2012 NBA Draft - Part II

[7-Day Dray]

I'd like a Drummond defender to please qualify what, exactly about his situation in college was so bad. Also, how was he poorly used? And thirdly, does the supposedly terrible situation and usage excuse the lack of motor?

I think there's a better shot he's out of the NBA in 5 years than an All-Star.

He played with chucker guards and in a system that didn't look to get him the ball at all. But he did have a limited skill set, so that's probably why he was rarely featured in the offense.

[Dat2U]

Zeller has a bit of Rasheed Wallace in his game. He is a stretch 4/5 who will be deadly in an NBA pick and pop offensively. He will be a tremendous finisher in a wide open NBA game. The thing about him, though, is he's not a true C. Defensively, he'll be a bit like Javale only he will try and be in position instead of going for blocks.

If I didn't get Davis, I would trade down for Zeller.

Wow, I think the Rasheed Wallace comparison is a major reach. Zeller doesn't have that type of range. He's got Darius Songaila type range (i.e. 18-20 ft) so while he can certainly pick and pop, he's not as valuable as someone who can hit the 3.

Secondly, it's a red flag to me that he was a poor rebounder up until his senior year. Why did he suddenly become a good one? Is his sudden success on the boards a product of being a 22 yr old man competing against 18 & 19 yr olds?

I also have concerns ability his ability to defend in the post. He's not going to have 6-9 stringbean Cs he can bully in college. He still needs to get stronger but as a polished, mature prospect, there's doubt to how much he can improve beyond that.

As I mentioned before, if were trying to choose the most ready NBA player after Davis for next season, Zeller may be in that argument. I don't think he's a bad prospect, but he's a role player. And he wouldn't be the first ACC player of the year to be only a role player on the next level.

To come out of this lottery with only role players or contributors is just unacceptable. We need legit difference makers not the next DeJuan Blair or Eric Montross.

[DCZards]

I know folks on this board don't think much of Austin Rivers but I'm convinced he's a Tier 3 player...tier 4 at worst. Most of the criticisms I've heard of Rivers have more to do with his immaturity...even selfishness...and other flaws that I believe he can and will grow out of. He is after all a pampered 19 year old.

Rivers has a great first step, an athletic arrogance that I like, is ultra competitive and has Doc's genes. Rivers will be a top 15 pick.

[Nivek]

Kevin, you need a catchy acronym for your data set. "My stuff says" doesn't have a good ring to it. Something like:

Predraft
Objective assessment by
Nivek/
Kevin

That way we can say "Crowder has a PONK score in the second teir", or even better "Harrison Barnes got totally PONK'd"

Don't know about PONK, but I kinda like the idea of giving it a name. I'll think about it. In my spreadsheet, the column containing the final rating is named SCORE.

[Nivek]

my only issue with the ponk sytem is that it doesn't into a account first step lateral agility scores and body weight per position.

Actually it does. The first step is contained in the quickness/agility/speed category. Weight is a consideration in the strength category.

[The Consiglieri]

Ford's chat is up, lots and lots of material, i could quote a ton of it, and probably would, so i just am giving the link rather than ruining page 98 of the thread.

Link:
http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/ ... -chad-ford

[Nivek]

Nice, I'm surprised Barnes made your list at all considering he has a horrible 2P%/TS% and a mediocore block/steal/rebounding indicators which seem like the most important NCAA to NBA stats. What's Leonard missing - Is his low blk numbers enough to drop him off the list despite the 2nd best 2P% behind Davis? I think he's much more athletic and physically gifted than his reb/blk/stl likely suggest. He's a top 5-6 physical talent in the draft IMO

I'll have to get back to you on this. I'm away from my spreadsheet, and I'm going on vacation for the next few days. Probably Monday.

[pancakes3]

1 - physical measurements shouldn't make/break draft evaluations. the various undersized pf's prove that time and time again as do undersize/underathletic guards like nash, deron, and haden.

2 - the thing with zeller being dominant with his grown man body is that he's doing it. drummond has a gown-man body and he's not doing much with it. hitching hopes of "development" in something as fundamental as "rebounding" is being way too optimistic.

