Pistons vs Wizards--Tankalicious Delight

[montestewart]

Actually, I've posted effusive praise of Wall in the game threads where Wall actually played well. The reason you can't remember that is because it's only happened 3 times. At Detroit, At New Orleans and I think vs Miami.

Thats just ridiculous and you lose credibility with a statement like that. I guess 38/8/6/4 steals on 59% shooting v Houston was a bad game.

See, the thing is, it was close at the half, no thanks to Wall's 14 points (5-10 FGs) and 4 assists. In the third quarter, Wall shot 3-5 with 4 assists (selfish ball hog) and only one TO (clearly playing too tentatively and conservatively), and the rest of the team shot 7-18 that quarter (showing Wall's inability to find his teammates in their sweet spots and make them better). Rockets outscored the Wizards 33-21 that quarter, to lead 91-75.

To make things worse, Wall tried to take over in the 4th quarter ("it's all about me"), taking shot after shot (don't think he didn't miss a couple), and his out-of-control drives were illustrated by his nine trips to the FT line (no surprise, he missed one there too). You get 18 points and zero assists in a quarter, you might be someone who will try to do whatever it takes to win, but you're no point guard. Note to Wall: if you're going to cut a lead by eight points, you better make sure they were only ahead by seven.

Let's not forget he had two turnovers, and he gave a poor post game interview. By any measure, Wall did not have a good game.

[queridiculo]

See, the thing is, it was close at the half, no thanks to Wall's 14 points (5-10 FGs) and 4 assists. In the third quarter, Wall shot 3-5 with 4 assists (selfish ball hog) and only one TO (clearly playing too tentatively and conservatively), and the rest of the team shot 7-18 that quarter (showing Wall's inability to find his teammates in their sweet spots and make them better). Rockets outscored the Wizards 33-21 that quarter, to lead 91-75.

To make things worse, Wall tried to take over in the 4th quarter ("it's all about me"), taking shot after shot (don't think he didn't miss a couple), and his out-of-control drives were illustrated by his nine trips to the FT line (no surprise, he missed one there too). You get 18 points and zero assists in a quarter, you might be someone who will try to do whatever it takes to win, but you're no point guard. Note to Wall: if you're going to cut a lead by eight points, you better make sure they were only ahead by seven.

Let's not forget he had two turnovers, and he gave a poor post game interview. By any measure, Wall did not have a good game.

There, fixed.

[Ed Wood]

No see, we don't do the green font. The green font is dumb. Don't do the green font.

[JonathanJoseph]

jeez, 3 games all year.

Really?

JJ, your tangent contains some truths. Prime Nash would do better, as would a bunch of others, but when you look at 2nd year PGs, I think it's a pretty short list that clearly would have done appreciably better under similar circumstances.

Wall has flaws, and many of them are observed and commented on by Wall fans. His passive spectator mode drives me batty, as does some of his out of control drives, and his shot is what it is (maybe it will get better with practice) but he shouldn't try some of his shots and instead try to make something else happen, even on this lousy team.

It's easy for most of us long-time Wizards observers to see how this situation can improve. More and better shooters, a clear (and good) go to scorer, less selfish players, team stability, and Wall getting more experience, making more veteran decisions, and improving his shot could all contribute to his improved play.

Looking at the bright side, the Wizards have won nine times when Wall was not having a good game. I'm still amazed that they managed to beat Portland on the road with Wall getting only 29 points (10-14 FGs) and only 9 assists, while allowing Felton to go off for four points.

Thanks, Monte. I do appreciate posters who reply with reason and logic without resorting to immediate insults and personal attacks and if we had more of them (and we used to), this would be a better place for it. Much respect for the classy response.

I'd like to take a moment to refute a few of those points, because not surprisingly, I disagree.

This has nothing to do with prime Nash. If today's 38 year old Steve Nash had been the PG of the Washington Wizards over the past week instead of Wall, we'd have won 4 of 5 since the trade. This is not some wild leap of faith this is just suggesting that smart PG play would have resulted in not-blowing 3 double digit leads.

