Nick Young traded to Clippers/McGee to Denver/Nene to DC

[Nivek]

Cap effects from the trade.

Assuming Washington amnesties Lewis, and that the Wiz land the #3 pick in the draft, the Wizards will have approximately $17.6 million in cap space this offseason. They would have had about $30.1 million.

Another option that would increase their cap space in the following offseason would be to buy out Lewis (about $13.6 million, most likely) and amnesty Blatche. That would leave Washington with approximately $11.2 this offseason, but something in the neighborhood of $15-18 million in 2013.

It would be great if they could find an expiring for Blatche. Probably not going to happen. Big question is whether Ted is willing to spend $36.9 million to buy out Lewis and amnesty Blatche.

[fishercob]

Niv, I have been operating under the assumption that Blatche will be amnestied and Lewis bought out. Assuming someone put's in a claim on Dray -- say $2.5M/yr -- ownership's check will be closer to "just" $30M.

The money is sunk cost. They're going to pay both these guys next year either way and get little to no production; might as well get the benefit of the cap flexibility.

I think the ship has sailed on Blatche for an expiring contract. Maybe could have pulled it off last year (or back when you wrote for the Post that they should have done just that!) but I can't see anyone taking him without the Wiz giving up an asset. Amnesty makes most sense.

[tontoz]

Niv, I have been operating under the assumption that Blatche will be amnestied and Lewis bought out. Assuming someone put's in a claim on Dray -- say $2.5M/yr -- ownership's check will be closer to "just" $30M.

The money is sunk cost. They're going to pay both these guys next year either way and get little to no production; might as well get the benefit of the cap flexibility.

I think the ship has sailed on Blatche for an expiring contract. Maybe could have pulled it off last year (or back when you wrote for the Post that they should have done just that!) but I can't see anyone taking him without the Wiz giving up an asset. Amnesty makes most sense.

I hope that happens as well. As Nivek has explained previously there is no cap benefit to buying out Lewis unless he is willing to give up some of his guaranteed money which is unlikely. He will count the same against the cap whether he is bought out or not.

It is also very unlikely for anyone to pick up Blatche off the amnesty waivers since they would have to sign him for the length of his deal. They couldn't sign him for just one year unless he clears waivers.

[fishercob]

On Lewis, I should have said "waived." The only way he agrees to a buyout is if his agent gets any interest in his services elsewhere and he'd prefer to be there. I think that's pretty unlikely at this point. He's a good solider, so I'm not sure they'd have to waive him. If he'd be willing to play the role Mase and Mo have, I suppose we could keep him.

I think Blatche would get claimed -- even if it's a 3 yr deal. Basic GM hubris. Someone is going to think they can reach the guy, get him into shape, and get him to play to his potential. The downside risk is so small compared to the upside. If he doesn't get any better, 3 yrs @ $2.5M is rounding error on the cap. There's so much free agent money out there this year and some teams are going to strike out and have money burning a hole in their pockets. We shall see.

[Ruzious]

On Lewis, I should have said "waived." The only way he agrees to a buyout is if his agent gets any interest in his services elsewhere and he'd prefer to be there. I think that's pretty unlikely at this point. He's a good solider, so I'm not sure they'd have to waive him. If he'd be willing to play the role Mase and Mo have, I suppose we could keep him.

I think Blatche would get claimed -- even if it's a 3 yr deal. Basic GM hubris. Someone is going to think they can reach the guy, get him into shape, and get him to play to his potential. The downside risk is so small compared to the upside. If he doesn't get any better, 3 yrs @ $2.5M is rounding error on the cap. There's so much free agent money out there this year and some teams are going to strike out and have money burning a hole in their pockets. We shall see.

Lewis could end up wherever Dwight Howard plays - especially if it's in Orlando. Howard had tremendous respect for Lewis and gave him a ton of credit for Orlando's success - as do a large chunk of Orlando fans - in spite of the contract he signed there.

[Rafael122]

On Lewis, I should have said "waived." The only way he agrees to a buyout is if his agent gets any interest in his services elsewhere and he'd prefer to be there. I think that's pretty unlikely at this point. He's a good solider, so I'm not sure they'd have to waive him. If he'd be willing to play the role Mase and Mo have, I suppose we could keep him.

I think Blatche would get claimed -- even if it's a 3 yr deal. Basic GM hubris. Someone is going to think they can reach the guy, get him into shape, and get him to play to his potential. The downside risk is so small compared to the upside. If he doesn't get any better, 3 yrs @ $2.5M is rounding error on the cap. There's so much free agent money out there this year and some teams are going to strike out and have money burning a hole in their pockets. We shall see.

