The Official I Am Glad Flip Got Fired Thread

[montestewart]

They do an fair job of forcing misses when they're near an assignment, because they have length and speed, but they just leave so many shooters open and so many slashers and cutters get to the rim relatively unbothered.

[Nivek]

They do an fair job of forcing misses when they're near an assignment, because they have length and speed, but they just leave so many shooters open and so many slashers and cutters get to the rim relatively unbothered.

Basically everyone does a good job of forcing misses when they're near an assignment -- presence is what causes misses. Sandy Weil's optical tracking study (he presented this at the Sloan stat conference last year) found that a defender within 3 feet of a shooter lowers the shooting percentage by 12%. In other words, a 50% shot becomes a 38% shot. The issue isn't that Washington's players are somehow ineffective when they challenge shots -- it's that they don't stay close enough to opposing offensive players to contest shots.

[hands11]

dandridge, you were right. These players are really, really bad.

The Randy Wittman adrenalin rush has worn off and the team is getting crushed, as you correctly predicted. I don't know who originated this quote, but it goes something to the affect, "When adversity or pressure is applied to people they revert to who they really are."

Washington's players are really putting on a bad display of basketball. They are getting DESTROYED by the Clippers and have been getting worse each game now.

Flip Saunders couldn't do anything with these guys.

I was very wrong.

I know I tried to walk you back lots of times regarding Flip but I don't really have a problem with them changing when they did. It wasn't really Flips fault but it was a bad/hard situation for him to be effective in.

Randy is a different kind of dude who I think fits well for where the team is. Randy is more willing to simplify the play book and he has a different style about him that I think will work better for this set of players. And the Dray injury was perfect timing. Now they can really go young and get everyone on the court to evaluate.

I think it would be a mistake for people to say Randy won't make a difference. It would be the same kind of mistake as thinking Flip didnt make a difference. This is a teaching, evaluation and weeding out processes. Wins would be nice but that isn't what it is about right now.

The more I get a feel for how this shortened season is playing out the more it is clear that it is really hurting a team like the Wizards. They needed to extra days off to practice. But at least the short season gets us through another losing season more quickly. Then they will get another high pick to go with their cap space and expiring contract.

Better days are on the way. I'm not really down on the situation. It is more promising then anything I have seen in a long time. They are rebuilding the right way. Big picture if what matters. So while I would rather have seen them add Brooks and now I wish they would move Mason and Mo if he can't play, I'm ok with what they are doing.

I think Wall is learning a lot about himself and his game this year. I will expect him to be a focused machine this summer. For now, I just hope Randy can get though to him regarding pace, change of speed, keeping his dribble and when and when not to shoot. At least he showed a commitment to defense this year. That is a lot.

[montestewart]

They do an fair job of forcing misses when they're near an assignment, because they have length and speed, but they just leave so many shooters open and so many slashers and cutters get to the rim relatively unbothered.

Basically everyone does a good job of forcing misses when they're near an assignment -- presence is what causes misses. Sandy Weil's optical tracking study (he presented this at the Sloan stat conference last year) found that a defender within 3 feet of a shooter lowers the shooting percentage by 12%. In other words, a 50% shot becomes a 38% shot. The issue isn't that Washington's players are somehow ineffective when they challenge shots -- it's that they don't stay close enough to opposing offensive players to contest shots.

And if it's a wide open Korver, that percentage spread is apparently even higher. Sheesh!

[pancakes3]

is it the coaching change that precipitated these minor changes or blatche being out? the world may never know. or maybe they'll know in 2-3 weeks.

[closg00]

Here's a four-factors comparison of the team under Flip and the team under Wittman:

Code: Select all

STAT    Flip    Witt
pace    93.3    92.7
ortg    94.4    99.9
drtg    105.3   112.0
efg     .438    .467
defg    .497    .521
orb%    26%     28%
drb%    72%     63%
tov%    16%     15%
dtov%   16%     18%
ft      0.19    0.16
dft     0.22    0.24
Pyt82   14.7    13.7


The team has been a bit better offensively, but the offensive improvement has been offset by worse defense. Under Wittman (only a handful of games, so nothing definitive yet), they're fouling a bit more, rebounding worse, and defending worse. They're forcing more turnovers, but allowing opponents to shoot a much higher percentage. As I've pointed out many times, NBA defense is mostly about forcing the other guy to miss and then getting the rebound. Turnovers are nice to get, but don't really make that big a difference.

Kevin, could you update this chart please?

Despite our record, having Flip gone has been a huge moral booster for what left of the post-trade team. When you read quotes from the players these past few weeks, their attitude is so-much more positive than when Flip was here. I don't think you would have seen Kevin's improvement this-soon under Flip.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

dandridge, you were right. These players are really, really bad.

