Put closgoo on suicide watch: Ernie gets extended

[montestewart]

EG is on 106.7 with Mike Wise right now. Main thing is he is now shooting for the playoffs next year.

Fine, then let the draft and off-season reflect this desire. If we bring-back Mack I won't be as hopeful.

Whether or not Shelvin Mack returns is your barometer for the success of the offseason?

are you dissin the S'Mack?

[colts18]

I'm going to repost this again. Stop looking at these moves in a vacuum and look at the big picture (overall results). Even looking at a vacuum won't make a pig look sexy.

last 4 seasons:
09: 19 wins, -6.98 SRS (28th)
10: 26 wins, -4.72 SRS (26th)
11: 23 wins, -7.30 SRS (29th)
12: 18 wins, -5.98 SRS (28th)

Over the last 4 years, The Wizards are 29th in wins, and last place in SRS. Since when do you reward a guy who builds a roster with a 22 win average and was the worst team in the last 4 seasons? That is why the Wizards have been a loser franchise over the last 4 seasons. Even in the 4 playoff years the Wizards averaged a negative SRS.

During Ernie's entire tenure, the Wizards are 29th in wins and 29th in SRS. 2nd worst team.

[fishercob]

I'm going to repost this again. Stop looking at these moves in a vacuum and look at the big picture (overall results). Even looking at a vacuum won't make a pig look sexy.

last 4 seasons:
09: 19 wins, -6.98 SRS (28th)
10: 26 wins, -4.72 SRS (26th)
11: 23 wins, -7.30 SRS (29th)
12: 18 wins, -5.98 SRS (28th)

Over the last 4 years, The Wizards are 29th in wins, and last place in SRS. Since when do you reward a guy who builds a roster with a 22 win average and was the worst team in the last 4 seasons? That is why the Wizards have been a loser franchise over the last 4 seasons. Even in the 4 playoff years the Wizards averaged a negative SRS.

During Ernie's entire tenure, the Wizards are 29th in wins and 29th in SRS. 2nd worst team.

"I posted something once, and since it didn't get the message board equivalent of a standing ovation that it undoubtedly deserved, I'll go ahead and post it again."

You're not breaking any news that the Wizards have sucked for a while. But for three of those four years, the Wizards have sucked by design. The Pistons have a much better record over that four year stretch, but have ended up with crappy draft spots (and lucked in to Greg Monroe). Barring a minor miracle they'll fail to get an impact guy again this year. But at least their SRS has been better than the Wizards for the last four years.

[Saqs]

The league is filled with players who were passed on by 10-20+ other GMs & players who were drafted in the top 10 that are supposed to be impact "stars". Are the GMs that happen to miss on these unlucky or incompetent? Is the Pacers GM a genious for "finding" Hibbert, Granger, and Paul or just lucky?

This argument is pretty much timeless and will forever go either way. Ernie has had his share of good & bad ((both in hindsight) dealings. Whether they were unlucky or incompetent ones is all up to the individual and can be argued forever.

[colts18]

I'm going to repost this again. Stop looking at these moves in a vacuum and look at the big picture (overall results). Even looking at a vacuum won't make a pig look sexy.

last 4 seasons:
09: 19 wins, -6.98 SRS (28th)
10: 26 wins, -4.72 SRS (26th)
11: 23 wins, -7.30 SRS (29th)
12: 18 wins, -5.98 SRS (28th)

Over the last 4 years, The Wizards are 29th in wins, and last place in SRS. Since when do you reward a guy who builds a roster with a 22 win average and was the worst team in the last 4 seasons? That is why the Wizards have been a loser franchise over the last 4 seasons. Even in the 4 playoff years the Wizards averaged a negative SRS.

During Ernie's entire tenure, the Wizards are 29th in wins and 29th in SRS. 2nd worst team.

"I posted something once, and since it didn't get the message board equivalent of a standing ovation that it undoubtedly deserved, I'll go ahead and post it again."

