2012 NBA Draft - Part II

[Dr Positivity]

I wrote an article on my top 30 prospects if you guys are interested since the discussion here seems pretty decent: http://asubstituteforwar.com/2012/03/26 ... arch-2012/ Second straight year where some rankings are far off enough to look like an insult to NBA teams/scouts, but that's OK, they don't deserve the benefit of the doubt

[Ruzious]

Haven't been following the discussion in this thread, so maybe I'm late...but...what's the concensus on Terrence Jones? I've liked watching him during the tournament. Seems more mature than a sophmore IMO. But is he a SF or PF? Saw him hit a couple 3's over the last few games, but is that actually part of his game?

His position is enigma. I actually think he's better than given credit for. He started out his frosh year with some tremendous statistical games, and all of a sudden people were talking about him as the #1 prospect in America - so it wasn't surprising that when he fell, he fell hard and took it badly - he was 18 and had the world by its oysters. So, while he's not a legit supastar in the making, he's still a pretty good player. He's a PF who can maybe play some SF - but he is a PF. And he's not really small - he's 6'9ish 250ish - roughly the same size as T-Rob. He showed better shot selection this season - realizing he shouldn't rely on jump shots. His ability to take it to the rim is underrated. The keys for him will be consistency and discipline. In the right situation, he can be a very good player. In the wrong situation, he'll be a crybaby.

[pancakes3]

Haven't been following the discussion in this thread, so maybe I'm late...but...what's the concensus on Terrence Jones? I've liked watching him during the tournament. Seems more mature than a sophmore IMO. But is he a SF or PF? Saw him hit a couple 3's over the last few games, but is that actually part of his game?

I think he's a good player, but I thought Patrick Patterson was a better player and he's only panned out to be serviceable at best.

[Nivek]

I'd forgotten Washington had Dallas' 2nd round pick. They don't need another one, then. If the DX rankings are reasonably accurate, they should be able to get a couple good players in the 2nd round.

I still rather move up and get in the first round. Trade both are secound round picks for a first rounder.

Trade up for who? I'm open to the idea, but late 1st round pick cost a lot more, but usually aren't worth a lot more. If you can get Crowder (for example) in the 2nd round, it's smarter to take him there than with a pick in the 1st round.

[Rafael122]

I'd forgotten Washington had Dallas' 2nd round pick. They don't need another one, then. If the DX rankings are reasonably accurate, they should be able to get a couple good players in the 2nd round.

I still rather move up and get in the first round. Trade both are secound round picks for a first rounder.

Trade up for who? I'm open to the idea, but late 1st round pick cost a lot more, but usually aren't worth a lot more. If you can get Crowder (for example) in the 2nd round, it's smarter to take him there than with a pick in the 1st round.

DX currently has the Wizards taking MKG in the 1st, and Doran Lamb and Recardo Ratliffe in the 2nd. That's a pretty solid draft in my view. Lamb is an outside shooter, so he fills a need. Ratliffe is a banger and perfectly suited in that 4th or 5th big role.

[hands11]

Put me on the MKG bandwagon for sure! Hes the guy i was most impressed with in the last 2 kentucky games. He has a major knack for finishing around the rim. Today he showed a good stroke as well.

I see him as w 2 guard in the pros and a Wall / MKG backcourt would be pretty awesome. To me the only question on his game is if he can hit the 3 consistently but he has everything else.

Davis is a beast but I dont think he has super explosiveness. He has such rediculous length he doesnt need hops but he doesnt really get too high above the rim. davis is rail thin so itll be interesting to see what position he plays in the pros..is he a 4 or 5 . I see him as Tayshawn Prince with a little more upside. Davis definitely shows offensive potential and a nice stroke so I think when he gets to the pros hell show more.

For me though we need a 2 guard more than anything..we got a bench full of 3s and 4s but we dont have a 2 guard other than tweaners.

Seems there is something there for everyone who wants to see it. All projections but that is all we have. I wasn't warm to MKG this entire time but if he has that motor, he should be good. But then you need a pure shooter at the 3. Beal is more of the hybrid.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

MKG and D.Lamb would be a nice draft IMO. As would Beal and Crowder. I think we are in good position either way.

1. Davis
2. Beal/MKG
4. Robinson

I just hope we get a top 4 pick and I'll be happy.

[closg00]

I'd forgotten Washington had Dallas' 2nd round pick. They don't need another one, then. If the DX rankings are reasonably accurate, they should be able to get a couple good players in the 2nd round.

I'll take those trading chips, at-worst you use them on stash-away's. We used two picks to get Booker.

[The Consiglieri]

WizTom -- If I was making the call, I'd stay at number one and draft Davis. I'd cut Lewis and amnesty Blatche, then go shopping in free agency for additional help.

