Raptors NBA Draft Thread: Harrison Barnes

[Ell Curry]

A pro-Barnes stat:

"Prior to Barnes' ankle sprain on January 31 at Wake Forest, he was shooting 45% from 3. Afterwards, 28%."

Now, that could be a result of open looks against teams like "Elon, Monmouth, Nicholls, Miss. Valley State," who had to double Zeller and Henson and such, but it might also mean he's become a great 3 point shooter and he just wasn't effective shooting it after the injury, which has healed by now. Small sample sizes, though.

I keep reading the Glen Rice comparison, but that guy shot between 55 and 57 percent all 4 years in college. Barnes was more than 10 percent lower in each of his two years, although Rice didn't take 3's until he was a junior, so that stat is somewhat skewed.

[lolwut]

Marvin Williams clone? They even went to the same school.

[lander]

A pro-Barnes stat:

"Prior to Barnes' ankle sprain on January 31 at Wake Forest, he was shooting 45% from 3. Afterwards, 28%."

Now, that could be a result of open looks against teams like "Elon, Monmouth, Nicholls, Miss. Valley State," who had to double Zeller and Henson and such, but it might also mean he's become a great 3 point shooter and he just wasn't effective shooting it after the injury, which has healed by now. Small sample sizes, though.

I keep reading the Glen Rice comparison, but that guy shot between 55 and 57 percent all 4 years in college. Barnes was more than 10 percent lower in each of his two years, although Rice didn't take 3's until he was a junior, so that stat is somewhat skewed.

They're comparing Glen Rice in his sophomore year to Barnes now. In his 2nd year Rice only shot 25% from the 3. He only took 12 attempts. He had 56% FG that year. The years after don't really matter because we don't know what Barnes would be like as a player if he stayed longer, but logic would say he would get better, so who knows.

I think people really expected Barnes to be like his NBA comparisons coming out of high school and became disappointed when he didn't put up the numbers. That's why there are people more impressed with lesser prospects. Barnes probably will not be a Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant or Grant Hill but he could still be the second best player out of this draft. I feel bad for the team that picks MKG over him, a high motor is great but it doesn't beat actual skills and quite honestly Barnes is just a lot more skilled.

I think UNC was the worst system for Barnes to play. He never really had a chance from the day he chose that school. If its funny but everyone expected him to dominate but even if he was capable that's not a system that allows that kind of play. It's very point guard and team oriented. When you watch the games you begin to realize quickly he’s treated like a role player.

[lander]

Marvin Williams clone? They even went to the same school.

Marvin is a tweener that was drafted 2nd overall because of potential. He wasn't even a starter at UNC he was a 6th man. If anything Barnes will be selected lower than he should be, not higher lol but yeah they're completely the same down to the fact that they will both be two rich black men that went to UNC.

[Undefeated]

You can't just ignore college production. The game isn't a beauty contest. It's about making your team more likely to score on an offensive possession and get a stop on the other end. Repeated 90 times or so.

The only thing Barnes did in college better than an average 2nd round pick was play man on man defense. If he's going to take a bunch of contested long 2's, I don't see what that's going to do to help his team win. Can you name an efficient scorer in the league who couldn't hit over 47% of his 2pt shots in college?

Of course college production are important, but it's not the be all, end all when breaking down a prospects game. If it were like that then there would be no point to watching the games, right? All frederick and I are doing is that we're breaking down Barnes' game on a microscopic level and looking at which parts of his individual skill level with translate to the NBA. His ability to score off the triple-threat and screen-and-rolls are positive since a lot of good scorers in the NBA use those same actions too. It gives the people who want Barnes an optimistic view. But to shoot down the scouting report like it's a beauty contest and relying heavily on stats only shows how much you've watched of Barnes.

It's not like Barnes had a choice to take a bunch of contested long two-pointers. He was forced to take those shots because of his role which I said was as a last-second, bail out sniper. His 2-pt% shooting doesn't paint well in contrast to Bradley Beal, Jeremy Lamb, Dion Waiters or Terrence Ross because he took such a high volume of those shots. Double-digit attempts unlike his counterparts. I mean, it can be argued that if Barnes took less 2PtA his percentage could be higher which is true when looking at his freshman numbers.

