2012 NBA Draft - Part III

[dobrojim]

even with our newfound depth at C (Nene and KSera) I would still be
happy if, after getting screwed in the lotto, we traded back for multiple
later picks and got Zeller. Much earlier in this thread someone mentioned
his calfs being like tree trunks. I think his center of gravity is going to
be OK. Along with a whole lot of other things about him. I just don't
see a whole lot not to like: Proven skills and production, good size and
athleticism, good work ethic and motor, good BBIQ. Someone is going
to end up being pretty happy with this guy.

[truwizfan4evr]

I would not be happy with the fifth pick that be a disappointment for us. Getting forth pick be a ok pick getting third pick be a good pick. If we get second pick it be a great pick. If we somehow get the number one pick it makes it a perfect draft for the wizards. I don't agree with trading down are pick. there would still be someone good left at fifth pick. If we did happen to get fifth pick we most likely get Beal witch is not bad of a pick up if you ask me.

[closg00]

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/6476/jeremy-tyler

Look who is starting to show up.

Last draft I wanted us to take a shot at this kid. We could have had him instead of Mack. Instead of Mack, we could have found a vet PG to back up Wall. I remember hearing that wanted a vet behind wall, not sure what happened there.

Considering how difficult it is to find quality big-men (and McGee being in his final year), Tyler should have been on our short list for 2nd round picks, along with Chandler Parson and some others guys we were discussing around draft-time. Mack is one of the worst back-ups in the NBA, he isn't an NBA player.

[GoWizGo]

Why would have the Wizards considered Jeremy Tyler?

Two years ago, he was considered the TOP player in his age class in the country. After two years oversees, he has now become a humble human being. He still has all that talent and is getting better every day. He could have been drafted by Wiz on a 2nd Round non-guaranteed contract, but that would have made too much sense. They could have drafted Josh Selby (who is tearing up the d-league and a former top 10 player in his age class in high school) or Chandler Parsons ( a great Point Forward Compliment to John Wall) instead of Mack. I like Mack but their were better options available.

[GoWizGo]

I'm still surprised that Ernie Grunfeld didn't go after Tyler or Selby. He seems to always try to hit a homerun on a Blatche/McGee/Pech type player who have tons of talent but haven't put it together yet.

[7-Day Dray]

The thing is, Mack is worse than those guys even though he spent all four years in college.

[Dat2U]

Missing on a 2nd round pick is like missing brunch on Sunday's. It's not a big deal and it's pretty damn normal. There's plenty to bash Ernie about without delving into the minutiae of marginal draft picks.

Jeremy Tyler has had his moments and I even considered that he may be a worthy pick last season, but its too early to say we'll regret not drafting him. And suggesting Ernie missed on Josh Shelby borders on ridiculous. Shelby was a disaster in college, and in his brief NBA time has been equally bad as well.

[truwizfan4evr]

I am starting to think MKG is a lock to second overall pick for any team. I also think his post up game is underrated. He plays very physical and try to bully his way to the rack the few times I seen him go to the rack he actually looked pretty good doing it. A guy who does it all like he does is rare and who play as hard as he does. once he gets a reliable jumper he is a sure all star in my eyes. He would be my second option behind Anthony Davis. I know we need shooting but We have to find that elsewhere no way we pass up on a guy like MKG.

[spaceman_E]

I'm curious as to what people think Anthony Davis' upside is? I don't see him as a PF and I don't see him as a no.1 option. I want someone to convince me that he's not just Marcus Camby (a good but not franchise-altering player).

[Nivek]

I'm curious as to what people think Anthony Davis' upside is? I don't see him as a PF and I don't see him as a no.1 option. I want someone to convince me that he's not just Marcus Camby (a good but not franchise-altering player).

In my draft research, Davis has the highest rating. #2: Hakeem (as a junior). #3: Duncan (as a senior).

I haven't run the numbers on Camby -- I'll do that Monday when I'm back to a good computer. But there's every reason to think Davis is going to be a star player in the NBA. The kind of guy who won't get mentioned as the best player in the game (that'll be the next Kobe or whatever other 6-7 swingman is being hyped as the next Jordan), but who will actually BE the best player in the game in terms of doing the things that win games.

If the Wizards get him, I think they could win 50 games next year. And then get better.

