Kevin Seraphin

[Jimmy Recard]

Wiz win lotto, take Davis, trade Seraphin for James Harden.

Hell yeah

[fishercob]

Seraphin is starting to serve as a bit of a cautionary tale to this online community and the speed and methods with which we evaluate players, transactions, and (gulp) management.

I liked Kevin from the outset -- the physicality, the footwork, his inclinations in pick and roll defense, his ambidextrous jump hooks. But as he racked up fouls, DNP's, and unimpressive stats I went from being concerned to having essentially written off his viability as a prospect.

And now this. Yes, I'd like him to draw more fouls and rebound more. But heavens, he's 22. It seems more plausible at this stage that he would end up a star than a complete bust, though there's obviously a ton of room between.

What can we learn from this? What does this tell us? Perhaps our eyes don't lie as much as the stat guys would like us to believe (or at least in this case they didnt)? Perhaps Ted, Ernie and Ed Tapscott happen to know what they are doing. Hell, it's not like this guy was on any of our radars before the 2010 draft -- and there's a heaping pile of crapola that went after Kevin; Booker was one of the only good picks in the balance of that first round.

So I can't see Seraphin performing like this and write off Vesely or Singleton, especially not in this bizarre season. And as much as I had my pitchfork out for Ernie earlier this year, I feel pretty sheepish demanding his ouster when he dominated the 2010 draft so thoroughly. That will play itself out.

I'm excited for Kevin's continued development, that is for sure.

[veji1]

It shows that to succeed you need intangible attributes (Seraphin is an ox with quick feet, not common), the will to work hard and the ability to learn which some might call BBIQ (Seraphin works and has shown over the last year that he can learn new moves and polish those he already had) and luck/opportunity : Had McGee not been the utter moron that he is but a solid 15/9/2.5 no bonehead plays center, Seraphin would just get garbage minutes, still do the same mistakes and eventually leave for another team or be traded as a filler...

Now if Seraphin can be pushed to attack the rim more, even if it means committing silly offensive fouls at the beginning, he could rack up a solid 6FTAs a game on average, and as a very decent FT shooter, he would become a very solid player.

Now we have to be careful. Lots of people thought that Ike Diogu would be such an ox after he strung along a few very solid performances in his various stints at GSW or Indiana, but it only lasted a few games each time and look where he is now. I don't think Seraphin's career will suffer the same fate, because of all the qualities he has shown, but you never know.

[tontoz]

It should also be noted that KS had 3 assists twice in the past 5 games. McGee hasn't done that all season.

[Upper Decker]

How would you compare Kevin Seraphin to Serge Ibaka? They’ve both from roughly the same area of the world. Both are young big men (same age) with developing games. Both are roughly the same size. Both are excellent defenders although in different ways. Seraphin is probably a better man to man defender, while Ibaka is the better help defender. Their per-36 numbers are basically identical for their second year’s. I haven’t watched much Ibaka, but from what I’ve seen he’s primarily a slick jump shooting big man who lacks a refined post game. Serephin, on the other hand, has a highly refined post game considering his experience level.

Who ultimately has more upside?

[Ruzious]

Seraphin is starting to serve as a bit of a cautionary tale to this online community and the speed and methods with which we evaluate players, transactions, and (gulp) management.

I liked Kevin from the outset -- the physicality, the footwork, his inclinations in pick and roll defense, his ambidextrous jump hooks. But as he racked up fouls, DNP's, and unimpressive stats I went from being concerned to having essentially written off his viability as a prospect.

And now this. Yes, I'd like him to draw more fouls and rebound more. But heavens, he's 22. It seems more plausible at this stage that he would end up a star than a complete bust, though there's obviously a ton of room between.

What can we learn from this? What does this tell us? Perhaps our eyes don't lie as much as the stat guys would like us to believe (or at least in this case they didnt)? Perhaps Ted, Ernie and Ed Tapscott happen to know what they are doing. Hell, it's not like this guy was on any of our radars before the 2010 draft -- and there's a heaping pile of crapola that went after Kevin; Booker was one of the only good picks in the balance of that first round.

