Official 2012 Blue Jays MLB Draft Thread (June 4 - 6)

J.Kim · Post #41 » by **J.Kim** » Wed May 2, 2012 2:06 pm

Hmm, I read Part 1 again and something stuck out for me:

Roughly 10 percent of the players in the data set have no date-of-birth information available—most of these players flamed out of pro ball too quickly to leave an impression.

Aren't most High School prospects regarded as Boom/Bust-types, compared to College players who are usually regarded as known quantities?

Isn't there a likely chance that a majority of these 10% are made up of High School students? And if so, isn't there also a likely chance that this number is material enough to affect the results of this survey? 10% could be a big enough sample set that affects the entire outcome of this study - you can't exactly throw that out considering the aim of this research...

Schad · Post #42 » by **Schad** » Wed May 2, 2012 6:52 pm

High school kids generally don't flame out that quickly, though, especially if they are taken with picks in the top few rounds.

Take Eric Eiland, who was as busty as busty can be...he simply could not hit a baseball. He lasted four seasons and over 1000 PAs before the Jays cut him loose.

-MetA4- · Post #43 » by **-MetA4-** » Thu May 10, 2012 10:28 pm

Jim Callis released his first mock draft:

17. BLUE JAYS: Since taking over as Toronto general manager in October 2009, Alex Anthopoulos has stockpiled high-ceiling athletes. With that focus and five of the first 60 selections, the Blue Jays are the most logical candidate to gamble on Giolito. Some teams aren't sold that Florida high school righthander Lance McCullers Jr. is a starter rather than a reliever, but he has top-shelf stuff with a mid-90s fastball and a hard slider.
Projected Pick: LANCE McCULLERS JR.

22. BLUE JAYS: Few players in this draft can match the ceiling or helium of Davis, a speedster with a promising bat. Toronto also could take a chance on someone like Smoral or Florida high school righthander Zach Eflin, who might not have lasted this long if he hadn't missed a month with triceps tendinitis. This is the only supplemental pick of the first round this year, one the Blue Jays get for failing to sign Tyler Beede at No. 21 overall out of last year's draft.
Projected Pick: D.J. DAVIS.

Wally West · Post #44 » by **Wally West** » Thu May 10, 2012 10:37 pm

-MetA4- wrote:Jim Callis released his first mock draft:

17. BLUE JAYS: Since taking over as Toronto general manager in October 2009, Alex Anthopoulos has stockpiled high-ceiling athletes. With that focus and five of the first 60 selections, the Blue Jays are the most logical candidate to gamble on Giolito. Some teams aren't sold that Florida high school righthander Lance McCullers Jr. is a starter rather than a reliever, but he has top-shelf stuff with a mid-90s fastball and a hard slider.
Projected Pick: LANCE McCULLERS JR.

22. BLUE JAYS: Few players in this draft can match the ceiling or helium of Davis, a speedster with a promising bat. Toronto also could take a chance on someone like Smoral or Florida high school righthander Zach Eflin, who might not have lasted this long if he hadn't missed a month with triceps tendinitis. This is the only supplemental pick of the first round this year, one the Blue Jays get for failing to sign Tyler Beede at No. 21 overall out of last year's draft.
Projected Pick: D.J. DAVIS.

I wouldn't mind taking a chance on Lance McCullers. Most people think that he won't end up a starter and is more of a reliever but he has great stuff and is worth the gamble. D.J. Davis sounds like Anthony Gose or even James Harris whom was taken last year with the last pick in the 1st compensation round by the Tampa Bay Rays who probably would've been our 3rd compensation pick in the 1st round had Dwight Smith Jr. been off the board. An explosive athlete. AA type.

-MetA4- · Post #45 » by **-MetA4-** » Fri May 11, 2012 4:21 am

blackflash234 wrote:I wouldn't mind taking a chance on Lance McCullers. Most people think that he won't end up a starter and is more of a reliever but he has great stuff and is worth the gamble.

