What's Ibaka's and Harden's worth?

[theokie]

Wesbrook will be making about 16 million a year, Durant is getting 19 a year. So roughly 35 million of the Thunder's payroll is between those two players.

If OKC manages to resign both, how much will Ibaka and Harden get paid?

OKC can only offer 4 year deals for both. So if OKC wants to keep their big 4 together, they are probably going to have to pay both those guys 25 million per year combined to keep them (and amnesty Perk). That would put their salary at about 60 million just with 4 young players locked up through 2016. (Westbrook, Ibaka, and Harden would be locked up through 2017). I doubt they could pay them much more and be able to fill out a roster. Although who knows, considering those 4 players age and potential, it might not matter if they are playing with veteran minimum and rookie contracts, they'd still be competitive.
The owners probably won't mind going into the luxury tax, but I doubt they are going to want to dip into the double and triple tax levels.

So like 13-14 million for Harden, 11-12 million for Ibaka. Maybe they would take less in order to keep the core together I'm not really sure.


If they only get one or neither (unlikely in my opinion) what are their worths on the open market?

A lot of people have said Harden would get a max deal. I'm not convinced though, Harden is good but most teams that offer players who have never made an all-star team before a deal like that have come to regret it in the future.

I could see someone grossly overpaying Ibaka too.

[wiff]

A long time ago when Aubrey and Clay bought the Sonics they said they were committed to building a championship team. Well that costs money. They also said they were committed to keeping the team in Seattle.

Now I believed at the time that Clay was serious about a building a championship team. The keeping the team Seattle part.... well obviously he didn't hold up his end of the bargain. The jury is still out on building a championship team.

Let's be honest, legitimately competing for title cost money.

Let's look at some previous champs
2002 Lakers 52.9mil Overall 9th highest team salary
2003 Spurs 52.8mil 15th overall
2004 Pistons 52.9mil 13th
2005 Spurs 47.5mil 18th
2006 Heat 60+ mil 10th
2007 Spurs 65.6mil 6th
2008 Celtics 73.8mil 8th
2009 Lakers 80.7mil 5th
2010 Lakers 77.2mil 13th
2011 Mavs 86.3mil 3rd

Personally I think if OKC wants to legitimately compete for a title year in and year out they need to re-sign both Harden and Ibaka. If Presti can keep the four horse men together, title chasers will come to OKC just like they have flocked to San Antonio.

But that means Clay and Aubrey are going to have to pony up some dollars and embrace the luxury tax.

Personally I feel Ibaka is a more important piece than Harden even though Harden might have better offensive numbers. 6'10" shot blocking machines don't grow on trees. I know Harden is a very nice player but bigs are so much harder to come by than a guy who can get you 17pts. But ideally and really what is most critical to this teams success in general is to do whatever it takes to re-sign both of these guys. Serviceable big men will come to OKC for nothing if these four guys are in place. Both Payton and Malone went to LA to chase a title. They both played for the peanuts. I think Malone took the the vet minimum and Payton played for the LLE.

So Durant makes 17,548,838mil next year
Westbrook is going to see about 14.5mil next year

So thats 37.6mil between the two of them. So the only two other guys currently on the books at the time Harden's and Ibaka's pay raise will kick in is Collison and Thabo both combined at 6.5mil. Perkins will be Amnestied so I'm not worried about him at all. So you have about 44mil currently on the books, Let's just say you give them 22mil combined. So that's 66mil a couple rookie deals but the Thunder will be drafting way towards the bottom so it should be cheap. Some where around 70mil and fill out the rest with a bunch of vet min guys.

Should be in the neighborhood of the Celtics, Lakers, and Mavericks. If you want to compete, more often than not you need to spend. This team doesn't have a Tim Duncan, Pau Gasol or KG who can anchor the D and get you 25 pts. So this team is going to have to spread the wealth, literally.

Or Clay Bennett can come up with some piss poor excuse to not spend the money but I don't think he would lie, do you? After all OKC is a "Big League City" right?

[guille_4]

If they trade any of them it will be because they can't resign them due to money, therefore the only thing that makes sense are picks. Harden is worth a top 3 pick.

[sonictecture]

I'm always surprised when someone believes Ibaka is more important than Harden, except for you wiff. First love is a powerful force.

Let's assume that ownership is willing to pay the cost of keeping Harden and ibaka, my question is should they? Specifically do you lock yourself into the roster despite some of the existing weaknesses, hoping that they work themselves out with the experience of the players?

If Ibaka stays the same player he is now but is making $8M or more then he might not be easy to trade.

Harden is a clear resign for me, but I think you could downgrade from Ibaka to a Brandon Bass, Josh McRoberts, Taj Gibson level player who get paid between $3M-$5M and still be contenders.

