hands11 wrote:rockymac52 wrote:willbcocks wrote:The odds of our getting Harden are equally poor. Both are scenarios where we would be stealing a young, good player, who everyone else in the league wants, and who the original team has rights over. How many times, if ever, has this happened? But it's still worth pursuing, even if the odds are low, whereas I don't really see the point in pursuing Anderson. He's good but not THAT good, and I would like to see how Vesley plays next year before declaring PF a gaping whole. SG and SF are clearly dire needs.
Well the Harden scenario is unique, because they'd need to extend Ibaka as well, which might be very difficult financially.
I like the idea of going after Harden, but I'm concerned about what happens if OKC matches our offer and we don't get him. Where do we go from there? I'm pretty sure if we don't sign a max or near max contract player either this offseason or next then we're not going to be able to.
So if we don't sign a max FA this offseason, all our eggs are in one basket for 2013. If we offer Harden but then OKC matches, who do we turn to next?
Josh Smith? Al Jefferson? Paul Millsap? Serge Ibaka? Dare I say it... Dwight Howard?
http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/22 ... rden_IbakaNot that it means anything but they are publicly saying they want them both.
Yeah, I saw that link earlier, but I'm skeptical. Obviously in a perfect world they'd love to keep both Harden and Ibaka. They're two good players, why wouldn't the Thunder want to keep them? But financially, I just don't see how it's possible.
Durant and Westbrook are both already signed to long-term maximum contracts (if Westbrook's isn't technically a max contract, then it's pretty damn close - he'll be making $14.5 million next season). This next season OKC will be completely fine. Harden and Ibaka will still be under their rookie contracts and the Thunder will keep all of their important pieces and only be a couple million dollars over the salary cap. The problems come the following year.
I assume the Thunder will extend qualifying offers to both Harden and Ibaka. Now let's say 2 other NBA teams attempt to sign those 2 players, respectively. They sign them to an offer sheet, then the Thunder are able to match it if they please. However, the offer sheets that Harden and Ibaka sign are going to be pretty big contracts I'd expect. We've been talking about offering Harden a maximum or near maximum contract. Let's say the Thunder decide he's worth that much money and he's that valuable to their franchise, and they match the offer. Harden would be making about $15 million in his first year of the extension. So now the Thunder have about $48 million committed to just 3 players (Durant, Westbrook, and Harden) in 2013-14. The salary cap is probably going to be about $61 million. The Thunder also have at least $15 million more committed that year to Perkins, Sefolosha, and Collison. So now they are sitting at a $63 million payroll with only 6 players on their roster.
So the next step is that other NBA team signs Ibaka to an offer sheet. Ibaka might not command max contract money, but I think he's definitely going to get at least $10 million per year. I think it's fair to say he'll get a deal with a first year salary of $10 million, similar to DeAndre Jordan's recent deal. So now if the Thunder want to keep Ibaka, it's going to cost them another $10 million, putting them at least $12 million over the salary cap, with only 7 players on their roster. A risky proposition.
If the Thunder want to sign both Ibaka and Harden, they can, but it's going to mean they're committing long-term to their current core, and very little will change in the future for them, whether things work out or not.
