The 2012 NBA Draft: 6th & 11th picks, and some random 2nds.

Norm2953 · Post #61 » by **Norm2953** » Sun Mar 18, 2012 6:35 am

I've heard the conspiracy theories that NJ/Brooklyn about to enter a new
arena is not going to finish out of the top 3 of the draft and we will have to
wait until next season to collect on the Wallace deal.

It might not even be so bad if we have to wait until 2014 to collect for the
HS junior class might be the most talented group of players in recent memory.
NJ if they lose Williams might be losing for years to come, even if they get to
keep their pick this year.

UGotThrilled · Post #62 » by **UGotThrilled** » Sun Mar 18, 2012 6:40 am

The scary thought is if NJ wins the lottery and gets Davis, and then all of a sudden can offer Orlando Davis, Lopez, and Wallace for Howard. Once they have Deron and Dwight, the value of the pick drops substantially.

If I had to choose where I wanted the Nets record to be, I would probably give them the 5th worst pick. However, keep in mind that even if they have the third worst record, we still have a 50-50 chance (roughly) of getting the pick, which would likely be the fourth or maybe the fifth pick. Keep in mind, that chart is a little skewed. I am guessing that 5 and 6 tied that year, so really there are two 5.5 teams. That would explain the big jump between 4 and 5.

Wizenheimer · Post #63 » by **Wizenheimer** » Sun Mar 18, 2012 3:14 pm

UGotThrilled wrote:The scary thought is if NJ wins the lottery and gets Davis, and then all of a sudden can offer Orlando Davis, Lopez, and Wallace for Howard. Once they have Deron and Dwight, the value of the pick drops substantially.

If I had to choose where I wanted the Nets record to be, I would probably give them the 5th worst pick. However, keep in mind that even if they have the third worst record, we still have a 50-50 chance (roughly) of getting the pick, which would likely be the fourth or maybe the fifth pick. Keep in mind, that chart is a little skewed. I am guessing that 5 and 6 tied that year, so really there are two 5.5 teams. That would explain the big jump between 4 and 5.

you are correct, they did tie. good catch

and there are risks with that pick no doubt. However, considering that Portland landed that pick by trading a player that would have likely cut their cap-space way down, and he wasn't playing consistently well, it could be viewed as a moderately low-risk/high-reward move

The Blazers are going to have to take some risks in order to have opportunities, however remote, for landing a top-tier player.

DusterBuster · Post #64 » by **DusterBuster** » Sun Mar 18, 2012 5:47 pm

UGotThrilled wrote:The scary thought is if NJ wins the lottery and gets Davis, and then all of a sudden can offer Orlando Davis, Lopez, and Wallace for Howard. Once they have Deron and Dwight, the value of the pick drops substantially.

If I had to choose where I wanted the Nets record to be, I would probably give them the 5th worst pick. However, keep in mind that even if they have the third worst record, we still have a 50-50 chance (roughly) of getting the pick, which would likely be the fourth or maybe the fifth pick. Keep in mind, that chart is a little skewed. I am guessing that 5 and 6 tied that year, so really there are two 5.5 teams. That would explain the big jump between 4 and 5.

As NY is showing, gutting your team to smash 2 superstars together with a whole lot of nothing around them isn't always a recipe for success. Plus if this year as any indication, the Magic won't pull the trigger on any Howard deal until the very last second, so the Nets could accumulate a lot of losses before that happens. On top of all that, Deron still has to resign with them, which is FAR from a given at this point. I'd be more scared if the Blazers lost the pick and Howard walked to NJ as a FA. But that can't happen now obviously.

As Wizen said, even in the worst case scenario, the Wallace deal was still a HUGE success. To dump a contract and get a pick with that kind of potential is almost unheard of in the NBA. Particularly in a what's supposed to be one of the deepest drafts in recent memory. So yeah, definitely a low-risk/high-reward type of move.