Definitely worth the gamble. I think there is some over-thinking going on there; he has shown improvement and his stuff is elite. One of the PG guys compared him to Gerrit Cole who was also questioned about being able to start out of HS (in the sense that he kept proving the skeptics wrong).

D.J. Davis sounds like Anthony Gose or even James Harris whom was taken last year with the last pick in the 1st compensation round by the Tampa Bay Rays who probably would've been our 3rd compensation pick in the 1st round had Dwight Smith Jr. been off the board. An explosive athlete. AA type.

Yes; he's a lot like a Gose except his arm isn't anywhere near as good but his hit tool may be looking a bit more advanced than Gose's was. Either way he would be a perfect pick for us: deep and very strong farm system with a lot of top picks in this draft = you can afford to take a gamble on a tool-box like Davis. He is also one of the younger HS kids in this class so his late improvement can be related to his age. Another big positive on Davis is his signability: he is a kid who is committed to sign with a JUCO because he was a late riser. He's not likely to cut a significant under-slot deal or anything; but he should be an easy kid to sign for slot which under the new CBA is a big deal. I only hope that someone doesn't overdraft him ahead of us in an attempt to get some sort of under-slot deal done.

Gallo is another gamble that I'm starting to think is absolutely worth taking. He has true All-Star type upside.

Schad · Post #46 » by **Schad** » Fri May 11, 2012 5:04 am

-MetA4- wrote:Definitely worth the gamble. I think there is some over-thinking going on there; he has shown improvement and his stuff is elite. One of the PG guys compared him to Gerrit Cole who was also questioned about being able to start out of HS (in the sense that he kept proving the skeptics wrong).

Yeah, his biggest issue is that he has gotten overexposed...scouts have been all over him for a couple years now, so they're all familiar enough with his strengths that they fixate on his flaws. Were he a pop-up prospect that just burst on to the scene this year, I guarantee that he'd go in the top ten, probably higher.

Kaizen · Post #47 » by **Kaizen** » Sat May 12, 2012 11:33 pm

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/ ... -prospects

Kaizen · Post #48 » by **Kaizen** » Sat May 12, 2012 11:38 pm

LANCE McCULLERS JR. is #25 and D.J. DAVIS is #66.

Wally West · Post #49 » by **Wally West** » Sun May 13, 2012 8:17 pm

Jim Callis ‏ @jimcallisBA

Yes. They get No. 23 pick in 2013 if this one doesn't sign. @sje32: Under new CBA , #BlueJays' 22nd pick protected? #mlbdraft

-MetA4- · Post #50 » by **-MetA4-** » Mon May 14, 2012 2:02 am

From Bob Elliott yesterday:

Jays scouting director Andrew Tinnish and Dana Brown, assistant to the GM Anthopoulos, were scouting 6-foot-3 right-hander Duane Underwood of Marietta, Ga. Underwood is ranked 65th overall by the Perfect Game Scouting Bureau

Al_Oliver · Post #51 » by **Al_Oliver** » Tue May 15, 2012 9:28 pm

KLaw projects us taking these two in the First round:

Toronto Blue JaysGavin Cecchini, SS, Barbe, H.S. (Lake Charles, La.)
The younger brother of Red Sox third-base prospect Garin Cecchini is a better hitting and fielding prospect. Also hearing the Jays linked to Florida prep righty Nick Travieso, Louisiana high school catcher Stryker Trahan, Mississippi high school outfielder D.J. Davis and Gallo. In other words, the Blue Jays sound like they're going for ceiling.

Toronto Blue JaysNick Travieso, RHP, Archbishop McCarthy H.S. (Southwest Ranches, Fla.)
This is a compensation pick the Blue Jays got for failing to sign first-rounder Tyler Beede a year ago. (Beede ended up at Vanderbilt.) In addition to Travieso, I've also heard Toronto linked to Georgia high school right-hander Duane Underwood, but more likely in the sandwich round.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/draft/20 ... -draft-mlb

Schad · Post #52 » by **Schad** » Wed May 16, 2012 6:38 am

If people are right, and our targets are the likes of Cecchini, Trahan, McCullers, Davis and Gallo, I'm **** sold. We've been highly aggressive overall of late, but a little bit less so with our top picks; that's a clutch of players who aren't at all wanting for upside. Glad to hear that the Beede experience and the new slotting system is not restraining the team from the sort of over-the-top aggression we've come to love.

