Jonas Valanciunas 11/12 Season Thread III

[Kevin Willis]

Jonas V has already shown more in his basketball career than all of the busts listed above combined. He's also shown more than others who've had long, long careers. He has a good motor unlike POB, Kwame. He has the physical tools unlike Hoffa.

I don't get this bust talk - if Hibbert can be an all-star I'm more inclined to go in that direction. Because really looking at it the whole draft this year can be a bust outside of Davis and players who have showed as much Jonas V. on are not usually a bust ie. Rubio, Rudy. Dude ate up U.S. U18 team.

[raptor21_85]

Ill take the bet. BC is known to sign underserving players long term. So whether he excels or not, Im sure BC will ensure this bet is a sure win.

This would be true except for that fact that, if Valanciunas pulls a Haffa there's no way in hell BC has his job 5 years from now

epa.. hopefully, Jonas turns out into a decent prospect..

[Dr Positivity]

Sorry Dr. Mufasa

but this statement "my PREDICTION is an Anderson Varejao type of career as a semi limited 10/10 hustle big. Just that the guy doesn't jump out as an NBA player" - just seems contradictory.

How is AV, 10/10 type career, not jump out as an NBA player? is AV not an NBA Player? is that not a double double career? I mean what did you think when he dominated the comp at the world juniors. Then fared well vs Kaman, Noah, Dirk, at the Worlds?

I'm saying that when I watched the games he didn't jump out as an NBA talent over everyone else on the 2 teams, but I'm willing to get him the benefit of the doubt because of his production/work ethic/how much people believe in him that he'll rebound at a high level on both ends, and if he can do that in combination with his size and touch around the basket he can turn himself into a 10/10 energy player. Rebounding stats are said to translate the best (from NCAA/Europe to the NBA) so he would be an anamoly if he didn't rebound at 10rpg knowing his numbers now, but anamolies can happen

[Listas]

*backpedalling on **** he wrote before and got ridiculed for*

You're just a gift that keeps on giving.

[fredericklove]

If Jonas becomes a good centre then we need a formal apology from that person for making some of the most biased comments about VAL. A big who plays tough in the paint, rebound and shoots good ft and has an underrated post skills. I don't know what's there to irrationally argue about.

[nahom1319]

*backpedalling on **** he wrote before and got ridiculed for*

You're just a gift that keeps on giving.

Come on don't ridicule him like that. You gotta remember these are the posts he's willing to share. Just imagine what golden posts he has yet to written because of the amount of hate he gets around here....

[Fairview4Life]

[UcanUwill]

I'm saying that when I watched the games he didn't jump out as an NBA talent over everyone else on the 2 teams, but I'm willing to get him the benefit of the doubt because of his production/work ethic/how much people believe in him that he'll rebound at a high level on both ends, and if he can do that in combination with his size and touch around the basket he can turn himself into a 10/10 energy player. Rebounding stats are said to translate the best (from NCAA/Europe to the NBA) so he would be an anamoly if he didn't rebound at 10rpg knowing his numbers now, but anamolies can happen

What do you mean he dint jump out as an NBA talent over everyone else out there? He is NBA player all over him, just look at his length, finishing, coordination. No need to be PRO scout to see this... I dont know where you looking at, while you ''watching'' him play...
Or do you think all the current Euros in the NBA dominated Europe at the time, or were best players out there at least? You think 19 year old should stand out as superior player in Euroleague competitions? Thats insane, that never happens.
He already is the most successful young Euro since Pau. Statistically speaking, he did better job, than Marc Gasol, during his final year in ''Akasvayu''... His Euro stats actually better than Leonards'' NCAA stats. We coming to statistical paradoxes over here already.

What else do you need? What exactly worries you? You think he will be defensive liability going forward? He is very young, his D will get better and as every 19-20 year old kid, he is not anchor yet. Only thing that worries me about his D, is his awkward post D fundamentals... Is his offensive game worries you? He showed his finishing ability against number of NBA players, and IMO he has one of the best touches around the rim in basketball. Is rebounding a problem, cause his rebounding rates are dominant. In comparison, his last year rebound rates were 3x better than Jan Vesely's.

[LithuanianOne]

I can safely bet after watching JV this season that he will definitely average more than 10points a game during his prime years. I'm not even sure what tape is Mufasa watching - but hey at least he started watching games instead of highlights.

