2012 NBA Draft - Part II

[Nivek]

Hey nivek, where do you rank Moe Harkless in your system? Are his numbers substantially below MKG's (the difference between them is TS%, though as far as I can tell almost all of that is from Harkless jacking up an extra low percentage 3 a game) I've been thinking lately the gap between them is going to closer to 5 spots than 20 by draft day

I have Harkless with late 2nd round rating. His numbers look similar to MKG's at first, but MKG gets credit for being on a good team playing a tough schedule. Harkless was on a bad team. Also, Harkless' efficiency was awful -- his shooting was particularly bad. MKG got 9.5 rebounds per 40 while competing for boards with both Davis and Terrence Jones, as well as the opponent. Harkless got basically the same boards, but with very little competition from his teammates.

[Severn Hoos]

Randolph Childress

Only your first answer will be accepted.

Childress looks like a guy who should have come out early. As a freshman, he rated as a late 1st. As a soph, he rated as a mid-to-late 1st. As a junior, he rated as a late 2nd. As a senior, he rated a mid-2nd. All 4 years together -- an earlyish 2nd.

Actual answers: Kevin Love, Carlos Boozer, Zach Randolph, Glen Davis, Brandon Bass, Carl Landry, David Lee, Patrick Patterson. Not that I'm stereotyping or anything...

I'll get these guys in sometime kinda-sorta soon.

Thanks, Kev! And don't worry about the others, was making more of an editorial point than anything...

Interesting about Childress, because at 1st glance, his stats look significantly better in his Senior season, must be the mojo magic you got going on in that spreadsheet of yours to bring out what I can't see. (I love to read your "In my stuff..." posts. Makes me envision a back alley discussion with seedy characters: "Hey, I know this guy, he's got some really great stuff....")

Aaaaannywaaaayy....

I was thinking about that PF list (and you could add Al Jefferson, though he wouldn't be in your stuff since he didn't go to college) and realized that virtually every one of them has exceeded his draft spot. Love was the only top 10 guy, and he's done FAR better than Mayo & Beasley, both of whom were drafted before him. Randolph has exceeded a #19 slot (think Young & McGee), Lee was #30, Boozer, Bass, Davis, & Landry were all 2nd rounders - basically a crapshoot to even make a roster, let alone contribute. Only Patterson looks like a disappointment so far.

Methinks the floorbound widebody who gets by on strength, smarts, and skill is undervalued by NBA scouts. Just sayin'.....

[Nivek]

Some of the names thrown out I already have in (at least their last year):

- Bosh -- top 5 in most drafts
- Wade -- top pick in most drafts, 10th best rating in my database (now with 352 player seasons)
- Arenas -- top 5 pick in most drafts
- Griffin -- tied for 4th best rating
- Beasley -- top 5 pick -- probably #1 pick in some drafts (has to be considered a HUGE disappointment)
- Adam Morrison -- late 2nd round
- Chris Wilcox -- lottery pick -- top 10 in some drafts

Jim: I'm not equipped for the high schoolers or international players...yet. I'll get to the internationals at some point. Not much urgency on the high schoolers since they're not allowed into the NBA anyway.

[Nivek]

Sev: Turns out I also have Zach Randolph (what is it with you and Randolphs?) in my "stuff".

His rating: top 10 pick in all but the deepest drafts. In this draft, he'd rate in the same group with Sullinger, Robinson and Beal.

[Ruzious]

Webber, Chris Paul, Jason Kidd, Grant Hill, Rasheed, Stackhouse, Jamison, VCarter,
Mutombo, Adam Morrisey, Kwame...Tyson Chandler, Pau,

Kenny Green, Drexler, Thurl Bailey, Iverson,
Camby, Stockton and KMalone, Chris Wilcox, Chris Washburn
Len Bias

the guy who was Vilanova's Champ Center

Ed Pinckney? Wow that is a name i hadn't thought about in a long time.

Washburn was such a waste.

A few years ago i was in a gym in Rockville and saw someone wearing a Bias Celtics jersey. I wonder how many of those are out there.

Drummond physically reminds me of Washburn.

I was at UMCP while Bias was there. I have told this before, but maybe not to you. I used to see him all the time in passing on campus but was too nervous and in awe to speak to him. One day he spoke to me first. Very friendly guy.

