Raptors NBA Draft Thread: Austin Rivers (NOH)

[fredericklove]

You cant win with him. PG in the nba will eat him in the other end. So it's pointless.

Funny... that's what they said about Russell Westbrook.

Really? Westbrook has top notch athleticism with extremely quick footwork to guard any PGs and the extreme explosiveness to blowby any PG. Do I see any of that from Rivers? Absolutely no.

[Double Helix]

Okay, temporarily... for the purposes of discussing Rivers as a potential SG prospect... let's ignore what we saw from Beal in the tournament and the struggles we saw from Rivers from time to time throughout the season.

I just watched this video for the first time. I'm not sure how I missed it before. [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S2hNZiFvr2c&feature=fvst[/youtube]

I realize what happened during college but when I watch this video I'm reminded that if Beal is expected to become an impact SG at the next level... why can't Rivers? Just because he had a so-so year his first at Duke? He appears to be about the same height as Beal (who's basically a top 6 lock at this point). Rivers has a ton of creativity off the bounce, a fast first step, and solid athleticism.

Why can't he be an undersized 2? Assume obviously that he has more to his game than he was able to show and that his down year could be our gain. If size is his biggest concern then is that REALLY that big of a concern when a similarly sized SG prospect has basically become a top 6 lock?

Don't get me wrong here. I realize why so many are high on Beal. I've analyzed the numbers. I saw him in the tourney. That said, I think part of the reason people are are down on Rivers is because the original thought was that he might be a special PG/combo guard prospect and many left disappointed after seeing him in that role because he doesn't pass amazingly. People also look at him and think, "What can he do that Bayless can't in that role?" but if he's 6'4-6'5 and can play the 2... and perhaps put on some weight... do things change here? Why is Beal's height forgiven at the 2 when Rivers isn't?

[Young_Buc]

Main reason? Pretty much because he looked more like JR Smith than say DWade in that year that we saw him. He did not look to pass AT ALL while Beal played with chuckers. Also rebounding, defense and intangibles (leadership etc) Pretty much the reason MKG is rated over someone like Lamb.

[Undefeated]

Bradley Beal has shown he can play bigger than his size often defending PFs when Billy Donovan opts to go small with Erik Murphy at C. That's defending them well too. Unlike Beal, Austin Rivers doesn't play big. And Beal's projected to be more of an impact player because of his ability to score, rebound, playmake/pass, and defend. Two-way potential. Rivers is just a straight up scorer with not much else to offer. Those types of players are a dime a dozen.

[C_Money]

Bradley Beal has shown he can play bigger than his size often defending PFs when Billy Donovan opts to go small with Erik Murphy at C. That's defending them well too. Unlike Beal, Austin Rivers doesn't play big. And Beal's projected to be more of an impact player because of his ability to score, rebound, playmake/pass, and defend. Two-way potential. Rivers is just a straight up scorer with not much else to offer. Those types of players are a dime a dozen.

Players who can create their own shot are not a dime a dozen. They make your offense way better. We just traded Barbosa away for a washing machine so guys like Austin Rivers are needed here.

[Tim Horton]

no pls don't he's a world-class chucker.

[chimpston17]

When I've seen Rivers play a few times this year I've actually liked what I've seen. He is very very good at splitting screens which allows him to break down the D and get to the rim. This ability is one of the keys to what makes guys like Harden and Wade so good at breaking down the D and Rivers seems to have some of that ability in him, and it's something we really lack with all of our guards. He is still immature, and inconsistent, he needs to learn to distribute the ball better, but I think he has the ability to be a dynamic playmaker with his ability to handle the ball and it's something we lack. I think his lack of size for a 2 guard hurts him a bit but he will have an impact in the league, I think his game is more suited to the nba than college because in college the paint is packed a little more as the floor isn't spread as much with the shorter 3 point line. He is only a freshman and still lots of time to grow into a more mature player that can create for others more often with good coaching, and if he does his potential is huge. He has the skill set. Worst case if he doesn't learn how to be a little more unselfish he could develop as a pretty good scoring sixth man.