[gesa2]

I'm curious as to what people think Anthony Davis' upside is? I don't see him as a PF and I don't see him as a no.1 option. I want someone to convince me that he's not just Marcus Camby (a good but not franchise-altering player).

In my draft research, Davis has the highest rating. #2: Hakeem (as a junior). #3: Duncan (as a senior).

I haven't run the numbers on Camby -- I'll do that Monday when I'm back to a good computer. But there's every reason to think Davis is going to be a star player in the NBA. The kind of guy who won't get mentioned as the best player in the game (that'll be the next Kobe or whatever other 6-7 swingman is being hyped as the next Jordan), but who will actually BE the best player in the game in terms of doing the things that win games.

If the Wizards get him, I think they could win 50 games next year. And then get better.

If that was posted by someone more prone to hyperbole, I wouldn't believe it. Tanking is worth a 20% chance at THAT!!

[Dr Positivity]

So, I tried to replicate Mufasa's suggestion that Cleveland might have had Tristan Thompson rated as the 2nd best player in last year's draft. I couldn't get him that high, but I did get him into the top 7 by discounting the production of juniors and seniors by about 25%, and the production of sophomores by about 5%.

That said -- I don't think "discounting" like this does much except to push underclassmen further up the board and make the rankings conform a bit more with conventional wisdom.

Applying the "discounts" then says the top 11 prospects (all years) in my spreadsheet are freshman or sophomores. The first junior is Hakeem at 12; the first senior is Duncan at 13.

In terms of this year's draft, this discounting finally succeeds in moving Crowder down a bit. Still with a top 5 rating, though.

I may keep playing with this "discounting" thing. It's an interesting concept. Just not sure whether it does anything to improve the results/analysis.

This is a little late, but on the topic of TT and stats I went back and looked at Hollinger's rankings and he had TT's stats 1st overall just ahead of Irving and Williams http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft201 ... ter-110620 So yeah there's some kind of formula that these guys are using that favors TT. The only info I get on his actual formula (which he says he is revising every year) is that it contains 16 variables and analyses drafts to a player's first 3 seasons in PER. It seems pretty Hollinger nerdy

[spaceman_E]

I'm curious as to what people think Anthony Davis' upside is? I don't see him as a PF and I don't see him as a no.1 option. I want someone to convince me that he's not just Marcus Camby (a good but not franchise-altering player).

In my draft research, Davis has the highest rating. #2: Hakeem (as a junior). #3: Duncan (as a senior).

This might sound rude but I'm more focused on why. Why is he going to all of a sudden become a dominant offensive force? Or is he just so unbelievably good defensively that it makes him the best prospect ever?

[Dr Positivity]

I'm curious as to what people think Anthony Davis' upside is? I don't see him as a PF and I don't see him as a no.1 option. I want someone to convince me that he's not just Marcus Camby (a good but not franchise-altering player).

In my draft research, Davis has the highest rating. #2: Hakeem (as a junior). #3: Duncan (as a senior).

This might sound rude but I'm more focused on why. Why is he going to all of a sudden become a dominant offensive force? Or is he just so unbelievably good defensively that it makes him the best prospect ever?

The scary part about Davis (from a NCAA to NBA stats perspective) is he has some elite offensive numbers. He has the highest 2P% in the class by far (65%, next closest is Leonard/Lamb at 60%) and an unbelievable ast/turnover ratio for a player who was a C in college with 1.22. For PFs and Cs in DX's top 100 there are 3 players over 1.2 (Draymond Green, Royce White and Davis), Henson is at .98 and everyone else is under .7. Players actually playing C this year include Zeller (.49), Sullinger (.64), Leonard (.63), Fab Melo (.49), and Andre Drummond brings up the rear (.29). Greg Monroe in college who is probably the most well regarded passer among C prospects anytime recently, was 1.14. Love's was 0.96. So Davis is actually a once in a generation type of outlier in both 2P% and Ast/TO for his position, maybe the 2 most important offensive stats as indicators, and he's doing this as a freshman with elite "will translate" physical tools.

I'm still not sold on whether all this means something, but in any case if you're looking at it from a stats perspective and building an NCAA to NBA "what translates" system, Davis' might have the best offensive numbers in the class.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Davis has some very unique stats.

