2012 NBA Draft - Part II

[nate33]

CCJ, I agree that perimeter play is a need but you can never have enough bigs. Nene can't be relied upon for 82 games a year and this gives you depth. A Nene, Robinson, Seraphin, and Vesely front court would give you depth, toughness, and physicality. As Nene gets older we can then hope that Seraphin develops as the C of the future and the 4 & 5 is set for the next 5-7 yrs.

Booker would be the odd man out. I love the guy but he's a luxury for us and we can use him to get back in the late lottery-mid first range or deal him for a wing player.

There are also a lot of good fa shooters out there. Some have been talked about repeatedly but thee are a lot of other less expensive alternatives like Lou Williams, Delfino, Courtney Lee, Fields, Jodie Meeks, and Budinger. My point is you'll never be able to sign a double double PF on the cheap, but you can find cheap shooting. If you land T-Rob you're set at the 1, 4, & 5 for the forseeable future...the hardest positions to address in FA. Get your wings by trading Booker and FA.

I also think that using age against Robinson is a big mistake. I think its crazy to think a 21 yr old is finished developing as a player, but moreso in this case because he was playing behind the Morris twins for two years and playing strictly on the block at KU, which he won't in the NBA. There are just too many examples of gms reaching based on the potential of an 18 yr old and bypassing more more mature players because they're deemed as safe picks woith low upside

Great post. I agree with every word.

Draft Robinson at #2. Eventually trade Booker or Vesely for a wing (but don't rush into a bad trade). Sign another decent wing in free agency. We'd be good to go. Our absolute upside would be dependent on whether Wall or Robinson ultimately develop into superstars or just merely stars. (We could also get an upside boost out of Seraphin and/or Vesely. Both might pan out to be much better than they are right now.)

I'm open-minded to drafting MKG ahead of Robinson. I get the argument that he has a higher ceiling if he develops a jumper. I'm just not smart enough to know which guy will be better so I'll just say that I'd be happy with either.

[DCZards]

One small point on CCJ's Faried vs. Robinson comparison:

Robinson played against better competition. While it's true that Faried played pretty well when matched up against top tier competition, he also played many games against lesser players. His rebounding and FG% numbers were inflated in those games. Put Robinson on Morehead St. and he would probably have grabbed 13-14 boards per game too.

+1

I was about to make the same point.

[WizarDynasty]

my take on robinson is that he is great rebounder and would be an upgrade over booker but how much better is he over another great rebounder that plays no defense in Kris Humphries.
Robinson has a nice first step but he has way to much upper body muscle for us to expect him magically gain offensive coordination.
I see him as a slightly quicker worse rebounding but still great kris humphries. We had plenty of opportunities to go after kris humphries and chose not too. What's the point wasting a draft pick on him.
AGain, i would like Trob alot more if he actually was dominant defensive presence or that he was non defensive but was excellent at drawing fouls. He has the paul milisap kris humphries, low to the ground powerfully built body that allows him to hold off and maintain great rebounding position. Outside of that, he is pretty mediocre at everything else. AGain, Booker is pretty mediocre at pretty everything so he is an upgrade but that's like saying Blatche was an upgrade defensively over jamison. We need a rebounding now that McGee is gone, but we also need someone who isn't going to be on either offense or defense. Trob is above average rebounder and that's all. If an underesize rebounder is what we suffer season lOst we should just go out and sign kris humphries. if we want a slight upgrade at shooting guard, we go with beal who to me doesn't look like he has an explosive first step but is aggresive taking it to the hole and streaky shooter but mediocre defensively and then we got drummond who is as clueless as mcgee but has all the attributes that would have still made mcgee a cornerstone of the wizards if he had them, quick lateral agility and outstanding lower body strength to go along with shotblocking.
As for the future, wizards have no one to protect the rim. We have two way powerforward that has excellent mobility, team leadership, toughness and skill but he isn't a shotblocker and Nene needs a shotblocker rebounder next to him.
If the short term trob will be an upgrade over booker but I don't see much upside left in trob outside of his excellent strength at maintaining rebounding leverage. If he actually played above the rim, i would be more optimistic...i guess i just like guys who can almost touch the rim standing straight up without jumping who also are extremely coordinated, can catch alleyhoops, play post defense, big coordinated hands, that have greg oden type strength at age 18.