Also (if DX is to be believed), I'd try to pick up an extra 2nd round pick and see if I could come away with Jae Crowder and Marcus Denmon (emphasis on Crowder).

I think I agree, but it would at least make me think twice. Seeing a team like Indiana (and the early century Pistons) do well with an ensemble cast makes me wonder...

And wasn't Favors supposed to be a "phenom" as Ruzious called Davis?

It completely blows my mind that Ernie couldn't get Denver's 2nd rounder in the trade (currently #39). They look to be capped out as it is next year, with no room for what could be the nominally wasted salary of a 2nd rounder putting them in tax territory. Opportunity Lost, thy name is Grunfeld.

We already have 2 2nd round picks this year, and another 2 2nd round picks next year. We've got 6 picks in the next two drafts, do we really need more?

I think there's 3 players in entirety on this team that posters don't have a huge problem with. So yeah, we do need more

[The Consiglieri]

I'd forgotten Washington had Dallas' 2nd round pick. They don't need another one, then. If the DX rankings are reasonably accurate, they should be able to get a couple good players in the 2nd round.

Those picks should be packaged for a trade up. The value in this draft is in slots 8-18 or so. Trying to trade into the back end of the top 20 would be ideal. Im just not sure how we can swing it without packaging players, if basically an early second and a late 2nd got us 23 or so for Booker a few years ago, I think we'd need to add more than just 32 or 33 and 50-53 to try to get to 18 or so. I definitly think its worth doing.

Guys in that 15-25 range potentially include:

John Henson

Austin Rivers

Q. Miller

Meyers Leonard

Terrence Ross

Royce White

Tony Wroten

Jeff Taylor

Patric Young

Dion Waiters

James McAdoo

Arnett Moultrie

Tony Mitchell (UNT)

Doron Lamb

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Just looked Draftexpress mock has Wizards taking MKG and then Doron Lamb in 2nd round. Gotta say, I would not be mad... that would be a pretty good draft IMO.

At this point we should try and get another draft pick or two so we can get a chance at drafting 3/5 of Kentucky's starting 5.

Well a Wizards draft of MKG, D.Lamb, and Darius Miller with their 3 picks would not be out of the realm of possibilities.

[go'stags]

Robinson is also a tremendous athlete, something Sullinger is not. Also, as strong as Robinson is, he can get even stronger IMO.

Its easy to dismiss injury concerns when its in a single sentence, but that is a big, big concern. He is 20 with back concerns already? How is that going to get better in the NBA?

And I can almost guarantee that Robinson averages 15 PPG, and everyone knows he is a great rebounder.

Being a great athlete is far less reliable as an indicator of NBA impact than being a great basketball player. Plenty of physical specimens just don't make it in the NBA. And some of them, when they do, find themselves unable to overcome obstacles, whether it be injury or simply going up against bigger, better athletes for the first time in their lives.

I agree. But you make it sound as if Robinson is Perry Jones rather than a unanimous first team all-american. He has produced big numbers all year. Production and being a "basketball player" are not issues. You could make a strong argument that Robinson was a better basketball player than Sullinger this year.

In a way, your first post on the subject pretty much makes my point for me. Sullinger already is all of those things, while Robinson needs to work on those aspects of his game, especially his shooting and ball-handling. But even with those holes in his game, he was just as productive, if not more, than Sullinger, while also being on a final four team. When he corrects those parts of his skills, it stands to reason that he will be better than Sullinger.

Defensively, you have to make some projections. According to DX Robinson was a great defender before this year, albeit in smaller minutes, when he did not have not have to be the focal point on offense. He will be a better defender than Sulls because of that athleticism advantage. Robinson's quickness and mobility will make him a much more effective player against the pick and roll, though I can see Sullinger being decent in that regard, as well as against the quicker PFs in the lague. Neither will affect many shots near the basket, but Robinson has the Amare capability to come up with some big blocks when you need them.

I think Sullinger will be a pretty good player when healthy, just not as good as Robinson. And his health really scares me.

[gesa2]

I'd forgotten Washington had Dallas' 2nd round pick. They don't need another one, then. If the DX rankings are reasonably accurate, they should be able to get a couple good players in the 2nd round.

I still rather move up and get in the first round. Trade both are secound round picks for a first rounder.

Trade up for who? I'm open to the idea, but late 1st round pick cost a lot more, but usually aren't worth a lot more. If you can get Crowder (for example) in the 2nd round, it's smarter to take him there than with a pick in the 1st round.

I'd love to see how the projection systems see Crowder. I know he's 3 years older, but if you switched teams with him and MKG, I don't think you'd see much difference except that Crowder shoots .345 from 3. He also scores more, rebounds better, gets more assists,and has less turnovers, in about the same number of minutes.

[Severn Hoos]

Robinson is also a tremendous athlete, something Sullinger is not. Also, as strong as Robinson is, he can get even stronger IMO.

