Well, the schedules are out, and so are the lines for week one.
Sept. 5
Cowboys at Giants (-3.5), 8:30 p.m.
Sept. 9
Eagles (-6) at Browns, 1 p.m.
Redskins at Saints (-6), 1 p.m.
Bills at Jets (-6), 1 p.m.
Jaguars at Vikings (-3.5), 1 p.m.
Colts at Bears (-7.5), 1 p.m.
Dolphins at Texans (-6), 1 p.m.
Patriots (-5) at Titans, 1 p.m.
Rams at Lions (-7.5), 1 p.m.
Falcons (-1) at Chiefs, 1 p.m.
49ers at Packers (-5), 4:15 p.m.
Seahawks at Cardinals (-1), 4:15 p.m.
Panthers (-1.5) at Buccaneers, 4:15 p.m.
Steelers at Broncos (-1.5), 8:20 p.m.
Sept. 10
Bengals at Ravens (-6), 7 p.m.
Chargers (-2) at Raiders, 10:15 p.m.
2012 Week One Lines
Moderator: bwgood77
2012 Week One Lines
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HMFFL
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Re: 2012 Week One Lines
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Icness
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Re: 2012 Week One Lines
Would this be a good time to lay $$ on a perceived value, or should I wait? Like, Denver giving points to Pittsburgh and Texans laying just 6 at home against the Dolphins. I suspect those lines will change but it seems awful premature.
It's not whether you win or lose, it's how good you look playing the game
Re: 2012 Week One Lines
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HMFFL
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Re: 2012 Week One Lines
If you see value you should go for it. I think Houston will end up going up to -7.
I'm curious to see how a number of them move.
I'm curious to see how a number of them move.
Re: 2012 Week One Lines
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Icness
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Re: 2012 Week One Lines
I want $100 that James Harrison ends Peyton Manning's career in that DEN/PIT game.
It's not whether you win or lose, it's how good you look playing the game
Re: 2012 Week One Lines
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TSE
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Re: 2012 Week One Lines
Icness wrote:Would this be a good time to lay $$ on a perceived value, or should I wait? Like, Denver giving points to Pittsburgh and Texans laying just 6 at home against the Dolphins. I suspect those lines will change but it seems awful premature.
It's a terrible time if the house gets to hold your money. The lines are calculated to be as equal as the experts can calibrate them so the juice for the bet that you normally give up is compounded by the additional opportunity cost that you incur if you allow them to hold your money without additional compensation.
It's a sucker bet. The games aren't going to be played for months, there's no reason to develop the lines now except to maximize the advantage over the bettor to a slightly higher degree. You can predict all you want but your odds of predicting which line will adjust in your favor before the game is played is equally offset by the chance that you make the wrong prediction, as the logic here is to assume each line is a perfect 50/50 proposition. The only way to win is to not place any bet, otherwise I would argue that you are signing up for a lower Expected Value than the perfectly neutral 0 that it is worth to not participate.
Re: 2012 Week One Lines
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Da Schwab
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Re: 2012 Week One Lines
Icness wrote:I want $100 that James Harrison ends Peyton Manning's career in that DEN/PIT game.
Gregg Williams will double that.
Re: 2012 Week One Lines
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Icness
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Re: 2012 Week One Lines
One book has NO -11, another NO -6.5. I'd like $500 on the saints at -6.5, $500 on Washington at 11.
It's not whether you win or lose, it's how good you look playing the game
Re: 2012 Week One Lines
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TSE
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Re: 2012 Week One Lines
Wow I was just about to go to bed and saw this but this deserves like a 500 page response lol...
Sportsbook arbitrage betting can be profitable, but there are many factors to consider when engaging in that type of activity if you want to have a qualified ROI. You could also buy cake ingredients at the store for 5 bucks and make a cake and then sell it for 20 and take 15 profit, so what? How much time invested to make that 15 bucks is what matters as money can be made in all kinds of opportunities. Some types of opportunities have drawbacks such as drug dealing. Sure the numbers line up, but the subjective penalties negate the profitability of what the numbers might suggest. There are lots of factors to consider if you want to maximize your ROI in arbitrage betting. If you want to spend no time at all to make 1 penny for every dollar you bet, then cool, but if you could spend 10% more time to learn how to do it properly and you could make 10 cents for every dollar, then that's where the real win comes into play.
If you seriously want to take up arbitrage betting then I HIGHLY suggest you study probabilities and research the subject at great length, because without understanding the math of how to design the amounts or rather the proportions of your bets on each side, you won't be able to generate the same ROI for your time involvement in finding those arbitrage opportunities as you can from spending the time to maximize how to do it right for the maximum possible gains.
i.e. if it took you an hour to figure out how to find a bet that you knew you could make an easy 5 bucks on but I told you that you could spend 10 minutes to turn that into a 10 dollar profit, then how silly is it to never learn how to do it right and only take the 5 bucks for every hour invested? With sportsbook arbitrage betting their are other constraints to consider. Why not bet 1 billion? Because you don't have it, so your gross profit is limited. And the opportunities are limited. And if you want to make it a huge business you will find other challenges when trying to use large amounts over a large period of time with various bookies out there. Maybe you should hire a staff to constantly search for sportsbooks so you don't run out of avenues etc. etc.