[pancakes3]

i guess i just like guys who can almost touch the rim standing straight up without jumping who also are extremely coordinated, can catch alleyhoops, play post defense, big coordinated hands, that have greg oden type strength at age 18.

this most "not sure if serious" post of my internet experience to date.

[doclinkin]

So ccj, I'm dying to know -- who's this year's Faried?

Jae Crowder, but shhh don't tell everybody. We want him in round 2.

[Nivek]

In my stuff, which includes an adjustment for level of competition, Faried rates about the same as Robinson. Nearly a dead heat -- basically a "pick the guy you like better" difference.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

One small point on CCJ's Faried vs. Robinson comparison:

Robinson played against better competition. While it's true that Faried played pretty well when matched up against top tier competition, he also played many games against lesser players. His rebounding and FG% numbers were inflated in those games. Put Robinson on Morehead St. and he would probably have grabbed 13-14 boards per game too.

Overall, I think Faried might be a pretty good comparison. Robinson might be pretty similar to Faried, with better offense but not quite as good D and maybe a little less rebounding.

Robinson led the nation this year, and I don't think it is really worth quibbling on his rebounding. He is a terrific rebounder in the mold of a Buck Williams.

Robinson played against better competition, true. However, Faried also played head-to-head against Robinson and the Morris twins, along with Aldrich each time on their home court. Faried played against Macklin and Parsons on their court. Faried played against Cousins and Wall on their court. Faried met Louisville (with Dieng) and knocked them out of the NCAAs last season. Faried played very well against the best NCAA competition. Unlike Robinson, Faried didn't have Withey to handle most of the interior defense. In fact, Faried had crappy teammates for the most part.

I think Faried is a special talent but I'm not willing to concede Thomas will match Faried. Not yet.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

So ccj, I'm dying to know -- who's this year's Faried?

Jae Crowder, but shhh don't tell everybody. We want him in round 2.

Roger that on who will drop way too far in this draft.

For whatever reasons, I'm one of the few who really like Will Barton as a SG at the next level.

CJ McCollum looks better than Austin Rivers, but I have to be fair and use my Thomas Robinson-age comparative and say Rivers is just a freshman. I can't stand that kid for some reason.

My biases this season are against Harrison Barnes, Perry Jones III, Austin Rivers, and Andre Drummond. I think they'll all go way too high.

[Zonkerbl]

So has anyone ever, you know, emailed Leonsis with a history of ccj's correct picks (and misses, too, to be fair) and his suggestions for this year?

[Ruzious]

So ccj, I'm dying to know -- who's this year's Faried?

Jae Crowder, but shhh don't tell everybody. We want him in round 2.

Roger that on who will drop way too far in this draft.

For whatever reasons, I'm one of the few who really like Will Barton as a SG at the next level.

CJ McCollum looks better than Austin Rivers, but I have to be fair and use my Thomas Robinson-age comparative and say Rivers is just a freshman. I can't stand that kid for some reason.

My biases this season are against Harrison Barnes, Perry Jones III, Austin Rivers, and Andre Drummond. I think they'll all go way too high.

Any thoughts on Trevor Mbakwe of Minnesota? http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Tre ... 339/stats/ He's been oft-injured and was recently granted another year of eligibility, but he might not take it - as he's already a bit over-aged as a prospect. But physically, he seems a lot like Faried, and he has great rebounding numbers - as well as extremely efficient shooting numbers. But circumstances seem to have conspired to prevent him from playing a lot of games. He's only 6'8.5, but he has 7'4 length.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Honestly, I heard a little about him last season. I know he and not Ralph Sampson III was their promising big man. Other than that, Ruz, I didn't even follow his progress this season.

Got this off the wire, FYI:

http://www.twincities.com/ci_20239499/g ... ost_viewed

Big Ten Network analyst Tim Doyle said the Gophers are a "legit top-five or -six (Big Ten) team" next season if Mbakwe returns healthy. Mbakwe's absence, Doyle said, was a blessing for junior forward Rodney Williams and freshman point guard Andre Hollins, who have emerged lately.

Williams and Hollins are each averaging 20 points per game in the past five games for Minnesota (22-14), which has advanced to the National Invitation Tournament semifinals and will play Washington on Tuesday at New York's Madison Square Garden.