So I can't see Seraphin performing like this and write off Vesely or Singleton, especially not in this bizarre season. And as much as I had my pitchfork out for Ernie earlier this year, I feel pretty sheepish demanding his ouster when he dominated the 2010 draft so thoroughly. That will play itself out.

I'm excited for Kevin's continued development, that is for sure.

No doubt - Seraphin is probably the most improved player in the NBA and is certainly far exceeding my low expectations. Howevuh, the cautionary tale might be - don't get caught up in games where a center is matched up against backup PF's - like the game against Orlando - the only one where he scored 20 points. Now, someone's actually comparing him favorably to Ibaka - and there are probably folks here who agree with that. When a player goes from 0 to 60 in 5 seconds, he's usally somewhere in the middle. The dust hasn't settled yet as to whether he's closer to 0 or 60. But what is very impressive to me is his consistency of effort. If you consistently play hard in the NBA, that usually goes a long way.

[dobrojim]

How would you compare Kevin Seraphin to Serge Ibaka? They’ve both from roughly the same area of the world. Both are young big men (same age) with developing games. Both are roughly the same size. Both are excellent defenders although in different ways. Seraphin is probably a better man to man defender, while Ibaka is the better help defender. Their per-36 numbers are basically identical for their second year’s. I haven’t watched much Ibaka, but from what I’ve seen he’s primarily a slick jump shooting big man who lacks a refined post game. Serephin, on the other hand, has a highly refined post game considering his experience level.

Who ultimately has more upside?

maybe i don't recall correctly but

Seraphin is from S America (French Guyana)
Ibaka is from the Africa (Congo)

other than that maybe not too dissimilar

[The Consiglieri]

Seraphin is starting to serve as a bit of a cautionary tale to this online community and the speed and methods with which we evaluate players, transactions, and (gulp) management.

I liked Kevin from the outset -- the physicality, the footwork, his inclinations in pick and roll defense, his ambidextrous jump hooks. But as he racked up fouls, DNP's, and unimpressive stats I went from being concerned to having essentially written off his viability as a prospect.

And now this. Yes, I'd like him to draw more fouls and rebound more. But heavens, he's 22. It seems more plausible at this stage that he would end up a star than a complete bust, though there's obviously a ton of room between.

What can we learn from this? What does this tell us? Perhaps our eyes don't lie as much as the stat guys would like us to believe (or at least in this case they didnt)? Perhaps Ted, Ernie and Ed Tapscott happen to know what they are doing. Hell, it's not like this guy was on any of our radars before the 2010 draft -- and there's a heaping pile of crapola that went after Kevin; Booker was one of the only good picks in the balance of that first round.

So I can't see Seraphin performing like this and write off Vesely or Singleton, especially not in this bizarre season. And as much as I had my pitchfork out for Ernie earlier this year, I feel pretty sheepish demanding his ouster when he dominated the 2010 draft so thoroughly. That will play itself out.

I'm excited for Kevin's continued development, that is for sure.

Great post. As I mentioned, and Im sure everyone hear noticed, Cuban came out and said that stats and by implication, metrics, this year would be worthless due to the shortened season and completely distorted schedule, particularly for rookies. I think that's an essential factor to take into account, particularly for Singleton because of his NCAA background, and for Ves due to his injury as well. Losing july, losing training camp, losing the preseason, and then add on easily the most compacted season imaginable, about 2.5 or so times more than the usual so the owners could pull some extra scratch and basically this season was worthless for an evaluation tool in a ton of ways.

Add to that when you draft speculative guys that need a ton of work to get to their potential like Seraphin (when drafted, he was drafted purely on upside and potential, not at all on production, at that hoops summit he looked good, but the word was always that he was a great risk-reward investment, not an A+ bond by any stretch, but not a junk bond either, a nice mix of risk and upside). Ves was a more peculiar investment as he was outstanding in some area's, but horse manure in others, particularly all the metrics we all obssess on. How do you measure a guy when his assets are much less measurable (intangibles, motor, athleticsm), and his defficiency's are highly measurable (shooting, rebounding etc)?