[from24ft]

Is 7% supposed to be convincing as some sort of "It can't happen" type of number? Thabeet and Skita (not a C really but still 7 foot Euro) being included would also raise that number. I'm sure the %s for lotto picked SFs is around 90-95%+ as well. Didn't help Ammo and Joe Alexander, or Wes Johnson if he continues to look like this. For PGs it's likely around 90-95% and Jonny Flynn looks like out of the NBA soon. Just because things don't happen often doesn't mean they won't

But let's say your 7% number is right. 2011 lotto had 3 Cs (Kanter, Valanciunas, Biyombo) and we know Kanter and Biyombo are NBA players. If you multiply 93% * 93% * 93%, you get 80.4% chance of what I'll call "3 for 3 non stiffy" with those Cs. If the number is 10% all out bust potential each (justification: all 3 players were extremely young internationals), 90% * 90% * 90% is 72.4%. But are we sure these numbers are right? What if the bust factor for extremely young, international Cs like Kanter/Biyombo/Valanciunas in a draft where the lack of talent made GMs desperate for a young center, something like 18%. I did 82% * 82% * 82% and I got 55.1%.

Wow.... that is one hell of a backpeddle, reading the above you don't even need to do any scouting you just need to have a supe duper calculator.


What happens if you plug in the following into that calculator of yours?

- LKL Champion (2010)
- LKF Cup (2010)
- 3× LKL All-Star (2010, 2011, 2012)
- 2× LKL All-Star Game MVP (2011, 2012)
- FIBA Europe Under-16 Championship MVP (2008)
- European Under-18 All-Star Game MVP (2009)
- FIBA Europe Under-18 Championship (2010)
- FIBA World Under-19 Championship MVP (2011)
- Lithuania Basketball Player Of The Year (2011)
- FIBA European Young Player of the Year (2011)
- Eurocup Rising Star (2012)
- All-Eurocup First Team (2012)
- LKL Regular Season MVP (2012)


...what are the chances that its ALL fluke(calculator time)?. How can you even mention Thabette and Hoffa in the same breath? Did Hibbert jump out at you as an NBA player when you watched him in college? That awkward 7 footer whose game was not supposed to translate to the NBA, has shown that size translates extremely well.


I don't know about you but the above is quite the CV for a seven footer.



...anyway, wondering how his game will translate is one thing, but saying your money is on him being out of the league after his rookie contract is another, and frankly it is quite the leap of faith.

[RPzB]

I'm saying that when I watched the games he didn't jump out as an NBA talent over everyone else on the 2 teams, but I'm willing to get him the benefit of the doubt because of his production/work ethic/how much people believe in him that he'll rebound at a high level on both ends, and if he can do that in combination with his size and touch around the basket he can turn himself into a 10/10 energy player. Rebounding stats are said to translate the best (from NCAA/Europe to the NBA) so he would be an anamoly if he didn't rebound at 10rpg knowing his numbers now, but anamolies can happen

What do you mean he dint jump out as an NBA talent over everyone else out there? He is NBA player all over him, just look at his length, finishing, coordination. No need to be PRO scout to see this... I dont know where you looking at, while you ''watching'' him play...
Or do you think all the current Euros in the NBA dominated Europe at the time, or were best players out there at least? You think 19 year old should stand out as superior player in Euroleague competitions? Thats insane, that never happens.
He already is the most successful young Euro since Pau. Statistically speaking, he did better job, than Marc Gasol, during his final year in ''Akasvayu''... His Euro stats actually better than Leonards'' NCAA stats. We coming to statistical paradoxes over here already.

What else do you need? What exactly worries you? You think he will be defensive liability going forward? He is very young, his D will get better and as every 19-20 year old kid, he is not anchor yet. Only thing that worries me about his D, is his awkward post D fundamentals... Is his offensive game worries you? He showed his finishing ability against number of NBA players, and IMO he has one of the best touches around the rim in basketball. Is rebounding a problem, cause his rebounding rates are dominant. In comparison, his last year rebound rates were 3x better than Jan Vesely's.

Only thing that worries me is that you are taking this troll seriously.

[Reignman]

hahaha! F4L nailed it. Surprised that so many people are playing this stupid game with Mufasa.