"I think it would be great for Trevor to be able to play another year - it would be great for Minnesota," ESPN college basketball analyst Jay Bilas said. "If they had him the whole year, I don't think there would have been any question they would have contended in the league and would have been an NCAA tournament team. They were almost there without him."

Seems the guy has had a lot to go through. Medical redshirt and possible 6th season. He's already 23 years old. Had one season off while facing an assault case that was resolved favorably. St Paul native who Tubby likes and wants back, only he's got no scholarship from the University of Minnesota.

Ruz, since Mbakwe has got to get healthy, anyway, IMO it would be best for him to come back and play and hope to gain some notoriety next season. Bernard James played at FSU this past season at 27 years old. He will get a pro contract, somewhere, for sure. So will Mbakwe, eventually.

He improves his future earning if he comes back, most likely. Also, he should have a lot of fun as a leader on a successful team. You can still wait to earn money when you're 23-24. Especially if waiting helps you in the long haul.

[DCZards]

Faired and Robinson may have a lot of statistical similarities but skill wise they are two very different players. Faired is more athletic and a cat-quick high flier who runs the floor extremely well. Faired is perfect for Denver's high octane, league leading scoring offense. Robinson is bigger and stronger and more suited for the grind-it-out, half court offense more common to eastern conf basketball and, I would argue, more essential to playing winning ball during the playoffs.

[Nivek]

You guys are posting names that look good in my stat stuff. Crowder looks like he 's going to be a steal for someone. Mbakwe was very productive in few games. I agree with ccj that McCollum looks better than Rivers. To be blunt, nearly everyone looks better than Rivers among this years prospects.

Ccj... I concur with you on Barton. Waiters is another one I think can develop into a solid pro.

Thoughts on Ricardo Ratliffe? He looks good in my stuff.

[DCZards]

Austin Rivers will be a top 15 pick and a star in the NBA. Let's not forget that he was a frosh...and often played like one. A little unfair to compare him to upperclassmen like McCollum and Crowder.

[fugop]

How does Waiters compare to Beal, Kevin? Waiters is a much worse rebounder, but again, the Syracuse zone comes into play there. Other than that, Waiters seems comparable or better. I think measurements will ultimately determine which is the better pick.

[Severn Hoos]

Doug Gottlieb made my day today. In about 2 minutes of his show today, he said in rapid fire:

MKG will be drafted in the Lottery, and that will be a bit too high (in his opinion)
Doron Lamb is a 2nd round pick (hopefully at #32 - or #33!)
Robinson was "exposed" (his word) in the Final Four. Will be a solid rotation player, but will struggle with the length in the NBA. (no, this wasn't what made my day. )
"Write it down" - Drummond will be the 2nd pick.

The last statement is what made me so happy. Because I have no interest in drafting Drummond, this means that either one more guy drops to the Wiz (if we don't end up #1 or #2), or if we do end up at #2, maybe the pick becomes more valuable.

Then I started thinking - suppose the Wiz do get the #2 pick. Utah is currently at #9. Would you trade the #2 for the #9 and Kanter? Would they do it? They have about 17 PFs, but no real C. If they think Drummond is a real C, it may be the only real chance they have to get a C, since they'll never sign a FA unless it's Shawn Bradley.

And although I'm uncertain about how Kanter & Nene would work together, we know Wall was a huge advocate for Enes last year, and would presumably still be in favor of adding him to the team. At 9, I doubt Beal drops that far, but Jeremy Lamb might be there. I guess you wouldn't need a Zeller at that point, but I'd consider PJ3 at that spot.

Anyway, it was fun to speculate. I do hope the Drummond at #2 is right, because no matter what happens, it adds to the options for the Wiz.

[Nivek]

Austin Rivers will be a top 15 pick and a star in the NBA. Let's not forget that he was a frosh...and often played like one. A little unfair to compare him to upperclassmen like McCollum and Crowder.

I think if Rivers enters this year's draft, he'll end up a bust. Especially if he goes in the top 15. Unless he does a TON of work on his body and game. Just my opinion.

fugop: I'll get back to you on Waiters. I don't have my info with me at the moment.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

You guys are posting names that look good in my stat stuff. Crowder looks like he 's going to be a steal for someone. Mbakwe was very productive in few games. I agree with ccj that McCollum looks better than Rivers. To be blunt, nearly everyone looks better than Rivers among this years prospects.

Ccj... I concur with you on Barton. Waiters is another one I think can develop into a solid pro.

