How many games will the Blue Jays win this season?

[WpgPage]

My guess is 85 wins I see AA adding a SP at some point this summer as well so that should add 1-2 wins. Drabek looking strong RR and Morrow looking at least decent I think 85 is a realistic goal.

[Deron2]

77-85. Saw it 30 clubs in 30 days, and I kinda feel like we will take a step back.

[James_Raptors]

85-86 range but starting pitching will prevent us from taking the next step and that new playoff spot.

[flatjacket1]

85-86 range but starting pitching will prevent us from taking the next step and that new playoff spot.

Nice to see you back!

I think 85-86 is the high end of what can happen if a few balls bounce our way. I guessed 85 before the season but after reading some stuff, I'm thinking 81-83.

[guvernator]

"With a safety factor of 2, this beam is designed for 450 GPa compression axial loading, 200 GPa tension axial loading and 85 GPa bending loading."

What a bunch of hosers as if you are appearing for an exam.
95 wins and playoffs for the first time in 19 years. Woohooo!!

[NeverGoingToWin]

We were all way off. I always like looking back at threads like this.

I want to bump more threads but I know mods get mad. I think this one is of interest though.

viewtopic.php?f=123&t=1170176

[satyr9]

I just voted and let me say boy was I smart.

[Randle McMurphy]

Re-reading this, I can see why people are so crushed about this season. They expected a lot from this team (perhaps wrongly). The Jays are going to find it very hard to bounce back from this one with the fans, I think, unless they commit themselves to winning this offseason with significant money spent.

If they stayed reasonably healthy, I still think they would have reached my 81 win prediction. I don't think they were talent wise any better than that, though, not with the poor rotation that they went into the year with.

[satyr9]

I still think this year's team had reasonable 86-90 win potential. They didn't get 1 full season out of a starting pitcher. Yes, Romero and Alvarez went the distance, but both had such bad runs in parts that on almost any other team they would've been sent somewhere to work things out. Alvarez for certain, Romero would always be a tougher call for any team, but IMO if they weren't working on their 9th-12th guys after trades, I think Romero would've had a re-hab or conditioning or something assignment somewhere to try and crack his funk.

Throw in the overwhelming number of average to slightly above average MLB hitters on the team who put up below average numbers this season and I have no problem saying the likely upside to this year's roster was more than a .500 team. Basically, Encarnacion and Janssen (and CV until his recent swoon) were the only guys playing above any kind of reasonable expectation (and Loup if you even thought of him at the start) and almost everyone else played close to or below their bottom end. You're supposed to have, in any normal year, some balance. A few guys overperform, a few guys underperform, you have some injuries, and some guys just do their norm. This year it was nowhere near balanced and what hurt most was the glimpses of fantastic you get from the underperformers. Lawrie, Rasmus, Escobar, Johnson. All those guys can hit and some hit very well, but they were all massively slumpy for huge parts of the season.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think 81 is any kind of lowball, but I don't think the mid to high 80's predictions were overly optimistic either. Basically, I'd say reasonable pessimists around 78-82 and reasonable optimists around 86-90 based on the roster into training camp. So maybe I'm a little liberal with the brush, but I still don't see anything about OAK or BAL overall that makes me think they're clear-cut no doubt better teams. They both no question had better years, but that's not the same thing.

It was a brutal year for the Jays though, that cannot be questioned or debated.

[baulderdash77]

I think at the beginning of the season we certainly had on paper a better team than say Baltimore; however injuries hurt and we seemed to have an inordinate amount of players hitting low points in their careers.

We had an incredibly connected and upbeat fanbase early on that's largely no longer engaged with the team. I think it'll be very difficult for AA to get that upward momentum going again.

I wouldn't be surprised if we changed out the team management & all the coaches to start and the team also has to increase payroll by 15-20 million for next year as well to get that feeling back.

[dagger]

The disconnect began with Yu Darvish, but spring training was such a positive experience, it raised expectations across the board. Now it's going to be tough. I look at 2013 with some expectation of an improved W/L record, but can't yet see how the many holes are going to be filled. 1st base (if Edwin mainly DH's), 2nd base, SS with the Escobar fiasco, CF with Rasmus giving up a six weeks and not much more... The starting rotation is a mess - who would have thought Ricky Romero would throw like a minor leaguer, and a bad Las Vegas minor leaguer at that. The most settled area is probably the bullpen, with our without Darren Oliver.

AA has some serious thinking to do, IMO. Assuming he has a modest payroll increase to say $85 million, and manages to offload Lind for some salary relief (even if we eat some of his deal), and KJ and Oliver go, AA still faces the issue of whether to go for it hard in 2013 (spending on veteran starters, be it by free agency or trade) or hold off and let the kids in the lower minors work their way up. And he has to decide which if any of his current rookies - Gose, Hech, Sierra, Loup - he pencils in to next season's roster. If he goes with Hech in the infield and Gose in LF, he might have some additional money to use targeting pitching, but the Hech and Gose still face learning curves.

[Chevy Chase]

Dagger,

I dont think any of us could have envisioned this much regression in one season. This was an epic fail. I cant find a single bright spot beyond EE. Am i supposed to be excited about CVs good season now that he's a free agent?

The excitement of Snider or Thames potential is gone.

Even the myth of AA's invincibility in winning trades has run its course. I,ve got nothing to believe in.

And when they dont spend this year as AA determines he's too far away to contend next year and boston uses its newly freed up salarybuy up the good free agents, I won't be able to trust the management who promised to commit more salary if we as fans commited to more attendance as we Did, even on an obviously sinking team.

I still carry the scar of almost buying season tickets again thinking we might grab Darvish and Fielder. I still feel Ricky would have felt less pressure with another quality arm in the rotation. Aand Bautista wouldn't have felt as pressured to swing at all that junk with a real all-star hitting talent to protect him. Gose would have had the full season in AAA and Snider would have been under a smaller spotlight. I'll pack those warm feelings of what could have been away in that small shelf in my subconcious with the T-Mack resigning and Hakeem staying healthy.

[satyr9]

A took a quick look last night and I'm really kind of blown away by how universally off this team was all across the board. 150-200 runs is a simply enormous number (what separates this year's performance from a playoff team), but if you'd been pretty realistic with career averages and even a moderately serious number of injuries you could give this group +100-125 as a pre-season projection without even breaking a sweat (guys like Rasmus make it a little murky 'cause the swing on what to expect for him was pretty massive).

For instance, people could hate on the lack of additions to the staff before the season all they like, but I doubt anyone thought the guys assembled at the beginning of the year throughout the system would account for 4 WAR over 156 games (no Happ included). It's so bad that 2011 JoJo would've been better than everyone not named Morrow, Happ, or Hutchison (pretty much dead even with CV as a starter). That means for a large chunk of the season, 2011 Reyes could've been the best starter in the Jays rotation this year. That's **** terrifying.

[Ado05]

77-85. Saw it 30 clubs in 30 days, and I kinda feel like we will take a step back.

Reading through these and found this. This 30 clubs in 30 days show must really know something that no one else does