[Undefeated]

I think UNC was the worst system for Barnes to play. He never really had a chance from the day he chose that school. If its funny but everyone expected him to dominate but even if he was capable that's not a system that allows that kind of play. It's very point guard and team oriented. When you watch the games you begin to realize quickly he’s treated like a role player.

It's good someone else took note of this.

[5DOM]

His skill set IS that of a role player. I think he was in a pretty good situation compared to other kids playing college ball.

[5DOM]

It's not like Barnes had a choice to take a bunch of contested long two-pointers. He was forced to take those shots because of his role which I said was as a last-second, bail out sniper. His 2-pt% shooting doesn't paint well in contrast to Bradley Beal, Jeremy Lamb, Dion Waiters or Terrence Ross because he took such a high volume of those shots. Double-digit attempts unlike his counterparts. I mean, it can be argued that if Barnes took less 2PtA his percentage could be higher which is true when looking at his freshman numbers.

Barnes actually took some very bad shots regardless of the shot clock situation. Even in the elimination game, the guy was shooting long range fadeaways over players who were half a foot shorter than him. And it's not just him who was a "last-second, bail out sniper". Lamb had to take a lot of those himself because UCONN's offense doesn't do anything until clock hits 1.

[Ell Curry]

You can't just ignore college production. The game isn't a beauty contest. It's about making your team more likely to score on an offensive possession and get a stop on the other end. Repeated 90 times or so.

The only thing Barnes did in college better than an average 2nd round pick was play man on man defense. If he's going to take a bunch of contested long 2's, I don't see what that's going to do to help his team win. Can you name an efficient scorer in the league who couldn't hit over 47% of his 2pt shots in college?

Of course college production are important, but it's not the be all, end all when breaking down a prospects game. If it were like that then there would be no point to watching the games, right? All frederick and I are doing is that we're breaking down Barnes' game on a microscopic level and looking at which parts of his individual skill level with translate to the NBA. His ability to score off the triple-threat and screen-and-rolls are positive since a lot of good scorers in the NBA use those same actions too. It gives the people who want Barnes an optimistic view. But to shoot down the scouting report like it's a beauty contest and relying heavily on stats only shows how much you've watched of Barnes.

It's not like Barnes had a choice to take a bunch of contested long two-pointers. He was forced to take those shots because of his role which I said was as a last-second, bail out sniper. His 2-pt% shooting doesn't paint well in contrast to Bradley Beal, Jeremy Lamb, Dion Waiters or Terrence Ross because he took such a high volume of those shots. Double-digit attempts unlike his counterparts. I mean, it can be argued that if Barnes took less 2PtA his percentage could be higher which is true when looking at his freshman numbers.

1. As discussed earlier, wings at UNC have been better scorers than Barnes under Roy Williams. Not different. Better.

-Harrison Barnes put up 17.1 a game with a TS% of .528 as a sophomore
-Wayne Ellington put up 16.6 a game with a TS% of .576 as a sophomore
-Rashad McCants put up 20.0 a game with a TS% of .590 as a sophomore

2. Looking at possession %, Barnes was around the same as Ross, Barton and Waiters (played 5-6 minute less a game, but while on the court, as much a go to guy as Barnes), but it's true that Lamb and Beal did take less shots.

3. Re: The Pick and Roll
"On the offensive end, Barnes ranked in the 73rd percentile in transition, 65th in post-ups, 64th in isolation, 64th as the ball handler in the pick-and-roll, and 60th when coming off screens."

You can't just claim he has an ability to score off of pick and rolls, unless what you mean is "he has an ability to score off of pick and rolls, but not as well as 36% of college players, the overwhelming majority of whom will not be drafted.

You could also be referring to him as the screener, but I haven't seen any proof he's any better at that than any 3, though it could be out there. Is that what you meant?

http://www.hoopsworld.com/nba2-harrison ... um=twitter

[lander]

His skill set IS that of a role player. I think he was in a pretty good situation compared to other kids playing college ball.

