2012 NBA Draft - Part III

[nate33]

Link to old thread

[Severn Hoos]

I'm extremely disappointed in the lack of blather so far.

[tontoz]

I was looking at Ford's chat yesterday and he was saying that PJIII views himself as a 3 and if a team plays him there it might work out. Interesting take.

I am not interested in picking him but i am definitely curious to see what happens with him.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Kevin Murphy is a 2/3 from Tennessee Tech who shoots the 3 very well. He led all scorers at Portsmouth yesterday.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Kev ... layerblog/

Though it is Murphy's ability to put the ball in the basket that has helped him catch the eye of NBA scouts, his size is also a significant plus as far as his upside as a pro is concerned. A 6'6 wing who lacks a degree of physical strength, but shows fluid athleticism operating on the offensive end, sports a big wingspan, and displays adequate lateral quickness defensively, Murphy has the size and physical tools to play his position at the NBA level –something we don't often see in prolific low-major scorers.

On the offensive end, Murphy's game is characterized by his extremely aggressive shot selection. Seeing a consistent steam of touches creating his own shot one-on-one, making plays in transition, and spotting-up in openings on the perimeter, Murphy constantly hunts his shot both on and off the ball. With jumpers accounting for almost 71% of his shot attempts, Murphy takes and makes some difficult shots from deep and midrange, connecting on 42.95% of his three-pointers and 40% of his jumpers in half court settings. More than a few of his deepest three-point attempts this season have come on the fast break, where Murphy shows no conscious in pulling up from beyond the arc running full speed whenever he sees a clogged lane in front of him. Sporting smooth shooting mechanics and a high release point, Murphy is a terrific catch-and-shoot threat who is just as good shooting the ball on the move from the mid-range as he is with his feet set from beyond the arc.

That is the type of player I would like the Wizards to have at SG.

[nate33]

I was looking at Ford's chat yesterday and he was saying that PJIII views himself as a 3 and if a team plays him there it might work out. Interesting take.

I am not interested in picking him but i am definitely curious to see what happens with him.

It's plausible that his college game has suffered because he has played out of position. Baylor plays him at PF and C because they don't have enough tall people, but maybe it's not his ideal position.

The workouts could be very important for him. If teams can play him at SF during the workouts and have him face other SF's, they should get a good idea if he has the skills to pull it off.

[jivelikenice]

Nate, you make a good point. I watched a couple of Baylor games after hearing PJIII being ripped and I saw a guy who was clearly out of position. The question is does he have the ball handling skills and the ability to create that's necessary to effectively playing the 3.

[verbal8]

Kevin Murphy is a 2/3 from Tennessee Tech who shoots the 3 very well. He led all scorers at Portsmouth yesterday.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Kev ... layerblog/

That is the type of player I would like the Wizards to have at SG.

I could see buying a mid to late 2nd to pick him. I think he would be a reach with the Wizards 2nd rounder. I think Darius Miller and Orlando Johnson could be good options for the Wizards 2nd round pick. If doesn't get drafted, it would be very smart to give him a training camp invite.

[pancakes3]

I'm extremely disappointed in the lack of blather so far.

it takes time to build up a lather to slather.

[dobrojim]

Kevin Murphy is a 2/3 from Tennessee Tech who shoots the 3 very well. He led all scorers at Portsmouth yesterday.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Kev ... layerblog/

That is the type of player I would like the Wizards to have at SG.

I could see buying a mid to late 2nd to pick him. I think he would be a reach with the Wizards 2nd rounder. I think Darius Miller and Orlando Johnson could be good options for the Wizards 2nd round pick. If doesn't get drafted, it would be very smart to give him a training camp invite.

we do have 2 seconds

[dobrojim]

now that it's a new thread I'll renew my take on Ty Zeller.
I'm with CCJ on this guy. He's produced (which Kev apparently likes too).
And reports are that he has a GREAT work ethic. He's got decent size
and a lot of tools to go with a high motor and good BBIQ. And his athleticism
is solid.

what's not to like?

if we get completely screwed and pick after AD, TRob, Beal, MKG are all
gone, I would not be unhappy taking Zeller.