Its easy to dismiss injury concerns when its in a single sentence, but that is a big, big concern. He is 20 with back concerns already? How is that going to get better in the NBA?

And I can almost guarantee that Robinson averages 15 PPG, and everyone knows he is a great rebounder.

Being a great athlete is far less reliable as an indicator of NBA impact than being a great basketball player. Plenty of physical specimens just don't make it in the NBA. And some of them, when they do, find themselves unable to overcome obstacles, whether it be injury or simply going up against bigger, better athletes for the first time in their lives.

I agree. But you make it sound as if Robinson is Perry Jones rather than a unanimous first team all-american. He has produced big numbers all year. Production and being a "basketball player" are not issues. You could make a strong argument that Robinson was a better basketball player than Sullinger this year.

In a way, your first post on the subject pretty much makes my point for me. Sullinger already is all of those things, while Robinson needs to work on those aspects of his game, especially his shooting and ball-handling. But even with those holes in his game, he was just as productive, if not more, than Sullinger, while also being on a final four team. When he corrects those parts of his skills, it stands to reason that he will be better than Sullinger.

Defensively, you have to make some projections. According to DX Robinson was a great defender before this year, albeit in smaller minutes, when he did not have not have to be the focal point on offense. He will be a better defender than Sulls because of that athleticism advantage. Robinson's quickness and mobility will make him a much more effective player against the pick and roll, though I can see Sullinger being decent in that regard, as well as against the quicker PFs in the lague. Neither will affect many shots near the basket, but Robinson has the Amare capability to come up with some big blocks when you need them.

I think Sullinger will be a pretty good player when healthy, just not as good as Robinson. And his health really scares me.

But Sullinger's a year younger. Why do you assume Robinson can/will improve, while Sullinger can't/won't? He's already dropped a good amount of his HS weight, and I suspect he will improve his physical condition in the NBA, with full-time dedication, trainers, nutritionists, etc. Boozer and Love have already shown this pattern as well.

And on the defensive end, we've certainly seen that the "athleticism advantage" does not automatically translate to "better defender." They have both shown the ability to play a key role in a top defense, and I'm much more interested in that than I am in individual defensive prowess.

And even on that front - both look undersized (in terms of height) to me. Guys like Dirk, Gasol, etc. will probably be able to just turn and shoot right over either one of them. So I could see an argument that Sullinger's ability to push his man further out and/or hold his ground will cause that up and over shot to be further away from the hoop. (Not that Robinson is a weakling, but his weight is more upper body, while Sullinger's is lower-body and better suited to rooting out opposing Bigs.)

And I'll close with the same thing I've said every time - the injuries scare me too. I'm not proposing the Wiz take Sullinger, just that I think he will be a better pro than most here think, and conversely Robinson is likely not to fare as well as hoped. (And if he ends up as a Wizard, I sure hope I'm wrong!)

[go'stags]

But Sullinger's a year younger. Why do you assume Robinson can/will improve, while Sullinger can't/won't? He's already dropped a good amount of his HS weight, and I suspect he will improve his physical condition in the NBA, with full-time dedication, trainers, nutritionists, etc. Boozer and Love have already shown this pattern as well.

And on the defensive end, we've certainly seen that the "athleticism advantage" does not automatically translate to "better defender." They have both shown the ability to play a key role in a top defense, and I'm much more interested in that than I am in individual defensive prowess.

And even on that front - both look undersized (in terms of height) to me. Guys like Dirk, Gasol, etc. will probably be able to just turn and shoot right over either one of them. So I could see an argument that Sullinger's ability to push his man further out and/or hold his ground will cause that up and over shot to be further away from the hoop. (Not that Robinson is a weakling, but his weight is more upper body, while Sullinger's is lower-body and better suited to rooting out opposing Bigs.)

And I'll close with the same thing I've said every time - the injuries scare me too. I'm not proposing the Wiz take Sullinger, just that I think he will be a better pro than most here think, and conversely Robinson is likely not to fare as well as hoped. (And if he ends up as a Wizard, I sure hope I'm wrong!)

I think Robinson will improve more because he has a higher ceiling. I'm usually pretty wary of that phrase, but since Robinson already produces like an all-american I think it is pertinent. In short, Robinson's weaknesses (shooting, ball handling) are those that can be corrected with hard work. Sullinger's shortcomings are always going to be there. Even with NBA class training and facilities he"ll always be a little slow and un-athletic. I think Sullinger is much closer to a finished product than is Robinson, and I think Robinson is highly likely to reach his potential.

I tend to agree with you that the difference in their defense will be negligible, although I will give Robinson the slight edge just because of the quickness advantage. But I'm not buying Robinson being weaker down low than Sully. Strength is the last thing we need to worry about with T-Rob. I do think Robinson will be a better rebounder than Sullinger.

