Raptors NBA Draft Thread: Jared Sullinger

[MEDIC]

If Sullinger is actually 6'9" without shoes with a 7'1" wingspan, I'm interested because he could actually play a little C when you need a big body.

If he is 6'8" or less, I'm out. I'd probably go with Lamb, Rivers.....hell, maybe even Cody Zeller.

[Dalek]

I think the whole size thing is overstated. There are plenty of undersized guys playing C and PF in the NBA. I just want him to be mobile enough to play defense. I also want his weight under control because the heavier he is the more likely he is to have a knee/leg issues. He seems like a hard worker and would be a good long-term pro. He'd actually be a good mix with JV who lack bulk but has long arms. With a big like Sullinger more space gets cleared.

If we take Sully he makes this team more like Memphis by design. Two low post bigs who can punish teams inside. It doesn't seem bad on paper, but the reality is it is a hard sell for fans. We already have drafted ED, JV and AB and adding another big could be hard to take.

I'd take Rivers over him. Fans need someone electric to come in a rejuvenate the program. I think Rivers could be the guy. You need a guy who is fearless, and Barnes and Lamb come across as guys who avoid contact. Rivers is flawed but he has the NBA in his blood like Steph Curry, so I think he will come out a good pro.

[Double Helix]

My apologies if you've read this before but because there are discussions happening in the draft, jones and Sullinger thread I felt compelled to post it here too for the Sullinger fans.

Was thinking about why so many people think that a superior physical talent like PJIII is more likely to succeed than a player with simply good physical attributes and superior cognitive abilities (like Sullinger) when it hit me. The mind controls all and the body is merely a vessel, not unlike a video game where we control the physical attributes of video game characters. Consider this analogy on the subject of PJII vs Jared Sullinger:

Who's more likely to win in a game of NBA Live 2012? A 20 year-old NBA Live expert who's been ranked higher by almost any tangible measure while playing with with the Charlotte Bobcats? Or, another 20 year old Live player that perhaps prefers Madden, and is ranked lower by almost any tangible measure playing with the Miami Heat? My money's on the smarter, savvier player that knows how to dominate his peers while using the Bobcats and that... in effect... is Jered Sullinger vs Perry Jones.

Perry Jones the player, and the Heat as a team in a video game, both have amazing attributes that if controlled by a strategic, skilled, focused mind would be tough to beat but in Jones' case that doesn't appear to be so. And the craziest part about it is that Sullinger's superior mind isn't even controlling the equivalent of the Bobcats. He's 6'10 and 270lbs. He's not the most athletic guy in the world but those attributes are nowhere near league worst for his position. He's not even the equivalent of the Bobcats physically.

The mind controls all. Great players have competitive, strategic minds that see the game differently in addition to great physical attributes. Sullinger might have the cognitive abilities that the great PFs have and simply good (not great) physical attributes. I wouldn't classify his frame/athleticism combo as poor. If he was weaker or shorter, sure, but he's not. He's strong and seems to have enough length to fit in with most PFs. I think you'll find quite a few PFs in the NBA with PERs above 17.0 that have that combination of attributes (Competitive, focused, ready to work minds and less than stellar physical attributes). How many PFs with PERs above 17.0 can you think of that have unfocused, unmotivated, non-competitive minds that get by soley on their size and athleticism? Now, think about how many of those types you've seen rotting away on benches over the years.

[I_Like_Dirt]

I think the whole size thing is overstated. There are plenty of undersized guys playing C and PF in the NBA. I just want him to be mobile enough to play defense. I also want his weight under control because the heavier he is the more likely he is to have a knee/leg issues. He seems like a hard worker and would be a good long-term pro. He'd actually be a good mix with JV who lack bulk but has long arms. With a big like Sullinger more space gets cleared.

Weight is a big issue as it relates to injuries, but it's also a big issue as it relates to conditioning, because he would clearly run out of gas at the end of games and will be expected to play more minutes in more games in the NBA. Those are the two biggest risks when discussing Sullinger as a prospect. Will he stay healthy, and will he keep himself well-conditioned to the point where he can play big minutes. Looking at how he approached last offseason, I think he'll be fine with his conditioning. His health is something I can't speak to. I'd love to see a Sullinger/Val frontcourt.

[Rhettmatic]

Inspired by DH's excellent work in the PJ3 thread, let's compare Jared Sullinger's freshman year to the freshman years of other bigs he's often compared to, shall we?

(I used Sullinger's freshman year instead of his sophomore year so we could more directly compare him with the one-and-done prospects)

Sullinger:
17.2 PPG / 10.2 RPG / 1.2 APG / 1.0 SPG / 0.5 BPG / 30.4 PER

Millsap:
15.6 PPG / 12.5 RPG / 0.7 APG / 0.9 SPG / 1.7 BPG / 26.5 PER

Boozer:
18.2 PPG / 8.7 RPG / 1.1 APG / 0.9 SPG / 0.6 BPG / 30.9 PER

Glen Davis:
13.5 PPG / 8.8 RPG / 1.0 APG / 1.0 SPG / 1.4 BPG / 25.4 PER

David Lee (he barely played as a freshman so I'm using his sophomore stats):
11.2 PPG / 6.8 RPG / 1.8 APG / 0.7 SPG / 1.5 BPG / 26.0 PER

For good measure...