I happen to disagree and think had he gone to any of the other schools he was considering he would have succeed. For example had he gone to Kansas he would've been a better collegiate player. I mean come on do you really think Barnes is a lesser talent in comparison to TRob? Some team will take TRob possibly as high as 2nd. Most schools fit their system to suit their players, but UNC fits the players to fit the system. I mean c'mon what other school is better at making role players look better than they are i.e. Marvin Williams.
I personally believe Barnes needed to be the focus. He was basically treated by the defence as if he was the best player anyway. My point is everyone but Roy Williams treated Barnes like he had the team built around him. Do you think that it's a coincidence that all the wing players at UNC look the same? All highly touted high schoolers and yet none of them seemingly know how to do anything besides spot up. Ole Roy can't adjust to the personnel so he makes the personnel adjust to his system. It’s all jmho.

[lander]

I think UNC was the worst system for Barnes to play. He never really had a chance from the day he chose that school. If its funny but everyone expected him to dominate but even if he was capable that's not a system that allows that kind of play. It's very point guard and team oriented. When you watch the games you begin to realize quickly he’s treated like a role player.

It's good someone else took note of this.

I think to be honest the difference we watched a lot of UNC games and other people are reading scouting reports. Everbody and their mom has an opinion on this guy lol. I've been watching him since last year so I see it a little differently.

[Undefeated]

Barnes actually took some very bad shots regardless of the shot clock situation. Even in the elimination game, the guy was shooting long range fadeaways over players who were half a foot shorter than him. And it's not just him who was a "last-second, bail out sniper". Lamb had to take a lot of those himself because UCONN's offense doesn't do anything until clock hits 1.

If you're talking about his game against Ohio, then yeah, he played awful that game. I was in disbelief how he didn't even bother to take advantage of a smaller defender by backing him down. But against Kansas he wasn't that bad. Played much better in the 2nd half where he was putting the ball on the deck and taking it right at Jeff Whitey drawing fouls left and right. That was the first time Roy Williams actually made an adjustment by taking the ball out of Stilman White's hand and allowed Barnes to go to work. It was too little too late. But to be honest, I don't know where you're bringing up how Barnes has bad shot selection because of all the games I've seen, not once did I notice how he was going out of his way to look for his own offense say like Austin Rivers. Most of his shots were from spot-ups from the corner or a tight curl coming down on a pindown screen for the catch-and-shoot. One or two fadeaways off the dribble each game doesn't mean he has bad shot selection.

[5DOM]

It's just that he takes way too many contested long range jumpers in general - IMO the reason why he shot below 40% against ranked teams and/or in tournaments. And when he tries to take over the game, it gets worse.

I've said this many times but I just don't think he plays as smart as people think he is. He just doesn't particularly pass/defend well or take good shots.

[Dr Positivity]

I could see Barnes being used in the pnr... but IMO, as the non ballhandler, if he indeed plays smallball 4 minutes. The guy who pops out for the shot and spaces the floor for the driver.

[Undefeated]

It's just that he takes way too many contested long range jumpers in general - IMO the reason why he shot below 40% against ranked teams and/or in tournaments. And when he tries to take over the game, it gets worse.

I've said this many times but I just don't think he plays as smart as people think he is. He just doesn't particularly pass/defend well or take good shots.

As said earlier, the only reason Barnes takes the two dribble long-range two-point jumper is because of the clock running down. Whether you choose to ignore it or not is your choice, but that's a fact. There's not much Barnes can do when that's the only available shot for him in the half-court. Ditto for Reggie Bullock and P.J. Hariston. I don't know how much you've watched of UNC basketball this year, but this is what I observed how Barnes would get his looks at the basket. UNC thrived on getting out in transition since they had such great big mans running the floor and a magnificent PG who always looked to dart an outlet pass ahead. With that, either Barnes, Zeller, or Henson would receive the catch on the run for the go-ahead lay-up. If the primary break wasn't there for a lay-up, they wait for the Barnes give-and-go rim-attack or Barnes would trail Kendall Marshall ready for the catch-and-shoot from three off of the secondary break. It's kind of similar to how the Heat run their offense in transition with the pace and space. If Barnes couldn't score on those plays, he was essentially limited in the half-court waiting for the last-second jumper.

