Nick Young traded to Clippers/McGee to Denver/Nene to DC

[Spence]

I see the Nuggets are going with the Greek at center and bringing Javale off the bench. He played all right last night, though he should be able to grab more than one rebound in almost 15 minutes on the floor.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I watched part of the Clippers/Nuggets game yesterday. Nick Young is settling in and staring to find his shot. He played decent defense yesterday. The game before Young had a huge game.

Javale is playing less and less minutes for Denver. He played decently yesterday but he had a couple of fouls right at the rim. McGee's biggest problem at Denver is he's been shooting in the 30s percentage wise from the FT line.

At this point, I think McGee won't return to the Nuggets. He's playing 7-8 minutes less minutes a game, and he's trending towards less and less minutes as Koufas plays more (and better at C).

[Severn Hoos]

So I've been casually watching the Nuggets' box scores since the trade, and it seemed like every time I looked, Faried's numbers were not as impressive as they had seemed leading up to the trade. I know CCJ and some of the other McGee supporters will think I'm picking on our Prodigal Son, but I started to think that McGee was Kryptonite to Faried's Superman.

Faried had a stretch right before the trade where he had double digits in GameScore (I'm using from basketball-reference because I don't have per-game PER data) 7 times in a 10 game stretch, and 5 of those 7 were at 16 or higher. Since the trade, he's had double digit GameScore in 8 out of 20 games - almost half the rate he had before. And 4 of those 8 were in the 10-12 range (with one monster game against GS bringing up the average).

But then it dawned on me - perhaps this isn't an indictment on McGee as much as it is a reflection of the positive influence Nene had/has. He's clearly helped Seraphin since coming over to the Wiz. I don't know if you can chalk up some of Vesely's improved play to Nene as well, but he (Ves) certainly hasn't gotten worse. Not sure how much Nene played with Faried in the same lineup, but I'm starting to think there might be something there.

I continue to like this trade more and more every day.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

So I've been casually watching the Nuggets' box scores since the trade, and it seemed like every time I looked, Faried's numbers were not as impressive as they had seemed leading up to the trade. I know CCJ and some of the other McGee supporters will think I'm picking on our Prodigal Son, but I started to think that McGee was Kryptonite to Faried's Superman.

Faried had a stretch right before the trade where he had double digits in GameScore (I'm using from basketball-reference because I don't have per-game PER data) 7 times in a 10 game stretch, and 5 of those 7 were at 16 or higher. Since the trade, he's had double digit GameScore in 8 out of 20 games - almost half the rate he had before. And 4 of those 8 were in the 10-12 range (with one monster game against GS bringing up the average).

But then it dawned on me - perhaps this isn't an indictment on McGee as much as it is a reflection of the positive influence Nene had/has. He's clearly helped Seraphin since coming over to the Wiz. I don't know if you can chalk up some of Vesely's improved play to Nene as well, but he (Ves) certainly hasn't gotten worse. Not sure how much Nene played with Faried in the same lineup, but I'm starting to think there might be something there.

I continue to like this trade more and more every day.

Believe it or not, Spence, I totally agree. Since Javale came to the Nuggets Faried has been routine to below average. He's not playing with the same bounce or confidence. But it is not because Nene has left the Nuggets. Faried was balling with Nene out of the lineup entirely. He's the main reason they traded Nene IMO. That along with the return of Wilson Chandler and their desire to resign him.

I really don't know what is going on with Denver, but they're not playing with any sort of consistency at all.

[Severn Hoos]

Spence? Well, I'll take it as a compliment....

And good call, Nene was out most of that hot stretch from Faried. But I still think it's possible that he could have helped KF even while he was on the sidelines.

Now Luke needs to realize his Obi-Wan has gone, and learn to use the force for himself....

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Spence? Well, I'll take it as a compliment....

And good call, Nene was out most of that hot stretch from Faried. But I still think it's possible that he could have helped KF even while he was on the sidelines.

Now Luke needs to realize his Obi-Wan has gone, and learn to use the force for himself....

Sorry, Sev.

I think I must have had 2 windows open or just got through responding to another post ... That, or I'm just not aging well at all.

I agree with you that Nene is a better running mate with Faried. I didn't think so at all prior to the deal. I was wrong. Javale's not as good as I thought. I hate to concede so soon, but it looks like I was wrong in a big way.