The entire meme that other second year PGs wouldn't do better under similar circumstances is untrue when you actually look at it. Kyrie Irving, for example, has taken the Cavs from a .232 win% to a .370 win% in one year. The Jazz were .317 the year before Deron Williams and .500 in his rookie year and .622 in year 2. Chris Paul took NOLA from .220 to .463 in his rookie year, and the three other highest PERs on that team were David West, Speedy Claxton and Kirk Snyder. Derrick Rose improved the Bulls from .402 to .500 in his rookie season with basically the same roster. Brandon Jennings rookie year lifted the Bucks from .415 to .561.

And I just listed rookie seasons. So when you say it's a "pretty short list", I just listed almost 20% of the starting PGs in the NBA and I didn't bother mentioning Rubio (the Wolves are 3-6 since Rubio's injury) or Westbrook, players who obviously made a difference in their 1st/2nd years. Other top PGs had different career trajectories (Nash, Kidd, Rondo).

All of this "John Wall can't possibly be expected to do anything with this roster" is literally and provably nonsense. Notice that I didn't say he should make the team .500 or make the playoffs or anything, but the Wizards should be better with Wall than without. Except so far they aren't. The Wiz were .316 the year before Wall (and that included blowing a team up and a resulting 16 game losing streak) and with Wall the Wiz went down to .280 and now down to .224.

In fact, Wall missed 13 games last season in which the Wiz went 4-9. Uh, that comes out to .307 win%. You can make a very strong, fact filled argument that the Wizards are worse off with Wall than without him. The fact is, if Wall were anywhere close to the player he's made out to be, he would be able to single handedly get the Wizards to a .300 win%. I'm not setting the bar very high there either.

When you say things like "Wall needs to make more veteran plays", it can also be interpreted as Wall needs to learn how to be a PG and not an athlete. As Flip Saunders said himself, point guards aren't made they are delivered from heaven. He's going on 22 years old, some of the fundamentals that he doesn't have (i.e., using picks effectively, taking smart shots, getting hot teammates involved, game/clock management) are quite commonly mastered by high school and sometimes even junior varsity players. Wall can certainly improve on things but I don't ever see him becoming a franchise PG much less an all-star PG.

Believe me I wish it weren't so.

[montestewart]

Just last night I was commenting to my wife how Wall repeatedly fails to use picks properly, and Nene, Seraphin, and even Vesely (maybe it's a foreign player thing) offer up pretty good ones. Wall and others not cutting properly sometimes pulls the setter into a moving pick foul.

As I said (or at least Implied) you make some valid points JJ. I won't rebut point for point, because I think we're generally looking at the same play, stats, comparisons, etc., and much our disagreement over Wall comes down to differing points of view.

Wall either will get better, or he won't. I hope he does, and assume you do too. On this board, you're sort of an outlier on Wall, but I pretty much like many of these posts and their responses. You don't candy coat things, but neither does nate33 or CCJ. I like civility, but I like a good debate (with lots of stats, charts, and graphs).

Go Wall!

[JonathanJoseph]

Just last night I was commenting to my wife how Wall repeatedly fails to use picks properly, and Nene, Seraphin, and even Vesely (maybe it's a foreign player thing) offer up pretty good ones. Wall and others not cutting properly sometimes pulls the setter into a moving pick foul.

As I said (or at least Implied) you make some valid points JJ. I won't rebut point for point, because I think we're generally looking at the same play, stats, comparisons, etc., and much our disagreement over Wall comes down to differing points of view.

Wall either will get better, or he won't. I hope he does, and assume you do too. On this board, you're sort of an outlier on Wall, but I pretty much like many of these posts and their responses. You don't candy coat things, but neither does nate33 or CCJ. I like civility, but I like a good debate (with lots of stats, charts, and graphs).

Go Wall!

Agreeing to disagree over well formed arguments is what this place should be about. Good stuff.