Wizenheimer · Post #65 » by **Wizenheimer** » Sun Mar 18, 2012 7:04 pm

a poster at Blazers Edge made a graphical representation of the lottery odds for the Blazers with the NJ pick. It's a good reference:

http://www.blazersedge.com/2012/3/16/2879007/graphical-probabilities-of-nets-lottery-pick

I'm also wondering it it would be fun to sticky this thread

Post #66 » by **The Sebastian Express** » Mon Mar 19, 2012 12:14 am

Sacramento won tonight, keeping them 'ahead' of New Jersey.

Wizenheimer · Post #67 » by **Wizenheimer** » Mon Mar 19, 2012 1:03 am

The Sebastian Express wrote:Sacramento won tonight, keeping them 'ahead' of New Jersey.

it's a dogfight between the 5 teams setting between 4 and 8 in the lottery.

the worst 3 teams in the league, Charlotte, NOH, and Washington probably have their position sewed up

Post #68 » by **The Sebastian Express** » Mon Mar 19, 2012 4:13 am

We lose, Utah inexplicably wins in LA against the Lakers.

Walton'sBeard! · Post #69 » by **Walton'sBeard!** » Mon Mar 19, 2012 5:24 am

Wizenheimer wrote:a poster at Blazers Edge made a graphical representation of the lottery odds for the Blazers with the NJ pick. It's a good reference:

http://www.blazersedge.com/2012/3/16/2879007/graphical-probabilities-of-nets-lottery-pick

I'm also wondering it it would be fun to sticky this thread

That's fascinating. According to that chart if the Nets finish with the 5th worst record the most likely spot for the pick would be 6th. Weird how that stuff can work.

PDXKnight · Post #70 » by **PDXKnight** » Mon Mar 19, 2012 6:56 am

Hopefully the Nets don't blow too many games. It would seem that if they land in the 5-9 range we'll be pretty safe.

DusterBuster · Post #71 » by **DusterBuster** » Mon Mar 19, 2012 7:23 am

Oden2 wrote:Hopefully the Nets don't blow too many games. It would seem that if they land in the 5-9 range we'll be pretty safe.

Actually, that's probably the WORST spot they could land in if recent history holds true.

Since 2005, 6 out of 7 NBA draft lottery winners have come from the 5-9 spots.....

Lottery Winners

05 - Bucks - 6th worst record
06 - Raptors - 5th worst record
07 - Blazers - 6th worst record
08 - Bulls - 9th worst record
09 - Clippers - 2nd worst record
10 - Wizards - 5th worst record
11 - Cavs - 8th worst record (the Clips pick they traded for won that lottery)

And that's just for the winners. That's not taking into account the teams who jump up to get into the #2 or #3 spots. There's plenty of reason for Blazer fans to have tight b-holes on lottery night.

PDXKnight · Post #72 » by **PDXKnight** » Mon Mar 19, 2012 8:41 am

DusterBuster wrote:
Oden2 wrote:Hopefully the Nets don't blow too many games. It would seem that if they land in the 5-9 range we'll be pretty safe.

Actually, that's probably the WORST spot they could land in if recent history holds true.

Since 2005, 6 out of 7 NBA draft lottery winners have come from the 5-9 spots.....

Lottery Winners

05 - Bucks - 6th worst record
06 - Raptors - 5th worst record
07 - Blazers - 6th worst record
08 - Bulls - 9th worst record
09 - Clippers - 2nd worst record
10 - Wizards - 5th worst record
11 - Cavs - 8th worst record (the Clips pick they traded for won that lottery)

And that's just for the winners. That's not taking into account the teams who jump up to get into the #2 or #3 spots. There's plenty of reason for Blazer fans to have tight b-holes on lottery night.

Still going by the law of averages, the top teams have the best shot. Also most of those teams were in the 5-6 range. I'm assuming that NJ won't get any worse than they are with an improvement in talent in Gerald Wallace. 5-9 was probably a bit of a stretch. Also its worth noting that any team could technically win the lotto, but if they're any lower than 9 then the pick gets that much worse, and if they're much higher then they'd have a 25 percent shot of winning on the higher end of the spectrum. All that to say, in that range the odds might be higher, but the odds of winning the lottery with whichever pick they possess is much lower than the odds of a team winning the lottery with a specific pick in that range.

