2012 NBA Draft - Part III

[Knighthonor]

Question:

Since wizards are at 15 player cap, how will they make room for the draft?

How many draft options/picks will the wizards get in June?


Could this suggest a future major roster dump?

[nate33]

Technically, you can draft whomever you want no matter what your roster size. The problem comes when you actually try and sign your draft picks.

In the Wizards' case, there aren't any problems. The following players will be under contract when it's time to sign our draft picks (under the likely assumption that we buy out Lewis):

Nene
Blatche
Wall
Vesely
Seraphin
Booker
Crawford
Mack*

That's it. Just 8 players. And Mack's contract isn't guaranteed so we could choose to cut him if some other backup PG in training camp looks to be better.

We can add 3 draft picks and 3 free agents (hopefully including Cartier Martin and James Singleton) and still leave ourselves room for one more mid-season acquisition.

[Ruzious]

If the 2010 NBA draft happened today...i wonder if Wall would still go #1 or #2 behind Cousins. Serphain would be a top 6-7 pick

I think John Wall would be a top 5 or 10 pick in this draft.

It's one thing to say 4 to 9 players in this draft will be better than Wall, and it's a very different thing to say he would be picked from 5 to 10 in this draft. There's virtually no chance he would go past #2 in this draft - no matter who picks.

[Nivek]

If Wall was in this year's draft, I'd have him ranked in the top 5 -- in that 2nd tier with Crowder and MKG. His draft year was actually on the weak side for top prospects. He was my top rated prospect that year, and his final rating would rank in the top 5 most years. But, his final rating was on the low side for a #1 pick. And, kind of a "warning" if you will, was that about a quarter of his final rating came from his physical attributes. I have a similar concern about MKG, but maybe moreso because (in my system), 35% of MKG's rating is physical attributes.

None of this is to suggest that Wall isn't going to be a really good player. However, he wasn't a truly elite prospect like Davis or some of the other greats. He can become an elite player if he works hard enough on the right things.

[Nivek]

Nice, I'm surprised Barnes made your list at all considering he has a horrible 2P%/TS% and a mediocore block/steal/rebounding indicators which seem like the most important NCAA to NBA stats. What's Leonard missing - Is his low blk numbers enough to drop him off the list despite the 2nd best 2P% behind Davis? I think he's much more athletic and physically gifted than his reb/blk/stl likely suggest. He's a top 5-6 physical talent in the draft IMO

On Barnes, he's getting a boost for his athletic tools -- agility and leaping. Also, my system likes that he shoots the 3 pretty well and he gets to the FT line frequently. His offensive efficiency is subpar, his rebounding is below average but not awful, and his 2pt percentage is worrisome. I could see him dropping as I get more information in about athleticism. 19% of his rating is the physical attributes. If I drop those to "average" he'd drop from a late 1st/early 2nd score to a late 2nd.

On Meyers, I think he could be a decent pro. I have him as an early 2nd round pick. His physical tools are good (accounting for almost 30% of his rating in my system), but his production is pretty average for a center. He's only a sophomore so I could see him getting drafted higher than I have him rated. That said, I think he's a project pick. The way the NBA makes their picks, he'd probably be smart to come out and go in the top 10-15 or wherever. My feeling is that if he goes back to school for another year (or two), he could probably make a Withey-like leap in production and end up being a top 10 pick.

[truwizfan4evr]

I will put a friendly wager down with you that within 3 years there will be at least 5 players from this draft who are CLEARLY better players than John Wall, truwizfan4evr. A couple of them will be guards, too.

CCj. Are you serous? John Wall would be a sure first or second pick in this year draft. I don't know why you hate on John wall so much he is not bad as you make him out to be. He stills put up good numbers. Its not all the kid fault . A lot of its on the front office and the coaches. Wall is a future all star. Soon as are team become decent he will make the all star team. With training camp and hopefully get a proven coach wall will start playing better.

[The Consiglieri]

Tell you what, Consiglieri. Track the careers of Davis, Robinson, Kidd Gilchrist, Beal, Tony Mitchell, Damian Lillard over time.

Why do you think I haven't joined the tank party yet?