[jivelikenice]

JJ

I see a lot of the things that frustrate you but i think you're being too simplistic in your argument. In my opinion for example you've called Irving a better pg and I just don't see it. He's a better scorer and a more mature offensive scorer, but what exactly makes him a better pg? He used screens better but he uses them to create his own offense. They surround him with shooters, they spread out the floor, and basically let him go out and score. I'm watching right now and he's either in attack mode or standing around. He's a scoring pg...That does not mean he’s a better pg.

You also referenced the Bucks, Bulls, Jazz, and Hornets as teams that improved in other pgs rookie years.
Milwaukee Bucks-8 guys averaged double figures for them. Bogut was a 16/10 guy then and Salmons averaged 20 ppg when he came over on 47% shooting. – Scott Skiles Coaching

Chicago Bulls- Ben Gordon, Loul Deng, Brad Miller, Andre Nocioi, Kirk Hinrich, J Noah, Drew Goodon, Larry Hughes, Tyrus Thomas

Utah Jazz- Okur, Boozer, Kirlenko, Harpring, Giricek, and most importantly Jerry Sloan!

New Orleans- Admittedly they had the least talent and Chris Paul did a great job of bringing them up to speed but they did have a legit PF in Davis West- 17ppg with 50% shooting

Who on the Wizards outside of Nene who just joined the roster would have cracked the rotation for these teams, let alone the starting lineup? Not including Nene only 3 players aside from Wall average double figures and two of them are shooting guards who shoot 40% from the floor. You can say what you want about Wall but he has clearly been dealt the worst hand in terms of talent to play with.

I’ve said John has flaws and things he needs to work on, but if you’re going to draft someone like him, you have to put a team around him that can complement his skill set. He needs an open floor. I went back and watched highlights of some of his most effective games especially early in his rookie season and they really did a good job of spacing the floor for him. They ran the pick and roll very high and spaced pretty well. Teams inevitably made adjustments though when they realized nobody on the roster could shoot and I think Flip did a poor job with him (seems like he beat playing w/ reckless abandon out of him). Also just guessing, but the emphasis on John’s turnovers early in his career probably made him gunshy. The spacing issue also just makes it even more apparent that Vesely was a poor pick unless he can develop a jumpshot.

We have a two capable big man now and I’m very curious as to how they’re going to build the team and who’s going to coach it. Can you get the necessary spacing out of a Nene/Seraphin front court? I think so but you need players who can shoot and drive off their opportunities at the 2 & 3 and you need a coach who can implement this type of system. I wasn’t big on him but maybe D’antoni is the right guy if you want Wall to be the best player he can be?

[tontoz]

The entire meme that other second year PGs wouldn't do better under similar circumstances is untrue when you actually look at it. Kyrie Irving, for example, has taken the Cavs from a .232 win% to a .370 win% in one year. The Jazz were .317 the year before Deron Williams and .500 in his rookie year and .622 in year 2. Chris Paul took NOLA from .220 to .463 in his rookie year, and the three other highest PERs on that team were David West, Speedy Claxton and Kirk Snyder. Derrick Rose improved the Bulls from .402 to .500 in his rookie season with basically the same roster. Brandon Jennings rookie year lifted the Bucks from .415 to .561.

Those comparisons don't hold up because those teams didn't trade away their leading scorers. The Wizards traded away several of their leading scorers last year and this year they traded McGee/Young and deactivated Blatche. Not surprisingly they are now struggling to score.

Feel free to name any team with worse swingmen than the Wizards.

[ST21]

Jonathan Joseph keeps comparing wall to current Elite top 5 pg's and the stats aren't that far off. so he must be doing something right. ''

[JonathanJoseph]

Jonathan Joseph keeps comparing wall to current Elite top 5 pg's and the stats aren't that far off. so he must be doing something right. ''

Except for wins and losses, which aren't even trending in the right direction.

If you have the audacity to compare Wall to CP3, Deron Williams, Rose, etc than you must admit that Wall should be single-handedly able to raise the Wizards to .300.

Every single one of the "current Elite top 5 PGs" made a significant and immediate difference in wins and losses. Wall has been both bad and regressing in that category and we're getting near the end of year 2.