[WizarDynasty]

in a post player, you want a guy with big hands, very strong lower body strength, at least a 9'2 standing reach and 7'2 or greater wingspan, a high motor, at lateral agility score below 11.50 seconds, along with a high basketball iq.

A shooting guard who weights above 215 and at the same has a lightening quick explosive first step definitely vaults him into lottery territory. Having a high basketball and the ability to finish in traffic, 6-9 or greater wingspan with, big hands, shoots the three ball, finish above the rim, and has lateral agility score well below 11 seconds into 10.5- to 10.7, high bbiq is top three candidate.

[The Consiglieri]

I'd go Drummond or trade down there, and if he's still available take him. I wouldn't be remotely satisfied with Zeller at 5 or 6 alone.

[dobrojim]

Ideally maybe we trade down and still get him AND something else.
That would REALLY make me happy. But ending up with him would
not be a bad outcome.

[Ed Wood]

Would it not be possible in that situation to dangle the opportunity to draft Harrison Barnes for Utah or potentially Portland and add something like Sullinger or Zeller as well as someone like Lillard with the second pick? That seems like a pretty decent consolation prize if things turn pear shaped during the lottery process. Add a couple of wing players in free agency and hopefully at least one solid selection with the two second rounders and that wouldn't be the worst off season. Just to show that I too can write names with slashes next to them:

Wall/Lillard
Green (Danny)/Crawford/Denmon
Green (Gerald)/Crowder/Singleton
Nene/Booker/Vesely
Seraphin/Zeller

Not so bad, really.

[Ruzious]

Would it not be possible in that situation to dangle the opportunity to draft Harrison Barnes for Utah or potentially Portland and add something like Sullinger or Zeller as well as someone like Lillard with the second pick? That seems like a pretty decent consolation prize if things turn pear shaped during the lottery process. Add a couple of wing players in free agency and hopefully at least one solid selection with the two second rounders and that wouldn't be the worst off season. Just to show that I too can write names with slashes next to them:

Wall/Lillard
Green (Danny)/Crawford/Denmon
Green (Gerald)/Crowder/Singleton
Nene/Booker/Vesely
Seraphin/Zeller

Not so bad, really.

Yeah, I think that's a reasonable possibility. And you save cap space / put off amnestying Blatche if you want - for another year.

[nate33]

in a post player, you want a guy with big hands, very strong lower body strength, at least a 9'2 standing reach and 7'2 or greater wingspan, a high motor, at lateral agility score below 11.50 seconds, along with a high basketball iq.

There are 31 players in the DX database drafted since 2000 that meet the 9-2, 7-2 and 11.50 physical specifications. Most of them are small forward types with a condor wingspan. If I try and sort for the guys with "a very strong lower body" by ignoring everyone less than 230 pounds, I get the following names:

DeMarcus Cousins
Darko Milicic
Dwight Howard
Cole Aldrich
Jeremy Tyler
Chris Richard
DeVon Hardin
Nene Hilario
Carlos Boozer
Greg Smith
Ekpe Udoh

So even though you posit ridiculously difficult-to-meet criteria, I still end up with a bunch of busts. If I ignore the guys that suck, I'm left with:

DeMarcus Cousins
Dwight Howard
Nene Hilario
Carlos Boozer

I think your criteria are a bit too stringent if it only comes up with 4 players in 12 years. It doesn't take a genius to identify that extremely rare freak of nature physical specimens with great intangibles, a high IQ and a great motor tend to pan out to be good basketball players.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Would it not be possible in that situation to dangle the opportunity to draft Harrison Barnes for Utah or potentially Portland and add something like Sullinger or Zeller as well as someone like Lillard with the second pick? That seems like a pretty decent consolation prize if things turn pear shaped during the lottery process. Add a couple of wing players in free agency and hopefully at least one solid selection with the two second rounders and that wouldn't be the worst off season. Just to show that I too can write names with slashes next to them:

Wall/Lillard
Green (Danny)/Crawford/Denmon
Green (Gerald)/Crowder/Singleton
Nene/Booker/Vesely
Seraphin/Zeller

Not so bad, really.