The other question that is a part of the equation is Perkins. We're all hoping for some miraculous jump in play come the playoffs, but if that doesn't happen, how much longer do you give him to show more before you look for an upgrade?

[sonictecture]

If they trade any of them it will be because they can't resign them due to money, therefore the only thing that makes sense are picks. Harden is worth a top 3 pick.

This isn't quite true. I'll agree that the salary cap plays a role, but a top 3 pick gets a rookie contract at 3-4 years and around $5M per year. At that price you can also look at established players in that price range, with the advantage being that you are not developing a 19 year old player when your roster is trying to contend and you get a known quantity in a salary slot they are likely to stay within.

[wiff]

I'm always surprised when someone believes Ibaka is more important than Harden, except for you wiff. First love is a powerful force.

Well this comes from a decade of watching a fat Vin Baker, a couple of soft euros in Drobnjak and Radmanovic. SF's playing PF Ruben Patterson and guys with absolutely zero offense, Reggie Evans, Art Long. Let's not forget the immovable force Danny Fortson. And of course that's just the PF's not the Centers I could go on and on about the centers but how much self loathing can a guy take in a day?

Bigs are ten times harder to come by. Especially a big who is "great" at any one thing. Ibaka is a "great" shot blocker. If he was just ok at everything I can see letting him walk but he is Theo Ratliff recycled.

After all someone on this team has to play "D" right? Maybe I am over valuing Ibaka but it's not all about PPG to me. There really are two sides of the ball. And after watching the doughnut defense for a decade I can't go back to it.

Now I'd be open to trading Ibaka and parts for a guy like LMA or a younger Pau Gasol but those guys are never available and now that the team is in OKC it's even more unlikely they'd want to go play for the Thunder. Example "A" D Howard. If D Howard is truly all about winning rings he'd be open to re-signing in OKC. But that's the curse of a small market. Even when you are good, high profile players still don't want to play for you.

It's going to be really interesting once this crop of kids grow up and move on. That's when we will really see is Presti is a true magician or just an "illusionist".

[Krodis]

Ibaka is a great shot blocker, but I don't think he's a great defender.

[bbms]

Ibaka deserve a contract close to what Wilson Chandler got from Nuggets, butI think someone will overpay him.

Ellis is 11 mil /y, so I guess Harden deserves something like 12 or 13/y.

[wiff]

Ibaka deserve a contract close to what Wilson Chandler got from Nuggets, butI think someone will overpay him.

Ellis is 11 mil /y, so I guess Harden deserves something like 12 or 13/y.

I'm not sure what Chandler got. But here are what some bigs are making in the league.

Horford is making 12 mil. He gives the team 12pts and 7rebs, 2dimes, 1 theft and 1.3 blocks.

Tyrus Thomas is making 8mil. He gives the Cats 6pts, 4reb and 1.3blks

Boozer makes 13.5mil and it goes up from there. He gives the Bulls. 15pts, 8rebs, 1.8dimes, 1 theft and 0.4blks

But here are some bigs who have a similar EFF rating.

Bargs makes 9mil and it goes up a mil each year. He gives the Raps, 19.3pts, 5.9rebs, 2dimes, 0.5thefts, 0.5blks and ZERO "D"

Drew NotGooden makes 6.7mil and give the Bucks 14pt and 7rebs

Elton Brand is making 17mil and gives the Sixers 10 and 7 with 1.6blocks.

Kaman makes 14mil give the Hornets 13 and 8.

Scola makes about 8.5 and it goes up about 750k each year. He gives the Rockets 16 and 6.


I think someone will give Ibaka 10mil a year. He hasn't even sniffed his prime. Most bigs don't really hit their stride until they are about 25. The kid is 22yrs old. He has shown the ability to consistently hit the 15ft jumper. Yes he needs to develop a couple go to post moves but the kid is freakin 22yrs old.

He is leading the league in blocks per game and blocks per 48minutes. Barring injury the kid is going to go down as one of the best shot blockers of all time. I don't think if he went to the Bobcats he would give you an efficient 20 pts a game. But I think he could be more productive offensively if he got more touches. But with one ball and Westbrook, Harden and Durant you have to be happy with scraps. I don't think Serge is unhappy with the amount of looks he gets. I think he is content with his role. I am just saying if a team needed him to shoot more he could bump up his PPG a little bit.

I don't ever think he will get 10 rebs a game unless he average like 36minutes a night. Since he tries to block everything in sight it takes him out of positioning for a reb. That's when a guy like Perkins you would think would feast on boards. but for some reason he's not.

Maybe Presti can get him to drink the OKC kool-aide and lock him up long term for 8mil a year but I just don't see his agent going for that. And you never know when there is a team out there with cap space and desperate to make a splash to over pay for a guy like Serge. The dude is very marketable. He's a good looking guy, VERY YOUNG, leading the league in blocks. Which next to dunks are my personal favorite highlight to watch. Plus his name gives you about a million play on words you can do. Serge Protector, Power Serge, Iblockya yada yada yada.

