Jan Vesely

[hands11]

Vesely is playing the way that many of the Blatche detractors said Blatche needed to play to be valueable. IE, Vesely has become offensively efficient while being low usage (albeit maybe to low usage because of his lack of a jump shot). Additionally, Vesely is effective defensively.

Maybe they are and I haven't seen it, or maybe they have other reasons for not doing it, but it seems to me the Blatche detractors should be singing the praises of Vesely.

That was the thing that was hardest for some to get their brains around. Ves came in as this tall SF. Then people had to adjust to the idea that he was really more a PF. It was even harder for some to get their heads around that he was actually play some center.

But yeah. He is approaching the game the way most wanted Dray to approach it. That is also true of McGee. But both Dray and McGee wanted to be offensive players while Ves is happy focusing on defense and just being a team hustle player. Ves needs zero plays called for him.

Drays position on the team has been replaced by Nene, Keveen, Ves and Booker

Nene has the range. Even Keveen can hit from around the key.
Both Nene and KS can run all the post plays and all three pass well.

[cleek+wall]

he is going to be our noah and thats not bad as far as i am concerned....

[closg00]

I agree that is it far from likely that he develops a jumper to the point where it can be a regula part of an offense. That means he will have a time fitting in at PF as a starter. As a backup and pair with Seraphin he could work nicely.

I think his best bet is to get as big and strong as possible and become a Center. I had my doubts as to his ability to do so, but he does seem to have gotten stronger over the course of the season, which bodes well. If he can get his weight up I can easily see him becoming a guy like Varejao/Noah, An active and smart defender with great bball iq and instincts. He's a better athlete as well, probably even with some weight.

It remains to be seen nif he can put on the weight, but I think that is his best bet to live up to a high draft pick.

Sounds familiar?

Dwane Casey is optimistic of how much Jonas Valanciunas will improve the defense of the Raptors.

“I saw him last summer with the Lithuanian national team and the Euro games in the championships — big-time energy, runs the floor, rebounds. At the worst, we’re getting a Joakim Noah from Chicago — a guy who mans the middle, challenged a little bit in terms of scoring in the paint but as far as of pick-and-rolling to the basket, he has great hands to roll and finish. He hasn’t developed that consistent outside jumpshot at the elbows yet, but something that you can’t teach — and I do know that it’s an NBA skill — is each every time he walks on the floor, he’s gonna hit people, he’s gonna play with energy, he’s gonna play hard, he’s gonna bring an energy to the court that is an NBA skill. And being seven-foot, that’s a plus when you can have your big man with that type of energy and that type of aggression.”

[fishercob]

clog00, are you actually developing a bit of optimism wrt Vesely?

[Spence]

It's tough for me to look at those numbers and say that Vesely was better than McGee his rookie year. McGee crushes Vesely in points and blocks, beats him handily in rebounds, and their shooting efficiency is essentially the same, with McGee having the much higher usage rate.

That said, if we threw out the first 2 months and only looked at Vesely's numbers thereafter, the comparison might be a lot closer. And we also know that Vesely is infinitely better than McGee at the stuff that doesn't show up on the stat sheet.

It's difficult to compare the two of them, but Javale had two years of college ball. Jan was playing over in Europe. Which is better prep for the NBA? Probably depends on the player and what he does with the time.

I could be wrong, but I find it hard to believe Jan won't be as good or better than McGee, in part because there will be fewer facepalm moments. I'm not sure what I expect from Vesely and I find it difficult to see how others can make such confident predictions about his NBA future, but I'm reasonably confident he can match or even surpass McGee's performance. I also suspect Vesely will be better for team morale than McGee -- assuming the team prefers work over horseplay.

[Spence]

he is going to be our noah and thats not bad as far as i am concerned....

I suspect the Wizards would be overjoyed if your prediction comes to pass.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I believe hands mentioned that Vesely is further along that Javale was as a rookie. I tend to agree:

http://bkref.com/tiny/zPnyy

Javale had a much higher PER on the strength of somewhat better rebounding, more blocks and fewer turnovers.

But Jan is actually a better shooter -- both eFG% and TS%, even with his FT problems -- than Vale was as a rook. He's a much better passer. He had the better (lower) DRtg, 105 to 110 -- but I don't think that even begins to capture how much further along Jan is defensively than Vale was. Hell, he's a better passer and defender than Vale is now, not just as a rookie.

I expect Jan to improve his shooting and rebounding and cut his turnovers. He is going to be much better than McGee.

