2012 NBA Draft - Part II

[dobrojim]

didn't Crowder shoot a respectable 3 pt %

to answer my own question which I was initially too lazy to do

Yes. He shot 34.5%

[Nivek]

Crowder is going to add toughness, defense, rebounding and 3pt shooting wherever he goes. I'd prefer that it be with Washington. Jones should be a nice NBA player for someone -- I think Crowder will be better. Plus, he fits a team need (namely the gaping chasm at SF). If the Wizards end up with Beal in the lottery, AND they could get Crowder in the 2nd, I think they'd be crazy not to take him. He'd likely be a day one starter for them at SF. Jones is a good player, but he'll be in a dogfight for playing time, even in Washington.

[DCZards]

Crowder is going to add toughness, defense, rebounding and 3pt shooting wherever he goes. I'd prefer that it be with Washington. Jones should be a nice NBA player for someone -- I think Crowder will be better. Plus, he fits a team need (namely the gaping chasm at SF). If the Wizards end up with Beal in the lottery, AND they could get Crowder in the 2nd, I think they'd be crazy not to take him. He'd likely be a day one starter for them at SF. Jones is a good player, but he'll be in a dogfight for playing time, even in Washington.

Agree with all you say about Crowder, especially the toughness and D. Things that the Zards could use. But the Zards also need perimeter scoring out of the SF position and, at least from what I can recall, Crowder's mid-range game (not three-pointers) was suspect. I could be totally wrong about that.

Nivek, do you have stats on how Crowder shot from says 15-18 ft., compared to maybe a Hollis Thompson...or even Kevin Jones.

[dobrojim]

earlier in this thread Kev posted some impressive offEff stats for Crowder

they were pretty much off the charts. His DefEff is rather good too.

When I saw those numbers and him being from Marquette I couldn't help
but wonder why he was looked at as a 2nd rnd pick

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Most underrated top 5: Reggie Hamilton, Jae Crowder, Will Barton, Draymond Green, Doug McDermott. (Andrew Nicholson could go here, too)

Sixth man underrated: Tim Frazier

Best unknown: Eric Griffen

You left off Marcus Denmon, who's better than all of those guys except Crowder.

Yes, I did. Denmon really got hurt by Mizzou's early NCAA exit.

With all the players declaring for the draft, at his height and with him being a combo guard, Denmon IMO has a good shot at going undrafted. Nivek, you are absolutely right that he's probably better than the guys above unless Barton's ball handling and agility translate to the NBA SG position well.

Denmon shoots like Lillard and Jenkins, and he's also athletic like Lillard. I think Hamilton belongs in the same convo as a pure shooter, too.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Nivek, I think I can hit 3-10 blinfolded. I can hit 3-10 one-handed, with my weak hand for sure. I practice shooting them one-handed with both hands.

Andre Drummond might be shooting with his eyes closed. Or, perhaps dude is legally blind. Otherwise, .295 FT is pretty hard to do. Confidence has to be very problematic for him. I'm sure he's got gigantic hands, and that doesn't help. Still, muscle memory should lock in at some point with practice and I would expect him to at least hit near .500.

Just got through shooting around. Otherwise, I would do some "Andre Drummond" drill, eyes closed FTs and see how I shoot.

[dobrojim]

seems like Denmon should be ranked right along or no worse than with DLamb and Jenkins
although Lamb is much younger than either of the other 2.

[Nivek]

Crowder is going to add toughness, defense, rebounding and 3pt shooting wherever he goes. I'd prefer that it be with Washington. Jones should be a nice NBA player for someone -- I think Crowder will be better. Plus, he fits a team need (namely the gaping chasm at SF). If the Wizards end up with Beal in the lottery, AND they could get Crowder in the 2nd, I think they'd be crazy not to take him. He'd likely be a day one starter for them at SF. Jones is a good player, but he'll be in a dogfight for playing time, even in Washington.

Agree with all you say about Crowder, especially the toughness and D. Things that the Zards could use. But the Zards also need perimeter scoring out of the SF position and, at least from what I can recall, Crowder's mid-range game (not three-pointers) was suspect. I could be totally wrong about that.

Nivek, do you have stats on how Crowder shot from says 15-18 ft., compared to maybe a Hollis Thompson...or even Kevin Jones.