People can agree to disagree on opinions but the facts are what they are.

[dangermouse]

Kevin Durant took the Supersonics from a .378 team to a .244 team in his rookie year, and only raising 3 more wins in his second year.

If Kevin Durant was really any good he would have improved the team, not made it worse!

[tontoz]

Jonathan Joseph keeps comparing wall to current Elite top 5 pg's and the stats aren't that far off. so he must be doing something right. ''

Except for wins and losses, which aren't even trending in the right direction.

If you have the audacity to compare Wall to CP3, Deron Williams, Rose, etc than you must admit that Wall should be single-handedly able to raise the Wizards to .300.

Every single one of the "current Elite top 5 PGs" made a significant and immediate difference in wins and losses. Wall has been both bad and regressing in that category and we're getting near the end of year 2.

People can agree to disagree on opinions but the facts are what they are.

Your facts have a hole you could drive a truck through. The Hornets didn't trade away their leading scorers year after year. neither did the other teams. The Wizards did that the last 3 years.

You are pretty selective with your "facts".

[Illuminaire]

It's very difficult to imagine any rookie or sophomore PG in the last ten years being able to step in to Wall's place here and have a significant positive impact on wins/losses. Chris Paul, a once in a generation Hall of Fame bound player, may be the only exception.

I mean, if wins are the only thing that matters and the rosters around a PG are unimportant, I guess that means Deron Williams is another great stats on a bad team loser, right?

[Nivek]

Chris Paul "single-handedly" transforming the Hornets isn't accurate. Comparing the year before he was drafted to his rookie season, the Hornets turned over their roster in a huge way. 9 players who had appeared in games in 04-05 were gone the following season. Players who consumed 49% of New Orleans minutes were off the roster completely.

Here's the list of players who got at least 500 minutes in the year before Paul arrived compared with players who got at least 500 minutes in his rookie season:

Code: Select all

2004-05         MIN%    2005-06         MIN%
P.J. Brown      14%     Chris Paul      14%
Dan Dickau      10%     David West      13%
Lee Nailon      10%     P.J. Brown      12%
J.R. Smith      9%      D. Mason        11%
Andersen        7%      S. Claxton      10%
B. Nachbar      6%      Rasual Butler   9%
Jacobsen        5%      Kirk Snyder     7%
D.Wesley        5%      J.R. Smith      5%
G. Lynch        5%      A.Williams      3%
R.Rogers        4%      Marc Jackson    3%
Magloire        4%      Andersen        3%
J. Vroman       3%             
Baron Davis     3%             
David West      3%             
J.Harrington    3%             



I might take a look at Rose's rookie season later, but there's almost never just one change. Most bad teams turn their rosters over.

[nate33]

I mean, if wins are the only thing that matters and the rosters around a PG are unimportant, I guess that means Deron Williams is another great stats on a bad team loser, right?

We must keep reminding ourselves this.

Deron Williams is currently averaging 21.6 points, 8.2 assists, 3.3 rebounds and 4.0 turnovers with a TS% of .533. per 36 minutes (PER of 20.8) while playing for a bad team.

John Wall is currently averaging 16.6 points, 7.7 assists, 4.7 rebounds and 3.8 turnovers with a TS% of .510 per 36 minutes (PER of 18.1) while playing for a bad team. If you ignored Wall's first 13 games, his averages would be much better. Basically, if Wall's jumper falls a little more, he'd be putting up Deron Williams' numbers in just his 2nd year.

[Nivek]

Okay, here's the look at Rose and the Bulls. Their roster turnover was much less than New Orleans -- players who consumed 27% of the minutes the previous season were no longer on the roster. Looking at the numbers, Rose's minutes were basically Duhon's minutes + the cut in Hinrich's playing time. Other changes: Ben Wallace departed -- his minutes were consumed by a combination of Noah and Tyrus Thomas. Deng's minutes were down because he got hurt -- he missed 33 games.

The Bulls record improved by 8 wins.

