bballcool34 wrote:SideshowBob wrote:http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1163399
Lebron's got a career playoff 4th quarter average of 9 points per game, which is the second highest of all time after Jordan. 31.8% of his playoff points have come in the 4th quarter or OT. He's only been under 7.0 points per game in two series, and under 5 points per game once, with 5.6 against Philadelphia last year and 3.0 against Dallas last year. In his first Finals appearance, he averaged 9.8 per game, despite only averaging 22 for the series, with each game being close.
The chances of him ever being that awful again are very low.
If your position is, understandably, that Lebron has lost a good deal of athleticism/quickness, and that it shows in the half court(which it does), then shouldn't it be MORE likely that he has more of these performances because he can't just rely on driving by everyone.
In that context, doesn't the career average seem kind of moot?
That is unless he shoots the ball well and with confidence/balance (as he did in 2 series last year).
It is indeed my position, but even holding that theory in mind, I can't assume that it's 100% conclusive that he's going to have many sustained poor 4th quarter performances in the playoffs, particularly when his two best series last year (9.4 ppg in both) came against the top defensive teams he faced. His struggles in the Dallas series, IMO, were unrelated to the athletic dropoff issue, and this year's playoffs may give me evidence that would support that or disprove that. We'll have to see.
On the other hand, I also cannot ignore that his two weakest fourth quarter series of 5.6 ppg and 3.0 ppg both came last year, so yes, to that extent, it may be moot to bring up career averages. Again, we'll wait and see.