I agree with you that Sullinger will be a better pro than most people think. A big that wide, smart and skilled will produce. I see him easily developing a money jumper and relying on that, but, same as you, his injuries scare me. Lets just get Davis.

BTW, Speaking of money jumpers, I am very interested in how your boy Mike Scott measures out. He is automatic from mid-range.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Since this entire thread is based on hypothetical situations in the future (and it's the second hundred pages on the subject -- way to go Wizards dreamers!), I have a hypothetical scenario to put before you as food for thought. I'm not sure I have an answer. So here goes:

Wizards win the 1st pick in the lottery;

Utah calls offering their 2 first rounders + Kanter (or Favors). That would be picks like 9 or 10 plus 13 at the moment, which could net us players like Henson, Sully, Zeller, PJIII, or any one else who's fallen, plus a backcourt shooter;

and then

Portland calls offering the better of their 2 first rounders + Batum, which would probably be pick 4 or 5, getting us someone like T.Robinson, Drummond, perhaps Beal, Barnes, etc...

Do we say "screw 'em all" and take Anthony Davis, even though we have bigger holes to fill?

Or do we have enough confidence in our post rotation as it is to pass on Davis and fill some other needs?

I loved Kanter for us last year. Kentucky connection, fundamentally strong big man which we desperately needed, etc... I also like Favors because now we have Nene to cover the fundamentals big guy but no high-riser in the post rotation, as we saw the other night against Hibbert. Plus two picks to take shots at the BPA and/or fill wing holes.

And I like Batum, especially if we could get Beal or T-Rob, or even MKG, which would definitely make us competitive, if not playoff bound next year.

Then again, a frontline of Davis with Keveeen/Book/Nene and any shooters from our second rounders would be a great future.

Tough call. Thoughts? What would Ernie do? (Almost hope we don't have to find out...)

Whoa, that's a lot to think about, WizTom.

I think for simplicity's sake you keep Davis. He's really good and will dominate in the pros.

I would be scared to pass on Davis, WizTom. I hope the Wizards can land Batum as a FA, if they haven't tied up too much money on Nene.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

WizTom -- If I was making the call, I'd stay at number one and draft Davis. I'd cut Lewis and amnesty Blatche, then go shopping in free agency for additional help.

Also (if DX is to be believed), I'd try to pick up an extra 2nd round pick and see if I could come away with Jae Crowder and Marcus Denmon (emphasis on Crowder).

Right now, I'd say Crowder is flying very low beneath the radar as a guy who you know will be good but who for some strange reason isn't ranked higher. Denmon simply shoots it too well to fail.

I'm afraid of the risk on Royce White. Legal problems, anxiety, fear of flying, and just a weird vibe I get from him puts him in a category I didn't put Cousins in. Otherwise, the guy is pretty can't miss.

I really like guys like Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum if he declares, Draymond Green, and Scott Machado. They've got so much experience playing at a high level, they're locks to contribute at the next level. I love Will Barton's overall makeup as a player who can come right in and help a pro team.

Nivek is right, there are a bunch of guys (all but Lillard) that should be on the board in round 2 who can probably help the Wizards right away.

[WizarDynasty]

i immediately thought of dwade when i saw royce drive the basket. Explosive drive and he just knocks people off balance when they try to nudge him off his driving lane because of his body strength and when he gets to his attack point in the lane, still gets off the ground with power and balance even when people are pushing him. Also has a quick first step for such a big body.
He does seem to be a bit nutty and seems to have alot of red flags off the court. He is the type who you let explode with his play and then trade him for a player with slightly less upside and stable mind. Once he is dominating on the court, you can still get a decent return for him, kind of like monta ellis for Bogut. monta had same problems but he produced, they traded him for a pretty decent player when healthy without the mental problems. pretty good return.

we did the same thing with mcgee.

[closg00]

I wrote an article on my top 30 prospects if you guys are interested since the discussion here seems pretty decent: http://asubstituteforwar.com/2012/03/26 ... arch-2012/ Second straight year where some rankings are far off enough to look like an insult to NBA teams/scouts, but that's OK, they don't deserve the benefit of the doubt

Thanks for dropping that article. C Meyers Leonard #2 pick?? Is he this-years Faried?

[Ruzious]

I wrote an article on my top 30 prospects if you guys are interested since the discussion here seems pretty decent: http://asubstituteforwar.com/2012/03/26 ... arch-2012/ Second straight year where some rankings are far off enough to look like an insult to NBA teams/scouts, but that's OK, they don't deserve the benefit of the doubt

Thanks for dropping that article. C Meyers Leonard #2 pick?? Is he this-years Faried?

Meyers Leonard is a more talented Cherokee Parks - without the tatoos. All of the physical ability and skills are there. The mental makeup isn't there yet for the kid.