The players who got 500+ minutes for the Bulls in each of these seasons:

Code: Select all

2007-08         MIN%    2008-09         MIN%
Kirk Hinrich    12%     Derrick Rose    15%
Ben Gordon      12%     Ben Gordon      15%
Luol Deng       11%     Tyrus Thomas    11%
Andres Nocioni  10%     Joakim Noah     10%
Ben Wallace     8%      Luol Deng       8%
Joakim Noah     8%      Kirk Hinrich    7%
Chris Duhon     8%      Andres Nocioni  6%
Sefalosha       7%      John Salmons    5%
Tyrus Thomas    7%      Drew Gooden     5%
Joe Smith       6%      Larry Hughes    4%
Larry Hughes    4%      Brad Miller     4%
Aaron Gray      3%      Sefalosha       4%
Drew Gooden     3%      Aaron Gray      4%


[Nivek]

Now Wall and the Wizards. Players who consumed 65% of the Wizards minutes in 09-10 were off the roster in Wall's rookie season. Those players included: Butler, Mike Miller, Foye, Haywood, and Jamison. Their minutes were replaced McGee, Young, Hinrich, and Yi.

The list of 500+ minute guys for the Wizards in those two seasons:

Code: Select all

2009-2010       MIN%    2010-2011       MIN%
Andray Blatche  11%     John Wall       13%
Caron Butler    9%      JaVale McGee    11%
Mike Miller     9%      Andray Blatche  11%
Randy Foye      8%      Nick Young      10%
Brendan Haywood 8%      Kirk Hinrich    7%
Antawn Jamison  8%      Yi Jianlian     6%
Nick Young      7%      Al Thornton     5%
Gilbert Arenas  6%      Trevor Booker   5%
Earl Boykins    6%      Rashard Lewis   5%
JaVale McGee    5%      Jordan Crawford 4%
James Singleton 4%      Gilbert Arenas  4%
Al Thornton     3%      Maurice Evans   4%
Livingston      3%      Kevin Seraphin  3%
Fabricio Oberto 3%      Cartier Martin  3%
Stevenson       3%             


There's no such thing as "single-handedly" when it comes to creating wins in team sports.

[Zonkerbl]

Holy suckitude batman!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/wi ... story.html

"In the past three games at home, the Wizards have been outscored, 81-46, and outrebounded, 45-20, in the fourth quarter. Indiana, Atlanta and Detroit have also held an edge of 27-4 in second-chance points in the final period."

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Holy suckitude batman!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/wi ... story.html

"In the past three games at home, the Wizards have been outscored, 81-46, and outrebounded, 45-20, in the fourth quarter. Indiana, Atlanta and Detroit have also held an edge of 27-4 in second-chance points in the final period."

That bad defense is all Javale McGee's fault.

In all seriousness, the Wizard no longer have a single good rebounder on their team. Nene's career rebounding rate is actually slightly lower than Ryan Anderson's, and Anderson has to battle Dwight Howard for boards. Seraphin averages 9.0 rebounds per-36, slightly more than Nene's career figure and at his highest rate. While that may sound okay, Javale averages 11.6 rebound per-36 this season.

In comparison, DeJuan Blair's average is also 11.6 rebounds per-36.

This season, DeMarcus Cousins averages 13.3 rebounds per-36.

Nene is really, really good at putting the ball in the basket when he does decide to shoot. I love his passing. He seems like an active, intelligent defender. However, he looked helpless defending Hibbert. He's also not a good rebounder.

I expect Kevin's rebounding figures will improve with time, but that he's never going to be considered a great rebounder.

Javale OTOH is still improving as a rebounder. I fully expect he is going to have a much better career than the Wizards management and fans who wanted him gone believe possible.

[Liverbird]

We were also on a back2back2back so it's not entirely a surprise we drifted in the 4th quarter....but yes, we need better rebounding. Sorry CCJ - I don't think Javale is the answer for this team - we need to see a Seraphin/Nene combination, continued improvement from Booker or draft someone who can rebound.