Sean May:
11.4 PPG / 8.1 RPG / 1.0 APG / 1.5 SPG / 1.8 BPG / 21.2 PER

Some of the other comparisons are hard because they didn't go to college.

The only really comparable player was Boozer obviously, and that remains the best comparison for Jared Sullinger. If we could get an NBA-ready player who projects as a similar version of Boozer (with the potential of course to be better) with the 8th pick in the draft, I'd be thrilled.

[Dr Positivity]

I'm not sure Sullinger is the model citizen for competitiveness/toughness/fire. I recently watched 3 games to make a scouting video for him and he does have some lax to him. The game looks so effortlessly natural to him that at times it seems like his motor/pace is at a light workout level. Also despite playing in the post I would say there's some softness to him, eg. he sets softie screens, lets himself get worked a bit on the boards and likes fadeaway jumpers too much

Personally I don't really mind because these players are young enough to learn and get more competitive, but personally I would call Sullinger's demeanour as closer to Derrick Williams than Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

[fredericklove]

Inspired by DH's excellent work in the PJ3 thread, let's compare Jared Sullinger's freshman year to the freshman years of other notable bigs, shall we?

Sullinger:
17.2 PPG / 10.2 RPG / 1.2 APG / 1.0 SPG / 0.5 BPG / 30.4 PER

Millsap:
15.6 PPG / 12.5 RPG / 0.7 APG / 0.9 SPG / 1.7 BPG / 26.5 PER

Boozer:
18.2 PPG / 8.7 RPG / 1.1 APG / 0.9 SPG / 0.6 BPG / 30.9 PER

Glen Davis:
13.5 PPG / 8.8 RPG / 1.0 APG / 1.0 SPG / 1.4 BPG / 25.4 PER

Some of the other comparisons are hard because they didn't go to college, while David Lee in four years in college never topped a 27.4 PER.

The only really comparable player was Boozer obviously, and that remains the best comparison for Jared Sullinger. If we could get an NBA-ready player who projects as a similar version of Boozer (with the potential of course to be better) with the 8th pick in the draft, I'd be thrilled.

I'll be thrilled too having him as 8th, trade Bargs for a good shooting SF then we'll end up with a more traditional team lineup and oh, some people said Sully will end up having fat big baby type career due to resemblance of undersized and fatness. I lol'd at the comparison and smh.

[Morris_Shatford]

I absolutely hated Sullinger as a prospect last year before he pulled out of the draft;

285, soft around the middle and a guy who just didn't look like he gave enough of a damn to work on any skillset to get better then he already was,

But then he showed up at school at 272 and stronger;
Look at his arms as a freshman, compared to his past season. The guy took his offseason seriously and that to me put to bed a lot of the questions I had about his competitive fire.

6' 10" 272 with a 7' 1" wingspan with was basically "it" for his team this season and looked pretty damn good doing it. There are too many players who you look at and say "If he was two inches taller, or 10lbs heavier, or physically stronger" but Sullinger seems to be pretty well where he needs to be in order to compare to other fours physically in the NBA.

The question simply become a matter of will his game translate offensively and defensively to the NBA, and can Casey make him play his ass off every possession?

If the answers are yes, then you take him at 8 or 9 and run.

[DA_SCOUT]

I'll be thrilled too having him as 8th, trade Bargs for a good shooting SF then we'll end up with a more traditional team lineup and oh, some people said Sully will end up having fat big baby type career due to resemblance of undersized and fatness. I lol'd at the comparison and smh.

I actually LOL'd when Rhett did the Sean May stats. Better safe than sorry haha.
As for Fredrick, c'mon man you know BC ain't gonna trade Bargnani this year, I can guarantee that. Had this been the 2013 draft, and Bargs didn't perform well with Val then yes.

[Dr Positivity]

I have Sullinger's floor as doing what Landry does (Touch around the rim but size limits a lot else)

[fredericklove]

I'll be thrilled too having him as 8th, trade Bargs for a good shooting SF then we'll end up with a more traditional team lineup and oh, some people said Sully will end up having fat big baby type career due to resemblance of undersized and fatness. I lol'd at the comparison and smh.

I actually LOL'd when Rhett did the Sean May stats. Better safe than sorry haha.
As for Fredrick, c'mon man you know BC ain't gonna trade Bargnani this year, I can guarantee that. Had this been the 2013 draft, and Bargs didn't perform well with Val then yes.

lol what I said was pretty wishful thinking so that's why I mentioned it many times b4 that I know BC won't draft Sully cos of his lover euro boy, I'm realistic bro so I know, I know..sigh.

[DA_SCOUT]

I'm realistic bro so I know, I know..sigh.

Cheer up man, I'm actually very optimistic about a Andrea/Jonas tandem.

[Morris_Shatford]

I have Sullinger's floor as doing what Landry does (Touch around the rim but size limits a lot else)

6' 10" 272lbs with a 7' 1" wingspan limits what exactly?