The day Bias died I remember everybody at work (used to work on Goddard SFC in Greenbelt) just stopped working. We couldn't believe it. I went to his wake held at Cole. It was surreal. Len Bias seemed superhuman and for him to die didn't make any sense at all.

Watching him in ACC play I will always say he was the best. Not Jordan. Maybe Dean Smith held back MJ but Bias had some huge games against everyone, including Hakeem and Phi Slamma Jamma Houston.

Anyway, Leonard Bias improved at every statistic the three years he was at UMCP. That final season, IIRC he averaged 23 ppg despite being double and triple team. He shot his best percentage, too. He would have been a sure NBA HOF player had he lived and taken care of himself. Boston would have won some more titles, too.

Wow, it really is a small world afterall. I used to work at Goddard, too - in UMCP's Cooperative Education Program back in 1981 and 1982. I worked a couple of semesters and summers there in their budget department - rejiggering funds between various NASA projects. And of course, I was a student there also when Bias was there and saw him a few times. I was amazed at how normal he seemed - pretty much like any other student - except tall. My best friend there went to high school with Bias in Hyattsville. Anyway, if we could back in time, I'm sure we probably crossed paths lots of times. It would be cool to see you and say - "Hey CCJ, what's up with the Bullets?"

[tontoz]

Webber, Chris Paul, Jason Kidd, Grant Hill, Rasheed, Stackhouse, Jamison, VCarter,
Mutombo, Adam Morrisey, Kwame...Tyson Chandler, Pau,

Kenny Green, Drexler, Thurl Bailey, Iverson,
Camby, Stockton and KMalone, Chris Wilcox, Chris Washburn
Len Bias

the guy who was Vilanova's Champ Center

Ed Pinckney? Wow that is a name i hadn't thought about in a long time.

Washburn was such a waste.

A few years ago i was in a gym in Rockville and saw someone wearing a Bias Celtics jersey. I wonder how many of those are out there.

Drummond physically reminds me of Washburn.

I was at UMCP while Bias was there. I have told this before, but maybe not to you. I used to see him all the time in passing on campus but was too nervous and in awe to speak to him. One day he spoke to me first. Very friendly guy.

The day Bias died I remember everybody at work (used to work on Goddard SFC in Greenbelt) just stopped working. We couldn't believe it. I went to his wake held at Cole. It was surreal. Len Bias seemed superhuman and for him to die didn't make any sense at all.

Watching him in ACC play I will always say he was the best. Not Jordan. Maybe Dean Smith held back MJ but Bias had some huge games against everyone, including Hakeem and Phi Slamma Jamma Houston.

Anyway, Leonard Bias improved at every statistic the three years he was at UMCP. That final season, IIRC he averaged 23 ppg despite being double and triple team. He shot his best percentage, too. He would have been a sure NBA HOF player had he lived and taken care of himself. Boston would have won some more titles, too.

I was a freshman at UMCP when Bias died. I remember seeing him on campus and his legs were just huge. I had a cousin who had a class with him and said Bias didn't skip and was attentive in class.

Such a shame

[Severn Hoos]

One of the things I want to analyze is what's most predictive of NBA success. Is it the final year? The entire college career?

Now this is an interesting question! I used to despise the one-and-dones, wanted to stay away from them. Loved the up-from-the-bootstraps stories, guys who were overlooked going into college but really made something of themselves while there. Googs, Arenas, Nash, even Dikembe & (H)akeem.

But it seems to me times have changed. Guys don't have 3 or 4 years to build a resume any more. Late bloomers have been some of the biggest disappointments of the past decade: Hilton Armstrong, Wesley Johnson, Thabeet, and even one of my faves, Evan Turner. (I do hope he's coming around, but he was the #2 pick, after all.)

So yeah, is it the last season in college that matters vs. the entire career? And what's more - does it matter if that "last" season was the player's Freshman or Senior season? It seems patently obvious that it does, I wonder if the stats agree...

[Nivek]

I added Bias's numbers and I was surprised that he didn't rate better. He progressed from "don't draft" as a freshman to late 2nd as a soph (using the current 60-pick draft as the benchmark), to a mid-first as a junior to a top 5-10 pick as a senior. When I look at his stats by category, I was startled to see how little he rebounded and assisted. Compare his 7.6 rebounds per 40 as a senior to 7.3 per 40 for Dell Curry. Jordan grabbed 7.1 per 40 as a junior. His steals and blocks were also low -- 1 of each per 40. Average for the entire database (357 player seasons) 1.5 steals and 1.3 blocks per 40.