The Randy Wittman adrenalin rush has worn off and the team is getting crushed, as you correctly predicted. I don't know who originated this quote, but it goes something to the affect, "When adversity or pressure is applied to people they revert to who they really are."

Washington's players are really putting on a bad display of basketball. They are getting DESTROYED by the Clippers and have been getting worse each game now.

Flip Saunders couldn't do anything with these guys.

I was very wrong.

Since writing that apology, February 4, 2012, I have seen Randy Wittman do a fine job coaching. I love the way Wittman has developed young players. Wittman has been a breath of fresh air compared to Flip. This coach has done all I could ask of a coach, given the talent at his disposal.

Jordan Crawford's playing through taking many bad shots is my one quibble with Wittman. Otherwise, the man has gotten the best out his players, and Randy has done a great job pinpointing problem areas. He is honest and he holds his players accountable. Randy is not a downer like Flip. Randy is feisty and positive a good bit of the time, too.

I like Wittman's coaching and I have all the respect in the world for him. I did not stand respect Flip's ways, to be honest. He never held himself accountable. He threw players under the bus. Saunders was inflexible with his "pound the rock" approach. Saunders played Blatche even when Booker outperformed Andray. Saunders never played Seraphin much. Saunders didn't seem to encourage young players. He made Wall a team captain, and that was flat unwise. Flip had some bad substitution patterns a lot of the time. Offense was TERRIBLE under Flip.

I felt sorry for hating on Flip after he was fired. The first few games when Randy started losing, I had to admit the players were not good. Still, Randy has boosted morale and he is a fighter.

Flip was the wrong coach for this team. He was too experienced with winning and having ready-made teams, or a team with a superstar. Randy Wittman is adept at scrapping with a bad team and young players.

I am so glad Flip is gone.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Here's a four-factors comparison of the team under Flip and the team under Wittman:

Code: Select all

STAT    Flip    Witt
pace    93.3    92.7
ortg    94.4    99.9
drtg    105.3   112.0
efg     .438    .467
defg    .497    .521
orb%    26%     28%
drb%    72%     63%
tov%    16%     15%
dtov%   16%     18%
ft      0.19    0.16
dft     0.22    0.24
Pyt82   14.7    13.7


The team has been a bit better offensively, but the offensive improvement has been offset by worse defense. Under Wittman (only a handful of games, so nothing definitive yet), they're fouling a bit more, rebounding worse, and defending worse. They're forcing more turnovers, but allowing opponents to shoot a much higher percentage. As I've pointed out many times, NBA defense is mostly about forcing the other guy to miss and then getting the rebound. Turnovers are nice to get, but don't really make that big a difference.

Kevin, could you update this chart please?

Despite our record, having Flip gone has been a huge moral booster for what left of the post-trade team. When you read quotes from the players these past few weeks, their attitude is so-much more positive than when Flip was here. I don't think you would have seen Kevin's improvement this-soon under Flip.

+1

[Nivek]

Updated chart on the Wizards since firing Flip Saunders:

Code: Select all

STAT    FLIP    WITT    LgAvg
Pyt82   13.9    26.8    41.0
Pace    92.6    91.5    91.2
ortg    95.7    103.2   104.6
drtg    107.2   108.6   104.6
efg     .439    .479    .487
defg    .505    .493    .487
orb%    .249    .283    .270
drb%    .716    .702    .730
tov%    .154    .160    .138
dtov%   .164    .151    .138
ft/fga  .192    .187    .209
dft/fga .212    .237    .209


Wittman has done a nice job with this group, and has also benefited from an easier schedule than Flip had, AND (more importantly) almost no Blatche.

[nate33]

Updated chart on the Wizards since firing Flip Saunders:

Code: Select all

STAT    FLIP    WITT    LgAvg
Pyt82   13.9    26.8    41.0
Pace    92.6    91.5    91.2
ortg    95.7    103.2   104.6
drtg    107.2   108.6   104.6
efg     .439    .479    .487
defg    .505    .493    .487
orb%    .249    .283    .270
drb%    .716    .702    .730
tov%    .154    .160    .138
dtov%   .164    .151    .138
ft/fga  .192    .187    .209
dft/fga .212    .237    .209


Wittman has done a nice job with this group, and has also benefited from an easier schedule than Flip had, AND (more importantly) almost no Blatche.

Flip had a healthy roster though. Wittman is holding our big man rotation together with duct tape.

[fugop]

How is it that our ortg is near average when all of our offensive stats, aside from offensive rebounding, are so far below average?

I'm surprised that our orb% under Whittman has improved so much -- we went from epic-bad to pretty good, while trading our best offensive rebounder in McGee.