Because it's so important to me to lock in, without a doubt, a top 5 pick, that I'm not counting it, till its officially locked in. The interesting twist here btw, is why not track how Wall's career will look linked with Davis, or to a lesser extent with Robinson, Kidd-Gilchrist, or Beal (the other guys are speculative junk bonds to me, high upside, high down side), how different will Wall's play if he has a smart big with an outstanding BBIQ to go with outrageous athleticsm? What about him playing with a 2 that makes great decisions, showcases great judgment, and can help him on the inside and the outside? What about Kidd Gilchrist and his energy, BBIQ, highly motivated, athletic approach? Or alongside, FINALLY, a consistent option in Robinson?

Imagine Wall w/teammates who aren't idiots, rooks, terrible shooters? I would definitely share your concerns with Wall's shooting, but I can't help but wonder how impressive Wall's assist numbers would be if he had Paul's, Rondo's,Rose's, Westbrooks (etc) teammates?

[truwizfan4evr]

Tell you what, Consiglieri. Track the careers of Davis, Robinson, Kidd Gilchrist, Beal, Tony Mitchell, Damian Lillard over time.

Why do you think I haven't joined the tank party yet?

Because it's so important to me to lock in, without a doubt, a top 5 pick, that I'm not counting it, till its officially locked in. The interesting twist here btw, is why not track how Wall's career will look linked with Davis, or to a lesser extent with Robinson, Kidd-Gilchrist, or Beal (the other guys are speculative junk bonds to me, high upside, high down side), how different will Wall's play if he has a smart big with an outstanding BBIQ to go with outrageous athleticsm? What about him playing with a 2 that makes great decisions, showcases great judgment, and can help him on the inside and the outside? What about Kidd Gilchrist and his energy, BBIQ, highly motivated, athletic approach? Or alongside, FINALLY, a consistent option in Robinson?

Imagine Wall w/teammates who aren't idiots, rooks, terrible shooters? I would definitely share your concerns with Wall's shooting, but I can't help but wonder how impressive Wall's assist numbers would be if he had Paul's, Rondo's,Rose's, Westbrooks (etc) teammates?

I agree with you on that. If John Wall had Rondo,Rose's,Paul, and Westbrooks teammates he would be just as good as them guys.

[DCZards]

I agree with ccj when he says that Wall may be a great athlete but he's not a great b'ball player, and that Wall has flaws in his game, most notably shooting. But ccj seems to look at Wall as a finished product rather than a 21 year old with unreal physical talent and the potential to get a whole lot better. I don't know anything about Damian Lillard but I'm REAL happy we got JW.

Did you guys read the article about Beal in the RealGM headlines above? He's sounding more and more like the guy I want as Wall's running mate if the Zards don't get the #1 pick.

[Nivek]

Someone asked me to run Morris Almond through my rating system. For his senior year, I had him as a late 2nd round pick -- about the same level as Nick Young and Adam Morrison. In Almond's case, his offensive efficiency was only about average, his 2pt percentage was bad, and he had a high number of turnovers and fouls. Plus, he played on teams that were mediocre against a weak schedule. He can shoot the ball, though.

[Zonkerbl]

Tell you what, Consiglieri. Track the careers of Davis, Robinson, Kidd Gilchrist, Beal, Tony Mitchell, Damian Lillard over time.

Why do you think I haven't joined the tank party yet?

Because it's so important to me to lock in, without a doubt, a top 5 pick, that I'm not counting it, till its officially locked in. The interesting twist here btw, is why not track how Wall's career will look linked with Davis, or to a lesser extent with Robinson, Kidd-Gilchrist, or Beal (the other guys are speculative junk bonds to me, high upside, high down side), how different will Wall's play if he has a smart big with an outstanding BBIQ to go with outrageous athleticsm? What about him playing with a 2 that makes great decisions, showcases great judgment, and can help him on the inside and the outside? What about Kidd Gilchrist and his energy, BBIQ, highly motivated, athletic approach? Or alongside, FINALLY, a consistent option in Robinson?

Imagine Wall w/teammates who aren't idiots, rooks, terrible shooters? I would definitely share your concerns with Wall's shooting, but I can't help but wonder how impressive Wall's assist numbers would be if he had Paul's, Rondo's,Rose's, Westbrooks (etc) teammates?