I think he is certainly worth considering with our pick his ability to create with the dribble and get to the rim is something we lack in our guards, and he has good upside.

[Double Helix]

I flip flop on him all the time to be honest. It would be exciting if after draft workouts people were raving about him and stating things like how they believe he'll be a much better pro, or better yet... throwing out comparisons to other elite combo guards and talking about upside/improvement.

Just because he hit a wall this year at Duke doesn't necessarily mean that he's done. I mean, I know that everybody hates the Westbrook comparison and I don't want to discuss there differences again but let's also not forget the kind of numbers Westbrook put up as a freshmen either (even on a per 40 minute basis). They're fairly comparable with Rivers freshmen stats at Duke. Here's a quick rundown over 40 minutes for both:

(Over 40 minutes per pace adjusted)

PPG
RW: 15.5
AR: 18.0

APG
RW: 3.0
AR: 2.4

TS%:
RW: 0.54
AR: 0.51

FT%
RW: 54.8%
AR: 65.8%

3P%
RW: 40.9%
AR: 36.5%

PER: 13.3
PER: 16.8

Again, I feel the need to proactively point out that I am not trying to say these two are alike in any other way than to remind us that freshmen can make big improvements to their games. You'd hope that if a professional talent evaluator would have brought in Russell Westbrook for a workout at the NBA level as a Freshmen he would have been able to look past his early turnover issues and whatever other concerns he saw in his data and his game and project past those concerns and see the talent underneath all that. All I'm saying is that if Rivers still has the talent that made him so popular on the HS circuit last year... do NOT be surprised if scouts at the NBA level bring him in and try to project past what he showed them at Duke this year too. You do not want to be the team that misses out on a potential star combo guard prospect simply because he struggled his first year out of the gate at a big school with a lot of pressure on his shoulders. It's up to our scouts to determine how good he could be long-term regardless of what he showed or didn't show at Duke.

And Rivers really is much faster/smoother/coordinated and a better jumper than many people in this thread seem to give him credit for. I still stand by my earlier statement that his jumping ability/wingspan/max vert reach/coordination drills are all going to be very impressive. And if he somehow suprises on height and is that 6'4.5 range with shoes with a 6'7 wingspan then NBAdraft.net's projection of him going top 10 won't surprise met at all.

He scares me to death and like I said... I flip flop on him but I do like and admire some of the things he can do with the ball in his hands. He sometimes plays like he thinks he's a superstar that won't miss but that's because this was the first time things didn't work out for him the way his mind thought they would. If his game catches up with his creativity/ego he'll be a fun player to watch at the next level because he's fearless and assertive.

[theonlyeastcoastrapsfan]

I have a lot of respect for his Dad, makes me think he's got a solid floor as a player, or a good floor general who lasts a long time in the league, even if he's not a "franchise guy". Sorry, I just don't see Doc raising a chucker who will flame out when they can't dominate the NBA.

[Undefeated]

Players who can create their own shot are not a dime a dozen. They make your offense way better. We just traded Barbosa away for a washing machine so guys like Austin Rivers are needed here.

Off the bench that is when Rivers can't do anything else than score.

[chimpston17]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F9qhz_lA8S0[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=asCHZeFl33k[/youtube]

[Double Helix]

I just think it's foolish to write him off as being only a 6th man type strictly because his freshmen season didn't turn out the way many thought.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fsz_JVLqFh0[/youtube]

He's played with elite ball handlers/NBA pros like John Wall, Brandon Jennings, Tyreke, etc for a long time now and always held his own in these types of settings. NBA pros, college scouts... Coach K even have all raved about his talent so I think he has a couple other gears of development to reach.

Watch him cross over and blow past John Wall about a minute into that clip.

