Still, unless EVERY other AFC team was of 0% concern, it's still better to help yourself by a difference of value than to hurt that other team, because there is still some small allocation you have to consider for NFC threats to win it all, but really would they even say it's 0% for all other non-Jets AFC teams? The math is lopsided in your favor to take your best deal and not try to hurt some other team that is part of any field.
Now this isn't perfectly even metaphorical/analogous math because Tebow's negative impact to the team could be determined to be worth more absolute value than the draft pick upgrade, but I'm assuming it to be close only for illustration purposes to paint the picture, because as you disagree that Tebow can somehow damage a team just by simply being a part of it, you then have to compensate for that 0% that should rise if you take other teams seriously, and if you follow that analogy at some point the concept I think should make it obvious that you are playing a low-odds confidence game by harming another player when there are many players at the table. I could make the comparison much more obvious if my life depended on it and I were to invest an hour drawing up a more comprehensive analysis, but I'm trying to offer a quick-hitting obvious analogy is all.
Plus you discrediting your sincerity of the position by a 60% discount, that should kill it off in terms of establishing the point right there if the rest wasn't already abundantly enough.
Tim Tebow to Jets Done Deal
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Re: Tim Tebow to Jets Done Deal
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Re: Tim Tebow to Jets Done Deal
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Re: Tim Tebow to Jets Done Deal
Dude, you're overthinking this. The Jets can be projected as one of the 3-4 AFC teams in the WC race. They're not beating the Pats but they still have playoff talent. Jacksonville is in the mix for last in the AFC. I'm 70-80% sure that the Jets will be in the playoff race and the Jags will not, personally.
If DEN gets beat in their division and needs a WC to get in the playoffs, there's a very very good chance that the Jets are one of their competitors. Thus IF Tebow hurt them, it would definitely play to DEN's favor, and the chance is far more than fractional.
Most importantly, the Jets in this scenario would be likely offering the second best trade offer, only slightly behind Jacksonville's, so it was an either or choice. Your post reads as if every team had an equal chance of being a WC/playoff contender, and every team had an equal offer for Tebow. If that was true, yes singling out one team to put Tebow on would be fruitless % wise. But if you're picking only between 2 teams, and there was a clear distribution where one team was the best bet in the AFC to be no more or less than a WC contender and the other was the best bet to blow buttcheeks, the %s in terms of it making a difference to Trojan Horse the former team becomes much much higher
(But like I said, I somewhat doubt Denver actually thought Tebow would hurt the Jets. If they did though, it would be a sly strategy IMO)
If DEN gets beat in their division and needs a WC to get in the playoffs, there's a very very good chance that the Jets are one of their competitors. Thus IF Tebow hurt them, it would definitely play to DEN's favor, and the chance is far more than fractional.
Most importantly, the Jets in this scenario would be likely offering the second best trade offer, only slightly behind Jacksonville's, so it was an either or choice. Your post reads as if every team had an equal chance of being a WC/playoff contender, and every team had an equal offer for Tebow. If that was true, yes singling out one team to put Tebow on would be fruitless % wise. But if you're picking only between 2 teams, and there was a clear distribution where one team was the best bet in the AFC to be no more or less than a WC contender and the other was the best bet to blow buttcheeks, the %s in terms of it making a difference to Trojan Horse the former team becomes much much higher
(But like I said, I somewhat doubt Denver actually thought Tebow would hurt the Jets. If they did though, it would be a sly strategy IMO)
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Re: Tim Tebow to Jets Done Deal
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Re: Tim Tebow to Jets Done Deal
Nice punt protector. Sanchez needs to get out. Rex knows squat about offense
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Re: Tim Tebow to Jets for 4th-round pick
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Re: Tim Tebow to Jets for 4th-round pick
BIGGIEsmalls 23 wrote:Denver & John Elway handled this situation perfectly. At the end of last season, I thought that they were completely stuck with Tebow, but the Peyton Manning situation was a gift to them. The Bronco FO is celebrating right now.
The Jets have set themselves up for the controversy that Denver wisely unloaded. The NY media is going to tear Sanchez apart if he doesn't play well, while the millions of Tebow fans will put pressure on the Jets to start Tebow.
It's gonna be an absolute disaster, IMHO.
*BUMP*
March of this year


Re: Tim Tebow to Jets Done Deal
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Re: Tim Tebow to Jets Done Deal
Props to me for calling the offense an unmitigated disaster back in March. Now if my wife would only let me gamble more...
Amazing to think that all three current QBs on the Jets are likely to not be Jets next year. They need a new starter and a new backup. And a RB. And 2 WRs. And a TE because Keller is leaving via FA. And a RT. And Nick Mangold declined badly this year to boot. It's going to get worse before it gets better.
Amazing to think that all three current QBs on the Jets are likely to not be Jets next year. They need a new starter and a new backup. And a RB. And 2 WRs. And a TE because Keller is leaving via FA. And a RT. And Nick Mangold declined badly this year to boot. It's going to get worse before it gets better.

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Re: Tim Tebow to Jets Done Deal
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Re: Tim Tebow to Jets Done Deal
Icness wrote:Props to me for calling the offense an unmitigated disaster back in March.
Yeah, that was a tough one to call.

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I Hate Manure wrote:We look to be awful next season without Beasley.
Re: Tim Tebow to Jets Done Deal
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Re: Tim Tebow to Jets Done Deal
Coach Westhoff of the Jets Special teams, envisioned Tebow would be used as a combination tight end/halfback/fullback/quarterback, and was dismayed to see that Tebow's largest role was essentially on special teams after his ribs were fractured Nov. 11 during a game in Seattle.
So what happened to the secret offense that was supposed to be so innovative?
"To be honest, I don't think anyone ever answered that question, 'Why did we do it?' " Westhoff said. "I honestly don't know. I know we didn't practice it;, we didn't practice it in training camp. We were going to unveil it. Well, I'm still waiting for the unveiling. And it didn't happen."
"It was a distraction, and really a shame because that's a hard-working young man," Westhoff said.
So what happened to the secret offense that was supposed to be so innovative?
"To be honest, I don't think anyone ever answered that question, 'Why did we do it?' " Westhoff said. "I honestly don't know. I know we didn't practice it;, we didn't practice it in training camp. We were going to unveil it. Well, I'm still waiting for the unveiling. And it didn't happen."
"It was a distraction, and really a shame because that's a hard-working young man," Westhoff said.
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