Thoughts on Ricardo Ratliffe? He looks good in my stuff.

Nivek, whatever your system is I'm totally in agreement with it.

Believe it or not, I thought about mentioning Dion Waiters earlier. I didn't because I want to look a little closer at the contributions of SCOOP Jardine and Kris Joseph compared with that of Waiters to Syracuse's overall success. Of course Melo was the defensive anchor. How dominant was Waiters, objectively speaking? I haven't really studied Waiters. I do know that Ed Weiland likes Waiters. Makes me want to see why he does to be quite honest.

Ratliffe was a great JUCO player and he excelled this past year in games against Kansas and Baylor. (Crowder was a JUCO POY, BTW.) Ratliffe is an unusual player. He scores garbage points but is not a dominating rebounder or a prolific shot blocker. That said, he rebounded well some games and put up big point totals, too, on others. Cardo Ratliffe could have put up better offensive numbers on another team, but Mizzou had 5 or 6 guys who could put up 20 on a given night. I know he has dominated Perry Jones III and has held his own with Thomas Robinson--Ratliffe can play.

On the negative side, Nivek, Ratliffe was dominated by Norfolk State's big man, Kyle O'Quinn in the NCAAs. Going out with only 5 rebounds kind of characterized his season. Ratliffe is listed as a PF/C by DX but that cannot be what he plays in the NBA.

Nivek, I like Marcus Denmon a lot from Mizzou, and in a year Flip Pressey. I have my doubts about Kim English. Ratliffe might be a guy who can be a PF/SF tweener, but not a perimeter player at the next level. I think he's probably going to go undrafted and end up playing very well in Europe. He will need to defend better and also have more facets to his game to secure an NBA roster spot IMO.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Nivek, I agree with you on Tony Wroten, Jr. I fear some might be calling him Tony Rotten one day.

What do you think about Damian Lillard, and also Reggie Hamilton?

[Ruzious]

Honestly, I heard a little about him last season. I know he and not Ralph Sampson III was their promising big man. Other than that, Ruz, I didn't even follow his progress this season.

Got this off the wire, FYI:

http://www.twincities.com/ci_20239499/g ... ost_viewed

Big Ten Network analyst Tim Doyle said the Gophers are a "legit top-five or -six (Big Ten) team" next season if Mbakwe returns healthy. Mbakwe's absence, Doyle said, was a blessing for junior forward Rodney Williams and freshman point guard Andre Hollins, who have emerged lately.

Williams and Hollins are each averaging 20 points per game in the past five games for Minnesota (22-14), which has advanced to the National Invitation Tournament semifinals and will play Washington on Tuesday at New York's Madison Square Garden.

"I think it would be great for Trevor to be able to play another year - it would be great for Minnesota," ESPN college basketball analyst Jay Bilas said. "If they had him the whole year, I don't think there would have been any question they would have contended in the league and would have been an NCAA tournament team. They were almost there without him."

Seems the guy has had a lot to go through. Medical redshirt and possible 6th season. He's already 23 years old. Had one season off while facing an assault case that was resolved favorably. St Paul native who Tubby likes and wants back, only he's got no scholarship from the University of Minnesota.

Ruz, since Mbakwe has got to get healthy, anyway, IMO it would be best for him to come back and play and hope to gain some notoriety next season. Bernard James played at FSU this past season at 27 years old. He will get a pro contract, somewhere, for sure. So will Mbakwe, eventually.

He improves his future earning if he comes back, most likely. Also, he should have a lot of fun as a leader on a successful team. You can still wait to earn money when you're 23-24. Especially if waiting helps you in the long haul.

Good post - that's some wise advice for him. He might not even get drafted if he comes out now. Though he might wish he picked a warmer climated school.

With Ratliffe - amazing shooting percentage, but I gotta wonder why he didn't get more shot attempts. Say, he has a great jump-hook that works in college. If that's his only shot, teams will adjust to it, and he'll have nothing. See Brandan Wright - when he was at UNC.

I think Waiters could be a surprise. He's an explosive talent, has plenty of strength, plays with confidence. He's a boom or bust type - as he's not very refined. There's some Dwayne Wade in him - though he's got a long way to go and isn't quite that uber-athletic. He deferred a bit to the seniors CCJ mentioned - I would have liked to see how he would have done as their featured player.