We did this exercise over on Bullets Forever. At the time the wizards were making 45% of their assisted shot opportunities from Wall (Wall passes them the ball and if they make the shot, it's an assist). The league average is 50%. Rondo's teammates make their assist opportunities 55% of the time. Basically if Wall's teammates didn't suck so much he'd be averaging about one extra assist per game, which would vault him ahead of Ricky Rubio and that's about it.

[nate33]

Did you guys read the article about Beal in the RealGM headlines above? He's sounding more and more like the guy I want as Wall's running mate if the Zards don't get the #1 pick.

Every time I see Beal, I notice that he has a small head, a short neck, long arms, and his arms are mounted way high up on his frame. I think he is going to have a very favorable standing reach relative to his height.

[closg00]

The WNBA draft is on live now....but nobody knows/cares.

The Mystics picked LaSondra Barrett with their 1st pick.

[The Consiglieri]

Tell you what, Consiglieri. Track the careers of Davis, Robinson, Kidd Gilchrist, Beal, Tony Mitchell, Damian Lillard over time.

Why do you think I haven't joined the tank party yet?

Because it's so important to me to lock in, without a doubt, a top 5 pick, that I'm not counting it, till its officially locked in. The interesting twist here btw, is why not track how Wall's career will look linked with Davis, or to a lesser extent with Robinson, Kidd-Gilchrist, or Beal (the other guys are speculative junk bonds to me, high upside, high down side), how different will Wall's play if he has a smart big with an outstanding BBIQ to go with outrageous athleticsm? What about him playing with a 2 that makes great decisions, showcases great judgment, and can help him on the inside and the outside? What about Kidd Gilchrist and his energy, BBIQ, highly motivated, athletic approach? Or alongside, FINALLY, a consistent option in Robinson?

Imagine Wall w/teammates who aren't idiots, rooks, terrible shooters? I would definitely share your concerns with Wall's shooting, but I can't help but wonder how impressive Wall's assist numbers would be if he had Paul's, Rondo's,Rose's, Westbrooks (etc) teammates?

We did this exercise over on Bullets Forever. At the time the wizards were making 45% of their assisted shot opportunities from Wall (Wall passes them the ball and if they make the shot, it's an assist). The league average is 50%. Rondo's teammates make their assist opportunities 55% of the time. Basically if Wall's teammates didn't suck so much he'd be averaging about one extra assist per game, which would vault him ahead of Ricky Rubio and that's about it.

"So much depends
Upon

A Wall
Assist

Not turned over by
Andray Blatche

or the listless boulez
since traded"

[WizarDynasty]

Did you guys read the article about Beal in the RealGM headlines above? He's sounding more and more like the guy I want as Wall's running mate if the Zards don't get the #1 pick.

Every time I see Beal, I notice that he has a small head, a short neck, long arms, and his arms are mounted way high up on his frame. I think he is going to have a very favorable standing reach relative to his height.

the number one most important rating for a shooting guard is does he have an explosive first step

The number two most important rzting for a shooting guard is does he have the bulk to absorb contact and still maintain balance while driving to the basket after using his quick first step. Usually you need to weigh at least 215lbs in todays nba--(not the old nba of Jordan's Era)

Number three, can that player shoot the nba three ball once a defender becomes afraid of getting beat by his quick first step.


Why is that most people are not comparing Bradley Beal to Randy Foye? It looks like Foye had a much more explosive first step and played against stronger competition. Clearly having an explosive first step is what pushed Foye into the lottery?
I never really watched alot of Foye during college years so is accurate to say Bradley Beal is Randy Foye without the quick first step and ball handling?

