The Tank Watch has expired. Time to cheer to win again!

[Severn Hoos]

not sure about this but didn't we beat NO in our only meeting this year
which means no coin toss, they win the tiebreaker?

There is no tiebreaker in the lottery. Ties are always determined by coin toss.

True, with a caveat. If two teams tie they split the odds. For example, if 2nd worst record gives a 19.9% chance at the top pick, and 3rd worst gets a 15.6%, when two teams tie for the 2nd worst record, they add the two together and divide by 2.

Since in this example, it comes to an odd number, the coin flip determines who ill get a 17.8% chance and who will get a 17.7% chance.

But far more importantly, the winner of the coin flip moves into the 2nd slot. So, if they both miss the top 3 entirely, the winner of the coin flip picks 5th, while the loser picks 6th.

[hands11]

not sure about this but didn't we beat NO in our only meeting this year
which means no coin toss, they win the tiebreaker?

There is no tiebreaker in the lottery. Ties are always determined by coin toss.

I forget, doesn't head to head, conference play and division wins come before a coin toss ?

Wiki says.

In the event that teams finish with the same record, each tied team receives the average of the total number of combinations for the positions that they occupy. In 2007, the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Portland Trail Blazers tied for the sixth worst record. The average of the 6th and 7th positions in the lottery was taken, resulting in each team getting 53 combinations (the average of 63 and 43). Should the average number not be an integer, a coin flip is then used to determine which team or teams receive the extra combination(s). The result of the coin flip is also used to determine who receives the earlier pick in the event that neither of the tied teams wins one of the first three picks via the lottery.

[hands11]

The Wizards play Charlotte at home, nate. The Wizards play Cleveland twice. They have Milwaukee at home. The final game against Miami could be a meaningless game for the Heat if they're not going to catch Chicago and they rest their stars for the playoffs. Of those 5 games, I foresee no less than 3 wins.

I just disagree with the confidence that the Wizards will win "no less than 3 games". I think 3 games is possible, but it's probably pushing the upside a bit. The only guaranteed win is the one against Charlotte. Cleveland at home is a probable win. There are 3 other conceivably winnable games (@ Cleveland, vs Milwaukee, vs Miami) but I think we're underdogs in all three games.

The long nightmare of worrying if we can lose enough is almost over. I really really hope this is the last year we have to worry about this for a long while. Its just to hard on my head. Can we lose enough is antithetical to my love of following my basketball team.

I want them to win every game but I don't want all this suffering to be about nothing. But I also want to see the best team we have today. I want to be the spoiler. I want them to beat Miami every time they play them. And I want them to develop and win as much as they should to reflect how good they are and how go Randy is as a coach.

This really sucks.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I'm through worrying. I don't think it matters to finish 2nd or 3rd worst. I won't even mind fourth worst because in the past few years a stretch went 6th, 5th, 6th as for winners of the lottery.

If the Wizards did the unimaginable and closed very strong and finished 4th worst (it's not happening) I still could see them having just as good a shot. Not by the odds, but what I think of as the law of averages.

As far as I'm concerned, I want to see the Wizards play good basketball the rest of the way.

[closg00]

Portland could join the tankings, they have shut-down LA and all of their remaining games (except against SAC) appear to be against playoff contenders.

[nate33]

I'm through worrying. I don't think it matters to finish 2nd or 3rd worst. I won't even mind fourth worst because in the past few years a stretch went 6th, 5th, 6th as for winners of the lottery.

If the Wizards did the unimaginable and closed very strong and finished 4th worst (it's not happening) I still could see them having just as good a shot. Not by the odds, but what I think of as the law of averages.

As far as I'm concerned, I want to see the Wizards play good basketball the rest of the way.

It would be nice if Washington whipped NY's butt. I'm so sick of the pro-NY bias of ESPN and the basketball media in general. If we beat NY and Seraphin has a big game, the general NBA world might stand up and take notice.

[sashae]

I'm probably going to the Knicks game tomorrow (I'm holding out to see if StubHub prices go down further.) If I do, I want them to win goddamnit.

[verbal8]

Portland could join the tankings, they have shut-down LA and all of their remaining games (except against SAC) appear to be against playoff contenders.

I don't think Portland will really be tanking. They are out of the play-off race, but they can't really catch anyone by tanking. They are tied with Milwaukee who presumably does better chasing the 8th seed in the East. They can't really catch Minny(4 games) or Detroit(6 games). The remaining games may be a bit of a try-out, but I don't see a deliberate strategy to lose games.

[sashae]

Why am I not in DC. The cheapest close-to-floor seats (face, $280) are like $200 at the Garden. Stupid MSG.

[Jay81]

we need to keep losing and guarantee at least a top 5 pick so we can get

A Davis
MKG
Beal
Drummond
Robinson

seems to be a gap between the top 5 and the the 6-10?

[dobrojim]

I'm through worrying. I don't think it matters to finish 2nd or 3rd worst. I won't even mind fourth worst because in the past few years a stretch went 6th, 5th, 6th as for winners of the lottery.

If the Wizards did the unimaginable and closed very strong and finished 4th worst (it's not happening) I still could see them having just as good a shot. Not by the odds, but what I think of as the law of averages.

As far as I'm concerned, I want to see the Wizards play good basketball the rest of the way.

you understand that just because slot 3 or 4 or whatever has not won in a while that
the odds somehow change? The odds for the slot are the odds for the slot.
Past 'performance' is irrelevant.

The last couple weeks of the season are going to interesting. There are a lot of
teams closely packed in the standings.

+ if I understand correctly, when we play MIA on the last game of the season
that MIA might be motivated because of a tie with a western conf team for
home court in the Finals. There are 2 WC teams that are currently in close
contention for that with MIA. I wouldn't be surprised to see nene and book
play in that final game. They'll have the whole offseason to rest.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I'm through worrying. I don't think it matters to finish 2nd or 3rd worst. I won't even mind fourth worst because in the past few years a stretch went 6th, 5th, 6th as for winners of the lottery.

If the Wizards did the unimaginable and closed very strong and finished 4th worst (it's not happening) I still could see them having just as good a shot. Not by the odds, but what I think of as the law of averages.

As far as I'm concerned, I want to see the Wizards play good basketball the rest of the way.

It would be nice if Washington whipped NY's butt. I'm so sick of the pro-NY bias of ESPN and the basketball media in general. If we beat NY and Seraphin has a big game, the general NBA world might stand up and take notice.

nate, in addition to that, the Wizards would have their first 3-game win streak of the season.

It would be a nice statement game if the Wizards win.

[closg00]

The Knicks are 8-0 at MSG since Woodson took over and they can put-up some points. The tank will roll again tonight fellas.

[dobrojim]

we might need to avert our eyes?

[7-Day Dray]

Eric Gordon FTW!

[montestewart]

Eric Gordon FTW!

eight straight unanswered point from the other EG

[Jay81]

I'd like to have Eric Gordon as a wizard next year with Anthony Davis. Gordon is actually helping us get more ping pong balls

[Jay81]

Great tank night..raptors nets hornets win

[hands11]

NO takes down the Jazz

http://scores.espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=320413003

Wiz have a 3 game cushion.

[jangles86]

Wizards run home is Cleveland X2 Miami X2 Chicago, Milwaukee, Charlotte
I see us winning 2, which would take us to 16-49

Hornets run home
Memphis X2, Houstan X2, Charlotte, Clippers, Warriors
I see them winning 2, which gives them 19-46.


19.9% CHANCE OF ANTHONY DAVIS
Add to that the second worst record is due to win it.....(although so is the worst )

In theory we have 19.9% chance of making the playoffs next season