Ed Wood wrote:The Consiglieri wrote:
The Nats are the only DC team with a great FO. Even the Redskins merely moved to competent. Shanny's track record is mediocre in the draft (below average at the top end, good in the mid rounds), Allen's is much worse (though he was hired for financial and organizational issues not for the draft). I cant believe EG hasn't been canned, and I was a borderline backer until the '09 trade (after that, only backed his drafts, then cooled on that too after this past year).
The Nats don't actually have an exceptional front office, though I would rate it as competent. The combination of solid drafting and a willingness to spend a great deal in the draft process (which prior to revisions to the structure of the draft vastly increased the likelihood that a team would draft well) coupled with a number of very high picks at fortunate times has led to a solid overall product. When you consider the team's trade history and free agent signings (which are a little less dependent on luck and circumstance) the team is less impressive, though not bad.
And I can only hope this was (if true) entirely a ceremonial gesture which had been at least tacitly choreographed to allow Grunfeld to leave the team "by choice" and that Ted's nascent fondness for analytics is evident in a revamped cabinet next year.
Maybe not the right place for this, but Rizzo is definitely an exceptional GM. He traded Ryan Langerhans for Michael Morse, who the stat guys hated. There's no way he expected this, but he took a flier on a guy who he liked and projected to get better. Matt Capps for Wilson Ramos is another great trade. He traded Hanarahan for Nyjer Morgan and Sean Burnett. Not even counting whatever it was that Nyjer gave us, Burnett was better the first year, Hanrahan better in the second. Burnett should bounce back this year. What trades by Rizzo am I forgetting? Most of the questionable ones were by Bowden.
FA is not as clear, obviously with the Werth signing, but I thought it was a good move at the time and still don't mind it. For one, no one saw his atrocious year coming, but secondly, ask any Orioles fan (like me) if they need/want to overpay for a top tier free agent. There is something to be said for a teams reputation among FAs and the rest of the league (look at the Wizards), especially with no salary cap to restrict spending. That was needed to change their image, and it was neccesary to overspend like they did. Adam Laroche was a fair signing for 2 years/15 million, he just got hurt. It happens. Matt Capps was signed to a one year deal then promptly traded for our catcher of the next 10 years, a future all-star. We will see how Edwin Jackson fairs, but at worst it is a one year failure. At best hes a great mercenary for a team hoping to make the playoffs.
No doubt they had great luck in getting Harper and Strasburg, but keep in mind that when many of their young studs (Espinosa, J. Zimmermann, Storen, Lombardozzi) were drafted, Rizzo wasn't GM but in charge of the draft, a claim he can still make. Most GMs do not head the draft.