[God Squad]

lol

[God Squad]

Rackin' in the posts I see lol

[Dr Positivity]

I'm saying that when I watched the games he didn't jump out as an NBA talent over everyone else on the 2 teams, but I'm willing to get him the benefit of the doubt because of his production/work ethic/how much people believe in him that he'll rebound at a high level on both ends, and if he can do that in combination with his size and touch around the basket he can turn himself into a 10/10 energy player. Rebounding stats are said to translate the best (from NCAA/Europe to the NBA) so he would be an anamoly if he didn't rebound at 10rpg knowing his numbers now, but anamolies can happen

What do you mean he dint jump out as an NBA talent over everyone else out there? He is NBA player all over him, just look at his length, finishing, coordination. No need to be PRO scout to see this... I dont know where you looking at, while you ''watching'' him play...
Or do you think all the current Euros in the NBA dominated Europe at the time, or were best players out there at least? You think 19 year old should stand out as superior player in Euroleague competitions? Thats insane, that never happens.
He already is the most successful young Euro since Pau. Statistically speaking, he did better job, than Marc Gasol, during his final year in ''Akasvayu''... His Euro stats actually better than Leonards'' NCAA stats. We coming to statistical paradoxes over here already.

What else do you need? What exactly worries you? You think he will be defensive liability going forward? He is very young, his D will get better and as every 19-20 year old kid, he is not anchor yet. Only thing that worries me about his D, is his awkward post D fundamentals... Is his offensive game worries you? He showed his finishing ability against number of NBA players, and IMO he has one of the best touches around the rim in basketball. Is rebounding a problem, cause his rebounding rates are dominant. In comparison, his last year rebound rates were 3x better than Jan Vesely's.

I've said a form of this sentence multiple times in the last 1.5 years but I'll repeat it. I'm not impressed by his physical athleticism, size impact, skill level or basketball IQ/feel for the game from the perspective of how it will work in the NBA. At the end of the day I think 95% of the time those 4 things is what prospect success comes down to. Not just being passable in the areas but actually standing out. Demar Derozan and Ed Davis do not have dynamic ability in any and thus aren't good players. Bargnani has all 3 offensively but 0 of the 3 on the defensive end which is lol. What I saw in Valanciunas who went 1 for 4 vs his peers - he had size, but not an athletic, skill, or bball IQ standing out - I mean that right now, against Euro, LKL competition. He didn't look like he had things his peers didn't in any of those areas. He looked like a tall and wide version of every other Euro C in athleticism/skill/instincts. Basically I'm not sold on any player standing out if he isn't dynamic compared to NBA players in athleticism, skill or instincts (size alone only gets a player so far) and I'm not sure Valanciunas has any of those things against LKL guys. Which means he could very well be actually less than "passable", which is what I don't even look for in a prospect

Alright... I know this is throwing gas into the fire but... I'm looking at Miles Plumlee at Duke who might not get drafted (I personally would take borderline 1st round) and he's a more NBA friendly athlete than Valanciunas, finished around the rim at a high percentage but has no offensive versatility, was one of the best rebounders in college and has weak basketball instincts according to most. He's a good college player who people are out on because of his lack of skill game and NBAish basketball feel for the game. Does this not sound like Valanciunas in athleticism/skill/instincts. Try to tell me what Valanciunas can do differently than Miles that doesn't come down to using raw production and numbers. Yes the obvious counter is that it's taking a big piss on all the people who loved Valanciunas top 5-10 and sayin he's like a late 2nd rd/undrafted player. But we've been here before. Once upon a time I went around this board saying Chase Budinger was more talented than Demar Derozan and would have a better rookie season and people lol'd me off. Budinger was actually a better physical talent than Derozan, had a better skill game (one of the best shooters in the draft, decent with the ball) and had a great basketball IQ. The guy was just flat out more talented than Demar. But he still went 44 to Demar's 9. Everyone thought comparing them was a joke because Demar was a consensus top 10 prospect and Budinger was lucky to go top 20. Demar had his physical talent way overblown and Budinger way underblown and my spider senses say skin color and "how cool they looked" had a lot to do with that to go along with youth. Kemba Walker went 9 vs Isaiah Thomas 60 and Isaiah is honestly a better version of Kemba, that also would've been laughed off if suggested. Chad Ford gets paid more than anyone to talk about the draft and ranked Darko 1 in 03, Okafor 1 in 04, Marvin 1 in 05, Tyrus 1 in 06, Oden 1 in 07, and Beasley 1 in 08. How many times does the "consensus ranking" have to fall on its face before people realize it can't be trusted, because Chad Ford and ESPN cronies are closer to being a contrarian indicator than real judges of talent. My opinion is that there's a large contingent of insiders who put wayyyyy too much emphasis on production vs age as the indicator to trust. To me this is the biggest reason Valanciunas became a draft star. Because statistically he crushed his competition at 16-18. His age, production and being a center was enough to get him the rep. I think Jonathan Givony has such a hard on for Jonas that it was a mini Ford/Darko impact of literally impacting his draft status, by the 2nd most known draft ranker being head over heels for him.

