Mitchell out, Celtics pick drops, Clips pick rises

[LongTimeFan]

And we do not get Mil. second in any case? 44 protected?

[humblebum]

I don't care about home court at all. I just hope that the best case scenario plays out and the Celtics end up at 19 and 22 in the draft. In those slots the Celtics would likely be able to get into the late lottery or early teens if they packaged those picks. Or at 19 and 22 will have the best opportunity to select two of the top guys in the second "tier" of the draft.

Whatever happens I'm still happy with the Perkins trade because those picks are gold and I really think that Jeff Green is going to be a valuable player for this team if he can get back healthy.

[Elrod is Back]

For what it is worth, I think the idea of "packaging picks" to move up is much more an NFL phenomenon than an NBA phenomenon. In the NFL, where draft picks in the mid and later rounds are expected to make roster and even play, such deals make sense. In the NBA, they rarely do. The team that gets the best player wins the deal, because lower picks have much less value in the same draft. Only morons want to trade down just to collect a bunch of lower picks.I can only think of one such "package picks and move up" deal in recent NBA history, when Houston and New Jersey did so in 2001. (3 lower no. 1 picks for a lotto pick that became the ill-fated Eddie Griffin.) http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... fed01.html

Put another way, if Danny Ainge traded one of the Cs 2012 no. 1 picks for three no. 2 picks we would think he was insane. In the NFL, that might be brilliant.

That doesn't mean there isn't and can't be all sorts of monetizing to move up a pick or two or three to grab a specific guy on draft day in exchange for later or future picks, like with the Cs and JJJohnson - Brooks in the 2011 draft. But that is different from the NFL-style generic "hey, we will give you two firsts and a second to move up and get a lottery pick."

[sam_I_am]

Elrod, in this draft that convention might not hold true. In a draft where there might only be 4-5 blue chippers, I agree that trading down from there is crazy. But trading down from 10 to get picks 18 and 20 for example might not be so crazy. The year the Celtics drafted Rondo and traded #7 pick is great example (even though that wasn't the exact trade the principle is true). Also, the year we drafted Gerald Green (which was similar draft in that it was very deep but very weak at the top) we could have traded #18 for 3 second round picks and drafted Monta Ellis, Brandon Bass, Rony Turiaf, Andre Blatche, Amir Johnson and Ryan Gomes etc. - all better players.

In this draft, it is better to have 2 picks at around 20 than only having 1 pick between 10 and 20 because the draft is deep but weak with regards to great players.

I guess the bottom line is the same even if our opinions differ. The Celtics won't be packaging to move up.

[hickfromfrenchlick]

Sam, I'm with you. This is a funny draft. As someone above called it, a "beauty in the eye of the beholder" draft.

Danny might very well have the chance to draft the same guy at say 21 that he would draft at 10 or 12. I'd rather have two bites at the apple. Unless you're in the top-3 in this draft, there aren't any sure things. A lot of the players in the lottery are going to be busts -- guaranteed.

[Elrod is Back]

Our opinions may differ but the facts don't. All evidence in NBA history supports what I said. The NBA and NFL drafts are entirely different in this regard. No one would trade a top 5 pick for 10 second round picks. In the NFL, that deal could be made in a heartbeat.

If Danny is wildly in love with a guy who he thinks will not get past say 10 or 12, he can try to package a deal offering 21 and 23, but unless Ted Stepien buys a team no one will answer his call. Even in a draft like this year when the talent is pretty close between 10-25. teams just don't trade down. Quality trumps quantity, and even in a close draft, scouts are paid to make tough calls on who has the best chance to rise to the top and make it. You always go for the best possible player. Trading down is for chumps, unless it is on draft day and you know exactly the players involved.

A slight move on draft day is always possible.

But Danny is such an iconoclast as a talent evaluator, the likelihood is that at least one or two of the guys he has pegged as top 15 players on his draft board will be available at 21 and maybe even 23. In that case the smart move is to stay put, which I fully expect to happen.

By iconoclast, I mean that Danny's draft board will probably be quite different from what the major websites have and what is seen as the consensus list. That is why all of our attempts at speculation are so absurd. Now having said that, I do it too! It is impossible not tho think about it. But every year we are surprised by what happens on draft day, and we will be surprised again this year. We have no idea how Danny rates this class, except that it is not the way the websites do.

[LongTimeFan]

DA has gone mum for years.

We do know the Celtic's board is nothing like the rest of the NBA's board. In 2006 Rondo was in our top 5. We had the 7th pick. DA traded the 7th pick away, because he knew he could buy # 21 and that one of our top five would probably be still there at 21.

In an interview before that draft he stated our board looked nothing like what the rest of NBA looked like. We can trade down, because our board is completely different then others. I wouldn't be surprised if Bradley was in our top ten or even top five.

I expect we'll get two of our top ten players, maybe even a top five. We should get two future starters and possibly an all star player.

