2012 NBA Draft Lottery

[closg00]

We're getting the 4th or 5th pick, book-it.

This may not be as grim as you think, depending on who is picking in front of us. There are a lot of scenarios where Beal slips to 4, even though Ford isn't projecting that at the moment.

Us dropping to 5th is a little better than a 1 in 10 chance. I don't think it will happen.

My biggest fear is:

1. 5th Pick and we take Barnes
2. 5th Pick and we take a huge project in Drummond

I''m good with walking away with MKG, Beal, or TRB in non-Davis scenarios.

[dangermouse]

1. 2nd MKG (Bobcats won)
2. 1st Anthony Davis
3. 2nd MKG (Hornets won)
4. 3rd MKG (Bucks won! NOH picked 2nd and took T-Rob. Weird. I would say they would take MKG even thought they have Ariza, he can be traded. Maybe even swing for the fences with Drummond. We probably actually get Beal or MKG in this scenario.
5. 4th T-Rob (Raptors won)
6. 4th Beal (Bobcats won)
7. 3rd Beal (Bobcats won)
8. 4th T-Rob (Kings won )
9. 2nd MKG (Bobcats won)
10. 4th Beal (Bobcats won)

50% of the time, the worst team won. On 3 occasions teams that have no business picking first jumped there.

I wont be watching the lotto.

[Dat2U]

Just tried it again to see if my luck held true.

1. 2nd MKG (Bobcats won)
2. 2nd MKG (Kings won)
3. 5th Drummond (Cavs won)
4. 4th Beal (Bobcats won)
5. 4th Beal (Cavs won)
6. 1st Davis
7. 4th Beal (Cavs won)
8. 3rd Beal (Bobcats won)
9. 4th Beal (Bobats won)
10. 1st Davis

Not nearly as lucky this time around.

[rockymac52]

Officially 30 days away, boys. Can't wait for that night. Crossing my fingers already.

The more days that go by the more optimistic I get. I don't like the feeling of getting too attached to something that we have such a small chance of actually getting though. I wish the NBA didn't wait so damn long to have the lottery. Just get it over with! For the sake of the 14 fan bases who can't watch their team in the playoffs!

[Rafael122]

Officially 30 days away, boys. Can't wait for that night. Crossing my fingers already.

The more days that go by the more optimistic I get. I don't like the feeling of getting too attached to something that we have such a small chance of actually getting though. I wish the NBA didn't wait so damn long to have the lottery. Just get it over with! For the sake of the 14 fan bases who can't watch their team in the playoffs!

Like I said, NHL usually does it a few days after the season ends, and right before the playoffs. NBA should have done something like this. Have a 90 minute special, hell I don't know. The actual lottery only takes like 10 minutes anyway. Why do we need to wait a month and a half?

[fishercob]

Update on my post from last week with final draft standings.

1. Charlotte (39.3% chance of picking 2 or 3): Just drafted Kemba. Recently drafted Gerald Henderson. Gaping hole at SF and PF. Very likely to take either Robinson or MKG over Beal. However someone recently pointed out (verbal?) that they are so bad that they should just go BPA. So I suppose they taking Beal is possible. Unlikely IMHO.

3. Cleveland (33.6% chance of picking 2nd or 3rd : Most credible threat to move up and pick Beal. They have nothing on the wings, like us. Their shooting need isn't quite as dire, so they could conceivably prefer MKG. If he's off the board, they definitely take Beal over T-Rob (with Thompson and Varajeo in the fold). The hope is that they stay behind or that they prefer MKG to BB.

4. New Orleans:(33.6% chance of picking 2nd or 3rd with their own pick, 2.9% with the Minnesota pick) Gordon is their best player. Very likely to take Robinson or MKG over Beal.

5. Sacramento: Just drafted Jimmer and Tyreke Evans. Isaiah Thomas might be better than both. Just signed Marcus Thornton. Not taking a SG.