I'm trying to find info on shooting by distance. Generally, if a guy can shoot the 3, he can also hit mid-range stuff. In Crowder's case, I suspect he'd be fine from mid-range considering his good 3pt percentage and his excellent 2pt percentage (over 60%). A lot of that surely came from around the basket, so it's hard to say for sure.

Other SFs who shot the 3 with similar accuracy/frequency include Tayshaun Prince, Artest, Chandler Parsons, Mike Miller, and Josh Howard. Kevin Durant and Wesley Johnson shot the 3 with similar frequency, but more accuracy. On the other hand, similar accuracy/frequency from 3pt range includes: Jarvis Hayes, Chris Singleton, Kyle Singler and Adam Morrison. However each of those guys rated well below Crowder overall in my system.

For what it's worth, I have Hollis Thompson rated outside the 2nd round. He has good size and he can shoot the 3, but there's not much else to his game right now. I think he should go back to school for his senior year.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Wes Johnson is a guy I truly missed on. I thought he would be a much, much better pro.

[Nivek]

Nivek, how does your evaluation system rate Russell Westbrook as a prospect. He was largely taken as an athlete rather than because he was productive, and that has turned out okay. What about Paul George?

Westbrook would have rated as a top 10 pick most years in my "system." In this year's draft, his "score" would have put him in the same grouping as Sullinger, Zeller and Beal. Players from previous years with a similar final rating include: Evan Turner, Wesley Johnson, Zach Randolph, Luol Deng, Chris Wilcox, Andrew Bogut and Kawhi Leonard.

You also asked about Paul George. My stuff had George rated as a late 1st. As a pro this season, I have him rated a bit above average. In my PER-like stat, he's at 116 (100 = average).

[Dat2U]

On MKG and Beal, for some reason today I'm thinking offers might be the way to go with both. Shooting for MKG makes him project as a guy who will take 2-3 years. Size and defense, as well as refined game make Beal also be a guy who is going to take 2-3 years before he's an impact starter. Five years from now, both should be excellent NBA players. Robinson is ready but he will not be a star. He's a blue collar rebounder. I think Kevin Jones could be as good a player because he will step back and shoot the midrange. I would just as soon go with finished products who fill a need and who are ready. Booker fit the mold. So do Crowder, Barton, Zeller, and Jones.

I don't quite understand the logic of not willing to be patient. Adding guys like Booker are fine, but a roster of Booker's will get you in the lottery every year if there's no legit star talent to go with it. We can project about how ready guys like Zeller & Crowder are ready to step in and contribute right now but the in many cases the guys were talking about are fringe starters or good backups (like DeJuan Blair).

We still need elite talent even more than we need a good bench. If we have to wait a few years for that elite talent to develop, then fine. The wait will be worth it. Many times the most polished rookie does not turn out to be the best draft pick. The goal isn't to find the most ready NBA player, its to find the best one. I think that's one distinction that some are missing here.

[Ruzious]

Wes Johnson is a guy I truly missed on. I thought he would be a much, much better pro.

I think we missed on him, because we didn't key in on his age - he turned 23 right after he was drafted. And he never was impressive before his last year of college.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Washington is not that far off being competitive Dat, post Nene. What I would do is try to get in terms of elite talent are FAs, Ray Allen and Nick Batum.

I would draft guys who can step in a play right way. Tyler Zeller, Jae Crowder, Will Barton, Kevin Jones, Marcus Denmon are mentally ready. They each fill a need for the Wizards. My philosophy on the draft is evolving, Dat. Diaper dandy freshman project to be great based on physical talent. Few are finished products. I think, however, there is much to like about player who stay 2, 3, or even 4 years of college and get better.

I like how Iman Shumpert, Marshon Brooks, and Isaiah Thomas are playing as NBA players. They stayed a while in college and got better. So did Charles Jenkins and Klay Thompson.

In this draft, I am really impressed with the progress Kevin Jones and Jae Crowder made in the NCAAs. Marshon Brooks was a late bloomer. I also like Drew Gordon. He plays a man's game. Royce White obviously is NBA-ready, but I don't like the anxiety issue with him. This guys can play just as well if not better than Beal or MKG, IMO.