Lewis would be fine playing the role of Mason or Mo, the thing is, from a fan's perspective, he's taking up $13 million. If you want someone to play the Mase or Mo role, sign Roger Mason or Maurice Evans again.

I could see the Nets taking a flier on Blatche.

[Nivek]

Lewis is going to take up $13.6 million whether he stays or goes -- unless the Wiz amnesty him instead of Blatche. I think they should amnesty Blatche and hang on to Lewis for the final year of his deal. Might be able to move his expiring to get something. If not, he's gone after 2013. Or, see if you can sell him on a buyout. I don't see any reason for him to take anything less than the guaranteed money on his deal. Maybe he'd go for $13.6 million minus the $1.35 million minimum salary for a 10+ veteran. Then he could go and sign where he wants for the minimum and still get his guaranteed money.

[popper]

I've heard some say that we could trade Lewis' expiring next year in return for another team's first round draft pick and equivalent in players/salaries. We would end up with a couple of bums, a passable stater or rotation player and a first round pick.

Is this a probability or sheer fantasy?

[Nivek]

I've heard some say that we could trade Lewis' expiring next year in return for another team's first round draft pick and equivalent in players/salaries. We would end up with a couple of bums, a passable stater or rotation player and a first round pick.

Is this a probability or sheer fantasy?

I'd say it's a POSSIBILITY -- somewhere between probable and fantasy. The difficulty would be that Washington might have to take back salaries for future seasons, which would reduce cap space.

[MDStar]

Cap effects from the trade.

Assuming Washington amnesties Lewis, and that the Wiz land the #3 pick in the draft, the Wizards will have approximately $17.6 million in cap space this offseason. They would have had about $30.1 million.

Another option that would increase their cap space in the following offseason would be to buy out Lewis (about $13.6 million, most likely) and amnesty Blatche. That would leave Washington with approximately $11.2 this offseason, but something in the neighborhood of $15-18 million in 2013.

It would be great if they could find an expiring for Blatche. Probably not going to happen. Big question is whether Ted is willing to spend $36.9 million to buy out Lewis and amnesty Blatche.

Looking at this (Thanks for the #'s Kev), I wonder which option is more accepted or preferred among us Wiz fans? Or maybe more importantly, which option is preferred among potential free-agents?

Option A:

Wall, #3 pick in the draft, A few young potentials (Booker, Seraphin, Vesley) and 30 million in cap space.

Option B:

Wall, Nene, #3 pick in the draft, A few young potentials (Booker, Seraphin, Vesley) and 17.5 million in cap space.

Thoughts?

[Illuminaire]

Thoughts: In option A we'd have 30 million in cap space and below average to backup quality starters at the four and the five... the cap space would either tempt us to grossly overpay an average starter (Hibbert, etc) in an attempt to steal a RFA, or it would sit there doing nothing.

In option B we have two positions locked down, and our draft pick should coincide with several solid choices to fill one of the other three. Then we have 17.5 million in cap space to pursue two remaining holes.... as long as Nene actually stays healthy enough to produce and play when we need him, I'll take option B every time.

[Nivek]

For next year, option B looks better. Maybe for the year after too. After that...there's a good chance Nene won't be very good, but he'll still be owed two years and $26 million. Which is why I'd have chosen option A.

But, it's done, so now, hopefully they'll make the best of it. I have zero faith that Ernie will do that, but it's within the realm of possibility, I guess.

[DCZards]

Thoughts: In option A we'd have 30 million in cap space and below average to backup quality starters at the four and the five... the cap space would either tempt us to grossly overpay an average starter (Hibbert, etc) in an attempt to steal a RFA, or it would sit there doing nothing.

In option B we have two positions locked down, and our draft pick should coincide with several solid choices to fill one of the other three. Then we have 17.5 million in cap space to pursue two remaining holes.... as long as Nene actually stays healthy enough to produce and play when we need him, I'll take option B every time.

What he said.

Problem with option A is that we don't know what, if any, quality FA would sign with the Zards. So we could possibly have the money and cap space, but still lack talent. A bird in the hand...

[nate33]

Lewis is going to take up $13.6 million whether he stays or goes -- unless the Wiz amnesty him instead of Blatche. I think they should amnesty Blatche and hang on to Lewis for the final year of his deal. Might be able to move his expiring to get something. If not, he's gone after 2013. Or, see if you can sell him on a buyout. I don't see any reason for him to take anything less than the guaranteed money on his deal. Maybe he'd go for $13.6 million minus the $1.35 million minimum salary for a 10+ veteran. Then he could go and sign where he wants for the minimum and still get his guaranteed money.