[Nivek]

Flip did have a healthy roster. He also "had to" go down the rabbit hole of giving Blatche playing time in the hopes that he'd produce something. I say "had to" because I'm not sure whether it was something Flip believed, whether he was ordered to play Blatche by the front office, whether the team's collective "brain trust" really believed Blatche was their best option at PF, or whether they felt like they had to give him playing time because of his extension. Regardless, Blatche not being available meant that Wittman had more freedom to play guys who actually deserved playing time and were somewhat productive while on the floor.

[verbal8]

How is it that our ortg is near average when all of our offensive stats, aside from offensive rebounding, are so far below average?

efg(effective field goal %) isn't that far from average, also I think offensive rebounding helps a lot, because it creates extra possessions.

[Nivek]

How is it that our ortg is near average when all of our offensive stats, aside from offensive rebounding, are so far below average?

I'm surprised that our orb% under Whittman has improved so much -- we went from epic-bad to pretty good, while trading our best offensive rebounder in McGee.

Couple things -- 1st, the league average is a full-season league average, not just for the time Wittman's been in charge. During that time, the league's offensive rating has climbed. When Flip was still the coach, the league's offensive rating was something like 102-103. So, some of the improvement is actually the entire league getting a little more efficient offensively. (Which is something that happens in most seasons.) And the other thing is that the shooting under Wittman has been better, and they're getting a relatively high number of offensive rebounds.

Of course, the offensive rebounding is double-edged at best. The better teams usually aren't real strong on the offensive glass -- they don't need to be because they're shooting a high percentage, they're getting to the FT line and they're avoiding turnovers. Wizards under Wittman are high turnover, crummy from the FT line, and a bit below average shooting from the floor. They need those offensive boards.

verbal8: Minor point, but in "advanced stats" parlance, offensive rebounds don't create extra possessions, they extend possessions.

[dandridge 10]

I think Witt has done a pretty good job with this lousy group. However, I think Witt also had help with the schedule (he got all three wins agains the Bobcats), the removal of Blatche, the removal of Young and McGee, and the addition of Nene for a short period of time. I also think time also helped him in that many of the players had an opportunity to grow as the season progressed. With that said, I like what Witt has done in terms of speeding up the game, and simplifing the offense sets. I also like Witt's overall demeanor more than Flip. Overall, I say Witt has been a marginal improvement over Flip. However, in the grand scheme of things, this team still stinks because of a lack of talent, not because of either Flip or Witt.

[Nivek]

Updated the "strength of schedule" thing.

The teams Flip faced this season have a collective scoring differential of a 48-win team (over an 82-game schedule) -- a 4th or 5th seed in the playoffs most of the time.

The teams Wittman has faced this season have a collecting scoring differential of a 39-win team -- a record typical of an 8th seed or a team that just misses the playoffs.

[dandridge 10]

Updated the "strength of schedule" thing.

The teams Flip faced this season have a collective scoring differential of a 48-win team (over an 82-game schedule) -- a 4th or 5th seed in the playoffs most of the time.

The teams Wittman has faced this season have a collecting scoring differential of a 39-win team -- a record typical of an 8th seed or a team that just misses the playoffs.

Thanks for putting stats to support what I was trying to say. Not only did Flip have a tougher schedule, he also was dealing with trying to figure out how the pieces would fit together after shortened training camp. Like I said, I like a lot of Witt has done. However, I wouldn't say that Witt has done that much better than Flip...Then again, I don't expect any coach to do that well with this group given the lack of talent on this team.

[closg00]

Flips biggest coaching victory came over OKC, Witt scored Victories over:

Orlando (broke their streak over us)
Chicago
Lakers
Philly ( ended their streak over us)

Witt had the weaker schedule but had mor victories over stronger opponents.

[dandridge 10]

Flips biggest coaching victory came over OKC, Witt scored Victories over:

Orlando (broke their streak over us)
Chicago
Lakers
Philly ( ended their streak over us)

Witt had the weaker schedule but had mor victories over stronger opponents.

Witt also had a lot more games to secure those wins, and Chicago and Orlando were missing key players. Again, I like Witt. But its not like he is setting the world on fire either. My contention remains...this team sucks not because of either Flip or Witt. The Wiz have 14 wins because of the substandard talent on this team.

[jivelikenice]

I Like Wittman but I just don't see him being the coach here for the next 5-years. Let's say we give him a 3-yr deal and we start off terribly next season. What then?

I like what he's done in terms of cleaning up Flip's mess and he has gotten more out of this roster than Flip would have IMO. That beign said, I don't like the offensive system and plays that they call and I don't think Wittman has done enough in terms of holding players accountable (Jordan Crawford shot selection being my biggest issue)....