You're not breaking any news that the Wizards have sucked for a while. But for three of those four years, the Wizards have sucked by design. The Pistons have a much better record over that four year stretch, but have ended up with crappy draft spots (and lucked in to Greg Monroe). Barring a minor miracle they'll fail to get an impact guy again this year. But at least their SRS has been better than the Wizards for the last four years.

It needs to be repeated a million times before the Erniebots get it. The guy had 9 years and was the 2nd worst franchise during that span. No matter the measure, Ernie has been an unequivocal failure. At best you can you say he is mediocre. That is not what the franchise needs. If it wants to succeed, it needs to stride higher than mediocrity. It needs to realize that 45 win playoff seasons as your best is not a success, but rather should be considered a mediocre season. The franchise will never be a contender under Ernie. What's the best case scenario you could see Ernie being: maybe the current Atlanta Hawks who are perennial 2nd round fodder.

[jimij]

I can live with Ernie coming back. I will be upset it Wittman is fired though. I kinda think the only reason EG is returning is because Ted wants to retain Wittman for a year and you can't do that if you hire a new GM. A new GM is going to want his own guy.

I sincerely hope that this is the case. While Wittman's W/L record as a head coach is nothing to write home about he's also been in some pretty bad scenarios with the teams he's taken over. Given the change in mentality of this team which I don't think is entirely due to the trade and the fact that the younger players are definitely showing improvement on his watch, I'm hoping that Wittman gets the chance to see what he can do next year with an improved roster.

I might have to give up my season ticket plan if we get the combo platter of Grunfeld/D'Antoni next year (of the retreads the only one I'd be interested in is Stan Van Gundy once he's fired) but I can deal with EG for another year if Wittman is brought back.

Here's hoping that the second year of EG's deal isn't guaranteed.....

[TGW]

From what I've been hearing on the radio, Grunfeld's deal is worth far less than the previous one he signed under Abe. Basically, if he screws up again, he's gone.

Danny Rouhier (sp?) ripped the Wizards a new one on the radio today. It was hard to disagree with what he was saying (basically what most of the EG haters have been saying). To sum things up, his biggest problem with EG is that he fostered an environment where knuckleheads ran the locker room without repercussion. He wasn't as negative as far as the individual moves were concerned, but he hated the environment that was created during the Grunfeld regime. Can't say I disagree.

[Rafael122]

Can Nivek or someone explain this advanced camera thing Ernie is apparently using?

[montestewart]

Can Nivek or someone explain this advanced camera thing Ernie is apparently using?

I searched for more on that claim, and all I could find referred to the original statement on Ted's Take. Maybe they've been keeping it under wraps, or maybe Leonsis was a little ahead of himself in selling its functionality. Either way, I don't know jack. Speak up, whoever has a clue.

[The Consiglieri]

Ves, Book, Sera were all good picks. Blatche (for his position), McGee, and Young weren't bad either. Singleton was a gamble at 18, though most thought he'd be better.

Where EG has epic-failed is in resigning players.

Yep, in terms of drafting, the only fair indictments of the man were selling off second rounders when the team was mediocre at best, trading our top draft pick in 2009 for a bunch of crap, and repeatedly making insanely idiotic signings once the team actually appeared to be moderately good (every single signing/resigning he made after he stole Arenas from the Warriors through an obnoxious loophole was insanely idiotic and crippled us for years). He's handled blowing up the team fairly well, but so what, he caused the disaster, he should have been fired, and a young, hungry, metrics obssessive from a great organization with some old school scouts to irritate him should have been the reorg of the team. Not simply doubling down on a guy who has only shown an ability to build mediocre squads, and make insanely idiotic resignings to insure he wont get canned for the forseeable future.

Bringing him back depresses me to no end, as it suggests that the Caps and Boulez are both being run by an owner who lacks the perspective necessary to know when to keep someone in place, and when to act. Its a delicate balance, but its pretty clear Leonsis is on the wrong side of it.