DusterBuster · Post #73 » by **DusterBuster** » Mon Mar 19, 2012 9:02 am

But as I pointed out in my final paragraph, we aren't just dealing with the risk of the Nets winning the lottery, but moving up at all. So while their percentage of getting the #1 pick might be somewhat low, you still have to add in the percentages of them also moving up to the #2 and #3 picks as well.

For example, lets say the season ended today. They currently have the 4th worst record in the league. With the 4th worst record, that team has a 11.9% chance to get the #1 pick. They also have a 12.6% chance to get the #2 pick and a 13.3% chance at the #3 pick. That means they have a 37.8% chance of getting to keep their pick. Basically, the Blazers would have roughly a 60/40 shot at getting to keep the pick. That's not really so great, particularly given the Blazers luck.

If the Nets could move back a little bit, to that 5-7 spot, the Blazers odds go up, but like I mentioned, those spots are where almost all of the lottery draft winners have come from for the better part of a decade.

Long story short, it's called the "lottery" for a reason.

PDXKnight · Post #74 » by **PDXKnight** » Mon Mar 19, 2012 11:08 am

^Yes but our odds would still increase if they fell a bit so that's a moot point. We're talking about the difference between 12 and like 6 percent odds of winning it all.

Post #75 » by **mojomarc** » Mon Mar 19, 2012 12:24 pm

It makes sense that the 5-9 spots would win the lottery most years. If I remember correctly, the cumulative odds of one of the teams between 5-9 winning the top spot is now about 24%, and it was higher in the past before they corrected the odds to better protect the 1-3 worst records. So there is a 1:4 chance, give or take, of one of those five teams getting it, which is pretty darned good. But those aren't the odds of any one of those spots getting it. So basically, just because 6 out of 7 winners came from those spots doesn't mean that if NJ finishes in one of those spots we should be terribly worried.

Post #76 » by **Moonbeam** » Mon Mar 19, 2012 12:26 pm

It would be nice to get a high pick, but I won't be too gutted if New Jersey retains their pick next year. The protection gets slighter as the years go on, and if Dwight Howard doesn't head to the Nets, they may be bad for awhile.

Post #77 » by **Moonbeam** » Mon Mar 19, 2012 12:30 pm

A good link for tracking progress is basketball-reference's Playoff Probabilities report, which weighs in on where each team is projected to finish based on SRS and remaining schedule. As it stands, New Jersey is currently looking most likely to finish in the 4th slot and Portland in the 13th slot. Of course, this isn't perfect yet as trades have not had a chance to have a big impact on SRS and tanking strategies may be evidence toward the end.

Post #78 » by **DaVoiceMaster** » Mon Mar 19, 2012 1:34 pm

Moonbeam wrote:It would be nice to get a high pick, but I won't be too gutted if New Jersey retains their pick next year. The protection gets slighter as the years go on, and if Dwight Howard doesn't head to the Nets, they may be bad for awhile.

Particularly if Derron Williams leaves, as well.

Post #79 » by **The Sebastian Express** » Tue Mar 20, 2012 1:56 am

New Jersey loses to Cleveland - at home.

DusterBuster · Post #80 » by **DusterBuster** » Tue Mar 20, 2012 2:04 am

Yikes, things are getting nasty for the Nets. Gerald Wallace had himself a good game tonight, unsurprisingly, it was a home game.

Maybe it's just the pessimistic side of me coming out, but I'm really not liking our chances of getting that pick this year. As has been brought out though, that might not be a terrible thing. If they keep losing like this, Deron will likely bolt now that there's little-no chance on Howard coming over, that means the chances of them being improved much next year will be pretty slim.

Interestingly enough, vincecarter4pres said on the Nets board that think things Deron will sign with either the Mavs or the Blazers. Does this mean a hill of beans for reality? No, but I found it interesting when you consider that whenever someone mentioned Deron to Portland here, they basically get laughed off the radio or message board. For what it's worth, I'm still laughing off the idea of Deron coming to Portland, but I did find it interesting to hear an outsider bringing up Portland as a landing spot for Deron completely unprovoked.