It's tough for me to look at those numbers and say that Vesely was better than McGee his rookie year. McGee crushes Vesely in points and blocks, beats him handily in rebounds, and their shooting efficiency is essentially the same, with McGee having the much higher usage rate.

That said, if we threw out the first 2 months and only looked at Vesely's numbers thereafter, the comparison might be a lot closer. And we also know that Vesely is infinitely better than McGee at the stuff that doesn't show up on the stat sheet.

How does Ves compare to McGee in plus min PER differential ?

Personally, I don't need to look at the stats to support the idea that Ves is farther along them McGee was. All I have to do is watch them. Ves is 1000 times smarter as a basketball player then McGee was. He is a much better defender. He is a better teammate. Haven't looked at the stats but I image Ves had more steals. His P n R defense was much better. His position D was better. He gets the ball out on the outlet faster then a ton of players in the league. He is just a better basketball player after year one then McGee was. Actually, way better. I expect year two will only widen that gap.

Nick Young was the leading scorer in the greatest come back in modern NBA playoff history. We call him dumb and criticize.

I STILL THINK JAVALE CAN PLAY WELL. He's not proving me right, but I think he's going to do something phenomenally well if George Karl just lets him do his thing.

I doubt it happens, though.

[Spence]

I STILL THINK JAVALE CAN PLAY WELL. He's not proving me right, but I think he's going to do something phenomenally well if George Karl just lets him do his thing.

I think Javale's best chance to do something phenomenal comes if George Karl DOES NOT let him do his own thing. Few players in this league need coaching more than Javale McGee.

[closg00]

Noah was taken 9th in that draft, Yi was taken 6th

I hope Jan can become a Noah-like player, we have no choice but to hope that he does.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I STILL THINK JAVALE CAN PLAY WELL. He's not proving me right, but I think he's going to do something phenomenally well if George Karl just lets him do his thing.

I think Javale's best chance to do something phenomenal comes if George Karl DOES NOT let him do his own thing. Few players in this league need coaching more than Javale McGee.

Pick-and-roll defense is going to continue to confound a guy who doesn't have strength to stop power players at the rim, and who is slow to read and react defensively. If I were coaching Javale, the only things I would stress is not going for ball or head fakes and him not coming out too far from the basket.

My instructions to McGee would be rebound and score a bunch off of dunks. Shoot the ball and force them to cover you. EVERY BODY ELSE would have to defend. It would be sort of a box with Javale roaming defensively, and boxing out.

Spence, I never coached or even made my HS basketball team. I'm learning more as my kids get older and play youth sports. I'm sure I am speaking over my head, here. But I'm not going to let that deter me.

Javale reminds me of Rip in one way. When Rip Hamilton was a Wizard, he was considered a terrible defender. Two years later, he's cutting down the nets an NBA champ. Ten years later, Rip is considered a good defender!! Hard to fathom.

Javale has physical and intellectual limitations that detract from his defensive potential. On top of that, he has asthma issues. He doesn't have someone burly setting screens for him. He just had a game where he scored 19 points in limited minutes. McGee needs to score to be a more effective player. Rip Hamilton initially used his efficient offense to put pressure on teams. He got better at the offensive end. Javale is not a threat if you shackle him on offense. Also, when Javale or any other big man scores, they tend to play better defense.

Javale IS a good rebounder and a good weak side shot blocker. I think he needs to get the ball in scoring position for him. He needs to shoot a few face up shots now and then from 10-14 feet just to keep defenses honest. Once he gets away from banging in the post every play, Javale can drive for dunks.

We will see on McGee, but I still think he can play. He doesn't need to be over coached. Let him play, not get into deep thought.

[Upper Decker]

McGee is pretty terrible at the two defensive area's you need your center to be good at; post defense and PnR defense. I don't think he'll ever improve either area. He's added beef over the years, yet he still get's humiliated in the post by any player with a pulse. As a result, he needs double help to cover his deficiencies, which opens the floor for everyone else and exposes his team. His post defense isnt the most egregious of the two, that belongs to his PnR defense, which basically opens the lane for the ball handler and kills the defensive scheme. I have no hope for Javale, and although I don't support EG, it's a feather in his cap that he traded a numbskull for a top-10 center.

[Spence]

I'm sure I am speaking over my head, here. But I'm not going to let that deter me.

It never stops any of us!

