Jonas Valanciunas Summer Discussion Thread (Olympics!)

[ATLTimekeeper]

His athleticism is above average for an NBA starting center. Here's some starting centers that are more athletic than him, maybe you can add to the list but you're be hard pressed to find 15:

Biyombo
Noah
Chandler
Howard
Bynum
McGee
Jordan
Nene
Maybe Horford

He's definitely not below average. How many of those centers can hit a jump shot? Two? Three? How many have an effective hook off both blocks? Three? Four? How many can hit free throws over 80 percent? None. How many can hit free throws above 65%? 5. How many have shown a face up game? Three? Four? How many of those guys are over 6"11? Three? Four? How many of those guys regularly face double teams? Four? Among the athletes, he has an advantage of skill and length.

[hankscorpioLA]

You think Howard is great at the pick and roll because of his technique?

Howard is great at the pick and roll?

News to me.

[jonny three time]

You think Howard is great at the pick and roll because of his technique?

Howard is great at the pick and roll?

News to me.

I'll say it again. The Orlando Magic made it to the finals with their primary offensive play being a Howard/Hedo pick and roll. Maybe you guys weren't into basketball back then, but it happened.

Orlando's main failing is that they never found a better guy to run it with him than Hedo. They kept trading for one-on-one guys like Vince, Arenas and J-rich rather than going after a true PG. That, more than Howard's own attitude, is why they're in their current position.

[UcanUwill]

He had his best pnr season as 18 years old 225 lbs guy going against 30-50 lbs heavier C's. If he could do then I don't see how he can't do a few years later with 30 lbs added to his frame.

Good observation.

Pick and roll game is where awareness and physical tools meets. And sometimes it is hard to tell which is which. Jonas is a good athlete for a pick and roll game, thats why he is good at it in the first place. He has great first step and good lateral quickness. Thats why he breaks pick and roll defenses early on. He is coordinated and has soft hands, it allows him to catch the ball. And he has freakish wingspan to finish the play.
He is not even that weak, and he is not gonna be 19 all his life. Remember yourself 19? talking about famalish figure, not build body. And NBA is not American gladiators, you cant just tackle a guy. It is physical game, but thats not what pick and roll is all about.

Just look at those 2 plays. He gets his pick and roll points with ease, with no extra physical play. He does it against this France lineup with 4 NBA players : J. Noah / B. Diaw / N. Barum / N. DeColo / T. Parker
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XXq2iQwuurY&t=4m50s

I have a suggestion.

Why don't we all take a deep breath and wait to see how Jonas plays in the Olympic qualifying tournament and (assuming Lithuania gets in) at the Olympics.

IMHO, that is going to give us the first real clear sense of what kind of player he is going to start his NBA career as.

Just a discussing, thats what forums are all about, chill out. It's presumptions, we know.

[dagger]

I'd add this. If you take a look at pictures of most bigs when they entered the league at 19 or 20, they almost all were scrawnier than they are today after 2, 3, 5, 7 years of working on their bodies. Even Chris Bosh, who was problematic to add a lot of weight/muscle/strength with his type of frame, did add 20 pounds or so and in his final Raptor year, he had bulked up to almost beast level and was having his best season yet when he hurt his ankle just after the all-star break.

Playing for Lithuania may stretch out Jonas' physical development by a year or two, but I have a hard time thinking he won't put on mass, muscle and strength while under professional supervision. Go back and look at photos of Marcus Camby as a rookie, as a Knick, and as a Nugget or Blazer. Even in a twig like him, there is noticeable evolution from downright scrawny to fairly well chiseled. And I'm sure it helped him develop into a DPOY.

So if you are going to look at Jonas phyiscally, playing against men rather than college boys, you have to make a reasonable (low-risk) assumption that he will mimic 99 out of 100 other NBA big man and develop physically as he moves into his low 20s. And that will have a significant bearing on the development of his game, especially his post O and D.

[theonlyeastcoastrapsfan]

Howard is good at pick and roll becasue defender don't leave him and he attracts a lot of attention. For the same reason, he may rarely be in a position to catch clean and finish. In Orlando, you guard Dwight and take your chances with the Outside shot from Anderson, Reddick or Richardson. In Toronto, you stay up with Bargnani and take your chances with Amir.

Now, that's not becasue Barg's is so much better than Anderson, but more Dwight is that much better than Amir.

[raptor21_85]

Is it safe to say Jonas will be DeANdre Jordan with a better midrange shot in his rookie year?

[xprt]

Is it safe to say Jonas will be DeANdre Jordan with a better midrange shot in his rookie year?

Better midrange shot? Deandre's first points outside paint came in his 4th year in league and no I am not kidding.

