Wizards vs Pacers

[JonathanJoseph]

I don't know about "get rid of", but I think it's time that we stop building the franchise around the obviously flawed premise that Wall is a franchise player. You can't solve a problem until you admit there is one.

I was in favor of packaging him with McGee for a blockbuster, but too late for that. I'd be willing to move him for a lottery pick in this deep draft.

Another lotto pick? Why, so we can pull the plug on that rookie early too? You're not at least willing to let him have a regular offseason with whomever the new coach will be or at least give him a 3rd season? Is the need for instant gratification that great?

Has nothing to do with pulling the plug early or instant gratification. It has to do with getting a lottery pick in a very deep draft.

[Dat2U]

+1

Coaching. Players who play to Wall's strengths and can spread the floor, as opposed to just furthering the lane-clog.

So we've now gone through 2 coaches, one of whom is known to be a PG guru. Wall has started alongside Arenas, Hinrich, Young, Crawford, Al Thornton, Yi, Rashard Lewis, Mo Evans, Blatche, Booker, Seraphin, Nene, McGee, Josh Howard, Singleton and Vesely now.

Somehow all of the players and both of the coaches, it's all of their faults that the results are always the same, not Walls. All of those players, save Nene and Seraphin, have played some of the worst basketball of their careers playing with Wall/Wizards.

At some point, you've gone through enough variables to figure out the common denominator.

Unintentional comedy is the best.

[Ed Wood]

What was tactfully left unsaid was that the "some of the worst basketball in their careers" in the case of Al Thornton and Yi that does not fall under the purview of Wall could broadly be described as the "rest" of their careers.

[jivelikenice]

I love all these budget/armchair GMs who want to trade everyone all the time and never commit to player development. That's one of the reasons why we'll always suck. That is all.

+1

[hands11]

Man google, first you keep track of all of the weird stuff I search for and now you don't even know about Oscar's Razor.

Yes, I knew what you meant hands, but I don't think "it's Wall's fault" is necessarily the most simple explanation in this case or that brevity is necessarily a sign of correctness when we're talking about so many moving parts.

There are lots of moving parts for sure.

I feel better now. Post game frustration. I don't take back the things I posted. I thought I was being fair and balanced in my comments.

I like to like the player on the team I root for. Wall hasnt won me over. I really like Booker, Nene, KS and a few others. I like Ves. Not in love with Crawford but I dont think he suck as much as some here do. Just something that hasn't won me over about Wall. I dont dislike him really except then he plays like he did tonight. It gets really frustrating. Frustrating like I was with McGee and Nick frustrating.

[JonathanJoseph]

I was in favor of packaging him with McGee for a blockbuster, but too late for that. I'd be willing to move him for a lottery pick in this deep draft.

I am not without concerns on the Wall front but this seems to be a case of familiarity breeding contempt, for all his flaws Wall is well ahead of the curve for even a high draft pick and I wouldn't be at all optimistic about finding comparable value in another pick.

You can't be serious. According to what metric? In terms of wins/losses Wall is one of the worst #1 overall picks in NBA history. I believe the average #1 overall pick improves their respective teams by an average of 9 or 10 games, because players of that caliber are supposed to be able to win some games on their own. The Wizards won LESS games in Wall's rookie season than the year before and the win % is going down this season. I understand that the supporting cast isn't great but we're talking about 2 of the 5 worst seasons in franchise history under Wall. If he was ahead of the curve, the Wizards would not be this horrendous. Yes, PG is the one position that can make a significant difference.

For a more subjective example of Wall's shortcomings, he actually made his coach FACEPALM.

[hands11]

Ahh JJ

Thanks for the laugh.

[Ed Wood]

The one which doesn't hold that win/loss record is an effective means of evaluating the play of a single player. This isn't being done "under Wall," Wall is a player on these teams. The reductionistic "just win baby" style evaluation of Wall is one of the reasons it's been suggested that you're trying to find evidence to fit a theory rather than the reverse, because it is a terrible way of judging an individual player.

[JonathanJoseph]

So we've now gone through 2 coaches, one of whom is known to be a PG guru. Wall has started alongside Arenas, Hinrich, Young, Crawford, Al Thornton, Yi, Rashard Lewis, Mo Evans, Blatche, Booker, Seraphin, Nene, McGee, Josh Howard, Singleton and Vesely now.

Somehow all of the players and both of the coaches, it's all of their faults that the results are always the same, not Walls. All of those players, save Nene and Seraphin, have played some of the worst basketball of their careers playing with Wall/Wizards.

