Summer 2012 Free Agents Thread - Part II

[nate33]

Link to old thread

[nate33]

Assuming we miss out on the 1st overall pick in this draft, we are likely going to be choosing between Beal and Gilchrist. If we draft Gilchrist, we will need shooters at PF and SG. If we play our cards right with Blatche and Lewis, can we afford Anderson this year and Harden next year? Would the following lineup even be worth the monetary investment?

Nene/Seraphin
Anderson
Gilchrist
Harden
Wall

I assume you mean Ryan Anderson of Orlando? The answer to your question is "No". We cannot afford Ryan Anderson this summer and Harden next summer. In order to afford Harden next summer, whatever free agent we sign this summer can't cost more than about $5M in 2013/14. Ryan Anderson will cost more than that.

Also, I'm no longer quite as enthusiastic about Ryan Anderson. Watching the decline in his production with Howard out has been a real eye opener. Anderson posted a TS% of 61% from the start of the season through March. In April, without Howard, his TS% his 50.2%. The guy goes from elite to awful depending on whether Howard is alongside him.

[Rafael122]

Agree with boomking saying that we need shooters at the 2 and 4, which is why Beal makes sense as our draft pick. We need outside shooting which he has, we have a glaring hole at the 2, which he can fill, so not only could he be the best player available, but he'd also fit a need.

I wonder how much Landry Fields would make in the open market? He's a 3 right?

[nate33]

Agree with boomking saying that we need shooters at the 2 and 4, which is why Beal makes sense as our draft pick. We need outside shooting which he has, we have a glaring hole at the 2, which he can fill, so not only could he be the best player available, but he'd also fit a need.

I wonder how much Landry Fields would make in the open market? He's a 3 right?

Landry Fields is overrated by the New York media market. He's a totally replaceable role player who will almost surely get overpaid this summer. He really isn't any better than someone like Cartier Martin. I'd rather just keep Martin for the vet minimum.

[gesa2]

Assuming we don't draft Davis or Robinson, I still like the idea of Ilyasova. Solves our defensive rebounding and shooting issues, could work with Nene or Seraphin as Centers or even play some small ball C himself if they get in foul trouble. Pushes Vesely to 5th big, but maybe that's where he should be on a decent team, at least until he can hit an 18 foot jumper.

[theboomking]

I assume you mean Ryan Anderson of Orlando? The answer to your question is "No". We cannot afford Ryan Anderson this summer and Harden next summer. In order to afford Harden next summer, whatever free agent we sign this summer can't cost more than about $5M in 2013/14. Ryan Anderson will cost more than that.

Also, I'm no longer quite as enthusiastic about Ryan Anderson. Watching the decline in his production with Howard out has been a real eye opener. Anderson posted a TS% of 61% from the start of the season through March. In April, without Howard, his TS% his 50.2%. The guy goes from elite to awful depending on whether Howard is alongside him.

I think Anderson would look very good as a Wizard, but wouldn't justify what it would take to sign him away from Orlando. Of course he doesn't look that good in Orlando without Dwight. They suck. In DC, he would have interior presences in Nene and Seraphin, and a drive and kick player in Wall. I would expect Ryan Anderson to produce here. He is just more valuable to Orlando than anyone else, since they are trying to keep Dwight. The only way Anderson isn't signed is if Dwight gets traded in the offseason.

The problem is, there just don't appear to be any incredible FA on the market for us in the next 2 years. Gordon is coming off a microfracture. Harden may well sign for less than market value to stay in OKC. Portland will match any offer on Batum. And...

[rockymac52]

Possible (somewhat realistic, IMO) free agent targets in the next two years:

2012:
Ersan Ilyasova
Eric Gordon (RFA)
Ryan Anderson (RFA)
Nic Batum (RFA)

2013:
Steph Curry (RFA)
James Harden (RFA)
Serge Ibaka (RFA)
Josh Smith
Andrew Bynum
Dwight Howard
Al Jefferson
Paul Millsap



We have a lot of cap space in these next two offseasons, so it would probably be in our best interest to use it while we can before it goes away. However, we only have enough cap space to offer 1 max contract or 1 larger contract (~8 to 12 million).