Will Barton improved tremendously over the past season. I like his background of winning. I think he's going to step in and surprise the heck out of people.

I believe rebounding and shooting are talents, Dat. Beal and MKG are certainly talented. However, how much more talented are they than the guys I have mentioned?

One young guy I was totally wrong about is Dwight Howard. I liked Okafor. So, I could be wrong in my approach. If MKG and Beal are that much better in a couple years, I will admit I am wrong. For now, however, I like the guys I mentioned and think they are immensely talented players.

[Nivek]

Somebody needs to persuade me on Royce White. In my system, he has a rating that falls well outside that of a 2nd round pick. I like the assists and rebounds, but he was extremely inefficient -- subpar shooting efficiency and way high turnovers.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Nivek, I'm not at all on board with White as a first rounder because of intangibles.

In White's case, I can't see him being better than Draymond Green.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pla ... een-1.html
http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/player ... mond-green

Green rebounds and defends very well. He is a good passer. He registered a triple double in the NCAAs. Dwyane Wade and Marquis Daniels are the only other guys I recall doing so. You have to respect the level of competition Draymond Green faced. If Jon Leuer and JaJuan Johnson can make the NBA, so can Green.

Comparatively speaking, White finishes better than Green and his passing is off the charts great for a big man. However, his FT shooting is a serious red flag. Quirky guy with more than just anxiety issues, he's been arrested. Whereas Green is solid as a rock and a team leader for Tom Izzo, a HOF coach.

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/player ... oyce-white
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pla ... ite-1.html

Nivek, I know he's one of doclinkin's favorites, but I'm not down with Royce White becoming a good NBA player.

I would pick Draymond Green over him without hesitation.

[Dat2U]

Washington is not that far off being competitive Dat, post Nene. What I would do is try to get in terms of elite talent are FAs, Ray Allen and Nick Batum.

I would draft guys who can step in a play right way. Tyler Zeller, Jae Crowder, Will Barton, Kevin Jones, Marcus Denmon are mentally ready. They each fill a need for the Wizards. My philosophy on the draft is evolving, Dat. Diaper dandy freshman project to be great based on physical talent. Few are finished products. I think, however, there is much to like about player who stay 2, 3, or even 4 years of college and get better.

I like how Iman Shumpert, Marshon Brooks, and Isaiah Thomas are playing as NBA players. They stayed a while in college and got better. So did Charles Jenkins and Klay Thompson.

In this draft, I am really impressed with the progress Kevin Jones and Jae Crowder made in the NCAAs. Marshon Brooks was a late bloomer. I also like Drew Gordon. He plays a man's game. Royce White obviously is NBA-ready, but I don't like the anxiety issue with him. This guys can play just as well if not better than Beal or MKG, IMO.

Will Barton improved tremendously over the past season. I like his background of winning. I think he's going to step in and surprise the heck out of people.

I believe rebounding and shooting are talents, Dat. Beal and MKG are certainly talented. However, how much more talented are they than the guys I have mentioned?

One young guy I was totally wrong about is Dwight Howard. I liked Okafor. So, I could be wrong in my approach. If MKG and Beal are that much better in a couple years, I will admit I am wrong. For now, however, I like the guys I mentioned and think they are immensely talented players.

Are they much better right now? No. Are they much more talented? Well, there's a very good reason why MKG & Beal are considered top five talents and I would say yes. The same goes for Drummond, but there's the obvious risk of him not developing.

Were not drafting a player for one or two seasons. If that was the case then you'd likely be smart to draft the most mature (older) and ready prospect. Were drafting a player that could potentially grow with the core. Guys like Kevin Jones or Jae Crowder may have more of an immediate impact, but when MKG & Beal are Crowder or Zeller's age, it's expected that both would be far superior to their older counterparts.

CCJ, you mention being competitive, but that's not the ultimate goal. The goal is to build a contender and without elite talent, that becomes an excerise in futility.

And talent acquisition in free agency is a risky proposition. I certainly wouldn't consider Batum or a 35-year Ray Allen as elite talent. Maybe our definitions are different. But we need a legit star. Batum is closer to a deluxe role player than a star. The best way to get a star is with a top five pick. That's why I'm not all that interested in trading for ready made NBA role players or using the pick to dump Blatche's deal. This pick is really too important to worry about turning quarters into dimes & nickles.