At some point, you've gone through enough variables to figure out the common denominator.

This list cracks me up. You're presenting flawed evidence and undermining valid points.

Arenas and Howard had potentially career ending injuries (which they've never really come back from) before Wall arrived. Hinrich looked fine next to Wall, and his numbers weren't off. McGee and Young had their two best years playing next to Wall. Crawford's played better since coming from Atlanta. Yi, Thornton, and Evans, all played within the general decline of their careers before and after Wall. Booker, Seraphin, Singleton and Vesely have never played in the NBA except with Wall. So who does that leave? Oh yeah, Blatchemo and Lewis. I agree, those guys would be all-stars if it weren't for Wall.

I clearly worded this incorrectly but the point remains. The point is not that any of those players are all-stars, the point is that no matter who starts or who coaches a team with Wall as the PG and player who plays the most minutes and handles the ball the most....that team plays bad basketball and loses at a ridiculous clip.

We'd all agree that of all those players, Nene is the best player listed. And everyone would agree that when Nene was in the lineup, the Wizards were playing good basketball on both ends of the floor (the proof being a lot of double digit leads). Well the Nene/Wall era is 2-5, which is .28 win%, which is, you guessed it, in line with Wall and any other combination of the 15 players listed. It's about having enough data points to identify a clear trend and common denominator.

Yes improving the roster and supporting cast will improve the win %, but the point, and the common denominator, is that John Wall plays losing basketball. Saying that Wall should have been able to get any of those combinations of players to a .30 win% or better isn't setting the bar very high.

[dangermouse]

You can't be serious. According to what metric? In terms of wins/losses Wall is one of the worst #1 overall picks in NBA history. I believe the average #1 overall pick improves their respective teams by an average of 9 or 10 games, because players of that caliber are supposed to be able to win some games on their own. The Wizards won LESS games in Wall's rookie season than the year before and the win % is going down this season. I understand that the supporting cast isn't great but we're talking about 2 of the 5 worst seasons in franchise history under Wall. If he was ahead of the curve, the Wizards would not be this horrendous. Yes, PG is the one position that can make a significant difference.

For a more subjective example of Wall's shortcomings, he actually made his coach FACEPALM.

Kevin Durant. OK, he was a number 2 pick, but thats close enough for me considering he COULD have gone #1. It was a 2 man draft.

KD didnt help OKC's win column until his 3rd/4th season.

Edit: and that was with a better supporting cast than Wall has right now from about his 2nd/3rd season onwards.

We need another stud, or at least borderline. its as simple as that. Nene is a good start but injured.

[JonathanJoseph]

The one which doesn't hold that win/loss record is an effective means of evaluating the play of a single player. This isn't being done "under Wall," Wall is a player on these teams. The reductionistic "just win baby" style evaluation of Wall is one of the reasons it's been suggested that you're trying to find evidence to fit a theory rather than the reverse, because it is a terrible way of judging an individual player.

No, Wall is not "a player". No one rolled out a red carpet for Trevor Booker or Chris Singleton. Wall is the captain, plays the most minutes by a monumental margin and handles the ball more than anyone else by a similarly monumental margin.

At no point did I suggest that Wall alone should be able to transform an entire roster into a playoff team, but he should be able to make them bette and win more than the current number of games.

Yes, PGs do make that kind of impact. The Twolves are 18-13 with Rubio in the starting lineup and 7-18 without. The Cavs are wining a significant amount more with Kyrie Irving than they won last year with the same roster. And YES a team that starts Alonzo Gee.

Stop making Wall out to be a victim. Yes the roster stinks as currently constructed but Wall is ALSO a problem.

[JonathanJoseph]

What was tactfully left unsaid was that the "some of the worst basketball in their careers" in the case of Al Thornton and Yi that does not fall under the purview of Wall could broadly be described as the "rest" of their careers.

An excellent illustration of my point.

Even that sad 08-09 Clippers team that featured Al Thornton as their second leading scorer won 30% of their games.

If Wall was anywhere near "ahead of the curve" as you suggest Wall would easily be able to make a team win at the equivalent clip of the 08-09 Clippers by himself.

[jivelikenice]

My argument is that Wall was on an upswing and was trending positively before the deal. After the deal Crawford become a focal point of the offense and this has coincided with John's slump. His style of play does not work with John or any top point guard IMO.

Since the deal Jordan Crawford has taken 214 shots and is averaging 16.5 shots per game.