I would prefer this approach, Ed. Get two 1st round picks from Portland or Utah, instead of just one pick (not Davis).

I would be ecstatic if the Wizards got Lillard, Crowder, and Zeller. Like Nivek, I believe Crowder will be an impact player at SF. He could very well have a better rookie season than Thomas Robinson. Zeller is not a banger, but the Wizards already have two or three if you count Booker. What Zeller will do is finish in transition. He will rebound as well or better than the bigs on the team. He has a great midrange shot. Lillard is a tremendous three point shooter.

An alternative that I think would be better would be to draft Zeller and Crowder in round one and to draft Will Barton in round two. Height with rebounds at the two in Barton would be a plus. Crowder's range, rebounding, and toughness at three would be another plus. Finally, Zeller is going to have success in today's NBA. Guys like Koufas, Vucevic, Hawes, and Jason Smith are all contributing nicely. Zeller will, too.

[WizarDynasty]

in a post player, you want a guy with big hands, very strong lower body strength, at least a 9'2 standing reach and 7'2 or greater wingspan, a high motor, at lateral agility score below 11.50 seconds, along with a high basketball iq.

There are 31 players in the DX database drafted since 2000 that meet the 9-2, 7-2 and 11.50 physical specifications. Most of them are small forward types with a condor wingspan. If I try and sort for the guys with "a very strong lower body" by ignoring everyone less than 230 pounds, I get the following names:

DeMarcus Cousins
Darko Milicic
Dwight Howard
Cole Aldrich
Jeremy Tyler
Chris Richard
DeVon Hardin
Nene Hilario
Carlos Boozer
Greg Smith
Ekpe Udoh

So even though you posit ridiculously difficult-to-meet criteria, I still end up with a bunch of busts. If I ignore the guys that suck, I'm left with:

DeMarcus Cousins
Dwight Howard
Nene Hilario
Carlos Boozer

I think your criteria are a bit too stringent if it only comes up with 4 players in 12 years. It doesn't take a genius to identify that extremely rare freak of nature physical specimens with great intangibles, a high IQ and a great motor tend to pan out to be good basketball players.

i would add Kaman, Mullen, Gortat, and Oden, T. Gibson, E. Kanter. I think a new key measurable that wasn't taken as a standard less than 3 year ago is hand size. Hand size has a huge impact on a big's offensive game and having big hands can be measured before the draft.
A few borderline like chris bosh, If you are looking for a big worthy of top lottery selection who you project to be top 8 at his position, I think it's important that you set historic standard. The NFL uses historic measurement when grading a player. Cam Newton, the top pick was rated a 94 and the the two top picks this years Luck and JOnes are rated 99, and 97 respectively. Just because a player ranks favorably to his class doesn't mean he is an cut it against the cream of the crop top 8 players who are currently playing in their prime years and probably have another 5 years of high level performance.
If you selecting a raw project to develop, it's important that the raw project has necessary building blocks for the team drafting him to shape an mold. If those blocks are never there in the first place, you become losing franchise for decades and decades by selecting talent that doesn't project longterm to be dominant. Aka paul pierce has been dominant for a decade while his once running mate, A. Walker is in the dleague and about to retire. they are both nearly teh same age and at one point both were considered equal. the scout with the longterm view would have been able to foresee where as the short sighted scout would have deemed A. Walker untouchable yet all hte physical measurables where there to predict A. Walker's longterm destiny.

I think you draft the guy who you project to have the highest trade value in 3 years.

[jivelikenice]

I agree with the trade down approach outside of the top 3. I think Davis, Robinson, and MKG are must gets unless you get a ransom to move down. To move out of the top 3 I would have to get a player & a pick or a player plus 2 picks. I also wouldn't move too far down. Mid lottery at most in any trade down scenario.

[7-Day Dray]

I think a new key measurable that wasn't taken as a standard less than 3 year ago is hand size. Hand size has a huge impact on a big's offensive game and having big hands can be measured before the draft.

Reportedly Anthony Davis can't palm a basketball. Would you not draft him because of that?