Singleton is a much more simple case. What you see is probably what you get. By the time he was done w/college he was playing against younger guys, had become a super elite defensive player, and a great fill the stat line guy except as an offensive weapon. He only figured out how to deliver shooting at the very end, it was a very small sample size of success. I have more confidence, a lot more, in Singleton eventually growing into a quality, maybe even elite defensive player, than I do in him improving substantially on the offensive end. I don't believe he's gonna be as awful as he's been this year, but I don't believe he's gonna find his stroke and become a league average or better offensive threat.

But preaching patience? All for it. Just look at how beautifully (except for the tank the last two games) things have gone since we ejected the knuckleheads, and turned the team over to the team first hard workers and kids, and added some hard working vets. A lot, a ton, will turn in the next two weeks, and a ton more on draft day, but what's most exciting to me is what will happen over the next 11 months. I think the direction and form of the team will come to be revealed in this time. We'll find out exactly what we have in Booker, Ves, Singleton, and Seraphin in this time period, and hopefully Wall will continue to improve as the direction, chemistry and quality of the team improves (as other writers have mentioned in all manner of non-fan sites: Wall has been completely impossible to evaluate because the team he inherited was a dysfunctional, untalented, cancer-ridden, ego-infested disaster w/no rudder, now finally with some degree of direction, and no ego's and cancer's to worry about (after Blatche is Amnesty'd), we'll see what we have in him, a complimentary elite piece, a franchise player or a bit more limited player than we may have initially thought and hoped).

Oh, and as I've mentioned elsewhere, I did not, and still wouldn't ever bash the McGee, and Young selections, on draft day '07 and '08 (i think that's when we got them and i dont feel like digging), both were the best value's on the board period, and 1 of the 2 came be valued vastly more than his slot was, while the other was solid value. I do not like EG, and want him canned, especially if we hire a young, elite, assistant to a great GM, and not recycle an old hack yet again, or a never was like Ferry, but I will not bash EG for everything, the one thing, and pretty much the only thing I praised him for during his run here has been drafting, at worst I think he's been league average at drafting, and probably better, only one of his draft picks has been poor in my view, maybe 2. Pech, and possibly Ves. Every other one was either solid, or fantastic. Where he's killed us is with stupid resignings, and every single trade he's made saver the Butler trade, and the sell off when Abe was dead and we finally started doing what we should have done a year earlier, blow up the team and get assets for our vets. I still want him fired, but I do think we should also be fair to him. At the end of the day, virtually all of his draft picks have been either solid, or superb w/only about 1 or 2 exceptions. There's a lot to recommend in that, but in the end he was the architect of the disastrous 2009 trade, the hideous resignings, and the stubborn refusal to acknowledge that the team wasn't built to win and needed to be blown up that lost us a top draft pick, and more than a year of our fandom's existence waiting for him to get a clue.

Im excited, but will be very very very disappointed if he's retained. The only thing that would bother me more is to fire him, and then hire a has been replacement, or a never was.

[The Consiglieri]

Seraphin is starting to serve as a bit of a cautionary tale to this online community and the speed and methods with which we evaluate players, transactions, and (gulp) management.

I liked Kevin from the outset -- the physicality, the footwork, his inclinations in pick and roll defense, his ambidextrous jump hooks. But as he racked up fouls, DNP's, and unimpressive stats I went from being concerned to having essentially written off his viability as a prospect.

And now this. Yes, I'd like him to draw more fouls and rebound more. But heavens, he's 22. It seems more plausible at this stage that he would end up a star than a complete bust, though there's obviously a ton of room between.

What can we learn from this? What does this tell us? Perhaps our eyes don't lie as much as the stat guys would like us to believe (or at least in this case they didnt)? Perhaps Ted, Ernie and Ed Tapscott happen to know what they are doing. Hell, it's not like this guy was on any of our radars before the 2010 draft -- and there's a heaping pile of crapola that went after Kevin; Booker was one of the only good picks in the balance of that first round.

