JonathanJoseph wrote:Wow has this thread gone off the rails...
As I said in my earlier post, this thread will prove to be an argument against the stat heads. Nivek, my business is data and I believe wholeheartedly in the value of data but it will never be useful outside of the context of human interpretation.
You show various data sources that claim that players rapidly decline by 24 or 27, yet all recent NBA history shows NBA titles being won and best NBA players all being significantly older than that age range. Billups, Garnett, Pierce, Allen, Kobe, Duncan, Ginobili, Parker, Gasol (both), Derek Fisher, Tyson Chandler, Dirk, etc. Not a single one of those players had noticable decline in EFFECTIVENESS at 27, even if their statistics may have suggested a decline. They may not have rising PERs but they have wins and losses and playoff series and championships. It's a truism that young teams don't win in the NBA. That age data is simply put, misleading. It's a false positive.
[snip]
Kev may have already addressed this but in his defense, I don't think that's
what he says the stats say or what the stats actually DO say. He merely
charted the performance slope of basketball players. It says that on average
they begin to decline at a given age and he points out that Nene is past that age.
Depending on your personal definition, the decline isn't necessarily rapid at Nene's current age.
These are perfectly valid concerns especially given his remaining $$$ owed.
That said, I still like the trade. Nene will be the best C we've had since 77 (Ghitza).
Unless he doesn't.