1. Steve Nash- No 2 guard on the roster shoots more than 9.9 x per game
2. Rajon Rondo- Ray Allen plays w/o the ball but even than only shoots 10 x per game
3. Chris Paul- Billups was their most effective 2 guard and he shot 11 x per game
4. Calderon- Derozan shoots 14 x per game
5. Deron WIlliams- Marshown Brooks shoots 10 x per game
6. Rickey Rubio- No player outside of Love shoots more than 10.4 x per game
7. Tony Parker- Parker averages 15.7 shots per game. No other player outside of Duncan is in double figures
8. Derrick Rose- No Shooting guard shoots more than 10.8 x per game (Rip in ltd action)
9. Kyrie irving- No player outside of Jamison shoots even 9 x per game

None of the point guards mentioned above have played with a volume two guard like Crawford. Hell, Nick Young wasn't as ball dominant as Crawford but even he took 14.8 shots per game while he was here (That figure also is more than any 2 guard that plays with these pgs)

JJ, you say we should recognize that Wall isn't a franchise guy and plan accordingly. I say forget rolling out the red carpets and marketing Wall as though you're building around him and actually do it with your basketball decisions! Put a team around him that can play to his strengths, implement a system he can succeed in, and get a good coaching staff in place that can bring out the best in him....Then we can figure out if he has the potential to be a franchise guy or not. What we're doing w/ Wall would be like throwing RG3 out there with no receivers, changing coaches, and a poor o-line and then calling him a bust in yr 2.

[jivelikenice]

What was tactfully left unsaid was that the "some of the worst basketball in their careers" in the case of Al Thornton and Yi that does not fall under the purview of Wall could broadly be described as the "rest" of their careers.

An excellent illustration of my point.

Even that sad 08-09 Clippers team that featured Al Thornton as their second leading scorer won 30% of their games.

If Wall was anywhere near "ahead of the curve" as you suggest Wall would easily be able to make a team win at the equivalent clip of the 08-09 Clippers by himself.

The 2008-2009 Clipps had Zach Randolph for 39 games, Eric Gordon for 78 games, Baron Davis for 65 games, Chris Kaman for 31 games, and Marcus Camby for 62 games....The talent differential isn't even close. You keep proving my point

[JonathanJoseph]

Kevin Durant. OK, he was a number 2 pick, but thats close enough for me considering he COULD have gone #1. It was a 2 man draft.

KD didnt help OKC's win column until his 3rd/4th season.

Edit: and that was with a better supporting cast than Wall has right now from about his 2nd/3rd season onwards.

We need another stud, or at least borderline. its as simple as that. Nene is a good start but injured.

In the past eight years, teams that had the No. 1 pick improved their record by an average of 12.9 games. The only team that didn't improve, in fact, was Washington this season. The Wizards finished with three more losses than last season's 26-56 record in the season immediately following when they selected point guard John Wall.

Still, the Wizards carry the unhappy distinction of being the first team in nine years to not improve after garnering the top pick. The greatest jump was Toronto's 20-game improvement after the Raptors drafted Andrea Bargnani in 2006; they were 47-35 the next season. The next greatest improvement was the Cavaliers' leap to 35-47 in 2004 after selecting LeBron James at No. 1 in 2003, a jump that was 18 victories better than the 17-win season in 2003.

http://www.cleveland.com/cavs/index.ssf/2011/04/no_1_draft_pick_is_almost_a_su.html

To update the data, the Cavs are on pace to improve 11.5 games with Kyrie Irving over last season, so the average seems to be holding.

Sure there are always exceptions, and Durant is worth noting. The Thunder started 1-12 in Durant's 2nd season and were winning at a much better clip by the end of that season on their way to 50 wins the following season. So the improvement was not noticable until the middle of his second season, but his supporting cast was no better during his 1st and 2nd years. In fact, the Wizards are starting all youngsters based on that model.

Yes, we need another stud and that's the plan with the upcoming draft pick. HOWEVER, that does NOT excuse being on track for the worst season in franchise history.

If Wall is who you think he is we would not be staring at that possibility.

Another point of reference, in 09-10 after trading away Jamison, Butler and Haywood and running the team through ANDRAY BLATCHE for the rest of the season, the Wizards went 9-23 including the the infamous 16 game losing streak ("don't ever think it can't get worse, because it can") which is a .28 win %.

The Wiz are <.28% win with Wall as a starting PG.

[JonathanJoseph]

My argument is that Wall was on an upswing and was trending positively before the deal. After the deal Crawford become a focal point of the offense and this has coincided with John's slump. His style of play does not work with John or any top point guard IMO.