His senior year rates in the same general group with these players: Cousins (FR), Battier (FR), Faried (SR), MKG (FR), Bosh (FR), DeJuan Blair (SO).

[Nivek]

Last one for the day -- Hakeem.

As a freshman, he rated as a lotto pick, borderline top 10. His soph season ranks as the 5th best in the database -- a notch ahead of Oden. His junior year -- 2nd best in my stuff behind Davis. Which means ahead of Duncan.

Also -- his junior year rates as slightly better than Jordan's junior year. The margin ain't wide, but it's there. That year, there were two players worthy of the #1 pick in virtually every draft. Maybe at some point I'll run the numbers on Sam Bowie.

[Ruzious]

Last one for the day -- Hakeem.

As a freshman, he rated as a lotto pick, borderline top 10. His soph season ranks as the 5th best in the database -- a notch ahead of Oden. His junior year -- 2nd best in my stuff behind Davis. Which means ahead of Duncan.

Also -- his junior year rates as slightly better than Jordan's junior year. The margin ain't wide, but it's there. That year, there were two players worthy of the #1 pick in virtually every draft. Maybe at some point I'll run the numbers on Sam Bowie.

Wow, Davis is in some rarified air there. I'd love it if you could run Drexler through your system. The Glide and The Dream on the same college team was ridiculous.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Wow, it really is a small world afterall. I used to work at Goddard, too - in UMCP's Cooperative Education Program back in 1981 and 1982. I worked a couple of semesters and summers there in their budget department - rejiggering funds between various NASA projects. And of course, I was a student there also when Bias was there and saw him a few times. I was amazed at how normal he seemed - pretty much like any other student - except tall. My best friend there went to high school with Bias in Hyattsville. Anyway, if we could back in time, I'm sure we probably crossed paths lots of times. It would be cool to see you and say - "Hey CCJ, what's up with the Bullets?"

Ruz, if the program you did was called Summer Institute in Computer Applications, you and I had to have met before. I was there both summers, 1981 and 1982 as well.

It's a small, small world, indeed...

[fugop]

I'd be interested in seeing if there are some commonalities among busts:

2009

Hasheem Thabeet
Jonny Flynn
Terrence Williams
Early Clark

2008

Michael Beasley
Joe Alexander
Anthony Randolph

2007

Acie Law
Sean Williams
Morris Almond

2006

Adam Morrison
Tyrus Thomas
Shelden Williams
Randy Foye
Patrick O'Bryant
Mouhamed Sene
Hilton Armstrong

[Ruzious]

Wow, it really is a small world afterall. I used to work at Goddard, too - in UMCP's Cooperative Education Program back in 1981 and 1982. I worked a couple of semesters and summers there in their budget department - rejiggering funds between various NASA projects. And of course, I was a student there also when Bias was there and saw him a few times. I was amazed at how normal he seemed - pretty much like any other student - except tall. My best friend there went to high school with Bias in Hyattsville. Anyway, if we could back in time, I'm sure we probably crossed paths lots of times. It would be cool to see you and say - "Hey CCJ, what's up with the Bullets?"

Ruz, if the program you did was called Summer Institute in Computer Applications, you and I had to have met before. I was there both summers, 1981 and 1982 as well.

It's a small, small world, indeed...

Very cool. Mine didn't have anything to do with computers. It was more of an intern type of thing where they were grooming me to work in their budgeting department. It would have worked out well, except I was totally clueless on how the real world works. They asked me to do an evaluation of the budget and accounting departments there, and I made the mistake of being totally honest and pretty much trashing their systems and the people that would have hired me.

Btw, I met Buck Williams when he was a senior and I think I was a sophomore. Him... I was in awe of. He had more of a presence about him, and he was one of those people who went out of his way to be nice to strangers - probably because he knew people were in awe of him. I mean... he stood toe to toe (and forehead to chin?) with the great Ralph Sampson and out-played him.
Those were the daze.

[tontoz]

Last one for the day -- Hakeem.

As a freshman, he rated as a lotto pick, borderline top 10. His soph season ranks as the 5th best in the database -- a notch ahead of Oden. His junior year -- 2nd best in my stuff behind Davis. Which means ahead of Duncan.