[return2glory]

I liked Mitchell. But good for him. He will go back to school for one more year and will be a top 10 pick next season.

Also any draft board that doesn't have Draymond Green and Jae Crawford in the 1st board is not a good draft board.

I would take Jae Crawford over Jeremy Lamb all day and Lamb is projected to be a top 7 pick and Crawford isn't in the first round.

I feel Jeremy Lamb and Harrison Barnes are very overrated.

[Elrod is Back]

Indeed. Good points. Danny also made it clear he ranked JuJuan Johnson much higher than where he was drafted.

[humblebum]

Elrod, point well taken on packing picks to move up not being a common, or realistic, possibility.

I am very excited about this draft for Ainge and with two firsts and a second I expect Ainge to do some major damage.

What I would love to see Ainge do is to select a couple of "attitude", "athletic", "defensive minded" guys who have some two way ability. With KG perhaps not coming back, and in any event, being very close to the end, I think it's critical that Ainge adds players in the draft who can help sustain the type of team the Celtics are currently - mentally and physically tough, talented, and committed to playing great defense.

With Rondo + Bradley as the basis of the young core, I believe Ainge has a solid base to work from. If Ainge can get Jeff Green and Bass to sign for reasonable deals I really feel that the Celtics have the beginnings of a winning core. I'd love to see a guy like Jae Crowder with one of their three picks, a young guy with leadership potential, physicality and rugged defense.

I really think Ainge has a chance to knock this draft out of the park and set the Celtics up for continued success post Big Three.

[CelticFaninLBC]

If ATL wins who has the tiebreaker between them and LAC?

Coin flip.

Here what matters for the two draft picks:

For the Celtics pick: Boston is one game ahead of Orlando and Denver. Boston must lose while one or both of the other two win, and then there would be a coin flip.
If Atlanta loses and Boston wins, they would have a coin flip for 21/22.

(A Boston win with an Atlanta loss would also switch homecourt.)

For the Clippers pick: The Clips are done playing. They are one game ahead of Atlanta and one behind Memphis. Both of those teams play tonight. If there are ties, more coin flips.

Right now the Celtics pick is at 21, and the Clips at 23. The Celtics pick could end up 19, 20, 21 or 22 (21 most likely). The Clippers pick could end up 22, 23, or 24.

Tonight's finales-
Boston @ Milwaukee.
Orlando @ Memphis.
Denver @ Minnesota.
Dallas @ Atlanta. (Dallas may be resting guys, Atlanta playing for homecourt.)



The oddity is that Orlando plays Memphis. So one will move up and one down based on that outcome.

Thanks Gant.

I suspect Jeff Taylor, Dion Waiter, Royce White, Marquis Teague and Moe Harkless are on the board @ 20-23. Unfortunatley Quincy Miller and Tony Wroten are probably gone before 20.

[redslastlaugh]

Our opinions may differ but the facts don't. All evidence in NBA history supports what I said. The NBA and NFL drafts are entirely different in this regard. No one would trade a top 5 pick for 10 second round picks. In the NFL, that deal could be made in a heartbeat.

I agree. I sometimes get a kick out of bigtime NFL, but casual NBA, fans proclaiming stuff like "we need a another center... Who is gonna be available at 38?" NBA draftnicks never think that way. You can't afford to draft for positional need, and after the first 25 picks, the expectation is that any player available will probably not help much. (We're spoiled as are a few other teams' fans.)

Getting a rotation player, starter or all star after pick #25 is a steal, a heist. But drafting a bust carries no shame. I can't think of one Jerry West 2nd round steal and he is generally considered an alltime great front office guy. Morey in Houston seems exceptionally capable of snagging players after #25 who can contribute but he hasn't had a homerun pick so far in the first round. His best selection (Batum) he took on behalf of Portland so he could draft Donte Green.

We're lucky with Ainge. He's got top 10 players in multiple drafts without ever using a top 10 selection. And almost all of his 2nd round selections are in the league. Think about that. Gomes, Harangody, Erden, Hudson and Orien Green are Ainge's picks at 50 or later. He is 5/6 which is beyond exceptional. Again, we're lucky to have him and his team.

Returning to pick swaps, like Elrod says, NFL mid-round selections are expected to make teams. But consider the quantity of players on a roster in each sport. An NBA team that intends to develop young talent rarely wants more than 2 or 3 rookies in a given year. And beyond the roster difference, one huge talent in basketball far, far, far outweighs depth of two or three good talents. San Antonio wasn't ever tempted by the idea of Mercer and Billups because they'd have TWO top prospects rather than only Timmie.

The other thing though is the NBA draft has become a lot about salary cap maneuverings.

For instance, is the #32 pick worth the #18 and Daequan Cook? Not in isolation. But it opens cap space and if that results in LeBron and Bosh then it's a different proposition. Is a lottery pick (Cole Aldrich) worth two later picks? If it gets rid of Mo Pete's contract and keeps your owner out of the luxury tax, then maybe so. You can get a good player at #39, at least you got a shot... But last year Charlotte was glad to take cash and reduce their operating loss a smidgen.