Garmfay · Post #53 » by **Garmfay** » Wed May 16, 2012 5:17 pm

I'm not entirely sold. I still think we will take a "safe college pitcher" with one of our top picks

mikero · Post #54 » by **mikero** » Wed May 16, 2012 6:23 pm

From what I've read, this might be the worst college draft class in the last 10 or even 20 years. With the minor league pitching depth, I think the Jays can afford to target some high upside HS arms. I also really like the idea of grabbing a MI like Cecchini, or if he's not available Addison Russell.

Wally West · Post #55 » by **Wally West** » Wed May 16, 2012 7:24 pm

Man if we end up with two of McCullers, Davis or Gallo, we had a great draft.

How would you rank Cecchini, Trahan, McCullers, Davis and Gallo in terms of upside and what they project out to be?

Al_Oliver · Post #56 » by **Al_Oliver** » Wed May 16, 2012 8:21 pm

Garmfay wrote:I'm not entirely sold. I still think we will take a "safe college pitcher" with one of our top picks

like Deck McGuire?

Moxie · Post #57 » by **Moxie** » Wed May 16, 2012 9:47 pm

In terms of Awesome Name Rankings, I would have to hope for an early round haul including

1. Stryker Trahan
2. Lance McCullers Jr./Walker Weickel
3. Hunter Virant/Clint Coulter

I'm a bit of a sucker for alliteration when it comes to names though, so Weickel and Coulter might have a bit too much helium in my rankings.

Are there any later round sleepers I should know of?

Wally West · Post #58 » by **Wally West** » Wed May 16, 2012 10:00 pm

Al_Oliver wrote:
Garmfay wrote:I'm not entirely sold. I still think we will take a "safe college pitcher" with one of our top picks

like Deck McGuire?

mikero · Post #59 » by **mikero** » Wed May 16, 2012 10:35 pm

Moxie wrote:In terms of Awesome Name Rankings, I would have to hope for an early round haul including

1. Stryker Trahan
2. Lance McCullers Jr./Walker Weickel
3. Hunter Virant/Clint Coulter

I'm a bit of a sucker for alliteration when it comes to names though, so Weickel and Coulter might have a bit too much helium in my rankings.

Are there any later round sleepers I should know of?

Don't forget about Skye Bolt.

-MetA4- · Post #60 » by **-MetA4-** » Thu May 17, 2012 12:17 am

From the latest BA Draft Tracker:

Max White, of, Williston (Fla.) HS
White is frequently compared to fellow prep Florida outfielder Brett Phillips as athletic, speedy center fielders. White is more of a wiry athlete at 6-foot-2, 175 pounds, and has a good profile for the position as a lefthanded speedster with range and arm strength.

White emerged as a prospect as a sophomore as both a pitcher and hitter, but left shoulder surgery limited him to just five games as a junior and has made him more of a prospect as a hitter. His arm strength has started to return this season, and he has registered some low 90s readings in short stints on the mound.

Scouts like White's tools in center, as he is a consistent 6.5-second runner over 60 yards with improving instincts. He is adding strength and has shown batting practice power with surprising bat speed, but scouts have to project on his bat. He has a somewhat raw approach at the plate and hasn't faced a lot of advanced pitching this spring.

Scouts have compared him to players such as former Florida outfielder Matt den Dekker (now with the Mets) all the way to Steve Finley if his power develops. He isn't a consensus supplemental pick, but he could go that high to the right team if it considers him signable. The Dodgers, Padres and Blue Jays all have had serious heat in to see White of late.