2012 NBA Draft - Part III

[Zonkerbl]

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/22 ... _Pro_Level

Good thing that Jae Crowder wants to play SG in the NBA?

Had no idea he was so fat. 245 at 6'6"? Holy cow.

[nate33]

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/220664/Jae_Crowder_Aims_To_Lose_Weight_Switch_Positions_At_Pro_Level

Good thing that Jae Crowder wants to play SG in the NBA?

Had no idea he was so fat. 245 at 6'6"? Holy cow.

I actually consider this a positive. It means he may be even more athletic than we have seen so far.

It also doesn't concern me too much from a work ethic standpoint. It's understandable that a guy in a college setting can pack on a few extra pounds. Get him a real trainer and structured diet and those pounds will melt away.

[Jay81]

Agree on all these guys.

Guys in the draft I'm very skeptical off:

1. Austin Rivers... production doesn't match name. Lowest PER of any draft eligible underclassmen. Good shot creator and nice first step but not an elite athlete. Undersized SG. Not PG skills whatsoever.

Shot creation is borderline worthless unless the shots go through the hoop. Rivers shot the 3 decently, but was awful inside the arc and (red flag) from the FT line. His poor efficiency can't be explained away by high usage because his usage wasn't actually all that high (about 17 possessions per 40 minutes -- AVERAGE for the 157 players I've evaluated for this year's draft is 16.0 possessions used per 40). Average efficiency among those players: 112 points produced per 100 possessions. Rivers: 101. Then add in that Rivers doesn't rebound, assist, steal the ball, or block shots. His game is shooting (and not all that well) and turnovers. I think his game and his body need a TON of work.

2. Tyshawn Taylor... Talented but low IQ athlete who's too unreliable to be a backup PG on the next level. Very streaky, can go stretches were he's absolutely terrible. Hit and miss decision maker on his best days.

I have him with a "don't draft" rating. Which is not a good sign considering that he's a senior.

3. Tony Wroten. Tyreke Evans Jr. Ball dominate SG masquerading as a PG. Has flashy passing skills but no clue how to run a team. Displayed terrible shot selection and had terrible efficiency his freshman season. I don't see how he fits within a team concept.

Awful shooting from everywhere -- below 50% from 2pt range, below 20% from 3pt range, below 60% from the FT line. Good athlete. Looks great on the floor. His game is bad. 5.0 assists per 40 looks nice until you notice the 5.1 turnovers per 40. He was even less efficient than Rivers -- 94 points produced per 100 possessions. I have him with a mid-2nd round score.

4. Maurice Harkless. Very inefficient at this stage. Shot selection is in question. Really needed to return to school for seasoning. A project.

Agree with every word. End of the 2nd round grade in YODA.

5. Royce White. Far too turnover prone to continue the same role in college. How effective & how engaged will he be without being the focal point of the offense. Not to mention the off-court concerns he has. Too many questions to be a #1 round pick IMO.

Another guy with a "don't draft" rating in YODA. Maybe a late 2nd round pick based on the unusual passing skills for a PF. But, any enthusiasm I'd have him for would be tempered by the turnovers.

Nivek,

I probably missed this but whats your Yoda say about Harrison Barnes? I think he would be an ideal fit for SF for washington at the # 6 pick if we get screwed

[Nivek]

YODA has Barnes with a late 1st/early 2nd round rating. That might change when draft camp measurements are published. I wouldn't pick him 6th overall.

[Upper Decker]

I'm not sure what the dollar difference is between last years top 3 and this years 7-10 range, but Perry Jones, Harrison Barnes, and Jared Sullinger literally cost themselves millions. Barnes would have absolutely been a top-3 last year. Sullinger would proabably have gone top 5 and Jones would have been top 7. Each have likely dropped 4-6 picks each.

[DCZards]

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/220664/Jae_Crowder_Aims_To_Lose_Weight_Switch_Positions_At_Pro_Level

Good thing that Jae Crowder wants to play SG in the NBA?