6. Portland (20.7% chance of picking 2nd or 3rd between their two picks): Moderate threat to take Beal. They are not completely bare at SG -- have Wes Matthews and Elliot Williams and potentially Crawford if he doesn't opt out. But Beal is a likely upgrade over those guys and they could be set at forward with Batum and Aldridge. I could see them gambling on Drummond or takign RObinson and moving LMA to center. But Beal has to be considered a possibility.


7. Golden State (10.7% chance of 2nd or 3rd): This is the Utah pick. Utah cannot move up into the top 3 because GS would then keep the pick. They just traded Ellis so they could play Klay Thompson. I think they'd be much more likely to take MKG (huge hole at SF) or Robinson (could play with either Lee or Bogut and help limit Bogut's minutes). They also have Richard Jefferson and Dorrell Wright. I don't think addressing shooting is their top priority.


8. Toronto (7.2% chance of picking 2nd or 3rd): Badly need shooting. But also have Derozan at SG and desperately need SF and rebounding help. I'd expect Robinson or MKG over Beal.

9. Detroit (4.4% chance at 2 or 3): Need frontcourt help badly. Have Gordon, Stuckey, Knight, in the backcourt. Prince is signed long term at SF. I think they'd go Robinson if he's there. If not, and they;re choosing between MKG and Beal, i think they go MKG. Could roll the dice on Drummond too,

12, Milwaukee: Just traded for Monta Ellis. Not taking Beal.


13. Phoenix: (1.6% chance of 2nd or 3rd) Badly need a young shooting guard. Could take Beal, though I could reasonably see them taking RObinson.

14. Houston (1.3% chance of 2nd or 3rd): Martin has only one year left on his deal, so Beal could be an option. But they also have Courtney Lee and really need an infusion of young talent up front.


So i think our scenarios of not getting Davis or Beal are limited to:

--Cleveland jumping ahead of us choosing Beal over MKG
--Portland jumping us and Robinson is already off the board, or them loving BB
--Toronto moving up and preffering Beal to Robinson and MKG
--Houston or Phoenix getting insanely lucky

Given everything above I still really like the chances of us getting either Davis or Beal. While MKG's current fit given his shortcomings are of some concern, he would still be a much better consolation prize than what WizFans have had to accept in the past. Same with Robinson. If we're sitting at 5th and those four guys are all gone, it's an official disaster -- a "Blame Ji" situation. That said, be optimistic! The odds are in our favor. Just root for MKG, Robinson, Drummond and Barnes to all measure well at the combine and look great in workouts.

[Dat2U]

Update on my post from last week with final draft standings.

1. Charlotte: Just drafted Kemba. Recently drafted Gerald Henderson. Gaping hole at SF and PF. Very likely to take either Robinson or MKG over Beal. However someone recently pointed out (verbal?) that they are so bad that they should just go BPA. So I suppose they taking Beal is possible. Unlikely IMHO..

Disagree strongly here. Walker was drafted to take D.J. Augustin's job at PG and Gerald Henderson has been around long enough for everyone know he's not their SG of the future.

[fishercob]

Update on my post from last week with final draft standings.

1. Charlotte: Just drafted Kemba. Recently drafted Gerald Henderson. Gaping hole at SF and PF. Very likely to take either Robinson or MKG over Beal. However someone recently pointed out (verbal?) that they are so bad that they should just go BPA. So I suppose they taking Beal is possible. Unlikely IMHO..

Disagree strongly here. Walker was drafted to take D.J. Augustin's job at PG and Gerald Henderson has been around long enough for everyone know he's not their SG of the future.

Dat, you may be right on this. David Thorpe thinks Beal is a potential "sleeper" to end up in Charlotte:

Sleeper: If Charlotte somehow drops down to the No. 3 or 4 pick, it should consider Florida's Bradley Beal. He has a very interesting package of talents and might end up being both a great shooter and a great defender/rebounder. If Beal develops into an able perimeter shooter, he becomes a long-term starter. Gerald Henderson still has a chance to be a good player as he enters his fourth season next year, and could ultimately beat out Beal in 2012. As a long-term play, however, Beal has the edge. Henderson will be a restricted free agent after next season, giving Charlotte the chance to keep him for the right price as a great sixth man. A four-guard rotation with Augustin and Beal starting, and Walker and Henderson in the second unit, could prove formidable if their deep shooting can improve.

