6-0, Heat vs Wizards GT

closg00 · Post #1 » by **closg00** » Thu Apr 26, 2012 10:10 am

We end the season playing the Heat's bench and getting our first 6-game win-streak since.???
People who predicted a 20-win season get high-fives.

doclinkin · Post #2 » by **doclinkin** » Thu Apr 26, 2012 1:00 pm

closg00 wrote:People who predicted a 20-win season get high-fives.

There are a legion of gamblers sweating this one significantly. The over-under before season was posted at 19.5 wins. The Win Score doofuses were shouting to put all your money on the under, by 3 games at least. I had 19 myself, but would gladly be wrong just to see a game streak and beat the piss outta the Lebronnaires.

fishercob · Post #3 » by **fishercob** » Thu Apr 26, 2012 1:08 pm

doc, you fool. The word is doofi.

hands11 · Post #4 » by **hands11** » Thu Apr 26, 2012 1:10 pm

doclinkin wrote:
closg00 wrote:People who predicted a 20-win season get high-fives.

There are a legion of gamblers sweating this one significantly. The over-under before season was posted at 19.5 wins. The Win Score doofuses were shouting to put all your money on the under, by 3 games at least. I had 19 myself, but would gladly be wrong just to see a game streak and beat the piss outta the Lebronnaires.

Pretty insane they got it so right. I looks over other team and didnt see other that were so close. Maybe I need to look again.

Post #5 » by **Zonkerbl** » Thu Apr 26, 2012 1:21 pm

Huh. I wonder what I predicted this year. Where's that thread?

truwizfan4evr · Post #6 » by **truwizfan4evr** » Thu Apr 26, 2012 1:43 pm

What will John Wall do for a Encore? He needs to play like he did last night. Wizards heading into next season on a positive note on a 5 game win streak and hopefully make it six tonight. Then we get a top 5 draft pick. Things are looking good for the wizards heading into the future. I will give Ernie another chance if he does some good drafting.

Nivek · Post #7 » by **Nivek** » Thu Apr 26, 2012 2:43 pm

Piece o'trivia -- over a 66-game season, a .300 team (if the Wiz win, their winning percentage will be .303) has about a 12-13% of winning 5 in a row at some point during that season. Odds of 6 in a row? About 4%.

If you take the team's scoring differential since the trade, which Pythagoreans out to a 40.9-win team (I want my 9-tenths of a win, dammit), odds of a .500 team winning 5 in a row are virtually 100%. Odds of winning 6 in a row are north of 70%.

mohammed10 · Post #8 » by **mohammed10** » Thu Apr 26, 2012 3:53 pm

Nivek wrote:Piece o'trivia -- over a 66-game season, a .300 team (if the Wiz win, their winning percentage will be .303) has about a 12-13% of winning 5 in a row at some point during that season. Odds of 6 in a row? About 4%.

If you take the team's scoring differential since the trade, which Pythagoreans out to a 40.9-win team (I want my 9-tenths of a win, dammit), odds of a .500 team winning 5 in a row are virtually 100%. Odds of winning 6 in a row are north of 70%.

Ahh - now I see why Ted extended Ernie...

It all makes sense now

Higga · Post #9 » by **Higga** » Thu Apr 26, 2012 3:54 pm

Win so I can nail my 20 win prediction.

Too bad I didn't put any money on it.

mohammed10 · Post #10 » by **mohammed10** » Thu Apr 26, 2012 4:13 pm

Higga wrote:Win so I can nail my 20 win prediction.

Too bad I didn't put any money on it.

Right there with you, higga - lose tonight and a few of us get to ring the 19-win bell

DaRealHibachi · Post #11 » by **DaRealHibachi** » Thu Apr 26, 2012 4:26 pm

mohammed10 wrote:
Higga wrote:Win so I can nail my 20 win prediction.

Too bad I didn't put any money on it.

Right there with you, higga - lose tonight and a few of us get to ring the 19-win bell

Hell yeah... 8-)

closg00 · Post #12 » by **closg00** » Thu Apr 26, 2012 4:39 pm

Hasn't it been awhile since the Big-3 have played together? Perhaps they might need a bit of a warm-up vs the lowly Wizards....at-least Bosh & Bron might play.

dobrojim · Post #13 » by **dobrojim** » Thu Apr 26, 2012 5:08 pm

who's going tonight?