Personally I'd rather hold off this summer and wait for 2013 and take our chances on landing one of those guys. Guys like Ilyasova and Anderson intrigue me and could fill a much needed role on this team, but they simply won't be good enough to catapult the Wizards to title contenders (or even playoff contenders for that matter). I like Batum, but I don't think he's enough of a game changer either, and it seems like Portland is committed to matching any offer to Batum, so he's probably off limits anyways. Gordon is the one guy this summer that I'd be interested in. However, I think there's a very good chance the Hornets match any offer sheet Gordon signs, even if it's for a max contract. And of course, there are also concerns about his recent knee injury (fool me once...). I'd personally be interested at going after Gordon this summer, but I have a feeling we won't.

So now we move on to 2013, unless we manage to sign Gordon this summer, in which case we're done with major free agency moves. Of the 8 guys I listed above, I'd like to see all of them on our team. I like the idea of going after Harden like many of us here have advocated for, but I think OKC might go ahead and match any offer for him. I think if they had to choose between Harden and Ibaka, they'd go with Harden (that's pure conjecture on my part, so I could be wrong). I don't think we should go for Ibaka, because while he's young and talented, I don't think he's the game changer we need with this signing. Same goes for Millsap. I like him a lot, but he'd not good enough to make the Wizards title contenders IMO, so I'd avoid him unless all of our other preferred options fall through.

I'd like to extend an offer to Curry as well, although I'd fully expect the Warriors to match any offer for him. That leaves Smith, Bynum, Howard, and Jefferson. Howard may very well be on a new team with a new deal before the 2013 summer rolls around, so he might not end up being available. Even if he is, he'll probably only be interested in signing with a handful of teams, and probably only title contenders (or the Brooklyn Nets, I suppose). Bottom line, I can't see him wanting to come to Washington unless we magically improve into a top tier team in the next season (not gonna happen, sorry). I also feel like Bynum won't ever reach free agency. Either the Lakers will lock him up or he'll be traded before then and his new team will lock him up (Magic in a Howard deal anyone?). So that leaves Smith and Jefferson. Personally I'd prefer Smith over Jefferson, but both interest me. They aren't superstars by any means, but they both are definitely in the top tier category of players in this league, and they'd be entering the primes of their careers.

If we can't land one of the restricted free agents (or a home run like Howard), then perhaps Smith or Jefferson would be our next best options.

Wall
Crawford
MKG
Smith/Jefferson
Nene

Solid starting lineup IMO. Possibly adding another lottery pick in 2013 if we don't drastically improve next year. Also maybe a free agent veteran SG to replace Crawford in the starting lineup with our MLE.

[Nivek]

I wouldn't be so quick to back away from Anderson based on what's happened since Howard went out. Out of the 9 games, he's had two really bad games -- against Washington and Atlanta. He also had one of his best games of the season (against Philly) and good games against Denver and Utah.

Take all 9 games without Howard, and Anderson's offensive rating is still 113, which is well above average. And his other numbers are about the same as when Howard was playing. Toss out those awful games against Washington and Atlanta (which I wouldn't recommend doing, but still) and his offensive rating is almost identical to what it was when Howard was in the lineup.

The "without Howard" sample size is tiny, of course. I'll be interested to see what happens the rest of the way and in the playoffs. But the numbers so far don't suggest that Anderson's play has fallen off a cliff without Howard. He's still producing. Plus, the Wizards will have at least a couple post threats next season in Nene and Seraphin. A third, if they get Davis.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

I'd like Beal in the draft (assuming no Davis), and Ilyasova as our main FA move. Follow that with Belinelli. Then package Crawford w/ our 2nd rounders for a sf.