[Dat2U]

Somebody needs to persuade me on Royce White. In my system, he has a rating that falls well outside that of a 2nd round pick. I like the assists and rebounds, but he was extremely inefficient -- subpar shooting efficiency and way high turnovers.

I'm not sold on White either. The high TO's tell me his unique skillset is not going to translate. It's sorta like Blatche playing point forward in summer league. Yeah, he looked good doing it but against elite competition, White is going to be too turnover prone to have an offense run through his hands. His court vision will be good but how effective can he be then without the ball? I also have questions about asking a player to reinvent his game. And that's before all the questions related to the off-the-court stuff.

2nd round flyer? Fine. But I'm not considering him in the 1st round.

[The Consiglieri]

I want to see Kev hit 3/10 FTs blindfolded
I have serious doubts but I'd be beyond impressed if he could do it.
I have guest passes at the Y in Reston. Verbal8 can verify.
And I also doubt you can out FT shoot my daughter.
(neither can I)

I was a really good FT shooter a million years ago in high school. I'm not that proficient any more -- I haven't touched a ball in a year (frigging knees). I actually used to practice shooting free throws with my eyes closed. Once I had my feet where I wanted them, I had a routine I'd do and then the shot was almost automatic. I don't think I could hit 3-in-10 blindfolded today, but I could probably do it in a few weeks.

I like Beal as a pick and I'd love to add Crowder or Dra Green

In my stuff, if you take out the guys who rate high but won't go until later (Crowder, Lillard and Denmon), I have Beal rated a little behind MKG and Robinson -- in a group with T.Zeller and Sullinger. If the Wizards pick 4th, I think Beal would be fine. Davis, MKG and Robinson are ahead of him in my stuff, though.

Craft would also be a nice pickup with our 2nd 2nd if he lasts that long

He's just a sophomore so he's almost certainly going back to school.

I'm with zards on Crawford. He has more potential than some here are
giving him credit for. The flaws are so obvious that folks are overlooking
what he has accomplished. Now if you believe he is already everything
he might become, than I'd have less hope. I'm not ready to make that assumption.

Inefficient gunners are easy to replace. I like Crawford's competitiveness, but I don't like his game. I think the Wizards could upgrade there with a quality 2nd round pick -- a guy like Denmon would better, I think.

I would love to see your metrics on how Beal would rate if you rated him from Feb 2nd to the Elite 8 loss. His #'s echoed projections and expectations, more or less, from that point onward. In every write you you saw, all the scouts said that Beal wasn't shooting like Beal for the first half of the season, and by Feb who started to get his groove back. I distrust metrics based on his overall freshmen #'s because I believe the beginning of his freshman year (the first 18 or so games) was an aberration for him, much like Barnes hideous start at UNC (though I'm much more down on barnes). Beal was known as the best shooter, or at worst, the best 2 guard shooter of any recruit coming out of high school last year, and he began the season in a huge slump. His numbers in November-December-January aren't nearly as indicative of his ability as his February-March #'s were, which were much more in line w/expectations, particularly of scouts who have been watching the kid for at least 3-4 years. Of course there are also 2 outlier games near the end that messed with his overall #'s, drop the Kentucky/Alabama debacles and his overall #'s jump 4% on overall shooting, and 2 percent on 3's. Big outlier games.

I don't mean to argue that Beal is the next Ray Allen, or anything like that, I just think he's a prospect thats more in line with his second half than his first of the season. I can see why some would argue getting him alone would be a disappointment, and to a degree it would be, as I dont see him becoming a star, but of all 3 lesser guys in the big 4, I think he's the most likely to reach his ceiling, and have the highest ceiling overall. So I would probably take Beal, over MKG and Robinson. I'm very curious how teams like Charlotte, New Orleans, New Jersey, Cleveland etc rate all these guys, just to see what we'd likely end up with if we got hosed in the lottery. I can live with any of them, but I think MKG technically has the highest ceiling, but Beal probably has the highest combo of high ceiling, and likelihood of actually reaching the ceiling of the 3 guys and he'd help us a ton as well. Fantastic BBIQ, hypercoachable, great team guy, fiery competitor, confident, hard working, and a very good ceiling, and raw ability combo to match his intangibles, and actual skill.