So even though we won't see Ainge package our later picks to jump into the lottery... We don't know what possibilities may present themselves. A part of the fun of the draft is due to the diversity in the motivations behind each team's dealing from year to year creating opportunities not seen in football's draft.

In a good draft, Ainge at #22 and #24 (or whatever) will provide plenty of entertainment and hopefulness from my standpoint.

RLL

EDIT: Nick VanExel just popped into my head. So there's one for ya, Mr. Logo.

[CeltsfanSinceBirth]

Danny is great at drafting, but let's not forget Doc Rivers' role in developing players and putting them into situations where they look good too. I think his coaching is equally as important as Danny's talent evaluation. Rondo might have had a Brevin Knight-like journeyman career if he had been drafted by a team like the Raptors and coached by a guy like Triano or Sam Mitchell.

[redslastlaugh]

Two other things to be mindful of:

1. Who picks before us?

We wont' know until season's end and trades can always change things. That said, it looks like these teams could be 14-20: PHX, PHI, HOU, MIN, DAL, ORL, DEN... I like that. Several of my least feared front offices (ORL, MIN, PHI, PHX) pick before us along with a few well-regarded ones for whom a total whiff is hardly unprecedented (DAL, HOU) and Denver who I have little to go on...but do not fear.

A lot of potential for screwups and idiocy immediately preceding our 1st pick... What great news!

Which brings up point 2.

2. Tie-breakers

Several teams are going to be locked up record-wise and it'll come down to a coin flip. People probably don't remember this but 4 teams with excellent draft records finished with identical records in 2010. The Spurs, the Thunder, the Blazers and Celtics all had 32 losses. We won all the coin tosses and ended up with #19 followed by SA, OKC and then POR.

We easily could have had the #22 pick. Would Avery Bradley still have been available had we lost those coin losses and drafted at 22? We'll never know.

Since I don't think home court matters at all to our playoff chances, I am rooting tonight for:

ATL, ORL, DEN &

MIL (Yea, it hurts to root against your team...it's for the greater good)

RLL

[ermocrate]

Festus wouldn't be' that bad... Not the biggest but looks very strong and hard to pass on defense... Probably He will be on the board at 28th...
I wonder if Danny can arrange a trade like 20 and 23 for 16 and 28...

[Gant]

Festus wouldn't be' that bad... Not the biggest but looks very strong and hard to pass on defense... Probably He will be on the board at 28th...
I wonder if Danny can arrange a trade like 20 and 23 for 16 and 28...

That would be like the Banks/Perkins trade a few years back. Ezeli reminds me of Perk- big, strong, and raw. He's in a lot better shape than Perkins was as a rookie. He probably wouldn't help much right away, except to maybe muscle someone.

[ermocrate]

Festus wouldn't be' that bad... Not the biggest but looks very strong and hard to pass on defense... Probably He will be on the board at 28th...
I wonder if Danny can arrange a trade like 20 and 23 for 16 and 28...

That would be like the Banks/Perkins trade a few years back. Ezeli reminds me of Perk- big, strong, and raw. He's in a lot better shape than Perkins was as a rookie. He probably wouldn't help much right away, except to maybe muscle someone.

He started to play when he was 16yo, I think he got a lot room of improvement or at last he can be a serviceable defensive center... I don't see a lot of good big men in later spots. Jeff Whitey could be a good bet in the second round...

[redslastlaugh]

Killing a few minutes, I looked back at the final 11 selections of last 6 drafts (picks 50-60) besides the two most recent (04-09).

Of those 66 picks, 8 are still on rosters. Of those 66 picks, only 4 were made by Ainge. Of Ainge's 4 picks, 3 are still on NBA rosters. The likelihood (roughly) of a player picked 50 or later being on an NBA roster after two seasons: 12%

Likelihood of an Ainge selection between 50 and 60 being on a roster after two seasons: 75%

Realize it's a small sample and all. But it says a lot, I think.

Here are the players, by the way:

2004: 0
2005: Gomes, Amir Johnson, Gortat
2006: Ryan Hollins
2007: Ramon Sessions
2008: Semih Erden
2009: Lester Hudson, Patty Mills

[LongTimeFan]

And if we didn't have a promise to Greene we would have drafted Amir Johnson, too.

We're not getting Milwakee's second? It's 44 protected?

[ermocrate]

Celtics receive the Clippers' 2012 first-round pick, via Thunder (Eric Bledsoe trade) (top 10 protected in 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015, unprotected in 2016. In 2012, the Celtics would receive the lesser of the Clippers first-round pick or the T'Wolves' first-round pick (Marko Jaric trade)) (Jeff Green trade 02-24-11)

What does this mean?