[closg00]

Ernie on signing FA's

On plans to sign free agents: “We already acquired a free agent, the way we look at it in Nene. Last summer he was the most sought-after free agent in the marketplace. We were able to get him via trade instead of having to play the free agent game and going out there not knowing for sure if you were going to get a player of his caliber. We played the free agent game, we just did it a little bit different. We are paying somebody a very nice salary. The games he played for us we’re 5-4 and of the four losses, three of them were by three points or less against some very god teams. Obviously, he makes a difference out there. He knows how to play the game. He’s a very intelligent player. He’s savvy. He’s one of those players that commands respect from the opposition as well as his teammates."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wiz ... _blog.html


Pivot and spin, note that he didn't even give lip-service to the Wiz being potential players in FA. Afterall, we've landed a big fish. Translation, Ted doesn't want to spend any money yet.

[Rafael122]

Ernie on signing FA's

On plans to sign free agents: “We already acquired a free agent, the way we look at it in Nene. Last summer he was the most sought-after free agent in the marketplace. We were able to get him via trade instead of having to play the free agent game and going out there not knowing for sure if you were going to get a player of his caliber. We played the free agent game, we just did it a little bit different. We are paying somebody a very nice salary. The games he played for us we’re 5-4 and of the four losses, three of them were by three points or less against some very god teams. Obviously, he makes a difference out there. He knows how to play the game. He’s a very intelligent player. He’s savvy. He’s one of those players that commands respect from the opposition as well as his teammates."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wiz ... _blog.html


Pivot and spin, note that he didn't even give lip-service to the Wiz being potential players in FA. Afterall, we've landed a big fish. Translation, Ted doesn't want to spend any money yet.

I hate this quote. I remember one year when were in the middle of a playoff push, it was near the trade deadline and he was asked if he was going to make any moves and he basically said the guy coming back from injury (can't remember the player?) was like making a trade. It's just so...wrong. I'd have much more respect for him if he flat out and said he wasn't going to sign anyone.

[Zonkerbl]

Ok, let's play that game. If, instead of trading for Nene, we were to let Young and McGee walk, that would've freed up about $11 million in cap space. We used $13 million to replace Young and McGee with Nene. Ok, EG, what do we do with the rest of the $5-7 million in cap space in 2012 and $13-15 million we'll have in 2013?

This is EG going "hey look over there!" and avoiding the question.

Oh well. Typical for him really.

[fugop]

I still think we're going to be heavily pursuing Jeff Green, so maybe abandoning the free agent market althogether isn't such a bad thing. I like Green, I'm just confident that we're going to overpay.

[nate33]

Ok, let's play that game. If, instead of trading for Nene, we were to let Young and McGee walk, that would've freed up about $11 million in cap space. We used $13 million to replace Young and McGee with Nene. Ok, EG, what do we do with the rest of the $5-7 million in cap space in 2012 and $13-15 million we'll have in 2013?

This is EG going "hey look over there!" and avoiding the question.

Oh well. Typical for him really.

I honestly don't understand what you people expect. Do you want EG to say: "we are going to target Player X at all costs, even if we have to overpay."

We can only spend about $5M on free agents if we hope to have max cap room in summer 2013 (assuming we amnesty Blatche). $5M isn't enough cap room to advertise your intentions. When all you have is $5M, you keep your mouth shut and hope that nobody else is eying the guy you are hoping to acquire cheaply.

[rockymac52]

I don't have a problem with what EG said there, or what he did in the first place, but at the end of the day, what he said was wrong.

Yes, Nene was a free agent last season.
Yes, he was one of the best players available last offseason (if not the best).
Yes, the Wizards now have Nene.
Yes, in doing so, the Wizards did acquire a quality veteran player signed to a long-term contract.
But NO, trading for Nene is NOT the same as simply signing him as a free agent.

In order to acquire Nene via trade we had to lose McGee and Young.