In fairness to EG, he actually was either outstanding or very good drafting with us every single year. Whatever one may say about his drafts, the facts are, every single pick he's made was either the best possible pick at slot, or damn close to it save for the Pecherov pick, and he's made some truly outstanding selections. Blatche may be an idiot and a cancer, and I may want him out, but he was still one of the best value/slot picks in the 2nd round the previous decade. He'd definitely make the top 10 anyway. And of course Young and McGee and so many others may have been frustrating but they were also nearly uniformally the best guy available when we picked.

That's what made 2009 so infuriating. he threw away a highly valuable pick he probably would have maximized for a giant pile of rent-a-manure.

[TGW]

In addition, Ernie and his staff have created one of the most technologically advanced basketball operations departments in the NBA. We now are able to evaluate talent with a unique use of high-speed cameras and an innovative approach to statistics

I'd like to know a bit more about this.

They're one of six teams to implement this technology. It's basically an optical tracking system -- pretty similar (if not identical) to Sandy Weil's tracking project that he's presented on at Sloan. Some of the info is useful and provides insights. Some of it, not so much. Like ALL basketball data, the real value is in the analyst, not the data itself.

As of now, their analysts are Bob Bellotti (not very impressive unless he's radically revamped what he does -- side note: he ripped off something I did and included it in his reports), Joe Sill and Ryan Saunders.

I don't know how good Saunders is with the numbers. Sill developed regularized adjusted plus minus (RAPM), which uses ridge regression to improve the accuracy and reliability of adjusted plus-minus.

[The Consiglieri]

This has become a Ted MO. He kept McPhee for what, 13 years? He has never fired a GM in either franchise so I'm sure he'll keep GMGM even if the Caps lose Game 7. Maybe Hunter can coach the Wizards?

D'Antoni shouldn't coach another game in the NBA unless he hires a decent defensive coordinator. I have no problem with Witt but I'm more intrigued with what Nate McMillan can do with this team. Oh well. That's the reason we're all BULLETS fans (if you keep Grunfeld, at least change the effing name).

In fairness to GMGM, he has been drafting unbelievably brilliantly. It's just unfortunate that both the caps and wizards lack a genuine team identity, and are poorly constructed teams made up of fantastic finds over the past decade, but not a coherent hole. If you doubt me, look at the caps drafts in the 90's, particularly after we got 5 first rounders for Scott Stevens. We missed on just about EVERY SINGLE ONE. I think we may have gotten Gonchar w/one but that's it. The entire 90's collection of drafts reads like some horrible SAW IV release exclusively designed for NHL draftniks (or just draftniks like me). Once the team was overhauled in '04 and the scout department fixed the Caps started drafting brilliantly year after year after year. The drafts are a whose who of fantastic finds, particularly in low slots. In '04 we got Ovie, Schultz (gag), and Mike Green, '05 was a disaster after being hosed by the NHL, '06 we got Backstrom, Varlamov (after demanding a trade or he'd leave for Russia, we managed to turn him into the 11th overall pick this year, and either the Bruins 2nd this year, or the Avs' 2nd next year), and Neuvie, '07 from Alzner, '08 brought Carlson and Holtby, '09 brought Johannson, Orlov and Eakin, '10 brought Kuznetsov (taken at #24 and now viewed as the #1 overall prospect not playing in the NHL right now) and Galiev.

So I can see GMGM staying, even w/the issues. He mastered the rebuild, built a team that consistently finished 1st, but could not win in the playoffs (like the sharks) so out with the old, in w/the new and the team has struggled since (like the Sharks). A lot of pieces, no clear identity, plus the centerpiece (Ovie) appears to be a self-absorbed prima donna that doesnt take his offseasons seriously. I think he's done the best he could all things considered and the results have been good though not great.

EG? A hellvalot less to recommend him sticking around.