[Dat2U]

So I've been casually watching the Nuggets' box scores since the trade, and it seemed like every time I looked, Faried's numbers were not as impressive as they had seemed leading up to the trade. I know CCJ and some of the other McGee supporters will think I'm picking on our Prodigal Son, but I started to think that McGee was Kryptonite to Faried's Superman.

Faried had a stretch right before the trade where he had double digits in GameScore (I'm using from basketball-reference because I don't have per-game PER data) 7 times in a 10 game stretch, and 5 of those 7 were at 16 or higher. Since the trade, he's had double digit GameScore in 8 out of 20 games - almost half the rate he had before. And 4 of those 8 were in the 10-12 range (with one monster game against GS bringing up the average).

But then it dawned on me - perhaps this isn't an indictment on McGee as much as it is a reflection of the positive influence Nene had/has. He's clearly helped Seraphin since coming over to the Wiz. I don't know if you can chalk up some of Vesely's improved play to Nene as well, but he (Ves) certainly hasn't gotten worse. Not sure how much Nene played with Faried in the same lineup, but I'm starting to think there might be something there.

I continue to like this trade more and more every day.

Or maybe your just looking for something that isn't there?

Could it be that Faried just hit the rookie wall?

And maybe Seraphin is playing better because he's getting consistent minutes and starting now?

[Rafael122]

Didn't Faried have a sick 27 and 17 game like 10 days ago tho?

[Upper Decker]

Glad Swaggy P doesn't listen to coach about his bad shots...clearly he knows better. Keep the swag rollin N1.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2vxRKC1YAA[/youtube]

[7-Day Dray]

Everytime I watch McGee, he looks winded. He's never going to be a great player if he doesn't get that asthma fixed.

[dobrojim]

maybe the asthma isn't fixable to the extent that it would need to be for him
to be the kind of NBA player he would be otherwise.

Faried was playing great. Lately not quite so well. Could be rookie
wall, could be he's simply reverting to what was expected from him
all along. I don't claim to know which one it is.

This time next year would be a reasonable time to evaluate the trade
after Nene helps us to the playoffs.

[Nivek]

Re: Faried, I've looked at the game log for the full season. I'm not seeing much of a decline or "reverting to what was expected". Since Nene was traded, he's down 0.8 offensive rebounds per 36 minutes. He's shooting about as much, scoring a little more because he's actually been slightly more efficient. Assists, steals, blocks -- all up. So are his turnovers.

He's had a few bad games, but he had some before the trade too. He had a 3-game stretch of "meh" games -- which coincided with a 3-games in 4 nights schedule -- with travel in between each of the games. Then he got a couple days of rest and came back with 18 points (on 13 shots) and 14 rebounds in 27 minutes against Phoenix.

[dobrojim]

fair enough

I liked Faried before the draft last year. He's clearly done well. Quite well in fact.
But I also think some have gone a little overboard in their man-crush for him.

[Severn Hoos]

Yeah, I suppose I might be looking for something that isn't there (though I've never done that before ), and mostly just like to stir the pot. That said...

My impression (an admittedly very superficial one) is that the trendline for his season would start out at 0, then bounce along for a while as he got his feet wet, with an explosion in Feb. He had an incredible 10-game stretch, which sent everyone salivating. Then - and this fairly closely corresponds with the timing of the trade, though I really do think that is more coincidence than anything - he had a stretch where he looked kinda average again, with a couple games that made you go "Wow!" but a lot of others that were sorta "meh." Not that he was a negative to the team at any point, just that he wasn't keeping up that incredible stretch.

Now, as we look at the past 10-20 games, it's a lot of nice game (12/8, 11/7, 10/11), a couple duds, and a couple incredible ones (27/17, 18/14). Again - maybe just an impression, but it seems like there's more variance there than you find from most players. But even that's a good thing in that it just means his good games are that much better than the average good game, making the delta seem larger.

Is this the rookie wall? That's quite possible, especially with the compressed schedule. Heck, one of my faves, Ilyasova, went from Player of the Week (32/10, 26/3, 31/12 while shooting better than 70% from the floor and almost 80% from 3) to 4/3, 7/4, and a DNP the next week - largely due to fatigue and wear & tear.