You could also go on Craigslist and advertise a pair of new Nikes for $100 and try to find somebody trying to sell them for less than $100. Money doesn't happen automatically, you have to research that too and how much time it takes to collect the arbitrage is the key to doing it efficiently. What if you only find a seller for $90 and could have found a buyer for $130? You could have made $40 there but yet you just spent 1 hour to make 10 bucks instead of 40. 10 bucks an hour might be ok, but to only make 1/4 of the money you could have made by doing it properly is the real artform.
Long story short, you can make money doing anything that you set your mind to and want to invest time into. And the more you know the better you can do, the lesser you know the more likely you are to make a mistake in your analysis and expose yourself to risks that you didn't foresee when you didn't think of every ramification of what you were doing and in conjunction with your opportunity cost of not doing some other activity that is more profitable than the one you are working on. Just some food for thought. So research the topic more and have fun if you are so inclined!
Sportsbook arbitrage betting can be profitable, but there are many factors to consider when engaging in that type of activity if you want to have a qualified ROI. You could also buy cake ingredients at the store for 5 bucks and make a cake and then sell it for 20 and take 15 profit, so what? How much time invested to make that 15 bucks is what matters as money can be made in all kinds of opportunities. Some types of opportunities have drawbacks such as drug dealing. Sure the numbers line up, but the subjective penalties negate the profitability of what the numbers might suggest. There are lots of factors to consider if you want to maximize your ROI in arbitrage betting. If you want to spend no time at all to make 1 penny for every dollar you bet, then cool, but if you could spend 10% more time to learn how to do it properly and you could make 10 cents for every dollar, then that's where the real win comes into play.
If you seriously want to take up arbitrage betting then I HIGHLY suggest you study probabilities and research the subject at great length, because without understanding the math of how to design the amounts or rather the proportions of your bets on each side, you won't be able to generate the same ROI for your time involvement in finding those arbitrage opportunities as you can from spending the time to maximize how to do it right for the maximum possible gains.
i.e. if it took you an hour to figure out how to find a bet that you knew you could make an easy 5 bucks on but I told you that you could spend 10 minutes to turn that into a 10 dollar profit, then how silly is it to never learn how to do it right and only take the 5 bucks for every hour invested? With sportsbook arbitrage betting their are other constraints to consider. Why not bet 1 billion? Because you don't have it, so your gross profit is limited. And the opportunities are limited. And if you want to make it a huge business you will find other challenges when trying to use large amounts over a large period of time with various bookies out there. Maybe you should hire a staff to constantly search for sportsbooks so you don't run out of avenues etc. etc.
You could also go on Craigslist and advertise a pair of new Nikes for $100 and try to find somebody trying to sell them for less than $100. Money doesn't happen automatically, you have to research that too and how much time it takes to collect the arbitrage is the key to doing it efficiently. What if you only find a seller for $90 and could have found a buyer for $130? You could have made $40 there but yet you just spent 1 hour to make 10 bucks instead of 40. 10 bucks an hour might be ok, but to only make 1/4 of the money you could have made by doing it properly is the real artform.
Long story short, you can make money doing anything that you set your mind to and want to invest time into. And the more you know the better you can do, the lesser you know the more likely you are to make a mistake in your analysis and expose yourself to risks that you didn't foresee when you didn't think of every ramification of what you were doing and in conjunction with your opportunity cost of not doing some other activity that is more profitable than the one you are working on. Just some food for thought. So research the topic more and have fun if you are so inclined!
Re: 2012 Week One Lines
-
HMFFL
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Re: 2012 Week One Lines
HMFFL wrote:Well, the schedules are out, and so are the lines for week one.
Sept. 5
Cowboys at Giants (-3.5), 8:30 p.m.
Sept. 9
Eagles (-6) at Browns, 1 p.m.
Redskins at Saints (-6), 1 p.m.
Bills at Jets (-6), 1 p.m.
Jaguars at Vikings (-3.5), 1 p.m.
Colts at Bears (-7.5), 1 p.m.
Dolphins at Texans (-6), 1 p.m.
Patriots (-5) at Titans, 1 p.m.
Rams at Lions (-7.5), 1 p.m.
Falcons (-1) at Chiefs, 1 p.m.
49ers at Packers (-5), 4:15 p.m.
Seahawks at Cardinals (-1), 4:15 p.m.
Panthers (-1.5) at Buccaneers, 4:15 p.m.
Steelers at Broncos (-1.5), 8:20 p.m.
Sept. 10
Bengals at Ravens (-6), 7 p.m.
Chargers (-2) at Raiders, 10:15 p.m.
Some updates on the line movements.
Indianapolis at Chicago -9.5
Jacksonville at Minnesota -4.5
Buffalo at N.Y. Jets -3.5
Miami at Houston -7
New England -6.5 at Tennessee
St. Louis at Detroit -9
Washington at New Orleans -9.5
Philadelphia -9 at Cleveland
Carolina -3 at Tampa Bay
San Diego -1 at Oakland
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