So I can't see Seraphin performing like this and write off Vesely or Singleton, especially not in this bizarre season. And as much as I had my pitchfork out for Ernie earlier this year, I feel pretty sheepish demanding his ouster when he dominated the 2010 draft so thoroughly. That will play itself out.

I'm excited for Kevin's continued development, that is for sure.

No doubt - Seraphin is probably the most improved player in the NBA and is certainly far exceeding my low expectations. Howevuh, the cautionary tale might be - don't get caught up in games where a center is matched up against backup PF's - like the game against Orlando - the only one where he scored 20 points. Now, someone's actually comparing him favorably to Ibaka - and there are probably folks here who agree with that. When a player goes from 0 to 60 in 5 seconds, he's usally somewhere in the middle. The dust hasn't settled yet as to whether he's closer to 0 or 60. But what is very impressive to me is his consistency of effort. If you consistently play hard in the NBA, that usually goes a long way.

Excellent point and something I was suspicious of, and shocked by (the truth about it tweet) the response of some in reference to it has been a little silly, but at the same time, its exciting. As others have mentioned, from last spring to December at least, the common growing view of him was that he was a busted pick. A blown asset. He was a speculative invesment that simply didn't pay out (and that happens when you speculate plenty). Now, he's looking like a speculative investment that is finally bearing fruit. He looks like at worst, a very good reserve big man, a great 2nd or 3rd big man to give minutes at Center and PF.

The rule of thumb for life, or at least fandom as always, never get too up or too down.

[tontoz]

Last month he averaged 15 pts per 36 minutes shooting 61%.

This month he is averaging 16 pts shooting 55% in 33 minutes.

He has gone 7/8 against Bynum, 6/7 against Dwight. I think at this point we can safely say he is a legit scorer. He still has room for improvement too as far as taking it to the basket strong and getting to the line.

[Nivek]

I've enjoyed watching Seraphin have this nice run.

Now let me point that even in this nice run, his overall performance grades out (at least in my metrics) as a little above average for a center.

And let's keep in mind that we've seen similar good play for a time from youngsters before who have promptly regressed. Most encouraging sign from Seraphin is that he's been efficient offensively, and he's been solid defensively. His boardwork is still not good enough.

In this March/April time frame we're talking about a sample of 549 minutes.

I'd say let's give it some more time.

[jivelikenice]

I give him a little more credit because its not as if he has played all season long and only recently turned it up. His production increasing coincided with McGee's trade which opened up pt for him. That being said, he also played efficiently and showed signs of this earlier in the season against the Magic and Lakers. He also is not a volume player, his production is efficient and he has post moves that can translate going forward.

[dandridge 10]

Agree with the last couple of posts. I think Seraphin is a good example of why we should exercise patience, especially with 1st and 2nd year players. Now, if you don't see growth after 4 years, then I think its enough time to call a spade a spade (i.e., McGee, Young, Blatche).

I will say that I have been pretty encouraged by Ves lately. I have always been impressed with his basketball smarts and his hustle, but now that he is looking to score a little more, I think he can develop a respectable offensive game. The mechanics on his jump shot is not too bad. He sometimes fades back to much but otherwise he looks pretty good. Working with a shooting coach and gaining a little more confidence should do him wonders.

Between Ves and Singleton, Singleton actually worries me more, and its not on the offensive end. Although he looked pretty good at the beginning of the season, I have been pretty disappointed with his defense throughout the season. He really doesn't appear to have much lateral quickness. Moreover, he also seems lazy at times on the defensive end, which was a big surprise for me. For a guy that was suppose to be a defensive stopper, I think he has been anything but.

[Zonkerbl]

I'm not going to extrapolate a players' future worth based on his rookie year. That's ridiculous. I also refused to evaluate Ves until I had actually seen him play.

Kevin's in his second year and finally showing signs. Frankly I've seen that hook shot before. It's the other aspects of his game that have kept him from contributing. With Blatche he was achieving numbers highly inefficiently. I think what KS has shown us is generally what he is capable of doing consistently.

