How many games will the Blue Jays win this season?

Post #1 » by **LittleOzzy** » Thu Apr 5, 2012 6:55 pm

baulderdash77 · Post #2 » by **baulderdash77** » Thu Apr 5, 2012 7:12 pm

I think it's 88-89. We're going to be in the hunt.

stopnpop · Post #3 » by **stopnpop** » Thu Apr 5, 2012 7:26 pm

93-69, Jays making it to the ALCS!!!

Randle McMurphy · Post #4 » by **Randle McMurphy** » Thu Apr 5, 2012 7:37 pm

81. The division is far too tough and the Jays have too many pitching question marks to expect much more than that.

Wo1verine · Post #5 » by **Wo1verine** » Thu Apr 5, 2012 8:00 pm

Randle McMurphy wrote:81. The division is far too tough and the Jays have too many pitching question marks to expect much more than that.

That sounds about right! SP is going to kill us!

Lateral Quicks · Post #6 » by **Lateral Quicks** » Thu Apr 5, 2012 8:16 pm

Well, before the first 3 innings of today's game, I was going to say 86-90. But now, I figure we'll be lucky to win 50. But I chose 85-89 just for kicks.

Raps in 4 · Post #7 » by **Raps in 4** » Thu Apr 5, 2012 8:41 pm

Hoping: 90+
Realistic: 80-85

JoeyBats · Post #8 » by **JoeyBats** » Fri Apr 6, 2012 12:30 am

I can honestly see this team get 90-93 wins this season.

Brinbe · Post #9 » by **Brinbe** » Fri Apr 6, 2012 12:34 am

80-85

K1NG · Post #10 » by **K1NG** » Fri Apr 6, 2012 12:43 am

RapsFanInVA · Post #11 » by **RapsFanInVA** » Fri Apr 6, 2012 12:49 am

Need 82 to win some money. Realistically expect 85.

Post #12 » by **Schad** » Fri Apr 6, 2012 1:27 am

Going to be optimistic and say 85 or 86.

Sifu · Post #13 » by **Sifu** » Fri Apr 6, 2012 1:28 am

88 games

s e n s i · Post #14 » by **s e n s i** » Fri Apr 6, 2012 1:29 am

87-92

Nocturne · Post #15 » by **Nocturne** » Fri Apr 6, 2012 2:12 am

I would be surprised to see them get more than 85 wins. We have so many question marks in our starting rotation. The only one who's proven himself is Romero. I like Morrow but I'm not confident about his consistency until I see it this season. Alvarez I like but again, he could have a bad sophomore year like Morrow did last year. It's possible that everyone reaches their potential this year but I would consider that to be a surprise rather than it being expected.

sule · Post #16 » by **sule** » Fri Apr 6, 2012 4:59 am

89 games +/- 2

Parataxis · Post #17 » by **Parataxis** » Fri Apr 6, 2012 5:04 am

88 or 89. We'll squeak into the second wildcard.

Especially now with the injuries to the BoSox, I'm liking our chances.

SharoneWright · Post #18 » by **SharoneWright** » Fri Apr 6, 2012 6:45 am

92.

0.567901234568

Dr Positivity · Post #19 » by **Dr Positivity** » Sat Apr 7, 2012 12:10 am

flatjacket1 · Post #20 » by **flatjacket1** » Sat Apr 7, 2012 1:13 am

http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2012/4/5/ ... on-players

Great read by an excellent poster over at BBB.

He predicts Lawrie to have around 4.7 WAR and still statistically we are a 81-83 win team (compared to last season's 79 "true talent" wins). Still an improvement but sorry to burst people's bubbles.

Here is what he posts in the comments section:

Ironically, I hadn’t really got around to really analyzing the results. My first thought is, let’s look at last year. 2430 total wins (one game wasn't played, so actually 2429 but anyway), replacement level of 44 wins means 1110 team wins above replacement. Actual total fWAR = 1164, so each WAR is worth 0.953 wins. Jays had 20.4+12.5 = 32.9 fWAR. So that should be around 31 wins above replacement or 31+44=75 wins total. So the Jays punched above their heads somewhat, and really, just to get to 81 wins these year they should need another 6 WAR above last year. Your total doesnt include bench guys, so that probably bumps it a little. Pitching is a still a weakness (I was thinking about doing the same exercise for pitching as well). So I think I’m sticking with 81-83.

81 wins implies 38.8 fWAR needed. That sounds about right. I’m not seeing a reason to go higher at this point