Looking back at draftexpress measurement that biggest redflag about randy foye was that he a standing reach of 8'1. That is really really bad meaning since average standing reach for playoff shooting guard is 8'6 and means that randy has to jump 5inches just to have an equal chance at getting to the ball as someone who has an 8'6 standing reach and play shooting guard and also means that you have to subtract 5 inches from his vertical jump stats to evaluate him fairly to the prototype shooting guards. He had outstanding footspeed at 10.50 and excellent bulk at 212. Where there any reports that Foye had knee problems in college? We all knew that B. Roy had knee problems coming into the league but it looks like Foye has never been dominant at getting Free Attempts and his hightest total was in third season where had 270 free throw attempts. Maybe my theory of lightening quick first step and bulk can predict success for a shooting guard.
Or it could be that the combination of a poor standing reach 8'1 and poor wingspan 6'6 ultimately cancels out a shooting guard explosive first step and 215lb bulk need for finishing at the rim.
Eric Gordon has 8'3 standing reach which gives him 2 additional inches over Foye each time he jumps in the lane and he also has 6'10 wingspan allowing him to extend the ball a couple inches further away from his body. Also Eric gordon was able to keep an addition 10lbs of bulk on his body and still mantain and explosive first step allowing him his most of 348 Free throw attempts in his third season.
But neigher of these players comes as close to dwade in his second year of getting to the line 762 attempts
brandon Roy 6-6 416 Free throw attempts standing reach--8'5 or James harden standing reach 8'7 with 380 Free throw attempts.

Catch and shoot guards are ok when their athleticism is gone but a shooting guard needs to be able to free throw line at will when the offense stagnates. I don't like the idea of shooting guard not being able to get the free throw line and will and not being a strong finisher at the rim. So being able to get to rim for FTA and the ability to knock down the three ball are the primary jobs of a shooting guard. Nick could finish strong at the rim because he didn't have bulk only weight 205. Crawford does have a quick first step and struggles to get by his man to even get to the free throw line. Wall has a quick first step is decent at finishing at the rim but can't hit a three point shot so people can sag off him and help out on others.
We need a complete shooting guard who first and foremost can do three things--explosive first step, finish at rim strong--usually you need a 8'5 or better standing reach and 215 bulk, and can also knock down the three ball.

[Nivek]

Just added fabled Bullets draft pick Kenny Green to the database -- as a sophomore, I would have rated him as a borderline 2nd round pick (in a 60-pick draft). Karl Malone would have rated as a high 2nd rounder in my stuff. He's a guy who got a lot better after he arrived in the NBA.

[nate33]

Did you guys read the article about Beal in the RealGM headlines above? He's sounding more and more like the guy I want as Wall's running mate if the Zards don't get the #1 pick.

Every time I see Beal, I notice that he has a small head, a short neck, long arms, and his arms are mounted way high up on his frame. I think he is going to have a very favorable standing reach relative to his height.

the number one most important rating for a shooting guard is does he have an explosive first step

The number two most important rzting for a shooting guard is does he have the bulk to absorb contact and still maintain balance while driving to the basket after using his quick first step. Usually you need to weigh at least 215lbs in todays nba--(not the old nba of Jordan's Era)

Number three, can that player shoot the nba three ball once a defender becomes afraid of getting beat by his quick first step.


Why is that most people are not comparing Bradley Beal to Randy Foye? It looks like Foye had a much more explosive first step and played against stronger competition. Clearly having an explosive first step is what pushed Foye into the lottery?
I never really watched alot of Foye during college years so is accurate to say Bradley Beal is Randy Foye without the quick first step and ball handling?

Looking back at draftexpress measurement that biggest redflag about randy foye was that he a standing reach of 8'1. That is really really bad meaning since average standing reach for playoff shooting guard is 8'6 and means that randy has to jump 5inches just to have an equal chance at getting to the ball as someone who has an 8'6 standing reach and play shooting guard and also means that you have to subtract 5 inches from his vertical jump stats to evaluate him fairly to the prototype shooting guards. He had outstanding footspeed at 10.50 and excellent bulk at 212. Where there any reports that Foye had knee problems in college? We all knew that B. Roy had knee problems coming into the league but it looks like Foye has never been dominant at getting Free Attempts and his hightest total was in third season where had 270 free throw attempts. Maybe my theory of lightening quick first step and bulk can predict success for a shooting guard.
Or it could be that the combination of a poor standing reach 8'1 and poor wingspan 6'6 ultimately cancels out a shooting guard explosive first step and 215lb bulk need for finishing at the rim.
Eric Gordon has 8'3 standing reach which gives him 2 additional inches over Foye each time he jumps in the lane and he also has 6'10 wingspan allowing him to extend the ball a couple inches further away from his body. Also Eric gordon was able to keep an addition 10lbs of bulk on his body and still mantain and explosive first step allowing him his most of 348 Free throw attempts in his third season.
But neigher of these players comes as close to dwade in his second year of getting to the line 762 attempts
brandon Roy 6-6 416 Free throw attempts standing reach--8'5 or James harden standing reach 8'7 with 380 Free throw attempts.