[Al_Oliver]

Can I just say that I think its amazing that we have so many NBA-level scouts on this board.

Wait...what?

You mean....these people making very specific and nuanced assessments of Jonas' game and how it will translate to the NBA have absolutely no experience in this area?

Huh....who knew?


I have a suggestion.

Why don't we all take a deep breath and wait to see how Jonas plays in the Olympic qualifying tournament and (assuming Lithuania gets in) at the Olympics.

IMHO, that is going to give us the first real clear sense of what kind of player he is going to start his NBA career as.

give it up for... logic! well said

[hankscorpioLA]

Just a discussing, thats what forums are all about, chill out. It's presumptions, we know.

Discussion is one thing.

Trying to make it sound like you are an NBA-level scout in order to validate your own opinions is something else.

[raptor21_85]

Howard is good at pick and roll becasue defender don't leave him and he attracts a lot of attention. For the same reason, he may rarely be in a position to catch clean and finish. In Orlando, you guard Dwight and take your chances with the Outside shot from Anderson, Reddick or Richardson. In Toronto, you stay up with Bargnani and take your chances with Amir.

Now, that's not becasue Barg's is so much better than Anderson, but more Dwight is that much better than Amir.

i dont understand your point at all..

[theonlyeastcoastrapsfan]

Howard is good at pick and roll becasue defender don't leave him and he attracts a lot of attention. For the same reason, he may rarely be in a position to catch clean and finish. In Orlando, you guard Dwight and take your chances with the Outside shot from Anderson, Reddick or Richardson. In Toronto, you stay up with Bargnani and take your chances with Amir.

Now, that's not becasue Barg's is so much better than Anderson, but more Dwight is that much better than Amir.

i dont understand your point at all..

Just that there's more to being good in PnR than finishing often and keeping the ball high. There's also attracting the attention of the defense. Howard get's the attention of the defense, so he's good in pick and roll. Amir finishes pick and roll's a lot, but doesn't get as much attention from defenses. It has nothing to do with Jonas, but rather I'd noted Hank say it was news to him that Howard was good in pick and rolls, and I believe he is very good in pick and rolls, as the action creates great looks for his teammates.

[Mister Ze]

How many minutes do you guys think Jonas gets next season? Is Casey going to give him the rookie treatment or is he going to play heavy minutes since he's the only true center on the team (besides Aaron Gray)

[theonlyeastcoastrapsfan]

Gray's not necessarily on the roster next year.

[Mister Ze]

Gray's not necessarily on the roster next year.

Yes but a lot of posters have said he's likely to be re-signed.

[hankscorpioLA]

You think Howard is great at the pick and roll because of his technique?

Howard is great at the pick and roll?

News to me.

I'll say it again. The Orlando Magic made it to the finals with their primary offensive play being a Howard/Hedo pick and roll. Maybe you guys weren't into basketball back then, but it happened.

Interesting that you would criticize others for "not being into basketball back then" when your analysis completely ignores Rashard Lewis and the importance of the three point shot to the Magic success in 2008-09.

First of all, lets be clear - the pick and roll is the most common play in basketball. Just because teams run it doesn't mean the players are necessarily great at it.

But more importantly, the Magic didn't win that year because Howard is especially good at running the pick and roll. They won that year because they got exceptional three point shooting from Rashard Lewis, Jameer Nelson, and Hedo Turkoglu. That created space for Howard to operate in the post because opponents would easily get burned if they collapsed into the paint to defend him.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/ORL/2009.html

A few points to note:

Dwight Howard had fewer FGA than either Rashard Lewis or Hedo Turkoglu.

Combined, Lewis and Hedo took almost as many three pointers as Howard had field goal attempts.

Almost one third of the Magic's field goals were three pointers and they shot 38% from 3 as a team.

Again, what made the Magic successful in 2008-09 is NOT that Dwight Howard is a good pick and roll player. What made them successful that year is that they had exceptional three point shooting.

Howard has never been a great pick and roll player and he never will be because of his inability to hit a shot outside of 10 feet.

[theonlyeastcoastrapsfan]

How did those 3 pt shooters get so open? I think it had a lot to do with defenders shading Dwight.

And why would Howard need to shoot from > 10ft when rolling? They "roll" to the rim don't they? they "pop" for the jumper.

[RPzB]

Jonas giving away this very same jersey for charity auction. So you can try and aquire it, and ofc sell it if/when he is going to become a star player in the NBA or give it to Mufasa if Jonas turns out to be a bust so that he can feel good about himself.

[raptor21_85]

so, do we expect Jonas to attract defenders as Howard?

[God Squad]

so, do we expect Jonas to attract defenders as Howard?

Eventually if he earns it.