So we buy Lewis out for $12.5M (or keep him, it doesn't really matter). We amnesty Blatche. That leaves us with $12.3M in cap room this offseason (or $11M if we keep Lewis). Let's assume we sign a competent shooting wing during the offseason of 2012 (say, Brandon Rush at $5M a year). We play next year with the following lineup:

PG Wall/Mack
SG B.Rush/Crawford
SF 2012 1st/Singleton
PF Booker/Vesely/cheap vet
C Nene/Seraphin

That team should win 30-35 games and finish with the #7-10 pick in the draft.

During the summer of 2013, we'll have a payroll of $39.3M for Nene, Wall, Booker, Seraphin, Vesely, 2012 pick, Rush and Singleton (we cut Crawford). Add in the the cap hold of our 2013 pick ($2.0M) and our payroll could be as low as $41.0M, leaving us with $17.5M in cap room. Throw in 2 cheap vets and it's $16M in cap room, enough to pay a max salary to a player coming off his rookie deal.

Since my plan only calls for a modest free agent acquisition this summer, I fully endorse amnestying Blatche instead of Lewis.

[gesa2]

I hope you're seeing the future for us Nate. I worry that Leonsis won't be willing to take the hit to his pocketbook, and instead forces us to hear the spin that he has faith in Blatche turning it around.

[Nivek]

I don't think there's any doubt that amnestying Blatche is the best move. The question is whether Ted is willing to do it.

[thinker07]

I have not seen this discussed, but I think people are misinterpreting how Lewis' contract works. I believe (but am definitely not sure) that going into next year, Lewis' contract is for $23.79 million. Only $13.7 million of that is guaranteed. But if the Wiz keep him for the year, at a certain date the full amount will become guaranteed. So I believe that the Wizards ultimately have to pay the $13.7 mil in some fashion AND have to cut him before some vesting date otherwise they'd be on the hook for the full amount - as would any team trading for him or assuming his contract.

[JAR69]

For next year, option B looks better. Maybe for the year after too. After that...there's a good chance Nene won't be very good, but he'll still be owed two years and $26 million. Which is why I'd have chosen option A.

But, it's done, so now, hopefully they'll make the best of it. I have zero faith that Ernie will do that, but it's within the realm of possibility, I guess.

It is conceivable that the cap hit in the last year of Nene's won't be so bad, or that his trade value before his final season (2015/16) will be greater than anticipated, due to the CBA's new stretch provision. According to Larry Coon's summary of the new CBA, for contracts signed under the new CBA (like Nene's), teams can waive a player and, at their sole discretion, stretch out the payment of a player's salary and the cap hit for twice the number of years on a player's contract plus one. Thus, instead of taking all of Nene's $13 million in 2015/16, we could waive him before that season, and stretch his salary out at $4.33 million/year for three years. Not saying this is a likely scenario, but if we magically were contenders, Ted was willing to eat $13 million, and we wanted to pay for a final piece free agent, we might be able to make some room.

Similarly, it is possible a team could want to trade for Nene for just this reason, assuming the stretch provision applies to traded-for contracts (I haven't seen anything on whether it does or doesn't).

Just playing around with ideas, unlikely as they might be.

[Nivek]

I have not seen this discussed, but I think people are misinterpreting how Lewis' contract works. I believe (but am definitely not sure) that going into next year, Lewis' contract is for $23.79 million. Only $13.7 million of that is guaranteed. But if the Wiz keep him for the year, at a certain date the full amount will become guaranteed. So I believe that the Wizards ultimately have to pay the $13.7 mil in some fashion AND have to cut him before some vesting date otherwise they'd be on the hook for the full amount - as would any team trading for him or assuming his contract.

The non-guaranteed portion of Lewis's contract are for things like his team making the NBA Finals, for making All-NBA -- that sort of thing. At least that's what I've been told by someone who I'm certain knows the details of Lewis's contract.

[WizarDynasty]

i personally think an inshape blatche is a huge asset for the wizards. Unlike McGee and Young, Blatche has a high BBIQ and when he is fully in shape, has an explosive first step and guard like handles. He has never been able to jump but having tough guys like Seraphin, Nene, and Booker will bring the best of Blatche out. I think Blatche finally has the environment needed to reach his full potential. He is also a leader unlike Young and McGee.
Blatche is a 6th man player when healthy and in shape and he actually still has room to grow with outstanding feel for the game, ability to create, coachable, and a desire to be great.
Grunfeld didn't make a mistake when he signed Blatche to an extension and Blatche will be the X factor for us in the future.
If Blatche fails to get back and shape and return to his outstanding mobility for a powerforward with an explosive first step and the ability to accelerate when driving to the basket in a few months, then i say trade him.
No he has never been able to jump, but at his best, Blatche a floor bound arenas driving with the basketball...and the best one on one defender on the team.