Faried will be a very good player for years to come. In order to be elite, I do think he'll need to show the consistency that you expect from great players, but I'll definitely cut him some slack during this ridiculous excuse for a season.

[Nivek]

My guess is that the "more variance" theory might be a reach too. Depends on what you mean by "most players". Compared to established veterans, maybe. Compared to rookies? Maybe not. I studied "consistency" a few years ago. I don't have time at the moment to get a bunch of players into my consistency calculator.

That said, I ran Faried through, and his overall performance variance looks pretty normal. (It's tough to compare to my previous study because I've changed my based measure.) It's easier to compare individual categories, and in those -- he looks basically "industry standard".

As for trendline -- it sorta depends on which trendline you're using. Using just a linear trendline for his per minute overall rating, it's basically a flat line with a very slight uptick as the season goes on. Use something with a higher R-squared, the line is pretty flat once he started playing in late January. There's a gradual rise through February to a minor peak in late-Feb/early March, then a modest down-slope for a couple weeks, then a rise to a new minor peak (about at the same level as the Feb/Mar peak). But, basically, his game-by-game performance looks pretty normal.

I'll almost certainly revisit this issue in the summer.

[verbal8]

Faried will be a very good player for years to come. In order to be elite, I do think he'll need to show the consistency that you expect from great players, but I'll definitely cut him some slack during this ridiculous excuse for a season.

Faried is having a great rookie season.

A comparison to similar rookies and 2nd year players.

http://bkref.com/tiny/2zPNP

Kind of interesting the older players are HOF, but the more recent are a role player and a good, but not great player.


You could argue it is nearly as good as Chris Paul's rookie season. However Paul was a 20 year old PG, rather than a 22 year old athletic Forward. Powe and Lee plateaued from their season, where the HOF players built on promising rookie years with continued improvement.

[nate33]

Points per possession numbers:

Code: Select all

Condition     Pace   OffEff  DefEff  Diff    Wins  Losses
With Nene     93.0   101.8    94.0   +7.8     5      4     
After Trade   93.2    99.5   100.2   -0.7     9     14   
Before Trade  95.8    97.9   106.9   -9.0     9     32   

And if you ignore the Knicks game:

Code: Select all

Condition     Pace   OffEff  DefEff  Diff    Wins  Losses
With Nene     93.0   101.8    94.0   +7.8     5      4     
After Trade   93.1   100.9    99.8   +1.1     9     13   
Before Trade  95.8    97.9   106.9   -9.0     9     32   

Point differential is a better predictor of future performance than win/loss record. Since the Nene trade, the team has a -0.7 point differential even though Nene has missed 13 of the 22 games. That indicates a near .500 team. If you write off the 40 point loss to NY as an outlier (I know, you shouldn't do this), then the team has a +1.1. point differential.

If you look only at the games that Nene has played, the team has a ridiculous +7.8 point differential, which would tie them with Oklahoma City as the third best team in the league. (Obviously, sample size is an issue.)

[fishercob]

Strength of schedule too.

[nate33]

Strength of schedule too.

The schedule with Nene hasn't been that weak:
@ NJ
vs IND
vs ATL
vs DET
@ IND
vs PHI
vs MIL
@ MIA
vs CHA

That's 4 solid playoff teams, 2 borderline playoff teams and 3 bad teams. That's probably worse than average schedule, but it's not like they played Charlotte 3 times. By the way, that +7.8 differential with Nene would tie the Wizards for 3rd with OKC. The 94.0 points allowed per 100 possessions would lead the league in defense.

[GhostsOfGil]

Points per possession numbers:

Code: Select all

Condition     Pace   OffEff  DefEff  Diff    Wins  Losses
With Nene     93.0   101.8    94.0   +7.8     5      4     
After Trade   93.2    99.5   100.2   -0.7     9     14   
Before Trade  95.8    97.9   106.9   -9.0     9     32   

And if you ignore the Knicks game:

Code: Select all

Condition     Pace   OffEff  DefEff  Diff    Wins  Losses
With Nene     93.0   101.8    94.0   +7.8     5      4     
After Trade   93.1   100.9    99.8   +1.1     9     13   
Before Trade  95.8    97.9   106.9   -9.0     9     32   

^ and IIRC in 3 of those losses, the wiz had huge leads they blew (against playoff teams).

It could have very well been 8 and 1 instead of 5 and 4.