Anyone interested in a meet-up speak up

remember game time is 8 o'clock rather than the usual 7.
This provides watering hole opportunity

MJG · Post #14 » by **MJG** » Thu Apr 26, 2012 5:19 pm

Higga wrote:Win so I can nail my 20 win prediction.

Too bad I didn't put any money on it.

I'm in that club too. It's pretty amazing, only a couple of months ago, 20 wins looked like a laughably optimistic prediction. Now here we are, right on the verge. You never know where the season will take you ...

Post #15 » by **montestewart** » Thu Apr 26, 2012 5:29 pm

Nivek wrote:Piece o'trivia -- over a 66-game season, a .300 team (if the Wiz win, their winning percentage will be .303) has about a 12-13% of winning 5 in a row at some point during that season. Odds of 6 in a row? About 4%.

If you take the team's scoring differential since the trade, which Pythagoreans out to a 40.9-win team (I want my 9-tenths of a win, dammit), odds of a .500 team winning 5 in a row are virtually 100%. Odds of winning 6 in a row are north of 70%.

Using a different method (less scientific and surely less precise, basically an insanely arbitrary formula) I was calculating the Wizards wins next year to be somewhere between 38-42, assuming they don't get Davis or major FA acquisitions, but do make some prudent roster balancing moves. If I accidentally arrive anywhere near a Nivek number, that almost seems like I got something (you know, in my head anyway).

Severn Hoos · Post #16 » by **Severn Hoos** » Thu Apr 26, 2012 6:05 pm

montestewart wrote:
Nivek wrote:Piece o'trivia -- over a 66-game season, a .300 team (if the Wiz win, their winning percentage will be .303) has about a 12-13% of winning 5 in a row at some point during that season. Odds of 6 in a row? About 4%.

If you take the team's scoring differential since the trade, which Pythagoreans out to a 40.9-win team (I want my 9-tenths of a win, dammit), odds of a .500 team winning 5 in a row are virtually 100%. Odds of winning 6 in a row are north of 70%.

Using a different method (less scientific and surely less precise, basically an insanely arbitrary formula) I was calculating the Wizards wins next year to be somewhere between 38-42, assuming they don't get Davis or major FA acquisitions, but do make some prudent roster balancing moves. If I accidentally arrive anywhere near a Nivek number, that almost seems like I got something (you know, in my head anyway).

Interesting - Kev, is that 40.9 win Pyth rating in an 82-game season, or in a 66-game season?

Post #17 » by **nate33** » Thu Apr 26, 2012 6:17 pm

82 game.

Our point differential is roughly 0, so our expected win percentage would be around .500.

Halcyon · Post #18 » by **Halcyon** » Thu Apr 26, 2012 6:33 pm

MJG wrote:
Higga wrote:Win so I can nail my 20 win prediction.

Too bad I didn't put any money on it.

I'm in that club too. It's pretty amazing, only a couple of months ago, 20 wins looked like a laughably optimistic prediction. Now here we are, right on the verge. You never know where the season will take you ...

I predicted 20 as well. It's a battle for ...bragging rights? (I guess?!)

:lol:

Spence · Post #19 » by **Spence** » Thu Apr 26, 2012 6:42 pm

I can't believe I actually give a crap about the outcome of this game. But I do. I wouldn't have given a rat's ass before the trade deadline. Amazing how getting rid of three guys [Blatche, being the third] and adding a few who are actually likable and appear to enjoy being paid to play a game can change your attitude. This team is fun to watch, even if they are playing against scrubs and backups most nights.

Severn Hoos · Post #20 » by **Severn Hoos** » Thu Apr 26, 2012 6:51 pm

nate33 wrote:82 game.

Our point differential is roughly 0, so our expected win percentage would be around .500.

Funny - it's hard to believe that a .500 team is virtually guaranteed to have a 5-game winning streak. I get it statistically, but I suspect the schedulemakers have a say there, since not all games are true 50-50 propositions. Home / away, opponent, and rest all come in to play on any given night.

I suppose we are so unfamiliar with winning streaks that they seem like spotting some exotic wildlife species on the way to work...