentage drives to fall back on, he tends to just play passive if he's inserted with only a few minutes to go, because why shoot jumpshots when you've got Wade there to create higher percentage buckets.

LeBron is a much better jump shooter now than he was in Cleveland, which is why I claimed he needed more rhythm in Cleveland to actually catch fire than he does with us. In the Philly game, he didn't score that much in the 4th and only had one jump shot, which was a huge won for us though. He wasn't in a pretty good rhythm prior to it, but had the ability to create a well-balanced jump shot and easily nail it.
Regarding his passiveness at times, I think it's just his instinct of trying to make the right play. He referred to himself as being more of a Magic than an MJ, which confirms my assumption and in my opinion, that's a pretty good role for him. He has the ability to contribute a little bit of everything in crunchtime, whereas Wade is the guy you just give the ball and get out of his way. The public perception may be that LeBron is a 'coward' or not clutch, but the reality is that his contributions are equally as valuable as Wade's. Let's take last night's fourth quarter for example. Wade obviously made it a point to attack and score, which he successfully did. But it's not as if LeBron was just watching. He had some key steals, some big rebounds and a couple of great assists, which ultimately helped us to win just as much as Wade's 14 points did.

[SideshowBob]

Your numbers are off.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvAdaCB40YpgdDJzdTdJaWM0MVpRX3ZMOTZKeldBa3c

I went to Espn, game by game and I clicked on Shot Chart, picked James and then clicked 4th quaters. Those are the numbers I got, if one is wrong I apologize, but you do see my point. If he could fix this minor problem, I would even put him in front of Jordan.

That's good! But then you miss the FTs

And as for the 4th quarter issues. Lebron's in his 9th season. These 4th quarter issues have only existed in 2 of those 9 seasons. The other years he was basically the best 4th quarter player in the league. He led the league in 4th quarter scoring for 3 straight years (08, 09, 10), and taking averages, was the leading fourth quarter scorer from 06-10.

Also, if we're talking specifcally the playoffs, Lebron has either the 2nd or 3rd highest 4th quarter scoring average of all time. So in reality, the issues are overblown

[SideshowBob]

I see him as more of a jumpshooter now than in Cleveland. Wouldn't a jumpshooter be more reliant on rhythm than a rim attacker? I mean Wade doesn't seem to have this issue at all. Doesn't matter who's in the game, as soon as you put him in, he can be firing on all cylinders. Lebron has to establish himself early to have confidence in his skill-based game late. Because he doesn't have the high percentage drives to fall back on, he tends to just play passive if he's inserted with only a few minutes to go, because why shoot jumpshots when you've got Wade there to create higher percentage buckets.

LeBron is a much better jump shooter now than he was in Cleveland, which is why I claimed he needed more rhythm in Cleveland to actually catch fire than he does with us. In the Philly game, he didn't score that much in the 4th and only had one jump shot, which was a huge won for us though. He wasn't in a pretty good rhythm prior to it, but had the ability to create a well-balanced jump shot and easily nail it.

But if this is true, why were his 4th quarter numbers so much better in Cleveland? If he was more of a rhythm player then, why was he blowing the rest of the league out of the water late in games?

Regarding his passiveness at times, I think it's just his instinct of trying to make the right play. He referred to himself as being more of a Magic than an MJ, which confirms my assumption and in my opinion, that's a pretty good role for him. He has the ability to contribute a little bit of everything in crunchtime, whereas Wade is the guy you just give the ball and get out of his way. The public perception may be that LeBron is a 'coward' or not clutch, but the reality is that his contributions are equally as valuable as Wade's. Let's take last night's fourth quarter for example. Wade obviously made it a point to attack and score, which he successfully did. But it's not as if LeBron was just watching. He had some key steals, some big rebounds and a couple of great assists, which ultimately helped us to win just as much as Wade's 14 points did.

What I'm trying to say is that in Cleveland, Lebron was what you Wade as today. Give the guy the ball at the top and get out of his way. That's the kind of player he was, and that's the reason he was so dominant in 4th quarters. He didn't need to get into a rhythm, because he wasn't relying on jumpshots to begin with. Put him in and he'd just start attacking.

I understand that he's a better jumpshooter today, but that's moving away from the the point. Lebron didn't wait for his jumper to catch fire in Cleveland, because he wasn't even looking to use it all that frequently, he was more keen to attack.

Yes its true that he's a more complete player today, but he's also MORE reliant on jumpshots now than he was then, and that's why he needs to establish rhythm in order to take control.