I care less about production than anyone here. I only care about the skillset and the how instead of the what, and nothing about Jonas from the perspective of the how impresses me. When I say Miles Plumlee vs Jonas Valanciunas is pretty close to a draw, just from what I'm seeing right now in talent level, I don't care if it's a million miles and 100 Restaurants At the Other End of the Universe away from what is the consensus opinion. The only thing I can trust is my own evaluation and instincts. Besides there's no art or fun to this if someone doesn't do that. If you're too afraid to make your own opinions, what's the point? Am I 100% certain that they'll end up similar players. No. But see the sig. Anybody who is certain about anything in pro sports, especially a draft, needs to do a double take. The most popular prospect here last season if we didn't get Irving/Williams was Kemba Walker. Hands down. So much for that. If we got #2 it would've been considered an act worthy of banning to suggest taking anyone but Williams. So much for that. All of RealGM had a collective lol at the Minnesota Timberwolves for their draft day trade of Mayo for Love. So much for that. One time a poster I won't name tried to personally insult my credibility by finding a post from years back where I was fine with Thabeet's draft ranking, and I found one where he said Luke Babbit would be a sick pick for us at 13 in 2010. That's pretty much how I feel about the types that act like the person making a draft post matters more than their actual post. The people who act like they're not dead wrong about at least 5 prospects every year are lieing or only talked about enough prospects to count on one hand.

[fredericklove]

idk if I'm reading this right, but did I just see a Miles Plumlee and Val comparison?

[HSOB SIRHC]

When you're looking at Miles Plumlee and how he plays, you do realize he's going up against kids his own age right? If you want to compare JoVa to Plumlee, then look at how dominate JoVa was in the U19 games. And did you just say Demar and Davis are bad players? I'm sorry but it's mind boggling how you've totally convinced yourself that you're a great evaluator.

[dagger]

The most popular prospect here last season if we didn't get Irving/Williams was Kemba Walker.

I beg your pardon! What planet were you on in the weeks leading up to the draft? I'd say Brandon Knight had a bigger following here for most of June, as did Bismack Biyombo.

But don't let me stop you from digging a deeper hole for yourself.

[ATLTimekeeper]

I know people want to hear it but I wouldn't bet any of my personal money on Valanciunas being in the NBA after his rookie contract. I'm not saying I'd predict that happens just that I wouldn't feel good about my money being on the line in that scenario. Just MO, feel free to hate.

I won't hate on this comment, but I'll point out how unlikely it is and maybe it'll inspire you to do some more research.

Since 1990 there have been only 3 centers drafted in the top 10 that haven't made it past 5 seasons. And none taken in the top 5. So, you're basically putting him in the same crop as Hoffa, Sene and POB. My rough count is 42 centers taken in that time (I didn't include anyone still under a rookie deal). So about 7% of all centers taken in the top 10 in that time frame have made it fewer than 5 seasons.

Here's another list of top 10 centers "busts" that lasted more than 5 years in the league:

Kwame Brown (11 and counting) , Michael Olowokandi (9), Darko Milicic (9 and counting), Shawn Bradley (11), Sheldon Williams (6 and counting), Bryant Reeves (7), Adonal Foyle (12), Chris Mihm (8), Sagana Diop (11 and counting), Felton Spencer (12), Tony Battie (14).

So even if he's a bust pick, the average career length is 10 years. If you factor in the superbusts, the average career length is 8.6. What were you basing your opinion off of?