And the dude can play. I will be shocked if he signs somewhere for less than 9mil a year.

If Presti can get them both re-signed for 22mil total I will be very impressed. Personally I think Ibaka is going to be 10mil and that leaves 12 mil left for Harden. But guys like Iggy, Rudy Gay and Monta who have similar EFF ratings are making
Iggy 13.5mil
Gay 15mil
Monta 11mil

So this comes back to OKC being a "BIG LEAGUE CITY" it's time to put up or shut up. Pay the money it takes to re-sign these guys. You think New York, Chicago, LA, Philly, Dallas or even Portland would let these guys walk over a few mil a year if they were in this situation? Ya neither do I.

Time to pay up BITCH! Lets see just how committed you are to building a championship team.

[akennedy13]

I personally would like to see OKC do everything possible to get the two. I feel like Harden in the next few years will be considered one of the best two guards in the NBA and definitely the best one under age 25. While I agree that Ibaka may not be a great defender right now and is just a shot blocker, his potentially is definitely off the charts.

The two are only 22 now so we still get one more season to see any improvement before a decision has to be made. But if I'm OKC I'm planning now to take the necessary steps to clear enough cap to be able to sign them (amnesty Perkins and somehow get rid of the Collison and Sefolosha contracts, which may be tough).

[ronnymac2]

You guys are going to have to pay dearly to keep Harden, because the perception is that Harden is the best young 2-guard in the league (and he's on a winning team as a sixth man, meaning his ego is't a killer, meaning his value goes higher since I can pair him with anybody). With Kobe and Wade advancing in basketball age, everything points to Harden getting paid a lot of money.

I honestly think somebody will offer him more than $12 million per year.

[Narf]

I was just thinking about this on the T-Wolves board and figured I'd see what you thought about a trade. This is as much a cost saving move for OKC as anything, I just can't see you locking into a $75 mil a year salary.

OKC out:
Harden and Perkins
MIN out:
Pekovic, D Williams, and Wes Johnson

It seems that Harden is not worth a max deal for OKC, but probably is for Minnesota. Adding Perkin's (IMHO) overpaid salary + Harden's soon to be very high salary for players that fit very well on OKC makes sense for both teams. Pekovic is a beast on the offensive glass and morphed into a top 5 post scorer this year, but not a help defender. Williams is a talented offensive player who's still figuring it out and cheap for a few years....but unfortunately for the Wolves Williams is a PF who can play spot minutes at SF, not a starting SF. Bad fit. And Johnson is just a throw in as a defensive wing. Feel free to take Webster and/or a backup PG if you'd like. We've got bench pieces to spare. Maybe add in Aldridge for Randolph, as they both seem to need a change of scenery?

OKC
Pekovic/Ibaka/Aldridge
Ibaka/D. Williams/Collison
Durant/D.Williams/Haywood?
Sefolosha/Johnson? Webster? Ellington? Neither?
Westbrook/Fisher or Barea?/Maynor

Minny

Perkins/???/Love
Love/Tolliver/Beasley
???/Beasley
Harden/Lee/Ellington
Rubio/Ridnour/Lee

We're not as far along as you, so we'll have a couple holes no matter what. But we're on the right path and I have a mancrush on Harden as a #2 scorer with Rubio setting him up.

Many wolves fans thought this was too much to give up for Harden, especially since he's about to make $12+ mil a year. I figured I'd see what you guys thought.

[Narf]

As for Ibaka, I think he's going to get a DeAndre Jordan type contract (4 years, $42.7 mil). Maybe 4 years, $46 mil for Ibaka? Just my guess of his market value.

[Jase]

Harden is going to get the max, or close to it. Aside from the aging Bryant and Wade, Harden is arguably the best SG in the game. You know that some team (WAS and POR come to mind) is going to offer him much more than he should get paid. I really hopes he stays in OKC.

[SparksFly87]

Iguodala,Turner for Harden resigned max and Perkins.

[wiff]

I'm always surprised when someone believes Ibaka is more important than Harden, except for you wiff. First love is a powerful force.

Well looks like I'm not the only guy who feels this way.

http://basketball.realgm.com/article/22 ... he_Thunder

While Harden has much better statistics, Ibaka is a more important piece. A championship team needs length and athleticism at the rim, and there’s no one else on their roster who can replace him.

Harden, in contrast, is a luxury. He’s the best passer of their three young perimeter stars, but having that many ball dominant players is a bit of a zero-sum game, as there’s only one basketball to go around. Giving him the ball at the end of games takes it out of the hands of Durant and Westbrook. The Thunder didn’t invest $170 million in their two All-NBA players to turn them into decoys.