[doclinkin]

Let me reiterate-- unless reports are wrong, the word is that GMEG has only been extended for 2 years. A 2 year contract in basketball is working under the gun. It's one year to get work done and one year of be-damn-good-or-get-fired.

Ted's message has been clear: tank for as long as it takes to get superior talent. Add players who are tough and defensive minded. Trade to get a player-and-a-pick whenever you do trade (not to sell off picks and assets, but pick up future options). And after a painful period of suck, add veterans in key positions to push for the playoffs, but only use free agency to add low income roleplayers that complement your stars. Preserve cap space for maximum flexibility.

In the past 2 years under a mandate to tank and stockpile talent Ernie has done a pretty good job of following the first steps of Ted's direction. Just a fact. The question now is whether he has the foresight and insight to make the next moves.

Look I've been following Ernie since the Ewing Knicks. He got fired because he defied his ownership and dropped Patrick et al just before his decline. And was vindicated when the team that he built went on to significant success. Since then, the lesson he learned was clearly that of following his owner's direction to save his own bacon. In this case the real question is whether Ted's plan has merit as a blueprint for the NBA.

I think the franchise is poised to improve significantly. Ernie is competent more than visionary. But I don't think the franchise is doomed under his direction. Could be better in many respects, and we'd all love it if Teddy listened to each of our pet plans and put them into action. But the overreaction out in Wizfandom is kinda stupid and really ridiculously histrionic. Could be worse. We've seen worse. Ernie or not I think we're on a decent path to improve significantly.

[Bickerstaff]

But the overreaction out in Wizfandom is kinda stupid and really ridiculously histrionic.

Wait, you don't think the Darius Songaila signing was an insanely idiotic move that crippled the franchise for years?

[Bickerstaff]

"I posted something once, and since it didn't get the message board equivalent of a standing ovation that it undoubtedly deserved, I'll go ahead and post it again."

You're not breaking any news that the Wizards have sucked for a while. But for three of those four years, the Wizards have sucked by design. The Pistons have a much better record over that four year stretch, but have ended up with crappy draft spots (and lucked in to Greg Monroe). Barring a minor miracle they'll fail to get an impact guy again this year. But at least their SRS has been better than the Wizards for the last four years.

Hehe. Plus, it kind of ignores the fact that the team's centerpiece got hurt, then hurt again, then brought guns to the locker room. Not sure a shrewder GM could have prevented that. Also, people blaming the "knucklehead culture" on EG forget that he traded 3 of the 4 knuckleheads and never extended Young or McGee. He rolled the dice on Blatche, but Blatche was outperforming his contract and had the potential to be a real bargain long term. It didn't work out (so far. So far...), but it wasn't an idiotic move.

[terperoni]

Ernie is horrible. He should have been let go years ago. This is ridiculous.

[fishercob]

Let me reiterate-- unless reports are wrong, the word is that GMEG has only been extended for 2 years. A 2 year contract in basketball is working under the gun. It's one year to get work done and one year of be-damn-good-or-get-fired.

Ted's message has been clear: tank for as long as it takes to get superior talent. Add players who are tough and defensive minded. Trade to get a player-and-a-pick whenever you do trade (not to sell off picks and assets, but pick up future options). And after a painful period of suck, add veterans in key positions to push for the playoffs, but only use free agency to add low income roleplayers that complement your stars. Preserve cap space for maximum flexibility.

In the past 2 years under a mandate to tank and stockpile talent Ernie has done a pretty good job of following the first steps of Ted's direction. Just a fact. The question now is whether he has the foresight and insight to make the next moves.

Look I've been following Ernie since the Ewing Knicks. He got fired because he defied his ownership and dropped Patrick et al just before his decline. And was vindicated when the team that he built went on to significant success. Since then, the lesson he learned was clearly that of following his owner's direction to save his own bacon. In this case the real question is whether Ted's plan has merit as a blueprint for the NBA.

