Jays Run Differential on MLB Network, Video

Hamyltowne · Post #1 » by **Hamyltowne** » Wed May 23, 2012 6:43 am

The Jays have the best run differential in the AL East. It's tied for fourth best in the major leagues. Brian Kenny, of MLB Network, takes a look at how much arse the Blue Jays are kicking.

A terrific program, I tell you. If you like sabermetrics, check out the Clubhouse Confidential clips in the Video section of MLB.com

Raptor_Guy · Post #2 » by **Raptor_Guy** » Wed May 23, 2012 12:27 pm

It makes considering most of our losses are by 1 or 2 runs and a lot of our wins are blowouts.

whysoserious · Post #3 » by **whysoserious** » Wed May 23, 2012 12:29 pm

That's pretty telling and if not for our Bullpen blowing games, we'd be right there with the O's leading the division if not ahead.

Michael Bradley · Post #4 » by **Michael Bradley** » Wed May 23, 2012 1:02 pm

After the JP Ricciardi's years, I'm surprised anyone gets excited about run differential anymore. The Jays always seem to do well in that area but it never shows up in their record as they always fall into the 81-87 win range regardless. No more moral victories.

RapsFanInVA · Post #5 » by **RapsFanInVA** » Wed May 23, 2012 2:20 pm

Michael Bradley wrote:After the JP Ricciardi's years, I'm surprised anyone gets excited about run differential anymore. The Jays always seem to do well in that area but it never shows up in their record as they always fall into the 81-87 win range regardless. No more moral victories.

Exactly. If the standings were determined by Pythagorean Win % instead of Actual Win %, we'd be in business.

Tyrone Slothrop · Post #6 » by **Tyrone Slothrop** » Wed May 23, 2012 4:15 pm

Michael Bradley wrote:After the JP Ricciardi's years, I'm surprised anyone gets excited about run differential anymore. The Jays always seem to do well in that area but it never shows up in their record as they always fall into the 81-87 win range regardless. No more moral victories.

It's not something to get excited about at the end of the season, obviously, but early in the season it's a much better indicator of future success than a team's record.

Avenger · Post #7 » by **Avenger** » Wed May 23, 2012 4:21 pm

RapsFanInVA wrote:
Michael Bradley wrote:After the JP Ricciardi's years, I'm surprised anyone gets excited about run differential anymore. The Jays always seem to do well in that area but it never shows up in their record as they always fall into the 81-87 win range regardless. No more moral victories.

Exactly. If the standings were determined by Pythagorean Win % instead of Actual Win %, we'd be in business.

They are in business, they are 2 games behind, 1.5 games ahead, 2.5 games ahead and 5 games ahead of the 4 teams they should actually be worried about.

Anyways its foolish to dismiss run differential completely because of what may have happened with a completely different roster 4-5 years ago. But if you also look at things like WAR and xFIP its hard to come to the conclusion that they're been unlucky.

Hamyltowne · Post #8 » by **Hamyltowne** » Thu May 24, 2012 5:48 am

Avenger wrote:Anyways its foolish to dismiss run differential completely because of what may have happened with a completely different roster 4-5 years ago.

I'm surprised, myself, at the skepticism.

If y'all want game logs and are ready to pore over each one, have at it. Start a thread.

The run differential is a good measure. It doesn't tell you everything, but it does gather all the runs into one tidy heap and shows you the difference, plus or minus.

Just a few nights ago, in one of the series threads, I think Schad or Tyrone posted our run diff. as being just a few shy of the other four AL East teams' combined run diff.

RapsFanInVA · Post #9 » by **RapsFanInVA** » Thu May 24, 2012 4:00 pm

According to our run differential we should be 26-19. In reality, we are 24-21. Are you guys saying this is helpful because it shows we are a better team than our record indicates? To me, it just shows that we lose a lot of close games while winning some by a large margin. I don't see the usefulness of this.

Hamyltowne · Post #10 » by **Hamyltowne** » Fri May 25, 2012 2:52 am

RapsFanInVA wrote:According to our run differential we should be 26-19. In reality, we are 24-21. Are you guys saying this is helpful because it shows we are a better team than our record indicates? To me, it just shows that we lose a lot of close games while winning some by a large margin. I don't see the usefulness of this.

It's useful to know that there are not many other teams for whom that can be said. At least not to our degree; our difference is top 5 in MLB. It gives hope and promise to a 162-game season, more than a hundred of which are still to be played.

RapsFanInVA · Post #11 » by **RapsFanInVA** » Fri May 25, 2012 3:26 pm

Hamyltowne wrote:
RapsFanInVA wrote:According to our run differential we should be 26-19. In reality, we are 24-21. Are you guys saying this is helpful because it shows we are a better team than our record indicates? To me, it just shows that we lose a lot of close games while winning some by a large margin. I don't see the usefulness of this.

It's useful to know that there are not many other teams for whom that can be said. At least not to our degree; our difference is top 5 in MLB. It gives hope and promise to a 162-game season, more than a hundred of which are still to be played.

As long as blowing 7 out of 14 saves is a fluke and not a trend, then I see reason for hope. But if we continue blowing half of our saves because of bullpen sucks, I don't see us catching up to our expected win %.

Hamyltowne · Post #12 » by **Hamyltowne** » Sat May 26, 2012 3:10 am

RapsFanInVA wrote:But if we continue blowing half of our saves because of bullpen sucks, I don't see us catching up to our expected win %.

You're probably right.

freamon · Post #13 » by **freamon** » Sat May 26, 2012 7:14 pm

Last night not so good for the ol' run differential.