He averaged 4.7 blocks, 1.4 steals, and only 1.0 turnover and 2.0 fouls. His 14 and 10 came on .623 shooting. To average almost 5 blocks for every turnover is unreal.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pla ... vis-5.html

Davis finished first in the NCAA in many categories. He made the most free throws in the SEC. As a PF in the NBA Davis is going to be able to score better than most imagine.

[spaceman_E]

Wouldn't those be negated by a usage rate, mufasa? 63% is nice, but on only 8 shots per game. That sure reads like it's all put backs and dunks. It's nice that he's not turning the ball over but it doesn't seem like he had the ball that much.

[doclinkin]

Why is he going to all of a sudden become a dominant offensive force? Or is he just so unbelievably good defensively that it makes him the best prospect ever?

The latter more than anything. He's shown needn't be a first option scorer to leave his impact crater on opponents.

Consider JaVale McGee. Should be a masterful dominant player going by physicals alone. And by some measures he registers. His FG% was the best on the team, he put up double doubles and he regularly showed jaw-dropping physically unmatchable highlights on offense or shotblocking. In raw stats he had the best efficiency rating on the team.

Well, in all stats except +/- where the team consistently crated with him on the floor. No clue on the pick and roll, and in freethrow shooting, a sure sign of mental fortitude and work ethic he shoots 50% or less. Two years of college and a handful as a pro and he still had no clue towards defensive positioning.

Contrast Anthony Davis, who following a 9 inch growth spurt has converted from a perimeter face-up guard to a low-post defensive Big. As a 19 year old freshman led his team to a national championship largely on the strength of his defense. As a freshman, and recent convert to the position, he's regularly making plays that 5 year pros don't make. Reads, rotations, recovery from errors. He's rarely in the wrong place at the wrong time and when he is, he most often makes up the ground to fix the error. Free Throw percentage in the 70%, good turnover ratios all evidence that he know what he's doing out there. And while he looks lean of frame up top, check out his legs.

His calves are thicker than his head. Mighty thews. Practically 'SD20 da Dentist'. I think he'll translate to a Center, quicker than you expect. And he's got a decent jumper out to a reasonable distance (you don't need him shooting 3's) I think he'll have decent synergy next to a guy like Nene who does have a bit of distance in his game.

More than anything it's that poise and ball-smarts that elevate him as a prospect. The Center is the one defensive player who can see the whole court. He calls out the pick to warn the perimeter players, captains the defense and takes final responsibility on all offense funneled towards the rim. If you have a smart high energy active player in this position Joakim Noah, Tyson Chandler, Tim Duncan even though he pretends to be a PF, KG ditto, Rasheed, etc. -- you can win. The whole dang thang.

He's adjusted very quickly to playing the 2nd most complicated position on the court. I suspect anythign he can't do right now, if he needs to do it, he'll find a way to make it happen.

[7-Day Dray]

This might sound rude but I'm more focused on why. Why is he going to all of a sudden become a dominant offensive force? Or is he just so unbelievably good defensively that it makes him the best prospect ever?

I don't think he'll be a dominant offensive force, but he'll be very good. He has great mechanics on his jumper and pretty good range, so he'll be a good shooter that can be an effective pick & pop player, has shown soft touch around the rim with hooks shots w/ both hands, and has good ball skills for a big man. I don't think he'll ever be a dominant offensive player because he just doesn't have the power in his game to impose his will on the low block, but he'll be very good. I think he'll at least be an 18 ppg scorer, but his scoring numbers won't tell the whole story since he affects the game in so many ways.

[jangles86]

I want us to draft Beal.

I'm on the band wagon

[Nivek]

I think Davis will be a very good offensive player in the NBA (and a great defender). Doc covered the defense. On offense, he was absurdly, preposterously efficient and it wasn't because he was low usage. His overall possession usage was slightly lower than average, which is unsurprising considering that opposing defenses 1st order of business was trying to limit his opportunities inside. He's very skilled -- mid-range jumper, can put the ball on the floor if necessary, has jump hooks with either hand. And he's mobile, long and can jump.

7-Day -- "At least" an 18ppg scorer, eh? This season, 30 players are averaging 18ppg or more. Last year, there were 33. Basically, 18ppg means he's probably going to be the leading scorer on his team. I'd happily take that kind of scoring to go along with the kind of defense and rebounding Davis would bring.