3 - rivers has red flags. his FT% is terrible. his fg and 3p%'s are below average. he only really had 1 "great" game albeit against UNC, and has a <1 a:to ratio. i know there are reasons to like him, and in all likelihood he will be a top 15 pick based on name recognition and pedigree alone (both from his dad and from duke), but I just don't see him being a very good player.

[The Consiglieri]

I'd like a Drummond defender to please qualify what, exactly about his situation in college was so bad. Also, how was he poorly used? And thirdly, does the supposedly terrible situation and usage excuse the lack of motor?

I think there's a better shot he's out of the NBA in 5 years than an All-Star.

He played with chucker guards and in a system that didn't look to get him the ball at all. But he did have a limited skill set, so that's probably why he was rarely featured in the offense.

Im incredibly lazy and won't do much digging, but their coach was sanctioned, rumors of being in big time trouble potentially going forward, their coach had to take an indeterminate amount of time off due to health problems as well as what was previously mentioned, and as I already mentioned, Drummond was unclear on what he was going to do in terms of college until freaking august 26th, he could have returned to high school, but could also go to college (weird situation). Meaning while other players were committed and established with their schools anywhere from a year to five months earlier, he only set up with UConn as the college football season kicked off.

It was not a remotely normal and quality situation for a freshmen in any sense of the word. You are still right about him having motor issues and other major concerns but again this guy was considered the #1 prospect overall for the draft just eight months ago. He doesn't all of a sudden blow because he had a disappointing season, and to write him off, as so many have done, is basically insane to me. He was #1 for a reason. he could still be a bust, but there's a huge chance he could be a star as well, and he definitively has a higher ceiling than anyone in this draft not named Anthony Davis, and maybe even higher than him.

Would I take him at 1? Hell no? At 2? Probably not. At 3, I doubt it, at 4? Then i'd be thinking hard about him or a trade down, and I'd definitely be considering him or a trade down at 5.

[The Consiglieri]

I know folks on this board don't think much of Austin Rivers but I'm convinced he's a Tier 3 player...tier 4 at worst. Most of the criticisms I've heard of Rivers have more to do with his immaturity...even selfishness...and other flaws that I believe he can and will grow out of. He is after all a pampered 19 year old.

Rivers has a great first step, an athletic arrogance that I like, is ultra competitive and has Doc's genes. Rivers will be a top 15 pick.

Ford answered a Rivers question today and said there's a split between GM's on him, some absolutely love him, and have him at 5-7 on their boards, but a lot of others are a little more skeptical and have him in that 12-18 area.

[Dat2U]

Problem with Rivers isn't just the immaturity or selfishness, it's his performance. I might be generous to call his performance non-descript. I'm pretty sure he's got the worst PER of any prospect in the draft.

And it's not like he's got ideal size or he's an elite athlete. I'm not sure if he even has a position to defend at the next level.

If anyone needs to return to school, it's Rivers. I think he's got far more questions than answers regarding his future NBA prospects.

[Rafael122]

You would think Doc would have told him to stay in school at least 1 more year. It's not like Austin needs the money.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Zeller has a bit of Rasheed Wallace in his game. He is a stretch 4/5 who will be deadly in an NBA pick and pop offensively. He will be a tremendous finisher in a wide open NBA game. The thing about him, though, is he's not a true C. Defensively, he'll be a bit like Javale only he will try and be in position instead of going for blocks.

If I didn't get Davis, I would trade down for Zeller.

Wow, I think the Rasheed Wallace comparison is a major reach. Zeller doesn't have that type of range. He's got Darius Songaila type range (i.e. 18-20 ft) so while he can certainly pick and pop, he's not as valuable as someone who can hit the 3.

Secondly, it's a red flag to me that he was a poor rebounder up until his senior year. Why did he suddenly become a good one? Is his sudden success on the boards a product of being a 22 yr old man competing against 18 & 19 yr olds?

I also have concerns ability his ability to defend in the post. He's not going to have 6-9 stringbean Cs he can bully in college. He still needs to get stronger but as a polished, mature prospect, there's doubt to how much he can improve beyond that.

As I mentioned before, if were trying to choose the most ready NBA player after Davis for next season, Zeller may be in that argument. I don't think he's a bad prospect, but he's a role player. And he wouldn't be the first ACC player of the year to be only a role player on the next level.