I will always be bummed that this draft probably doesn't feature "Good Lord!!!" studs like the '03 draft, and some other famous hauls, but I am happy that the guys 2-4, look a hellvalot better than last years 2-4 or '09's 2-4.

[The Consiglieri]

Washington is not that far off being competitive Dat, post Nene. What I would do is try to get in terms of elite talent are FAs, Ray Allen and Nick Batum.

I would draft guys who can step in a play right way. Tyler Zeller, Jae Crowder, Will Barton, Kevin Jones, Marcus Denmon are mentally ready. They each fill a need for the Wizards. My philosophy on the draft is evolving, Dat. Diaper dandy freshman project to be great based on physical talent. Few are finished products. I think, however, there is much to like about player who stay 2, 3, or even 4 years of college and get better.

I like how Iman Shumpert, Marshon Brooks, and Isaiah Thomas are playing as NBA players. They stayed a while in college and got better. So did Charles Jenkins and Klay Thompson.

In this draft, I am really impressed with the progress Kevin Jones and Jae Crowder made in the NCAAs. Marshon Brooks was a late bloomer. I also like Drew Gordon. He plays a man's game. Royce White obviously is NBA-ready, but I don't like the anxiety issue with him. This guys can play just as well if not better than Beal or MKG, IMO.

Will Barton improved tremendously over the past season. I like his background of winning. I think he's going to step in and surprise the heck out of people.

I believe rebounding and shooting are talents, Dat. Beal and MKG are certainly talented. However, how much more talented are they than the guys I have mentioned?

One young guy I was totally wrong about is Dwight Howard. I liked Okafor. So, I could be wrong in my approach. If MKG and Beal are that much better in a couple years, I will admit I am wrong. For now, however, I like the guys I mentioned and think they are immensely talented players.

Are they much better right now? No. Are they much more talented? Well, there's a very good reason why MKG & Beal are considered top five talents and I would say yes. The same goes for Drummond, but there's the obvious risk of him not developing.

Were not drafting a player for one or two seasons. If that was the case then you'd likely be smart to draft the most mature (older) and ready prospect. Were drafting a player that could potentially grow with the core. Guys like Kevin Jones or Jae Crowder may have more of an immediate impact, but when MKG & Beal are Crowder or Zeller's age, it's expected that both would be far superior to their older counterparts.

CCJ, you mention being competitive, but that's not the ultimate goal. The goal is to build a contender and without elite talent, that becomes an excerise in futility.

And talent acquisition in free agency is a risky proposition. I certainly wouldn't consider Batum or a 35-year Ray Allen as elite talent. Maybe our definitions are different. But we need a legit star. Batum is closer to a deluxe role player than a star. The best way to get a star is with a top five pick. That's why I'm not all that interested in trading for ready made NBA role players or using the pick to dump Blatche's deal. This pick is really too important to worry about turning quarters into dimes & nickles.

Count me in with Dat. I don't see how anyone can make the argument were not that far away. Additionally the entire league knows about Batum including his own team. Why the heck is he choosing us? Answer? He aint. Ray Allen? Old as hell. Why draft him? Were easily the 2nd worst team in the league right now and cant expect to be much better than in the 5-10 area next year. As Dat argues, this team will be irrelevant unless it lands legit talent, and young talent. It absolutely can afford to take its time because #1 the team stinks and doesnt have a choice and #2 nobody that could truly be transformative would choose us until we became elite anyway. Grabbing guys because their closer to contributing instead of because they're the best player just doesnt make any sense to me.

As has been detailed, I really like enough guys in that 7-16 or so range to consider dealing down from 2-4 for the right combo, but it would have to be a really sweet deal. I can't see CCJ's strategy paying off at all. A reserve C, with the potential to be borderline starter, and some parts is not remotely enough to pay us back for this all time awful season. We may only get a good player for all our trouble, but we sure as hell better get at least that. If were dealing down we need to aim higher than "adequate" in my view, and every single write up I see on Zeller suggests that (though im much much higher on the guy now than I was last summer or even this past fall and earlier in the winter).