Catch and shoot guards are ok when their athleticism is gone but a shooting guard needs to be able to free throw line at will when the offense stagnates. I don't like the idea of shooting guard not being able to get the free throw line and will and not being a strong finisher at the rim. So being able to get to rim for FTA and the ability to knock down the three ball are the primary jobs of a shooting guard. Nick could finish strong at the rim because he didn't have bulk only weight 205. Crawford does have a quick first step and struggles to get by his man to even get to the free throw line. Wall has a quick first step is decent at finishing at the rim but can't hit a three point shot so people can sag off him and help out on others.
We need a complete shooting guard who first and foremost can do three things--explosive first step, finish at rim strong--usually you need a 8'5 or better standing reach and 215 bulk, and can also knock down the three ball.

Here we go again. You pose unrealistic physical criteria, and the few players who meet the criteria generally aren't that good anyhow.

Here's a list of guys drafted in the past decade who were 6-5 or shorter in bare feet (SG height) who weighed more than 215 pounds when they were drafted:

David Lighty
David Noel
Lance Stephenson
Mardy Collins
Iman Shumpert
Denham Brown
Mark Karcher
Tyreke Evans
James Harden
Andre Emmett
Dominique Jones
Fred Jones
Eric Gordon
Charles Jenkins
Sherron Collins

Basically, only 15 guards in the past decade meet your criteria of weighing 215. And of those that do, only 2 of them are any good (Harden and Gordon). So your stance that good shooting guards must be 215 or more is demonstrably false - unless you think the only good shooting guards in the league are Harden and Gordon.

[Nivek]

Someone requested my draft rating on Kevin Love. His season at UCLA gives him the 12th highest rating in my spreadsheet. He has the rating of a #1 pick in most drafts, top 5 in any draft. In addition to first-rate production as a freshman, consider that at the draft camps he measured with an average standing reach for a PF, his lane agility time was FAST (above average for a SG prospect), his sprint was FAST (about average for a SG), he did 18 reps on the bench press (above average for a PF or C), and both his no-step and maximum verticals were above average for a PF.

And yet, the question about him entering the draft is best summarized by this write-up on DX during the NCAA tourney that freshman season at UCLA:

Love is very likely to declare for the draft this year, and he’s a likely lottery pick if he does, especially with the way he’s been playing in the postseason. He’s someone who will draw varied opinions as a prospect, ranging from surefire starter to possible role player, due to the many questions surrounding how his size and athleticism will affect him at the next level. His ability to spot up from deep and his excellent rebounding skills are two things that are very likely to translate, but what position he will defend and whether he’ll be able to score inside with near the same efficiency as he did in college is in question, especially considering he’ll be even more prone to having his shot blocked as a pro.

Yeah, that solid size for a PF and above average athleticism has come back to really bite Love as a pro.

Maybe the only thing I could find to worry about a little with him was his body fat percentage, which was 12% at the draft camp. The in-season production and above average strength, speed and agility probably would have allayed that worry, however. To read his pre-draft profile would have folks believing Love was a miracle of intangibles.

It's pretty funny to look at, but he tested almost identical to Michael Beasley before the draft.

Code: Select all

CAT            Love    Beasley
Reach          8-10    8-11
No-Step        29.5    30.0
Max Vert       35.0    35.0
Bench          18      19
Lane Agil      11.17   11.06
3/4 Sprint     3.22    3.24


Here are snippets from their scouting reports on NBADraft.net:

Beasley

A fabulous athlete with an NBA ready body

Love

At 6-9, he is undersized and he also lacks great athleticism to offset this size deficiency

[fishercob]

Pigment bias, anyone?

[Rafael122]

It's kinda like the whole thing with Andrew Luck and his combine numbers. He tested out to be just as athletic as Cam Newton, yet when being compared to RG, Luck isn't as athletic or something.