Had no idea he was so fat. 245 at 6'6"? Holy cow.

I actually consider this a positive. It means he may be even more athletic than we have seen so far.

It also doesn't concern me too much from a work ethic standpoint. It's understandable that a guy in a college setting can pack on a few extra pounds. Get him a real trainer and structured diet and those pounds will melt away.

Jae will also need a better handle, an improved jumper and the ability to take people off the dribble if he plans on being a SG in the NBA.

[Ruzious]

I'm not sure what the dollar difference is between last years top 3 and this years 7-10 range, but Perry Jones, Harrison Barnes, and Jared Sullinger literally cost themselves millions. Barnes would have absolutely been a top-3 last year. Sullinger would proabably have gone top 5 and Jones would have been top 7. Each have likely dropped 4-6 picks each.

True, but I take it as a positive that he wants to take on that challenge. Personally, I think he's strictly a 3, but I wouldn't be surprised if he can eventually play some 2.

[Mizerooskie]

YODA has Barnes with a late 1st/early 2nd round rating. That might change when draft camp measurements are published. I wouldn't pick him 6th overall.

Don't you mean "a late 1st/early 2nd round rating, YODA has Barnes"?

[Dat2U]

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/220664/Jae_Crowder_Aims_To_Lose_Weight_Switch_Positions_At_Pro_Level

Good thing that Jae Crowder wants to play SG in the NBA?

Had no idea he was so fat. 245 at 6'6"? Holy cow.

I actually consider this a positive. It means he may be even more athletic than we have seen so far.

It also doesn't concern me too much from a work ethic standpoint. It's understandable that a guy in a college setting can pack on a few extra pounds. Get him a real trainer and structured diet and those pounds will melt away.

Jae will also need a better handle, an improved jumper and the ability to take people off the dribble if he plans on being a SG in the NBA.

Jae can talk about changing positions all he wants but he's a 3 in the NBA hands down. But I definitely like what I'm hearing from him. Based on everytihng including his YODA rating , he's looking a like a draft steal waiting to happen.

[pcbothwel]

WOW...Quincy Miller is entering the draft now. I would love for him to fall to our 2nd pick...but doubtful. There are really a lot of guys between 18-25 that would be steals that i would love to trade up for.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Agree on all these guys.

Guys in the draft I'm very skeptical off:

5. Royce White. Far too turnover prone to continue the same role in college. How effective & how engaged will he be without being the focal point of the offense. Not to mention the off-court concerns he has. Too many questions to be a #1 round pick IMO.

Another guy with a "don't draft" rating in YODA. Maybe a late 2nd round pick based on the unusual passing skills for a PF. But, any enthusiasm I'd have him for would be tempered by the turnovers.

Watching Royce White rise so high in pre-draft rankings while another guy who consistently outperforms him is rated low; this reminds me somewhat of the year Paul Millsap was not drafted until #47 in the second round but Shelden Williams was drafted #5 overall.

Shelden was a player I did like because the Wizards needed shot blocking. However, I strongly felt Millsap was going to be a much better player. Millsap's rebounding for three years was the best. Millsap also managed over 2 blocks and 2 steals. His stats stood out in ways Shelden's did not. When I read the hype concerning Royce White, I can't help but look at the body of work from Draymond Green. Green as far as I am concerned projects to be the better player.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pla ... een-1.html
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pla ... elog/2012/

The first shows his career stats, and how Green dominated the Big Ten as a senior. The second, games logs, show how Green had a triple double in the NCAAs. He went out on a string of double doubles. Green displayed three point range and shot threes well (a little better than Harrison Barnes). Draymond passed, rebounded, and shot well from deep.

Contrast this with Royce White.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pla ... ite-1.html

White is a better finisher, but that is all he does better IMO. His increased assists come with way more turnovers than Green. His FT shooting is atrocious. White also has the opposite of stability of Green. Draymond played 4 years and is a team leader, highly respected by none other than Tom Izzo. White played one year at ISU after some issues at Minnesota.