[theonlyeastcoastrapsfan]

I actually think he'd be a solid pick for us at 8. I think he could probably be a Point Guard down the road.

[Undefeated]

I couldn't care less what numbers Austin Rivers put up across the board during his time at Duke. That's not my basis why I believe he's a bona fide 6th Man in the making. It's his skill set when I watch him play throughout the year that leads me to believe he's a 6th Man. Outstanding scoring instincts with little else to offer. Even then, I'm not exactly a fan of his scoring prowess because he's so ball dominant. Good scorers can play on the ball or off the ball. Look no further then Kevin Durant or James Harden. They both thrive whether they have the ball in their hands or not. But he'll get by in the NBA because of his elite first step and handles. He's got a knack to split defenders/screens for a step-through which leads to a plethora of options for him when he sets feet inside the painted area. But the problem is he plays head down which kinda limits him.

Regarding his athleticism, he might look good in pick up games, but his leaping ability will be nullify in the NBA. He's a two-legged leaper first of all. If you want to be a good scorer, you need to be a one-legged leaper because you want to beat your defender off the floor like Dwyane Wade and Derrick Rose. Watch his dunks from the NC Pro-Am over last summer.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1efPt-anOFI[/youtube]

Notice how he has to gather before taking off of two legs. What happens when his defender starts to crowd him? It's not going to be easy for him to take off.

[Double Helix]

I understand why some don't like him obviously. We took on a talented HS-hyped combo guard prospect in Bayless and many wish he'd be our Lou Williams/6th man type while others wish he was the starter.

I like Bayless and obviously Rivers would look a lot more interesting if we never had a guy like Bayless already here. It's a bit like how Henson doesn't seem too intriguing with Ed Davis already here.

What our scouting team needs to do though is try to figure out if Rivers has more upside than Bayless did/does. Ignoring the numbers for a moment, they need to bring him in and see where he stacks up against other combos in the league. If he ends up being longer than Bayless (taller and longer arms) then perhaps he'll be able to exploit that more. If he has a better first step then maybe he'll be able to create more for himself. If he has better vision then we think then maybe he can still be converted earlier and sooner than it took Bayless. Being able to see past the rawness/mistakes in a HS kids/freshmen is what separates the pros from the rest of us.

If they went for him I'd have to assume that they saw something special that made them think he would project to be better than Bayless long-term. Bayless is already very good so if they felt that strongly about Rivers then I'd be excited at the prospect of that happening.

[Ell Curry]

I'm not seeing the Westbrook thing. That guy could be an NFL wide receiver or Safety, or a dominant center back in soccer. Rivers just looks like an agile, skinny guy. Westbrook has incredible speed and power.

Tony Wroten, I haven't seen play, and his numbers terrify me, but people think he's that kind of athlete, right?

[Double Helix]

Again... I only brought up Westbrook to highlight a combo guard that didn't have an amazing freshmen season or even really a top 5 dominant sophomore campaign. People forget where Westbrook was ranked heading into his draft. He was in the teens but after workouts he kept moving up. It wasn't like the consensus on him was that he was a can't miss combo guard and top 5 lock at this point in the time in his draft year. Check Draftexpress' mock draft history on him if you don't believe me. He was 2nd round material and then eventually a late lotto pick but even right up until near the end nobody expected him to be the star he became.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Rus ... t-history/

Also note Draft Express's player comparisons for him (Barbosa on the high end/Shannon Brown on the low end)

I am not saying Rivers and Westbrook have similar builds or anything of that sort because they don't. I'm merely saying that OKC went out on a limb after seeing him in person and running him through drills and felt like using a top 5 pick on him, surprising some. All I'm saying is that it would be nice for us if Rivers somehow went through a similar climb after workouts.

But since we're talking about Westbrook''s build... while it's true he's always had a muscular frame and wide shoulders... he has obviously put on even more weight since entering the league, just as many players do.