I think the franchise is poised to improve significantly. Ernie is competent more than visionary. But I don't think the franchise is doomed under his direction. Could be better in many respects, and we'd all love it if Teddy listened to each of our pet plans and put them into action. But the overreaction out in Wizfandom is kinda stupid and really ridiculously histrionic. Could be worse. We've seen worse. Ernie or not I think we're on a decent path to improve significantly.

Just seeing this. As usual, doc puts it a lot better than I could have. It seems like a lot of people are caught up in the injustice here. Ernie didn't deserve to keep his job, and yet he did. You've got to hand it to the guy -- that he could oversee this mess for this long and still keep his job is pretty impressive.

[Silvie Lysandra]

In the past 2 years under a mandate to tank and stockpile talent Ernie has done a pretty good job of following the first steps of Ted's direction. Just a fact. The question now is whether he has the foresight and insight to make the next moves.

We already know the answer to that question, and it is a resounding, ear-splitting NO!

Look I've been following Ernie since the Ewing Knicks. He got fired because he defied his ownership and dropped Patrick et al just before his decline. And was vindicated when the team that he built went on to significant success.

Actually, they were bounced in the first round after Ewing was traded and they didn't go back to the playoffs until last year. Significant success my ass.

Since then, the lesson he learned was clearly that of following his owner's direction to save his own bacon. In this case the real question is whether Ted's plan has merit as a blueprint for the NBA.

I thought his job description was to build a team that can contend for the NBA title? And I really doubt the dying Abe Pollin told him to trade Rubio for Mike Miller and Randy Foye - even if you wanted to acquire veteran talent to win now, maybe, I dunno, acquire talent that complements what you have? Also, none of that excuses the **** organization and the bad medical staff.

But the overreaction out in Wizfandom is kinda stupid and really ridiculously histrionic. Could be worse. We've seen worse

Actually, no we haven't. The Ernie/Ted combo has been the worst stretch in the history of this franchise. Sure we have a few nice young pieces now, but we've had a few nice young pieces in the past too. What counts is having the vision and foresight to translate it to a winning team, and the answer thus far has been no.

[Silvie Lysandra]

In the past 2 years under a mandate to tank and stockpile talent Ernie has done a pretty good job of following the first steps of Ted's direction. Just a fact. The question now is whether he has the foresight and insight to make the next moves.

We already know the answer to that question, and it is a resounding, ear-splitting NO!

Look I've been following Ernie since the Ewing Knicks. He got fired because he defied his ownership and dropped Patrick et al just before his decline. And was vindicated when the team that he built went on to significant success.

Actually, they were bounced in the first round after Ewing was traded and they didn't go back to the playoffs until last year. Significant success my ass.

Since then, the lesson he learned was clearly that of following his owner's direction to save his own bacon. In this case the real question is whether Ted's plan has merit as a blueprint for the NBA.

I thought his job description was to build a team that can contend for the NBA title? And I really doubt the dying Abe Pollin told him to trade Rubio for Mike Miller and Randy Foye - even if you wanted to acquire veteran talent to win now, maybe, I dunno, acquire talent that complements what you have? Also, none of that excuses the **** organization and the bad medical staff.

But the overreaction out in Wizfandom is kinda stupid and really ridiculously histrionic. Could be worse. We've seen worse

Actually, no we haven't. The Ernie/Ted combo has been the worst stretch in the history of this franchise. Sure we have a few nice young pieces now, but we've had a few nice young pieces in the past too. What counts is having the vision and foresight to translate it to a winning team, and the answer thus far has been no.

[Nivek]

Ernie didn't trade Ewing. He was fired as the Knicks GM in 1999 (the 98-99 season) -- Ewing got traded in 2000. That 98-99 season, Ewing hurt his hand or wrist and the team went to the Finals without him. The following season (with Ewing back) New York was the 3 seed. They went to the conference finals (sweeping the Heat) where they lost to the Pacers.