I think it is amazing that White is going to be drafted higher than Green. Green is going to be like Jared Dudley IMO.

[Dr Positivity]

Nivek, what does YODA say about Miles Plumlee? I'm looking at his rebounding and 2P%/TS% stats + being a 6'11 guy with good athleticism, and wondering why in the world he's projected to go undrafted. Potential Cs with good physical tools who rebound and score at a high efficiency are a rare asset in the league

[dobrojim]

CCJ, thanks for the reminder on Green. In my fascination with Crowder, I
had almost forgot about him. He could be a really nice pickup for us
with a later pick if Crowder isn't there. That said, IIIRC Green is currently
more highly rated on DX than Crowder is so maybe thinking that Green
would be available after Crowder won't be the way it happens.

[Nivek]

Plumlee is interesting. As a senior, he has a late 2nd round rating in YODA, but that's without any adjustment for athleticism. I'll be interested to see his draft camp scores. Still, based on the info available now, he looks underrated by the draft sites. DX has him 85th; NBADraft doesn't have him in their top 100. I'd rank around the 45-55 range depending on who stays in the draft, team needs, etc.

I need to get more centers into YODA. Right now, his closest comps (in terms of final ratings) are for sophomores: Jeff Withey, Reggie Johnson, Tyler Zeller, Gorgui Dieng, Joel Przybilla.

[Nivek]

CCJ -- I remember your take on Millsap and Shelden. In YODA, Shelden rated as a top 5 pick -- but Millsap rated better. Millsap had the rating of a #1 pick overall in many years.

YODA likes Draymond Green more than Royce White. Green rates as a solid 2nd round pick.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

CCJ, thanks for the reminder on Green. In my fascination with Crowder, I
had almost forgot about him. He could be a really nice pickup for us
with a later pick if Crowder isn't there. That said, IIIRC Green is currently
more highly rated on DX than Crowder is so maybe thinking that Green
would be available after Crowder won't be the way it happens.

jim, Crowder is being extremely underrated by DX.

Green has somewhat similar credentials to Crowder. Both guys have been playing PF and will have to play SF at the next level. Crowder, however, is a lot more athletic, a lot quicker laterally, he's more accurate, and he's far less turnover-prone. On top of that, Crowder has the range to play passing lanes for steals and dunks. Jae is going to be a very good pro--a starter at SF, and a good one IMO.

EDITED TO ADD: Draymond at SF will rebound it like Millsap. Green above all is an elite rebounder. He is a better rebounder than even Jae Crowder.

Green projects to me, like Jared Dudley. He will scratch out a role and if he can lose weight it wouldn't shock me to see Draymond Green become a serviceably decent starter. Here's the opinion of another fan/scout on Green:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1143 ... -prospects

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

CCJ -- I remember your take on Millsap and Shelden. In YODA, Shelden rated as a top 5 pick -- but Millsap rated better. Millsap had the rating of a #1 pick overall in many years.

YODA likes Draymond Green more than Royce White. Green rates as a solid 2nd round pick.

I like YODA. He knows his stuff.

[fishercob]

Except the part about SHelden Williams being a top 5 pick....

[Liverbird]

CCJ - I love that you're high on Draymond. I bleed green and white and to me, he has all the skill and intangibles I would want in a player on the Wizards. I'm trying to balance my affection for Draymond with the likelihood that he's the ultimate tweeter. He's not as athletic as Crowder and based on the eye test, not as long as Millsap or even Dudley. Played SF as a Frosh but mostly as a PF since. I'm afraid his lack of length and athleticism will prohibit the impact he had in college. I'd certainly take a 2nd round flyer if he's around, but I'd prefer Crowder...and it pains me to say that b/c I've got great respect for what he's done for Sparty.

[jangles86]

What's the chances of Quincy Miller falling out of first round to our second round pick? I think he and John Wall went to the same high school?

I doubt if he has declared he wouldn't have a promise