To come out of this lottery with only role players or contributors is just unacceptable. We need legit difference makers not the next DeJuan Blair or Eric Montross.

Dat, Tyler Zeller averaged 7.2 rebounds in 28 minutes as a junior ... DX said Zeller was below average before his senior season, but 7.2 rebounds in 28 minutes translates to 9 rebounds over 35 minutes.

Tyler Zeller averaged 9.6 rebounds per 28 minutes as a senior. The bottom line is he was the single best rebounding C in the entire NCAA.

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/player ... ler-zeller

A guy who is considered a great rebounder, Arnett Moultrie, averaged 10.5 rebounds -- in 35 minutes. This season, Tyler rebounded at 12.0 rebounds over 35 minutes. (By comparison, Antawn Jamison averaged 10.5 rebounds over 33.1 minutes. Their database doesn't go back to Rasheed's draft year). John Henson is a terrific rebounder himself. (9.9 rebounds over 29.1 minutes) Henson's rebounds went down some as Zeller's rebounding went up this past season, compared to last. Zeller got better.

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/player ... t-moultrie
http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/player ... wn-jamison
http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/player ... ohn-henson

I will say again, Tyler Zeller is going to be a very good pro and he's going to be more than a role player. I think for a team that gets up and down the court he will be a big scorer in the NBA. He rebounds well and he runs the court well. At his height and with his mobility he will be a very good NBA player.

[jivelikenice]

Problem with Rivers isn't just the immaturity or selfishness, it's his performance. I might be generous to call his performance non-descript. I'm pretty sure he's got the worst PER of any prospect in the draft.

And it's not like he's got ideal size or he's an elite athlete. I'm not sure if he even has a position to defend at the next level.

If anyone needs to return to school, it's Rivers. I think he's got far more questions than answers regarding his future NBA prospects.

There's something about Rivers that makes me think he could be special. He may not be an elite athlete but he's a good athlete and more importantly he has a great first step. That's more important to me than other athletic attributes. The best 2 guards have out of this world first steps and get to the line because of that. I think Rivers can be the type of player who gets to the line 10 times a game and become a half court menace if he gets stronger and measure out as at a legit 6'4. I think most of us agree that we need a 2 or 3 who can shoot and be effective off the dribble. Out of the prospects in the draft, he might best fit that.

[WizarDynasty]

Well

my only issue with the ponk sytem is that it doesn't into a account first step lateral agility scores and body weight per position.

Actually it does. The first step is contained in the quickness/agility/speed category. Weight is a consideration in the strength category.

well the problem is that strength really has nothing to do with bulk.
A player can still move elite laterally at the shooting guard and at the same time weigh greater than 215lbs should be given megabonus points.
If a shooting guard weights over 215 pounds but also has an elite first step, that player should be given a huge bonus over a player who also has an elite first step but only weighs 200lbs.

It's alot harder to maintain a quick first step as your weight increases and shooting guard...my theory is having an elite first step and also at the same time maintaining a certain buik weights over 215lbs puts you into elite category related strictly to a shooting guard.
having bare minimum 215 body weight and also elite first step as a shooting guard boost you into lottery level area. almost none of the shooting guards or small forwards this year have both of these traits at the same time.
Since it is rare to find a shooting guard with an elite first step who also weighs more than 215lbs, a huge bonus points should be given to that player.
Austin River, while having an elite first step, would probably lose his quick first step if he was forced to carry a body frame that weighed more tnan 215lbs each night. For a human being who still posssess a first step at shooting guard above this body weight is an exceptional shooting guard ability. I would label perry jones a p/f because he showed no ability to play s/f consistently at the college level.
I think weighing over 215lbs and still having a quick first step is a requirement for a shooting guard to be projected as being elite.

[Nivek]

You're welcome to develop your own metric, if you're so inclined.

[Jay81]

anyone ready to tank for Noel or Shabazz next year?

[sashae]

[sashae]

Everybody Wants a Piece of Nerlens Noel

[MF23]

I see a lot of people don't like Rivers. I think a lot of people here are going to be wrong but I'm not going to be one of them. I think he'll be a good NBA player. He shouldn't be coming out but that's not going to stop him from doing what's necessary to become a good player.