I can certainly see them preferring "motor guys" like Robinson or MKG given the general pathetically embarrassing nature of their play, but you are probably right that Beal should not be completely discounted for them. A bit of wishful thinking on my part.

[nate33]

Update on my post from last week with final draft standings.

1. Charlotte: Just drafted Kemba. Recently drafted Gerald Henderson. Gaping hole at SF and PF. Very likely to take either Robinson or MKG over Beal. However someone recently pointed out (verbal?) that they are so bad that they should just go BPA. So I suppose they taking Beal is possible. Unlikely IMHO..

Disagree strongly here. Walker was drafted to take D.J. Augustin's job at PG and Gerald Henderson has been around long enough for everyone know he's not their SG of the future.

Gerald Henderson isn't good, but he might be their best player/prospect with the possible exception of Biyombo. Beal replacing Henderson is much less of an upgrade than Robinson replacing Thomas, or MKG replacing Derrick Brown.

[nate33]

Update on my post from last week with final draft standings.

1. Charlotte: Just drafted Kemba. Recently drafted Gerald Henderson. Gaping hole at SF and PF. Very likely to take either Robinson or MKG over Beal. However someone recently pointed out (verbal?) that they are so bad that they should just go BPA. So I suppose they taking Beal is possible. Unlikely IMHO..

Disagree strongly here. Walker was drafted to take D.J. Augustin's job at PG and Gerald Henderson has been around long enough for everyone know he's not their SG of the future.

Dat, you may be right on this. David Thorpe thinks Beal is a potential "sleeper" to end up in Charlotte:

Sleeper: If Charlotte somehow drops down to the No. 3 or 4 pick, it should consider Florida's Bradley Beal. He has a very interesting package of talents and might end up being both a great shooter and a great defender/rebounder. If Beal develops into an able perimeter shooter, he becomes a long-term starter. Gerald Henderson still has a chance to be a good player as he enters his fourth season next year, and could ultimately beat out Beal in 2012. As a long-term play, however, Beal has the edge. Henderson will be a restricted free agent after next season, giving Charlotte the chance to keep him for the right price as a great sixth man. A four-guard rotation with Augustin and Beal starting, and Walker and Henderson in the second unit, could prove formidable if their deep shooting can improve.

I can certainly see them preferring "motor guys" like Robinson or MKG given the general pathetically embarrassing nature of their play, but you are probably right that Beal should not be completely discounted for them. A bit of wishful thinking on my part.

Thorpe suggests Beal if they fall to 3rd or 4th. That's not really the same as saying that Beal is one of their primary targets. In this draft, anyone should consider Beal if he's still on the board at 3rd or 4th (particularly 4th).

[fugop]

This is such a weird draft. I would be happy with Dion Waiters, Fab Melo, and Jae Crowder. All late firsts, early 2nds. I would be happy with Doron Lamb, Draymond Green, and Hollis Thompson. Again, late firsts and seconds. I would be happy with Will Buford or Darius Miller.

Usually 2nd round picks have a few glaring weaknesses that lead to their discounting. Is there honestly anything wrong with Lamb, Thompson, Crowder or Miller? They all seem like late lottery prospects in any other year. I've never seen a draft with so little difference between the 10th pick and the 50th pick. Aside, perhaps, from Buford, there isn't even a significant difference in athleticism.

[closg00]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AyggY_R3jU8[/youtube]

Two weeks til the lottery.

[closg00]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AyggY_R3jU8[/youtube]

Two weeks til the lottery.

One week to go.

[TheKingOfVa360]

I'll be happy with Ant Davis, Beal, or MKG. My only concerns about MKG is that he's a poor shooter and we need better shooters. I think Beal would fit in great then we can move Crawford to the bench (addition by subtraction). I'm excited for the draft lottery!