[closg00]

011-12 Kia NBA Rookie of the Year Award Results
Kyrie Irving, Cleveland 117 2 1 592
Ricky Rubio, Minnesota - 49 23 170
Kenneth Faried, Denver 1 30 34 129
Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio 1 9 15 47
Iman Shumpert, New York 1 7 7 33
Klay Thompson, Golden State - 5 15 30
Isaiah Thomas, Sacramento - 6 10 28
Brandon Knight, Detroit - 6 3 21
Chandler Parsons, Houston - 3 5 14
MarShon Brooks, New Jersey - 1 1 4
Kemba Walker, Charlotte - - 3 3
Josh Selby, Memphis - - 1 1

http://www.nba.com/2012/news/05/15/rook ... r-release/

[Ruzious]

011-12 Kia NBA Rookie of the Year Award Results
Kyrie Irving, Cleveland 117 2 1 592
Ricky Rubio, Minnesota - 49 23 170
Kenneth Faried, Denver 1 30 34 129
Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio 1 9 15 47
Iman Shumpert, New York 1 7 7 33
Klay Thompson, Golden State - 5 15 30
Isaiah Thomas, Sacramento - 6 10 28
Brandon Knight, Detroit - 6 3 21
Chandler Parsons, Houston - 3 5 14
MarShon Brooks, New Jersey - 1 1 4
Kemba Walker, Charlotte - - 3 3
Josh Selby, Memphis - - 1 1

http://www.nba.com/2012/news/05/15/rook ... r-release/

This was the 7th year of eligibility for the ROY for Ricky Rubio.

I'm kinda surprised Isaiah Thomas got that many votes. He should never get more than Magic Johnson.

[Nivek]

In my own PER-like analysis, these were the most productive rookies per minute this year:

1. Faried
2. Pekovic
3. Leonard
4. Ayon
5. Irving
6. Josh Harrelson
7. Isaiah Thomas
8. Jordan Williams
9. Joe Leuer
10. Kanter

It would get shuffled around a bit if I looked at it in terms of total contribution or per game.

In my stuff, Chandler Parsons was solid -- right at league average, but a little behind Kanter. Thompson and Walker were okay, but rated solidly below average. Shumpert, Knight and Brooks were at or below replacement level. Selby rated as one of the worst players in the league this year -- where 100 is league average, he scored a -44 in the rating system I used this year.

[fishercob]

This was Pekovic's seond season.

[Nivek]

This was Pekovic's seond season.

Grr.

So, scratch Pekovic, move everyone up one slot. Chandler Parsons is the new #10. Revised list:

1. Faried 177
2. Leonard 153
3. Ayon 139
4. Irving 133
5. Josh Harrelson 127
6. Isaiah Thomas 120
7. Jordan Williams 113
8. Joe Leuer 108
9. Kanter 104
10. Parsons 99

The Wizards rookies in my system where 100 = average and where 60 = replacement level:

Mack -- 74
Vesely -- 73 (a HUGE improvement -- he was loitering in the sub 40 range through the first half of the season)
Singleton -- 51

[closg00]

The votes by-pick

Kyrie Irving, Cleveland - 1
Ricky Rubio, Minnesota - 5 (2009)
Kenneth Faried, Denver - 22
Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio - 15
Iman Shumpert, New York - 17
Klay Thompson, Golden State - 11
Isaiah Thomas, Sacramento - 60
Brandon Knight, Detroit - 8
Chandler Parsons, Houston - 38
MarShon Brooks, New Jersey - 25
Kemba Walker, Charlotte - 9
Josh Selby, Memphis - 49

[willbcocks]

In my own PER-like analysis, these were the most productive rookies per minute this year:

Thompson and Walker were okay, but rated solidly below average. Shumpert, Knight and Brooks were at or below replacement level. Selby rated as one of the worst players in the league this year -- where 100 is league average, he scored a -44 in the rating system I used this year.

I'm a bit surprised. My system rates Walker and Knight the same. Walker can't shoot, Knight's A/TO ratio is terrible, and the rest of their stats are mediocre.

[closg00]

In my own PER-like analysis, these were the most productive rookies per minute this year:

Thompson and Walker were okay, but rated solidly below average. Shumpert, Knight and Brooks were at or below replacement level. Selby rated as one of the worst players in the league this year -- where 100 is league average, he scored a -44 in the rating system I used this year.

I'm a bit surprised. My system rates Walker and Knight the same. Walker can't shoot, Knight's A/TO ratio is terrible, and the rest of their stats are mediocre.

...then-again, they are both rookies playing on bad teams during a shortened season. They got more votes than Vesely who received zero votes.