Also -- his junior year rates as slightly better than Jordan's junior year. The margin ain't wide, but it's there. That year, there were two players worthy of the #1 pick in virtually every draft. Maybe at some point I'll run the numbers on Sam Bowie.

LOL

If i remember right Hakeem hadn't even been playing that long before college. To play at the level he did without growing up playing ball was mind boggling. To me at that time he was the clear choice over Jordan.

[The Consiglieri]

Brian Tribble

Yeah, it was clear that the media left some gaps in the time frame of accounting for all Bias' activity the night and early morning hours he died. Reading between the lines, I thought he was with GF(s) when things went bad. Seemed to me experienced druggies might have known how to revive him. Gatlin, Terry Long, whoever else was involved in covering up things seems to have not taken action that might have saved Bias.

The guy Tribble definitely was a seedy character in all of this. I don't think that was Bias' first time using coke. Not with that guy in his circle. jim, your friend might know some inside stuff. Word on the street is often correct. I knew about Marion Barry's drug use well before he got busted and even before he said "Catch me if you can." It wouldn't surprise me if Tribble did something like that.

Your friend probably knows about Tribble.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/sp ... iblate.htm

It's a little bit off topic, i remember reading and listening to Bill Simmons stuff about Bias, and didn't know until recently that Bird had actually played with him several times before they drafted him (apparently back then Auerbach set up that kind of stuff in the offseason), and it was such an immense tragedy, I was elevan when it happened and only have the vaguest of memories, considering our own tragedy with Sean Taylor, it's unspeakable to think about what it must have felt like for Celtics fans to lose their two best young players, a decade or so apart in the eighties and nineties to those separate and different tragedies. Anyway, my off topic subject would be simply that for those two young to remember (and I am, but im a history teacher and so always digging into this sort of thing), the eighties were coke and crack central, it was freaking everywhere. A little fact not known by many is that apparently a huge portion of the reason the niners failed to defend their title in 1982 was not the strike, or a super bowl hangover, but rather coke. I dont know if the strike exacerbated the issue (im inclined to think it was), but apparently the team had a ton of players that got involved in the drug scene, and in those days, for high rollers/entertainers/athletes, drugs like coke were freaking everywhere and anywhere, so its not surprising, and deeply unfortunate this happened, but knowing the numbers, its not surprising there were more than a few losses in the fame industry to drugs. There was a level of normalcy and lethality with certain drugs that made it a certainty back then, just as prescription pills these days now carry a similar risk (when mixed) for those in similar fields.

[The Consiglieri]

Last one for the day -- Hakeem.

As a freshman, he rated as a lotto pick, borderline top 10. His soph season ranks as the 5th best in the database -- a notch ahead of Oden. His junior year -- 2nd best in my stuff behind Davis. Which means ahead of Duncan.

Also -- his junior year rates as slightly better than Jordan's junior year. The margin ain't wide, but it's there. That year, there were two players worthy of the #1 pick in virtually every draft. Maybe at some point I'll run the numbers on Sam Bowie.

LOL

If i remember right Hakeem hadn't even been playing that long before college. To play at the level he did without growing up playing ball was mind boggling. To me at that time he was the clear choice over Jordan.

Im sure soccer played a role. I know he played a ton growing up, and goalie. Goalies have great footwork, hand eye coordination, and have to know angles like nobodies business. It's a weird combo of math, athleticism, hand-eye, leadership, and instincts and confidence. It definitely was an asset in his development and helped him in his transition, that, and just the fact that he was an insanely one of a kind talents and athletes.

[jangles86]

Is Serephins great form changing our draft strategy? I still think if we got Davis or Drummond it would be the best result

[willbcocks]

Davis may be the best player we have a good chance to draft in the next 20 years. Seraphin's progress means nothing if he's available.

[gesa2]

... and Drummond would be a big risk in any year, and will take years to develop if we take that risk. So I don't think Seraphin's string of good games changes our strategy.

[dobrojim]

Drummond is only attractive as potential trade bait and I'd want to have a
very good idea of who would be interested and just how interested they
would be before drafting him.

Davis otoh is a no-brainer no matter who you have. The Spurs had DRob
and still drafted Duncan. There is not a team in the league that shouldn't
draft Davis if they had the chance.