Is 7% supposed to be convincing as some sort of "It can't happen" type of number? Thabeet and Skita (not a C really but still 7 foot Euro) being included would also raise that number. I'm sure the %s for lotto picked SFs is around 90-95%+ as well. Didn't help Ammo and Joe Alexander, or Wes Johnson if he continues to look like this. For PGs it's likely around 90-95% and Jonny Flynn looks like out of the NBA soon. Just because things don't happen often doesn't mean they won't

But let's say your 7% number is right. 2011 lotto had 3 Cs (Kanter, Valanciunas, Biyombo) and we know Kanter and Biyombo are NBA players. If you multiply 93% * 93% * 93%, you get 80.4% chance of what I'll call "3 for 3 non stiffy" with those Cs. If the number is 10% all out bust potential each (justification: all 3 players were extremely young internationals), 90% * 90% * 90% is 72.4%. But are we sure these numbers are right? What if the bust factor for extremely young, international Cs like Kanter/Biyombo/Valanciunas in a draft where the lack of talent made GMs desperate for a young center, something like 18%. I did 82% * 82% * 82% and I got 55.1%.

Now imagine Vucevic got picked 14th instead of 16th., for all intents and purposes a meaningless gap considering last year was considered to have the best 15-30 type of talent in years (as steals like Faried, Leonard, Shumpert, Brooks, etc.), in combination with a very weak mid to late lotto historically. With the 7% number the chances of the draft going 4 for 4 in NBA talent is 74.8%, and with 10%, is 65.6%. With 18%, it's 45.2%.

Are you still convinced by that number?

The argument against Valanciunas flopping isn't numbers. There have easily been enough lottery picks who ended up literally non NBA players, to say it's WELL within the realm of reason, especially for a skinny international 18 yr old C (he's not skinny now, but at the time). There's a non NBA lottery picked player almost every draft and all the teams who took them could've written it off as impossible using the stats you just did, but someone had to draw the short straw. The argument for Valanciunas is proving he has enough talent to have a floor that high. Like I said I'm not going to get on my high horse and say people are wrong - I've actually gone out on a limb multiple occasions to say my PREDICTION is an Anderson Varejao type of career as a semi limited 10/10 hustle big. Just that the guy doesn't jump out as an NBA player to me compared to his Lithuanian competition and for that reason I wouldn't feel confident saying he is one

I pointed out that centers drafted top 10 average about 8.6 years in the league. You stated that you wouldn't feel comfortable putting down money on the fact that he'd still be in the league after his rookie deal. I also pointed out that about 3 out of roughly 42 centers didn't make it past 5 years in the league. Adding Thabeet or Skita to that list isn't going to make your claim any more valid. The odds do matter, because you went and said something outlandish without much knowledge of the how much GMs value 5s and how many chances they're given to succeed.

Here's a list of International players drafted in the top 10 along with how long they've played in the NBA. These are all guys who have had a chance to be re-upped.

Dirk Nowitzki (14)
Pau Gasol (10 and counting)
Yao Ming (7)
Skita (5)
Nene (10 and counting)
Darko (9 and counting)
Bargnani (6 and counting)
Sene (4)
Jianlian (5 and counting)
Gallinari (3 and counting)

So two, possibly three guys out of ten aren't NBA players. And only one was a C. That's a pretty good success rate. Again, you would be comparing Valanciunas, who has already proven himself in the toughest competition outside of the NBA, to Skita, Sene and Jianlian.

Here's a list of skinny bigs drafted in the top ten in that time frame.

Dikembe Mutombo
Shawn Bradley
Joe Smith
Kevin Garnett
Marcus Camby
Lorenzen Wright
Dirk Nowitzki
Jonathan Bender
Stromile Swift
Tyson Chandler
Pau Gasol
Eddie Griffin
Skita
Darko
Chris Bosh
Andrea Bargnani
Sene
Yi Jianlian
Brandon Wright
Joakim Noah

I think only about 4 out of those guys didn't make it past their rookie deal.

You just don't have much evidence to support your claim, other than your eye test and need to feel controversial.

[xprt]

When you're looking at Miles Plumlee and how he plays, you do realize he's going up against kids his own age right? If you want to compare JoVa to Plumlee, then look at how dominate JoVa was in the U19 games. And did you just say Demar and Davis are bad players? I'm sorry but it's mind boggling how you've totally convinced yourself that you're a great evaluator.

Not to mention Pumlee is almost 24 years old. As 20 years old he was averaging 2 ppg for duke. Jonas as 19 years old had double digits games against guys like Krstic/ Ibaka/ Kaman/ Brother Gasols. Talk about comparition lol. Looking how Jonas b**tch Leonard averages 13/8 in NCAA I bet Jonas would rip apart those kids in NCAA.
edit: And stop with this bs that Jonas doesnt have NBA athletism he is easily above average athlete for big man
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J5tZEO72fMw[/youtube]