Since the deal Jordan Crawford has taken 214 shots and is averaging 16.5 shots per game.

1. Steve Nash- No 2 guard on the roster shoots more than 9.9 x per game
2. Rajon Rondo- Ray Allen plays w/o the ball but even than only shoots 10 x per game
3. Chris Paul- Billups was their most effective 2 guard and he shot 11 x per game
4. Calderon- Derozan shoots 14 x per game
5. Deron WIlliams- Marshown Brooks shoots 10 x per game
6. Rickey Rubio- No player outside of Love shoots more than 10.4 x per game
7. Tony Parker- Parker averages 15.7 shots per game. No other player outside of Duncan is in double figures
8. Derrick Rose- No Shooting guard shoots more than 10.8 x per game (Rip in ltd action)
9. Kyrie irving- No player outside of Jamison shoots even 9 x per game

None of the point guards mentioned above have played with a volume two guard like Crawford. Hell, Nick Young wasn't as ball dominant as Crawford but even he took 14.8 shots per game while he was here (That figure also is more than any 2 guard that plays with these pgs)

JJ, you say we should recognize that Wall isn't a franchise guy and plan accordingly. I say forget rolling out the red carpets and marketing Wall as though you're building around him and actually do it with your basketball decisions! Put a team around him that can play to his strengths, implement a system he can succeed in, and get a good coaching staff in place that can bring out the best in him....Then we can figure out if he has the potential to be a franchise guy or not. What we're doing w/ Wall would be like throwing RG3 out there with no receivers, changing coaches, and a poor o-line and then calling him a bust in yr 2.

No it's nothing like that.

[montestewart]

The one which doesn't hold that win/loss record is an effective means of evaluating the play of a single player. This isn't being done "under Wall," Wall is a player on these teams. The reductionistic "just win baby" style evaluation of Wall is one of the reasons it's been suggested that you're trying to find evidence to fit a theory rather than the reverse, because it is a terrible way of judging an individual player.

That's well put. I don't think Wall's ahead of the curve, but I don't know exactly what his curve should be. His circumstances are unique in many ways, but I wonder what's behind both his ongoing woes and his current funk, and the explanation that he simply sucks or he's not a winner doesn't really answer anything. Do his teammates and coach at Kentucky think that? I doubt it. The scatter shot support for his simply being no good fits with your "evidence to fit a theory rather than the reverse" statement.

Wall didn't improve the Wizards' record as a rookie, but neither did Blake Griffin improve the Clippers. As pointed out, Durant's team's sucked for a few years. Wall's stats and trajectory are somewhat comparable to Isiah Thomas, Jason Kidd, Russell Westbrook, and others. It took Nash a number of years to put it all together. No one (not me for sure) could see that Kevin Garnett and Kobe Bryant would be HOFers in their first three years. There are plenty of stats and plenty of examples that indicate it's too early to tell how good Wall will be in the long run, and the team has many options before giving up (like, uh, trying to field a good team). If a trade comes along that actually improves the team, fine, but no panic, cut bait, speculative moves. Way too soon.

[jivelikenice]

My argument is that Wall was on an upswing and was trending positively before the deal. After the deal Crawford become a focal point of the offense and this has coincided with John's slump. His style of play does not work with John or any top point guard IMO.

Since the deal Jordan Crawford has taken 214 shots and is averaging 16.5 shots per game.

1. Steve Nash- No 2 guard on the roster shoots more than 9.9 x per game
2. Rajon Rondo- Ray Allen plays w/o the ball but even than only shoots 10 x per game
3. Chris Paul- Billups was their most effective 2 guard and he shot 11 x per game
4. Calderon- Derozan shoots 14 x per game
5. Deron WIlliams- Marshown Brooks shoots 10 x per game
6. Rickey Rubio- No player outside of Love shoots more than 10.4 x per game
7. Tony Parker- Parker averages 15.7 shots per game. No other player outside of Duncan is in double figures
8. Derrick Rose- No Shooting guard shoots more than 10.8 x per game (Rip in ltd action)
9. Kyrie irving- No player outside of Jamison shoots even 9 x per game

None of the point guards mentioned above have played with a volume two guard like Crawford. Hell, Nick Young wasn't as ball dominant as Crawford but even he took 14.8 shots per game while he was here (That figure also is more than any 2 guard that plays with these pgs)

JJ, you say we should recognize that Wall isn't a franchise guy and plan accordingly. I say forget rolling out the red carpets and marketing Wall as though you're building around him and actually do it with your basketball decisions! Put a team around him that can play to his strengths, implement a system he can succeed in, and get a good coaching staff in place that can bring out the best in him....Then we can figure out if he has the potential to be a franchise guy or not. What we're doing w/ Wall would be like throwing RG3 out there with no receivers, changing coaches, and a poor o-line and then calling him a bust in yr 2.