Let me reiterate that I am a fan of the Nene trade on all accounts. I also understand the theory that losing McGee and Young might have been addition by subtraction, at least to a certain extent. It's also worth noting that Young's deal was expiring and he was almost definitely leaving this offseason, so we would have lost him and received nothing in return. McGee was also due for a big long-term extension this summer. If we didn't want him on our team next season or for the foreseeable future, then we didn't have to sign him to that extension obviously. Or perhaps we didn't want to extend him because he was going to be too expensive.

Whatever the case, either we lost one or two players that we would have liked to have on our team in the future, OR we lost two players that we didn't want on our team next seasons anyways. While the second option makes it seem like it's not that big of a deal that we lost them, the thing that I'm most concerned about is that we could have gained something of value for them in a trade. Let's be real, if the package of McGee and Young was good enough to land Nene (a recent top notch free agent, remember?), then it should have been good enough to land a similarly talented player or asset. Right?

There's no guarantee that there were any other similar offers on the table, but we could have at least received SOMETHING in return for them. I believe I recall reading about the Wizards choosing between the Nene package and a Chris Kaman package. Not a huge Kaman fan, but he's a solid player. I'd rather have him than not have anyone.

It's not worth dwelling on too much, but couldn't the Wizards have traded McGee and Young for a 1st round pick from SOME team? Even if it's a pick in the 20-30 range, I'd love to have it. Wouldn't you?

Hindsight is 20/20 of course, and it's easy to criticize Ernie for not doing things that may very well have not even been possible at the time. But at the end of the day, trading for Nene is NOT the same as signing him as a free agent last offseason. I hope Ernie just said that and doesn't actually see it like that.

[rockymac52]

Oh, and let me add that Ernie needs to get his story straight. If he wants to say that trading for Nene was basically the same as signing him as a free agent the summer before, that's fine. BUT, what about all the talk him and Ted have been giving us for the past year about building through the draft and developing and keeping our own talent and NOT building through free agency. Didn't we essentially just build through free agency?

Hypocritical.

I still like the moves that have been made, it just bothers me how hypocritical he's been. I don't like that I can't put any faith in anything he says because of stuff like this.

[closg00]

Oh, and let me add that Ernie needs to get his story straight. If he wants to say that trading for Nene was basically the same as signing him as a free agent the summer before, that's fine. BUT, what about all the talk him and Ted have been giving us for the past year about building through the draft and developing and keeping our own talent and NOT building through free agency. Didn't we essentially just build through free agency?

Hypocritical.

I still like the moves that have been made, it just bothers me how hypocritical he's been. I don't like that I can't put any faith in anything he says because of stuff like this.

What happened is that they indeed did reverse-course, first by throwing Flip under the bus, then by trading McGee/Young. Only people on a board like this will remember all the talk about following the OKC model blah, blah, blah.

[Ruzious]

Ok, let's play that game. If, instead of trading for Nene, we were to let Young and McGee walk, that would've freed up about $11 million in cap space. We used $13 million to replace Young and McGee with Nene. Ok, EG, what do we do with the rest of the $5-7 million in cap space in 2012 and $13-15 million we'll have in 2013?

This is EG going "hey look over there!" and avoiding the question.

Oh well. Typical for him really.

I honestly don't understand what you people expect. Do you want EG to say: "we are going to target Player X at all costs, even if we have to overpay."

We can only spend about $5M on free agents if we hope to have max cap room in summer 2013 (assuming we amnesty Blatche). $5M isn't enough cap room to advertise your intentions. When all you have is $5M, you keep your mouth shut and hope that nobody else is eying the guy you are hoping to acquire cheaply.

Just fyi, in that interview the other day with Consor, Ted did say they plan to spend money this offseason - while congratulating EG for putting "us" in a great cap situation.

[truwizfan4evr]

Shannon Brown is a free agent would anyone want us to go after him?

[fishercob]

Shannon Brown is a free agent would anyone want us to go after him?

Outside of Shannon Brown and his immediate family?