To me, it's to be Davis, or one of the big 3, Drummond (gag, probably seriously trade down there), or a trade down for a pairing of a shooter and a big:

Shooters:

1. Barnes

> J. Lamb

3. T. Jones

4. A. Rivers

5. Q. Miller

Bigs:

1. PJ3

2. Sully

3. Zeller

4. Henson

5. Leonard

[doclinkin]

Somebody needs to persuade me on Royce White. In my system, he has a rating that falls well outside that of a 2nd round pick. I like the assists and rebounds, but he was extremely inefficient -- subpar shooting efficiency and way high turnovers.

I'm still in the process of convincing myself. I oscillate on the topic. Basically it boils down to this, I've seen a handful of games and clips, enough to know he's got incredible talent if he can harness it but there are some real question marks whether that is possible consistently. I suspect he'll be an up and down player, coming up biggest in big time situations, but maybe disappearing in the doldrums of midseason against lesser competition, or if stuck on a team with bad chemistry.

Royce is a big time player whose stats are dragged back by a fatal flaw. His 2ptFG% is equivalent to Jared Sullinger (Royce 54.1% vs Jared's 54.2%) getting to the line at an equivalent rate to say Thomas Robinson or Tyler Zeller (all with adjusted of 7.6 FTA's per 40minutes paced). So why isn't he in the conversation as a big time frontcourt beast. Because that scoring efficiency is drowned by his lousy FT%'s .

That part is inarguable. FT% is a mental issue in large part, and he's got admitted mental issues. When the game slows down and he has time to think about it, he may lose focus, I dunno.

The converse also seems to be true though, when he's expected to come up big time he rushes to meet the challenge. What I like about Royce is that big-game competitiveness. He seems to dial in best when he has a big time opponent. Caught my eye first when he outboarded Thomas Robinson in a low-post slugfest this year: Robinson pulled down 14 boards, scoring 11pts his frontcourt ally Jeff Withey blocked 7 shots. So all Royce did was pull 17 boards and go for 18 points on 7-14 shooting (50% from the interior, hitting 1-2 from 3FG) despite Withey's presence. His team lost, but they won the revenge game where Royce yanked 9 boards to TRob's 7.

You can scroll down the list though. In games against ranked opponents he's hitting well better than 50% from the field. His stinkers come against teams like Drake or Mississippi Valley State. The nastier the frontcourt, the more efficient he seems to be.

As for turnovers, assists etc.

Truth is I'm startled Royce had as many assists as he did. Or I would be if I didn't see some of the reads he made. Iowa State had basically ZERO other players. The team's top gunner in FG attempts was a 6'3" shooting guard named Chris Allen, who took 30 more shots than Royce in 100 fewer minutes despite the fact that he was gunning only 37% from the field. (Backcourt shooter Scott Christofferson hit a nice 45% from three, on far fewer attempts, which likely accounts for many of the assists). In any case you don't need to guess that the team was lousy before him, considering these two gunners were seniors and the rest of the starters were also upperclassmen. Last year's team, without Royce, pretty much nearly went 0-for-Conference-play. This year: beat UConn in the early rounds, tested UK.

Essentially Coach Fred Hoiberg --who played with Sam Cassell and KG and know what an NBA player looks like-- decided his team's only chance of winning was to put the ball in the hands of Royce White an let him do whatever the hell he wants to do with it. Looks to me lie it worked pretty well.

Anyway. The point is not that the 270lb. block of gristle Royce will be a high volume highpost passer in the NBA, funneling all possessions through him. His game will change. But change seems to be a part of his metier. If you catch interviews with him he talks cogently about valuing the 2nd chance given to him, that he had to jettison many of his prior crowd and make smarter decisions. He honors the challenge given to him as a spokesperson for other people struggling with anxiety issues and talks with determination about making them proud of his example.

Hypnotherapy, medication, sheer force of will,maturity, whatever it takes. I'm saying I see a firey competitor who loves the game, nearly lost his chance, and who has all the talent needed to succeed at the next level, who is only held back by a curable condition (or one that can be treated anyway) and on nights when he is dialed in and focused can post all-star highlights. Conditioning (held back by fear of heart failure) and free throws (too much time to doubt, no routine to cure the yips) are all that keeps him from top 5 caliber talent.

Okay that and the fact that he really really doesn't want to have to get on the plane if he doesn't have to. But he does have to, so there you go...