[Halcyon]

I kinda forgot about this and now it's only a week away! 1 week away from the franchise's history being changed forever...I'm expecting the worst and hoping for the best (seems to be our motto)

[fishercob]

Reminder on our odds:

19.9% chance at #1 pick
18.8% chance at #2 pick (38.7% chance of picking 1 or 2)
17.1% chance at #3 pick (55.8% chance of picking top 3)
31.9% chance at #4 pick (87.7% chance of pick top 4)
12.3% chance at #5 pick (44.2% chance of picking 4th or 5th)

Hoping for a repeat of this:

[rockymac52]

Reminder on our odds:

19.9% chance at #1 pick
18.8% chance at #2 pick (38.7% chance of picking 1 or 2)
17.1% chance at #3 pick (55.8% chance of picking top 3)
31.9% chance at #4 pick (87.7% chance of pick top 4)
12.3% chance at #5 pick (44.2% chance of picking 4th or 5th)

Hoping for a repeat of this:

Thanks, always nice to look at (both the odds and that photo).

It always manages to encourage me while also somehow discouraging me.

We have a 44.2% chance of picking either 4th or 5th. I don't like that. That's basically a 50/50 coin flip.

Maybe if we get the 4th pick (or the 5th too I suppose) one of the teams picking ahead of us drafts a big man like Robinson or Drummond, in which case we'll be okay. But I'm worried. If we can't get Davis, Beal, or MKG (in that order, IMO), I'm going to be devastated. That is, unless we pull off a trade of some sorts. I just don't see the point in drafting Robinson or Drummond, even if we like them, mostly because of our current roster makeup. If we get the 4th or 5th pick and Davis, Beal, and MKG are all off the board, then I'll be praying for a trade. Either a trade down for additional picks/assets, or perhaps a trade for a player already in the NBA who is above average to good. I'm scared though. Maybe we can't find a trade worth doing in that scenario and we just take Barnes. I know that's what a lot of people here kinda pessimistically expect us to do. I'm not sure all the Barnes hate on here is justified, but I'm also not convinced he's a guy I want on my team.

But anyways, I CAN'T WAIT for the lottery! So close!

[ALL HAIL]

I agree with you about Robinson and Drummond.

I don't get the fascination with Robinson's game. He looks like Tyrus Thomas, Drew Gooden, or even Jason Caffey. He's way overrated

I think if the Wiz do get that 4th or 5th pick they should consider Lamb or Rivers (if Davis, Beal, or MKG is off the board -- not feeling Barnes either "he screams Marvin Williams/Josh Howard role player).

Rivers and Lamb are particularly intriguiging ... especially Rivers.

I think if a team gives him a chance to get minutes and chance to be at least a second or third option he will be a really good player.

Lamb is good too, but he has more potential to be a third or fourth option, while Rivers, with his confidence and need to prove himself will take teh bull by the horns if given an opportunity.

Question: What position do you see Vesely getting most of minutes SF or PF? SF, right?

[Severn Hoos]

not feeling Barnes either "he screams Marvin Williams/Josh Howard role player

There's a lot more in your post - much of which I agree with - but this one stuck out and struck me as funny. To oversimplify and exaggerate, here are two sentiments that have been shared recently:

"Barnes could be a Josh Howard type - what a bust!"

"Crowder could end up as a Josh Howard type - what a steal!"

And what makes it funny is that both could be true, it all depends on the spot the player is drafted.

And FWIW, I'd take a prime Josh Howard on this team, would be a great addition...

[Nivek]

Kinda funny -- right now in YODA, Barnes and Josh Howard's sophomore season have identical grades (pending Barnes' draft camp workouts). By senior year, Howard's rating had risen to top 5 in most drafts -- grading out a bit below Crowder this season.

But yeah, a prime Josh Howard would be a good addition to the Wizards.

EDIT to add: re All Hail's post. I agree with some of your points, but there's no way I'd pick Rivers or Lamb that high.