Basically, here's how UNC's offense would work in the half-court if they couldn't convert their baskets on the primary or secondary break. You'd have Kendall Marshall up top at the key scanning through options, but it's obvious he wants to get the ball down low to either John Henson or Tyler Zeller. Doesn't matter which big, but one of the two would position themselves in the low post and the other in the pinch post. If Zeller or Henson puts up a shot from underneath the basket, the other one from the pinch post would crash the offensive glass for the putback jam since he's being unguarded with his man helping out down low. If their first option didn't work, Marshall would then have to reverse the ball to either his left or right depending on where the bigs are positioned in the post to improve passing angles. That's how Roy Williams' double-post motion offense works. From there, Barnes, Bullock or Hariston would have to feed the bigs. If UNC couldn't make the entry pass from the wing, Marshall gets the ball back up top at the key with either a reset of the ball reversal or a dribble hand-off. 10-15 seconds have been shed off of the 35-second shot clock now. UNC now goes into a screen-and-roll with one of the bigs coming down from the post to set a screen for Marshall. Marshall turns the corner, and has a plethora of options opening up for him. If Henson was the screener, instead of diving to the rim, he'd pop on the screen for the 17-foot jumper which he literally sucks at. Sometime, UNC would run a little high-low action with Henson connecting Zeller on the alley-oop. Or if Zeller is the screener, he'd roll to the basket aggressively with Marhsall finding him by threading the needle with a perfect bounce pass or a drop-off wrap-around pass underneath for an uncontested lay-up. Or Marshall would take the ball all the way to the hoop by himself for the lefty lay-up. But due to how congested driving lanes are at the collegiate level, it's now always easy for Marshall to make these sort of drives or passes. He's notorious for leaving his feet and making passes mid-air with those skip pass to Barnes, Bullock or Hariston for the open three. Ultimately, if those plays could not manufacture quality looks at the basket, it's all up to Barnes to create off the dribble. This is why I've been saying Barnes is left with relatively very little time remaining on the shot-clock to work with and his two dribble pull-up from the three-point line has become to be what's known his go-to move. From here, he does that pump fake, forces man to leave the ground and draw foul which is very dumb for the defender because the clock is winding down or he gets a screen for the foul-line jumper. Because of this, I don't think Barnes has shown what he's capable of doing when he gets touches. Good team ball means everyone on the floor gets to touch the ball at least once to get a feel of it, but sometimes, the wings don't even have a chance of feeling the ball at all. So, it doesn't mean that Barnes can't pass.

All this about how "smart" a prospect is subjective either way. You may think he's not a smart ball for the reasons you believe, but I see otherwise. Of the 15 teams that made the NCAA tournament and Barnes played against, he managed to convert his baskets on 0.432 FG%. We're dealing with a small sample size here, but he shot ~44% against ranked opponents this year in 7 games. I'm not fully understanding where you got that he shot below 40% from the field against ranked opponents.

[Undefeated]

I could see Barnes being used in the pnr... but IMO, as the non ballhandler, if he indeed plays smallball 4 minutes. The guy who pops out for the shot and spaces the floor for the driver.

Considering how Barnes has already shown to score in pick-and-roll actions as the ball-handler, I don't see why he can't do it. Here's a breakdown I did a few months back.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r5dVMCRc1rg[/youtube]

0:10 – James McAdoo comes up and sets a screen. Barnes starts in a triple-threat position. McAdoo’s defender hedges out on the screen to stop the drive since Barnes gave a little jab leading the ball towards the right side misdirecting his defender. Instead, Barnes spins inside to the left with a clear path down the baseline. With his defender trailing, he gets an uncontested two-handed flush at the rim. What he demonstrates is a good job of surveying the floor before making his move to the basket and a series of misdirection forcing the defenders to react playing into his hands.

0:20 – Barnes comes off a pinned down and catches the ball up top. Dribbles towards the basket with a couple of inside-out dribbles before pulling up for the jumper. Hesitation moves like these is going to allow Barnes to keep his defender on their heels. Capable of driving to the basket and absorbing the bumps along the way and pulling up for the jumper, what can the defense do?

0:52 – Once again, Barnes initiates his offense in a triple-threat position. McAdoo sets the screen, and with a single jab step, Barnes already has his defender pinned on the screen. Barnes explodes off the screen after cutting shoulder-to-shoulder with McAdoo; he’s a step ahead of his defender. Stops on a dime at the free-throw line, steps back and drains the fallaway pull up jumper.

Through this whole sequence, notice how Barnes’ back is almost horizontal to the floor. Not Derrick Rose by any means, but staying low has helped improve Barnes’ explosiveness. Also, Barnes does an excellent job of keeping the ball away from his defender. Instead of leading the dribble forward where there’s a higher chance of the ball being stolen, he dribbles on the side of his body. If the defender tries to steal the ball, that’s an automatic reaching foul.