Ves had to make a lot of mental adjustments and is now showing what he can do. He is a good player.

Sometimes you take a flyer on a player maturing and it doesn't pan out (Blatche, McGee, Young). Other times it does. I think EG knew full well the low probability of Blatche, McGee, and Young maturing but decided to risk it based on their athletic talent. He kind of went the other way with Ves, KS, Booker, Singleton, and Mack. Not a terribly high ceiling but you know they will reach it.

[cdouglas]

Wiz win lotto, take Davis, trade Seraphin for James Harden.

I wouldn't want to give up a big Center like Seraphin for another slim center. Davis' size reminds me of Jeffries and McGee. I rather keep Seraphin and move Davis to the PF position.

[Dat2U]

Seraphin is starting to serve as a bit of a cautionary tale to this online community and the speed and methods with which we evaluate players, transactions, and (gulp) management.

...
So I can't see Seraphin performing like this and write off Vesely or Singleton, especially not in this bizarre season. And as much as I had my pitchfork out for Ernie earlier this year, I feel pretty sheepish demanding his ouster when he dominated the 2010 draft so thoroughly. That will play itself out.

I'm excited for Kevin's continued development, that is for sure.

I don't think Seraphin is a cautionary tale, I think he's a fluke. An outlier. The guy's improvement has been nothing short of stunning and I'd be hard pressed to find a comparable situation where a guy as bad as Seraphin was as a rookie and the first half of his second year, developed into a useful player so quickly.

[Dat2U]

I also think a frontcourt trio of Davis, Nene & Seraphin can be the backbone of a title contender.

I look forward to seeing the 3 together next season.

[miller31time]

Seraphin is starting to serve as a bit of a cautionary tale to this online community and the speed and methods with which we evaluate players, transactions, and (gulp) management.

...
So I can't see Seraphin performing like this and write off Vesely or Singleton, especially not in this bizarre season. And as much as I had my pitchfork out for Ernie earlier this year, I feel pretty sheepish demanding his ouster when he dominated the 2010 draft so thoroughly. That will play itself out.

I'm excited for Kevin's continued development, that is for sure.

I don't think Seraphin is a cautionary tale, I think he's a fluke. An outlier. The guy's improvement has been nothing short of stunning and I'd be hard pressed to find a comparable situation where a guy as bad as Seraphin was as a rookie and the first half of his second year, developed into a useful player so quickly.

Agreed. And "bad" is an understatement. In his first 1-1/2 seasons, he was atrocious. A walking embarrassment whenever he checked into the game. He'd make some of the most questionable basketball plays I've ever seen; plays that really made me question if basketball wasn't just a side job of his.

That he's where he is now is both a testament to his work ethic and a rare case of incredible luck for us Wiz fans.

[tontoz]

Seraphin is starting to serve as a bit of a cautionary tale to this online community and the speed and methods with which we evaluate players, transactions, and (gulp) management.

...
So I can't see Seraphin performing like this and write off Vesely or Singleton, especially not in this bizarre season. And as much as I had my pitchfork out for Ernie earlier this year, I feel pretty sheepish demanding his ouster when he dominated the 2010 draft so thoroughly. That will play itself out.

I'm excited for Kevin's continued development, that is for sure.

I don't think Seraphin is a cautionary tale, I think he's a fluke. An outlier. The guy's improvement has been nothing short of stunning and I'd be hard pressed to find a comparable situation where a guy as bad as Seraphin was as a rookie and the first half of his second year, developed into a useful player so quickly.

Seraphin had a language barrier to deal with plus he didn't start playing until he was 15. Those are two major issues that make his rookie stats far less reliable than if he had been born and raised here.

I don't like using him as an example in terms of how we judge players because his situation is fairly unique.

[closg00]

Several more things to add to the discussion:

* Kevin played/practiced with the French national team
* Kevin played in Spain in the Euro league
* Flip is gone, I wasn't joking that Flip would have had Cook plaing ahead of Kevin