[JamesNaismith]

I'm not seeing the Westbrook thing. That guy could be an NFL wide receiver or Safety, or a dominant center back in soccer. Rivers just looks like an agile, skinny guy. Westbrook has incredible speed and power.

Tony Wroten, I haven't seen play, and his numbers terrify me, but people think he's that kind of athlete, right?

No, Tony Wroten is NOT perceived as a "Westbrook" type of athlete.


He's actually more heralded for his height at PG (potentially), some decent court vision and exciting passes (ala Rubio) BUT the problem is he is FAR more turnover prone. Right now if things went extremely well for him he could turn out more in the mold of Tyreke Evans but he's definitely a gamble. He looks like a beast in streetball but he's having problems converting that talent to organized ball...here's some footage of him going at Wall

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E9w8BOO7ZT4[/youtube]

[JamesNaismith]

Again... I only brought up Westbrook to highlight a combo guard that didn't have an amazing freshmen season or even really a top 5 dominant sophomore campaign. People forget where Westbrook was ranked heading into his draft. He was in the teens but after workouts he kept moving up. It wasn't like the consensus on him was that he was a can't miss combo guard and top 5 lock at this point in the time in his draft year. Check Draftexpress' mock draft history on him if you don't believe me. He was 2nd round material and then eventually a late lotto pick but even right up until near the end nobody expected him to be the star he became.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Rus ... t-history/

Also note Draft Express's player comparisons for him (Barbosa on the high end/Shannon Brown on the low end)

I am not saying Rivers and Westbrook have similar builds or anything of that sort because they don't. I'm merely saying that OKC went out on a limb after seeing him in person and running him through drills and felt like using a top 5 pick on him, surprising some. All I'm saying is that it would be nice for us if Rivers somehow went through a similar climb after workouts.

But since we're talking about Westbrook''s build... while it's true he's always had a muscular frame and wide shoulders... he has obviously put on even more weight since entering the league, just as many players do.

I'm sorry I think you're a great poster usually but you're really stretching and fighting too hard to make this comparison. Westbrook is yes probably the most well known and current example of a kid exploding up the ranks by taking a gamble on him but if we were to do that with Rivers that's where the commonality ends. Their games are not alike, their athleticism is not alike and their skillsets are completely different so you really need to let this go.

Rivers game by FAR most closely resembles OJ MAYO (as does their highschool hype and cocky attitudes). You want a career projection then look no further. To Mayo's defece I don't believe he's been used well since his rookie campaign and I think Rivers can have similar numbers but the problem is and will always be they are not TEAM players. They are ballhogs that look for their own and please don't try and justify it because its been beaten to death -- Rivers is not a team player BUT he is instant offence hence why he projects well to be an excellent 6th man like a Crawford, Barbosa and Terry (all guys that are SGs in PG bodies). The biggest problem is both Mayo and Rivers still believe they are the "man" from highschool and want to dominate when they could be better if they accepted what they are (as I guess would some of their supporters as well).

[Double Helix]

Well, to be perfectly transparent... I did think Mayo was going to be a better pro and I am still a little surprised that he hasn't done better.

His rookie year even was solid:

18.5ppg/3.2apg/3.8rpg/1.1spg - PER of around 15.0

That's not a bad way to start one's career but the progression just hasn't been there and he only recently seemed to accept this 6th man role. I think I just really want to have one of those new era combo guards leading the way so badly that I'm willing to overlook obvious flaws. I want us to have a young guy with some swagger and penetration ability to make things fun around here. That's probably the biggest reason why I'm looking for reasons to be excited about Rivers and want him to somehow emerge in a Westbrook-esque kind of way and wow people in workouts even if it's unlikely to happen.

Beyond that, if he moves up... a guy like Lamb or Barnes will fall.

It's true though. Westbrook and his rise and continual development year after year after year really are the exception. That doesn't usually happen so dramatically.