1:01 – Barnes side pick-and-roll with John Henson. Barnes’ defender goes under the screen for whatever reason, and Henson slips the screens and rolls. Barnes has the option of pulling up for an open jumper or makes the jump pass to Henson on the roll. As Barnes’ defender is still recovering, Henson’s defender turns his head away from Barnes and dashes back to recover onto Henson before Barnes’ defender even has a shot of coming back into play. Barnes easily reads the miscommunication, and nails the trey. This isn’t a guy who can run the pick-and-roll? For real?

1:17 – Starts offense in triple-threat, again. Ball fake towards the left, defender bites and reacts. With the defender’s weight and force on the left, he can’t possibly react quick enough to defend Barnes’ drive being so off-balance to cut him off. Help defender slides over in an attempt to draw the charge. Barnes goes up for a running floater off glass.

[5DOM]

I didn't get to read your post entirely yet, but for now here's how I got the FG%

Code: Select all

10/11
Illinois   2   9
Kentucky   4   10
Texas   5   10
Duke   3   8
Duke   7   17
Duke   6   15
LIU Brooklyn   9   19
Washington   9   19
Marquette   7   18
Kentucky   7   19
      
11/12      
Wisconsin   6   12
Kentucky   5   12
Duke   8   16
Virginia   4   15
Duke   6   14
Florida   9   18
Vermont   5   12
Creighton   7   19
Ohio   3   16
Kansas   5   14


for 40.07 FG%, so I stand corrected. He didn't shoot over 50% a single time though.

[Dr Positivity]

To me being a pnr ballhandler comes down to

a) The speed/ballhandling to consistently get into the paint after the screen (Questionable at best for Barnes against NBA competition)
b) The passing ability and court vision to set up the roller/popper, or other players spreading the floor (Nothing about his game indicates this)

Basically to be a pnr ballhandler you have to be a dynamic enough on ball threat to have the offense ran through you. A guy like James Harden can do it because he's a fantastic ballhandler and passer, he sees the game like a point. When I look at Barnes I see a player who's BIGGEST WEAKNESS are the things that make a pick and roll ballhandler - ballhandling, ability to attack the paint and passing/court vision. I see players who are overall more gifted than Barnes like Danny Granger, Rudy Gay, Luol Deng and even extending it to Carmelo and Durant - and I wouldn't even call any of them "pick and roll ballhandler"s, at least in the definition I use. Are you using a different one? Those guys can use screens but it's in a quick strike score type of way, which I suppose I could justify for Barnes. He can be the guy who comes off screens for a J or one dribble drive... I've said it before, Barnes reminds me of a SF Bargnani in offensive skillset. However much Bargnani utilizes the pnr is about what I'd say for Barnes as well.

[Ell Curry]

I could see Barnes being used in the pnr... but IMO, as the non ballhandler, if he indeed plays smallball 4 minutes. The guy who pops out for the shot and spaces the floor for the driver.

Considering how Barnes has already shown to score in pick-and-roll actions as the ball-handler, I don't see why he can't do it.

This is on the page before, but once again:

"On the offensive end, Barnes ranked in the 73rd percentile in transition, 65th in post-ups, 64th in isolation, 64th as the ball handler in the pick-and-roll, and 60th when coming off screens." http://www.hoopsworld.com/nba2-nba-cham ... -the-count

You can't just claim he has shown an ability to score off of pick and rolls, unless what you mean is "he has shown more ability to score off of pick and rolls than 63 percent of college players, but has shown less ability than 36% of college players, the overwhelming majority of whom will not be drafted."

I gave you that information and cited it. Why are you ignoring it? You can't just pick a good game of his and claim he has done something when he hasn't. Barnes could live up to his high school hype. But don't lie and claim he has.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Moynihan

[Undefeated]

I gave you that information and cited it. Why are you ignoring it? You can't just pick a good game of his and claim he has done something when he hasn't. Barnes could live up to his high school hype. But don't lie and claim he has.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Moynihan

I'm not ignoring anything. You said you haven't seen it, and I show it you. What more you want guy? Don't believe me? Go read up DX bud.