Read more: http://basketball.realgm.com/article/22 ... z1rb5OVCtE

[Sheeeeed]

How would you guys feel about a Stuckey/Harden swap with a 2013 draft pick, and Daye/Singler going along with Stuckey?

[sonictecture]

I'm always surprised when someone believes Ibaka is more important than Harden, except for you wiff. First love is a powerful force.

Well looks like I'm not the only guy who feels this way.

http://basketball.realgm.com/article/22 ... he_Thunder

While Harden has much better statistics, Ibaka is a more important piece. A championship team needs length and athleticism at the rim, and there’s no one else on their roster who can replace him.

Harden, in contrast, is a luxury. He’s the best passer of their three young perimeter stars, but having that many ball dominant players is a bit of a zero-sum game, as there’s only one basketball to go around. Giving him the ball at the end of games takes it out of the hands of Durant and Westbrook. The Thunder didn’t invest $170 million in their two All-NBA players to turn them into decoys.

Read more: http://basketball.realgm.com/article/22 ... z1rb5OVCtE

I read this article and was surprised at the opinions expressed and the angle taken. I almost thought there had to be another agenda than what is best for the Thunder.

The article seeks to minimize the contributions of Harden while exaggerating the contributions of Ibaka, stating that Ibaka is a critical ingredient to a championship team and there are no other players on the roster to replace him and Harden is merely a statistical anomaly and a roster luxury that duplicates and minimizes Durant and Westbrook.

In my view it is Harden who represents the need and Ibaka who represents the luxury. Harden is the glue between Durant and Westbrook, he the element that makes the Thunder so difficult to guard despite a simplistic offense scheme. Durant and Westbrook don't become decoys when Harden is in the game, because they can all play off the ball. Harden allows the team to maximize mismatches an overwhelm teams with talent, a dynamic that should only approve as the trio continues to play together. Take Harden away from the team right now and you have Sefolosha, Cook, Fisher & Jackson to try and replace what Harden brings.

Ibaka is the luxury, the player who has one great skill, shot blocking and brings inconsistency to the rest of his game. Ibaka struggles defending players on the perimeter, he struggles in pick and roll defense and he struggles to rebound consistently. Ibaka has a pretty good mid range jumper, but it is an offensive weapon that has to be created by others, where Harden creates his own offense and for others. If Ibaka away and the team has better options in Perkins, Collison, Aldrich and Mohammad to fill in for what Ibaka brings. None of them protect the rim as well as Ibaka, but the fall off isn't nearly as far as Harden to replacements.

Thinking long term, every team in the league wants Harden as a star to build around, every team and fans of team identifies him as a critical piece. The list of teams wanting to pry Ibaka away is much shorter, because Ibaka is a role player and role players are more easily replaced.

[wiff]

None of them protect the rim as well as Ibaka, but the fall off isn't nearly as far as Harden to replacements.

Thinking long term, every team in the league wants Harden as a star to build around, every team and fans of team identifies him as a critical piece. The list of teams wanting to pry Ibaka away is much shorter, because Ibaka is a role player and role players are more easily replaced.

Well Ibaka's role is a much more important one to this team than Hardens. As good as Harden is this team needs Ibaka more than they need Harden if they want to challenge for a ring.

Harden is awesome no doubt but how many guys can get you 17pts a game? Heck Flip Murray could get you 17pts a game. What Ibaka does is much tougher to find.

I guess time will tell on who is right with this one. My guess is that it's me. It's just so much tougher to find bigs that are worth a damn. Ibaka is 22 years old, bigs don't really sniff a prime until they are around 25. For wing players it's 22 or 23.

Shear numbers say I'm right on this one. How many guys on the planet are 6'5" with a 40" vert?

Now how many 6'10" guys are on the planet with a 40" vert.

Harden is nice but Ibaka is tougher to replace.

Ibaka will be cheaper too.

[sonictecture]

I think you're confusing what you believing Ibaka could be with what he has shown himself to be at this point. That is a dangerous risk. If Ibaka stays the same player he only fills some of the categories this team would need at the position and you've traded away a serious talent in Harden in the belief Ibaka was going to be more.

I don't think Ibaka is nearly as unique as you want him to be. If he was simply a better all around defender and rebounder, I might agree with you, but he's not and I wouldn't be willing to gamble Harden away in the hopes that he gets there.

Ibaka should be cheaper than Harden as he's not anywhere near as talented and doesn't impact the game to the same degree. A cheaper Ibaka means a less talented team overall, with the end result being that you try and fill in the talent level with a lower priced player an never reach the impact Harden had. Any team that has traded away a premier player and filled the hole with two lower priced players at the same price can tell your formula is a failure.

Maybe Presti can keep the team together and afford both, but if he can't my opinion is he keeps Harden.