Landry is an inch and a half shorter with or without shoes, and has a 2" shorter wingspan and is 25 lbs lighter.

[Dr Positivity]

I'll wait for the official measurements. Sullinger had his struggles against bigger defenders this year.

[Double Helix]

Everybody in this thread needs to refamiliarize themselves with how effective bangers with big rumps can be in the post. Check out this mix of Z-Bo as a veteran. Tell me you don't think Sullinger's entering the league more refined and in better shape.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=COT4FooZMU8[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=88nQnJTbwwo[/youtube]

Honestly, the more I think about it... the more I think about this kid's charisma... The more I think about his McDonald's all-star game MVP award... and how he was once a top 3 consensus pick... We'll be stupid to pass on him at 8. This would be a little like when the Nets got Lopez toward the end of the lottery after pretty much everybody was in agreement he would be good. People go crazy for upside this time of the year and literally start thinking about "superstar" or "bust" mentality. That's insane because then "near all-star level" talents that stand a greater chance of reaching "near all star" status slip through the cracks. They're perceived as having low-upside when in fact they still have medium upside. People act as though there's only high upside and low upside players in a draft sometimes. In the NBA you have max money superstars, all-stars, near-all stars, good starters on good teams, good starters on bad teams, and so on all the way down the line until you reach bench players. We need to get out of the mentality of star potential or scrub potential. There's far more tiers than that.

I see almost no reason to think that Jared Sullinger could not become Zach Randolph as the next level. I'd take that at 8. And he seems more committed to improving his body that Z-Bo ever did.

If Jonas Valuanciuns = Joakim Noah/Tyson Chandler for us.
And Jared Sullinger = Zach Randolph for us.

And we're willing to trade Bargnani for a good young perimeter player... . And what if you can find a taker for one of Ed or Amir, too? Now, that's a foundation you can build on through free agency!

[Pooh_Jeter]

I'm in the same boat as a lot of people, I hated him as a prospect last year and even early this year, but now I've warmed up to him considerably.

His bust potential seems pretty low and his floor should still be a pretty productive player. His ceiling is something that doesn't seem like a total reach anymore. I could definitely envision him being a borderline all-star PF.

If his height/wingspan do turn out to be solid then he certainly would be BPA if he falls to us.

[Double Helix]

I'm in the same boat as a lot of people, I hated him as a prospect last year and even early this year, but now I've warmed up to him considerably.

His bust potential seems pretty low and his floor should still be a pretty productive player. His ceiling is something that doesn't seem like a total reach anymore. I could definitely envision him being a borderline all-star PF.

If his height/wingspan do turn out to be solid then he certainly would be BPA if he falls to us.

That's exactly how I jumped on board.

When he was once seen as a top 3 candidate last year it was very easy to look for holes and think... "Wow, I want more out of my top 3 pick." We all become defensive there because we expect more. I'd probably be doing the same thing if I had a top 3 pick and Thomas Robinson was there. You want to land a superstar there at 3 badly. But at 8... it's a very different story. You have to think BPA in this range and if you're looking at a guy that looks an awful lot like a prime Z-bo at age 20 with no gun charges or negative ego issues then you've got to think long and hard about it.

This guy was born and raised in Ohio, too! And loyal enough to go to State University and come back despite being touted as a lottery pick. He's used to cold weather and he's loyal!

[Pooh_Jeter]

I like how he would fit in the front court with Jonas V as well.

Both great rebounders and while Sullinger may not be a great help defender/shot blocker, Jonas V should provide that in spades. Sullinger has a solid low post game and range on his J so while Jonas V is developing his offensive game the Raptors won't be stuck with two players in the front court who can't create any offense for themselves.

You have assets and cap space to make a move for a SF and PG as well.

[JN]

It is almost certain that Sullinger can put up numbers and a good PER in starter's minutes. Alot of skilled stockier players have been able to put up solid numbers adjusted for minutes, but they simply don't get the minutes to go 17+/8+ because they are such defensive liabilities.

Sullinger's extra size last year as a frosh didn't really hurt his offensive game - in fact it probably helped it. It was not at the point where it hurts you on the offensive end. But the lost weight should really help him on the defensive end.

I think Sullinger is smart enough that defensive should not be a problem. He will get the minutes, and the numbers.

[Dr Positivity]

I'm not sure about the Zbo comparison just because Sullinger's moves didn't look that advanced to me. He was more about feel/touch + power and vs Withey he was fadeaway HQ because he couldn't get his power game off against him and didn't have those moves to get in his sh*t. However I do like his upside because of athletic tools + skill + basketball IQ, I just think he has to develop his face-up game. I like the idea of him slimming turn and developing a Millsap to Boozer like game more than Zbo/Jefferson. His quickness is very underrated in general.

I have him and PJIII at 4th/5th on my big board so I'm not really complaining about either at 8. I'm in favor of drafting the most talented player and it's pretty close between them IMO (People seem to favor PJIII in terms of talent, but I think Sullinger has a lot of things he doesn't as well)