No it's nothing like that.

Well if you say so....

JJ, you gave a list of players who have gone on to do nothing with other teams or are out of the league

No top 10 pg is surrounded by volume two guards like John and not coincidentally his slump began when Crawford became more of a focal point of the offense.

We have no shooters and he needs to be in a system where they can space the floor.

Nevermind...can't make the same argument over and over again if all you're going to say is "no, its nothing like that". I've also made my point and fortunately you don't run the team. I'm pretty confident Ted will invest in building around Wall and our upcoming lotto pick and we can patiently see how this plays out.

[Dat2U]

He was 1-4 from the field, had no free throws, 3 assists, 2 turnovers and 3 fouls in 12 minutes.

Those numbers do not tell the story. dlts20 is correct. Arenas should have had 6 or 7 assists in 12 minutes and it could have been more than that. It was clear he was still not sure how/when to pick his spots and he doesn't have his rhythm, but when he gets comfortable he'll be an impact player again. He was carving up Portland's defense.

Just as the PRP therapy has been a fountain of youth for Kobe, Arenas looked more spry than at any point since Gerald Wallace happened. I'm not ready to proclaim anything for sure after 12 minutes, but it appears that the Gilbert Arenas 2.0 era has now started and Arenas will be more of a pure PG. I won't be surprised to see Arenas playing efficient, all-star caliber basketball very soon. He will be a big story come playoff time and will play heavy minutes. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Arenas averaging about 20 pts and 10 assists next year when he's somebody's starting PG.

I have seen enough to know that what happened in Orlando has no bearing on what to expect from Arenas going forward. Everyone who assumed Arenas was finished is going to be proven wrong.

Funny, it's so black and white for you when it comes to Wall. But when it comes to Arenas, I guess there are many different shades of gray.

It was so distasteful how the Wizards did Arenas in the end, wasn't it? Got rid of him like yesterday's garbage only to proclaim John Wall as some savior when drafted, handing him a throne that he didn't even deserve. And Wall's smug demeanor doesn't make it any easier for you, does it? He's nothing like personable Arenas.

But seriously, just let it go bro. Let it go.

[jivelikenice]

Those numbers do not tell the story. dlts20 is correct. Arenas should have had 6 or 7 assists in 12 minutes and it could have been more than that. It was clear he was still not sure how/when to pick his spots and he doesn't have his rhythm, but when he gets comfortable he'll be an impact player again. He was carving up Portland's defense.

Just as the PRP therapy has been a fountain of youth for Kobe, Arenas looked more spry than at any point since Gerald Wallace happened. I'm not ready to proclaim anything for sure after 12 minutes, but it appears that the Gilbert Arenas 2.0 era has now started and Arenas will be more of a pure PG. I won't be surprised to see Arenas playing efficient, all-star caliber basketball very soon. He will be a big story come playoff time and will play heavy minutes. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Arenas averaging about 20 pts and 10 assists next year when he's somebody's starting PG.

I have seen enough to know that what happened in Orlando has no bearing on what to expect from Arenas going forward. Everyone who assumed Arenas was finished is going to be proven wrong.

Funny, it's so black and white for you when it comes to Wall. But when it comes to Arenas, I guess there are many different shades of gray.

It was so distasteful how the Wizards did Arenas in the end, wasn't it? Got rid of him like yesterday's garbage only to proclaim John Wall as some savior when drafted, handing him a throne that he didn't even deserve. And Wall's smug demeanor doesn't make it any easier for you, does it? He's nothing like personable Arenas.

But seriously, just let it go bro. Let it go.

Arenas had 0 assists in 12 minutes tonight. A 20/10 guy? WOW. you know you're talking about a guy who never averaged more than 6.3 assists per game in a full season? Agent Zero is gone...That player will never come back. It was great while it lasted but its over. He looks ok but he's nothing close to the athlete he was in D.C. If you've forgotten go watch some youtube clips.

I guess this explains your expectations of Wall and the Kyrie obsession on the board. You all just want a score first point guard who might win you more games in the short-term but won't lead to long-term success. Which score first point guard ever lead a team to the title as the focal point?

I had to edit because I can't get over the fact you think Arenas will be a 20/10 guy and will even play heavy minutes in the playoffs for that matter.